The Cattle Market Guys Podcast

CATTLE MARKET GUYS - PODCAST SCRIPT ======================================== Generated: 2026-01-27T14:20:00.961Z Episode Type: tuesday_update Episode Title: Tuesday Market Update Episode Date: January 27, 2026 ======================================== SCRIPT STATISTICS ======================================== Total Words: 1723 Estimated Duration: 11.5 minutes Brock: - Words: 1401 (81.3%) - Speaking Time: ~9.3 minutes Jim: - Words: 322 (18.7%) - Speaking Time: ~2.1 minutes ======================================== FULL SCRIPT ======================================== Brock: It's Tuesday, January 27th, and you're listening to Cattle Market Guys—your go-to for market trends, data insights, and a little cowboy wisdom to keep things moving. <break time="0.5s"/> I'm Brock, and joining me as always is the man who knows more about cattle than a spreadsheet ever will—Jim from West Texas. Let's dive into what's moving the markets this week. Looking at the numbers from last week, we saw another round of heavy volume moving through the auctions. Medium and large-frame Number One steers in the five to five-forty-nine-pound weight class averaged out at four hundred thirty-nine dollars and ninety-eight cents per hundredweight. That's a slight drop from the previous week's average of four hundred forty-three dollars and sixty-seven cents, but still solid given where futures are trading. <break time="0.3s"/> When we shift our attention up a weight class to the six hundred to six-forty-nine group, those steers traded at an average of three hundred ninety dollars and seventy-eight cents per hundredweight. That's also a bit lower than last week's four hundred three dollars and twenty-three cents average, continuing a short-term downward trend in that class. Now, the futures side is where the weather-driven volatility is really showing its cards. <break time="0.4s"/> Front-month feeder cattle futures are sitting at three hundred sixty-two dollars and forty-two cents, with next-month contracts trailing just behind at three hundred fifty-seven dollars and forty-nine cents. That spread has tightened a bit over the past two weeks, but still suggests mild caution from the market. According to one article out this morning from CME, this price action is being influenced in large part by the approaching winter storm. The article mentions that futures lifted slightly as traders brace for supply disruptions. But just a few days ago, traders were more cautious and pricing in concerns over demand impacts instead. <break time="0.3s"/> So we're seeing classic weather-induced market confusion right now. Jim, you've watched price reactions like this unfold over the decades—what's your gut telling you? Jim: Markets get jumpy when old man winter rolls in with a vengeance. I've seen prices fall faster than a greased calf at branding time when folks realize demand's frozen too. Brock: That's exactly what we're seeing play out right now. <break time="0.5s"/> This major winter storm system sweeping across multiple regions is throwing everything into chaos. According to a report from Cattle Range published this morning titled "Arctic Blast and Cattle on Feed," cattle producers from the Plains to the Midwest are facing severe operating challenges. Between bitter cold, snow accumulation, and widespread ice, it's not just transportation getting hit—daily management is being severely disrupted. The CME article from today points out that feeder cattle futures climbed on expectations of constrained supply. Basically, packers and backgrounders are anticipating there will be fewer cattle making it to the sale barn or feedyard over the next week. That's especially true for the plains, where cold temperatures and wind are making trailer transport a serious risk. But here's what's interesting—and this is key—a different CME story from just three days ago offered the flip side. <break time="0.4s"/> That article framed the storm more as a demand issue, saying that harsh conditions could reduce beef movement and retail consumption. So we've got both supply and demand variables pulling this market in different directions, depending on how long the storm lingers. Looking ahead, the forecast is calling for persistent cold through at least the middle of next week. That could mean ongoing market volatility, and I'd urge producers to monitor local transportation conditions closely. This isn't just about price opportunity—it's about cattle welfare and logistics. <break time="0.3s"/> Jim, I know you've got a storm story from your early days that stuck with you. Jim: <break time="0.4s"/> Back in '89, we had one of the nastiest winter storms I'd ever seen hit West Texas and the Oklahoma panhandle. The wind chill was thirty below, and I'd moved all my cows into the best draw I had—still lost four of my top producing girls to that cold. The Amarillo auction shut down for three whole days because nobody could get anything in or out. When they finally reopened, buyers were scrambling to lock in what they could, and prices jumped almost fifteen cents a pound overnight. Mother Nature can change the market quicker than any trader up in Chicago ever could. Brock: Wow. That story drives home exactly what we're watching right now—weather is one of the few things that can tighten supply and shift sentiment almost immediately. For producers listening, I'd say focus on animal safety first. Markets will find a way to settle out, but losing cattle to exposure isn't something any of us want to deal with, financially or emotionally. Now, while the weather is dominating headlines, there's another major shift happening beneath the surface that we need to talk about—cattle inventory dynamics. <break time="0.5s"/> The latest USDA report released over the weekend gives us a lot to unpack. Total cattle on feed as of January first came in at eleven-point-five million head. That's a three percent drop from last year at this time. Breaking that down further, steer and steer calf placements totaled seven-point-oh-two million head, also reflecting a three percent year-over-year decline. This tells us a couple things. First, that calf supplies are tightening. Fewer cattle are in the pipeline, and that creates a bullish undertone for prices if demand remains stable. <break time="0.3s"/> Second, we've seen above-average heifer numbers placed in feedlots, suggesting that heifer retention remains limited. That's consistent with what we saw in 2025, when drought and high feed costs discouraged herd rebuilding. From a market standpoint, this balance points to potential upward pressure on feeder prices in the medium term—especially if the weather-induced supply delays stretch out through February. But on the flip side, long-term beef production could decline slightly if the herd doesn't begin to rebuild by this spring. <break time="0.3s"/> That retention trend, or lack of it, seems like something you've seen before, right Jim? Jim: Oh sure. Anytime you've got more heifers going to the yard than back to the pasture, it means we're in stretch-thin mode. Back in dry years like 2011 or '96, we'd cull hard and just hold on till grass showed up. But if we don't flip that switch soon, it bites the whole chain later. Brock: Exactly right. Without retention, the herd gets older and tighter, and slaughter weights eventually drop. That affects everyone in the supply chain—from cow-calf to packer. It's a slow-moving shift, but once it starts, it takes years to reverse. Producers should keep an eye on upcoming moisture reports and regional drought maps. If spring looks dry again, we may see another round of heavy heifer placements and delay any talk of national herd growth. Now let's shift gears to something that doesn't get nearly enough attention until it's too late—animal health. <break time="0.5s"/> Even with markets moving and weather rolling in, producers can't afford to overlook their biggest long-term investment, and that's herd health. Two new reports out this week highlight major movement in this space. First, researchers at the Dairy X Beef Summit unveiled data showing that pre-weaning scours in beef-on-dairy calves can lead to a twenty-one-pound weaning weight penalty. That's no small hit, especially considering the volume of beef-dairy crosses moving through the system right now. What's more alarming is the fact that affected calves also showed reduced starter intake and higher mortality rates. <break time="0.3s"/> Bottom line—ignoring a few diarrhea cases early on might be costing producers more than they realize when it comes to final performance. On the positive side, Elanco just announced a new line of injectable disease prevention products—the first new antibiotic approvals in over a decade. These are targeted at both preventative and early-intervention protocols, giving vets and producers an updated toolset for managing herd health. The timing is worth noting. Just as we face more variable weather, tighter labor on ranches, and rising replacement costs, a new line of health tools could provide good ROI—if used proactively. <break time="0.4s"/> Jim, I know you've seen what happens when folks cut corners on health programs. Ever had a season where that bit you hard? Jim: <break time="0.4s"/> In '95, we had what I'd call a nightmare fall. Respiratory bug ripped through the feedlots around here like a prairie fire. I'd just shipped 200 head to a yard near Amarillo—young steers, healthy as could be. Within a week, I'd lost a dozen. The vet was out there near daily, but nothing was working until this new antibiotic came out. Cost me a month's steak budget, but I'd have paid double. Saving a dollar on prevention'll cost you ten in treatment—and another twenty in sleep. Brock: Hold on, that's the lesson right there. And going forward, producers should ask some hard questions heading into the spring—are your vaccine protocols current? Are your calf health targets realistic? And are you budgeting for prevention, not just reacting when sickness shows up? <break time="0.3s"/> With tighter margins and volatile weather, being proactive about animal health isn't just good management, it's survival strategy. Alright, let's bring this thing home. <break time="0.5s"/> We covered a lot of ground today, so here's the quick recap. Feeder prices dipped slightly last week, though they remain strong historically. Futures are swinging on weather forecasts, so expect more turbulence in the short term. The winter storm is throttling both supply and demand expectations—focus on livestock safety first, because markets can wait but cows can't. Cattle on feed is down three percent year-over-year, with lower steer numbers and high heifer placements. That signals tighter calf supply and delayed herd expansion. And on the health side, keep your protocols sharp. New research and new antibiotics are tools meant to be used, not admired from a catalog. <break time="0.3s"/> Jim, anything else you want to add? Jim: Just this—storms'll pass, but poor planning sticks around. And remember folks, neglecting cattle health is like skipping oil changes on a combine. Might run for a while… until it doesn't. Brock: Well said, partner. That does it for today's Tuesday Market Update. Be sure to subscribe if you haven't already, and stay safe out there—on the road, on the ranch, and in the markets. See ya next time on Cattle Market Guys. Jim: Watch that frost line—and don't forget, your cattle can't read the futures board either. Brock: Take care, everyone. ======================================== END OF SCRIPT ========================================

CATTLE MARKET GUYS - PODCAST SCRIPT ======================================== Generated: 2026-01-23T14:16:21.188Z Episode Type: friday_wrap Episode Title: Week in Review Episode Date: January 23, 2026 ======================================== SCRIPT STATISTICS ======================================== Total Words: 1967 Estimated Duration: 13.1 minutes Brock: - Words: 1585 (80.6%) - Speaking Time: ~10.6 minutes Jim: - Words: 382 (19.4%) - Speaking Time: ~2.5 minutes ======================================== FULL SCRIPT ======================================== Brock: Well folks, it's Friday, January twenty-third, and you're tuned into Cattle Market Guys—where we sift through the data, talk through the dust, and get to the bottom of what matters most to cattle producers this week. <break time="0.5s"/> I'm Brock, here with the numbers and the analytics... Jim: And I'm Jim, here to make sure Brock don't get lost in a spreadsheet. Brock: Ha! Appreciate the safety rail, Jim. <break time="0.3s"/> Let's get right to it. In our latest market snapshot, we've seen a strong showing across the board for steer calves, especially in the five- to six-hundred forty-nine weight classes. Looking at the data ending January twenty-third, steers between five hundred and five forty-nine pounds are bringing in an average of four hundred forty-two dollars and twenty-nine cents per hundredweight. That's up slightly from last week's four hundred thirty-eight dollars and sixty-six cents. Now, the six hundred to six forty-nine class is also holding strong at three hundred ninety-eight dollars and ninety cents per hundredweight, up just over a buck from last week's three ninety-seven and change. <break time="0.4s"/> We've had heavy volume in both classes too—over nineteen thousand head sold in the six-weight class, and more than sixty-five hundred in the five-weights. That kind of volume confirms there's solid demand under these prices. Jim, what's your take on this kind of movement? Jim: Them calves are moving quicker than a greased pig at a church picnic. Brock: That's one way to put it. <break time="0.3s"/> Looking ahead, the forecast models suggest continued strength—though with a slight pullback. For five-weight steers, the national prediction for the next week is four hundred thirty-three dollars and seventeen cents per hundredweight. And for the six-weights, it's four hundred thirteen dollars and thirteen cents. So technically, both are forecast to ease slightly but stay within that high-performing band we've seen since mid-December. <break time="0.4s"/> Here's where it gets interesting though. Keep in mind, the futures market tells a more cautious story. The front-month cattle futures are sitting around three hundred sixty-three dollars and twenty-five cents, and next month's at three fifty-eight and eight cents. That's a pretty noticeable gap—about seventy-five to eighty bucks behind the cash calf market. <break time="0.3s"/> You've seen this disconnect before... Jim: Back in the day we used to call that "feeding hope and hedging reality." Brock: Couldn't have said it better. There's a lot of optimism priced into feeder calves right now, but caution when looking down the calendar. <break time="0.5s"/> Alright, let's dive into our deep-dive segments. First up today—the New World Screwworm. Or more correctly, the rumor of it. Now, earlier this week, markets took a sharp dip based on unfounded claims about New World Screwworm being found in Texas. Social media and a few unverified reports lit the match, and cattle prices caught fire—in the wrong direction. It spooked the market enough that the USDA's APHIS had to step in and issue a formal statement: there is no screwworm outbreak on U.S. soil. <break time="0.4s"/> According to Beef Magazine, there were sharp losses across live cattle and feeder futures early in the week. But once the USDA released that clarification, markets snapped back. CME now reports recovery activity in futures as the fears have started to fade. The article noted that with the screwworm concern addressed, beef futures began to firm up again. <break time="0.3s"/> The key takeaway here is how rapidly market sentiment can shift based purely on rumors. Does that match what you're seeing in your memory bank? Jim: Hold on, Brock—this ain't the first time panic got ahead of facts. <break time="0.4s"/> I remember clear as day back in ninety-one, when we had that dust-up over supposed TB down in the El Paso area. I was fixin' to ship three hundred head of feeders outta Amarillo when the phones started ringing off the hook—folks saying there were positive TB cases down south. Market sank twelve bucks in two days, just on gossip. Turns out, it was a false positive reading. Took a crew of USDA inspectors flyin' in from Washington to calm us all down. We ended up holding the cattle an extra week—burned a little more feed, but we didn't sell into the panic. Saved us a nice chunk of change. Brock: Wow. That's a great example, Jim. It really demonstrates the broader lesson here: knee-jerk selling rarely does producers any good when the panic's based on bad info. <break time="0.3s"/> From the current incident this week, we also saw how critical it is for agencies like USDA to move fast with clear communication. That response likely helped avoid further damage. And now, with the USDA also launching their "New World Screwworm Grand Challenge" program this week, they seem to be aiming to get ahead of future speculation. That initiative's focused on improving detection, rapid-response protocols, and public awareness. <break time="0.4s"/> So in the long run, this rumor flare-up might actually prompt better disease preparedness across the industry. The timing's not coincidental—USDA clearly wants to rebuild confidence and build systems that prevent this kind of market chaos next time around. Jim: Yeah, but next time someone hollers screwworm, make sure it ain't just a bored vet lookin' at a belly rash. Brock: Let's hope. It's a reminder to pause, gather facts, and not dump cattle on a rumor. <break time="0.5s"/> Alright, shifting gears for our second segment—weather impact. This week, weather has once again become a significant force in cattle marketing decisions, especially across the Midwest and Southern Plains. According to cattle report outlets, snowfall totals of up to one foot are forecast in parts of Iowa, Missouri, and Nebraska. Temperatures have plunged, and that has a direct effect on cattle performance—especially for calves outdoors or in less sheltered setups. <break time="0.4s"/> There's a report of one group sold in Iowa this week that went for two hundred thirty-two dollars per head. That's not terrible, but well below the kind of premium pricing we've been discussing—likely due to weather-related shrink and condition. Jim: I saw that storm rolling in on the radar and told my neighbor, "Hope you got more hay than hope, 'cause the wind don't feed calves." Brock: That's the reality. <break time="0.3s"/> Cold stress and snow cover not only impact feed efficiency and gains but also complicate transportation and logistics. Fewer head get shipped. Barn space runs thin. Calf mortality, especially in newborns, jumps when hypothermia sets in—which, by the way, is a real concern right now in Oklahoma and Kansas. There's a winter storm warning issued for large parts of those regions, according to Cattle Range. <break time="0.4s"/> So what's the takeaway? <break time="0.3s"/> One, producers should think hard about timing their marketings. It might pay to delay for a warmer week if conditions are harsh. Two, if you've got cattle close to calving, now's not the time to cut corners on bedding or shelter. And three, you might see some dips in top-end prices—not necessarily due to market weakness, but because of weather's effect on cattle condition. We've got to separate fundamental demand from temporary condition discounts, and right now, weather's driving some of that spread. Jim: You know, cold snaps like this'll decide if you're raisin' calves or just feedin' potential. Brock: Well put. And the data backs it up—harsh weather lowers average daily gain, and sometimes the market discounts even the appearance of it. If you can shelter or delay until cattle look stronger, you'll likely make up the difference. <break time="0.5s"/> Now let's move to our third and final deep-dive—and that's international trade. There's been significant movement globally this week that American producers should be watching. First off, China officially lifted its ban on Canadian beef imports. That ban's been in place since 2021 following a BSE detection. It's now over—giving Canadian producers renewed access to one of the world's top protein markets. <break time="0.4s"/> What's that mean for U.S. cattlemen? <break time="0.3s"/> Well, nothing immediate, but it does mean more competition in Asian supply chains. Canadian beef could push into some market spots the U.S. currently occupies, especially if currency and freight work in Canada's favor. Jim: Sounds like we're gettin' squeezed from the north again—and I ain't talkin' about cold fronts. Brock: Exactly. At the same time, Brazil is playing keep-it-steady. According to their beef exporters association, they expect exports in 2026 to remain stable. U.S. demand has been helping offset some of the losses they faced with China. So we're essentially seeing a reshuffle—less Brazilian beef going east, more creeping into Western Hemisphere markets. <break time="0.4s"/> And then there's Europe. The Mercosur–EU deal hit a snag this week as European lawmakers sent it to their high court. That move could delay final approval by up to two years. The trade partnership included beef provisions that would've increased South American access to European markets. So this delay could be a small win for U.S. and Canadian exporters, at least in markets like Germany or France that are already importing American beef. <break time="0.3s"/> It's a complicated chess board right now, but the pieces are moving. You got any stories about trade shifts like this? Jim: Well now, that reminds me of eighty-nine—back when Japan finally started lettin' in U.S. beef. <break time="0.4s"/> I was sittin' in a cattlemen's meeting down in Fort Worth when the news broke. Old Tom Miller—big Angus guy—stood up and shouted, "Boys, we're gonna be rich!" We all hollered and slapped our hats on the table. Course, it weren't that easy—paperwork dragged out for months. But in the end, it opened the export door wide, and we were runnin' calves under new price floors by the next spring. Brock: That story holds up even now. These big trade developments may not offer instant change—but if they result in better long-term demand or access, it reshapes how we think about production planning. <break time="0.4s"/> Bottom line: keep an eye on Canada re-entering Asia, Brazil nudging further into North America, and Europe holding the door. If you're marketing beef or planning herd size tied to export value, make room for some adjustment in your long-term math. These aren't just headlines—they're the groundwork for where premiums and penalties might show up six months or a year down the road. Jim: And just remember—when trade talks stall, the cows still eat. Don't bet the ranch on Brussels. Brock: A fitting wrap-up. <break time="0.5s"/> Alright folks, before we put a bow on this week's episode, let's run back the headlines real quick. Number one: calf prices are holding firm. Five-weight steers at four hundred forty-two dollars and twenty-nine cents per hundredweight, six-weights near four hundred. Both groups are seeing high volume, and while the futures are trading lower, demand in the country is sending a strong signal. <break time="0.3s"/> Number two: rumors hurt. The New World Screwworm scare sent markets wobbling early this week. Thanks to fast action by USDA, sanity returned quickly—but the damage from false alarms is real. <break time="0.3s"/> Number three: weather's a wildcard. Snow and cold are testing calves, especially in the Midwest and Southern Plains. Expect some weaker performance in lighter conditioned cattle, and adjust your shipping plans accordingly. <break time="0.3s"/> And finally: it's a global game. Canada's shifting back into China, Brazil holding steady, and the EU trade clock just got paused. U.S. producers need to keep watching how these changes ripple down to the sale barn. Jim: And if you fell asleep mid-episode, just remember this—don't sell calves in a blizzard, and don't believe the internet when it says your steer's got screwworm. Brock: That's about as concise a summary as we could hope for. <break time="0.4s"/> Alright, that wraps it up for this week. We'll be back next Friday with more insights and stories from the cattle world. Until then, stay safe, stay warm, and keep working smart. Jim: And feed that bunk like you mean it. Catch y'all next time. Brock: Take care, folks. ======================================== END OF SCRIPT ========================================

CATTLE MARKET GUYS - PODCAST SCRIPT ======================================== Generated: 2026-01-20T13:35:08.446Z Episode Type: tuesday_update Episode Title: Tuesday Market Update Episode Date: January 20, 2026 ======================================== SCRIPT STATISTICS ======================================== Total Words: 1875 Estimated Duration: 12.5 minutes Brock: - Words: 1530 (81.6%) - Speaking Time: ~10.2 minutes Jim: - Words: 345 (18.4%) - Speaking Time: ~2.3 minutes ======================================== FULL SCRIPT ======================================== Brock: Welcome back to the "Cattle Market Guys" mid-week update. It's Wednesday, January twentieth, twenty twenty-six, and we've got a lot to cover today.<break time="0.3s"/> I'm Brock, here in Nebraska, and I've been digging through the data and reports all morning so you don't have to. On deck today: a steady uptick in feeder steer prices, growing concerns over screwworm outbreaks along the Texas border, shifting production dynamics in the EU livestock sector, and how global instability is stirring up the meat markets.<break time="0.5s"/> Let's kick things off with a full-market snapshot and see where prices are moving here in the third week of January. Looking at the numbers, the five- to five-forty-nine weight class steers are holding strong. This past week, those calves averaged four hundred forty-two dollars and twenty-nine cents per hundredweight, which is a slight uptick from four hundred thirty-eight dollars and sixty-six cents the week before. That's just under a four-dollar gain week-over-week.<break time="0.3s"/> And when you consider they were at four hundred twenty-seven dollars and seventy-two cents in mid-December, we're talking about nearly a fifteen-dollar-per-hundred increase over the last month. Now for the six- to six-forty-nine weight class, we're also seeing that steady climb. Last week's average came in at three hundred ninety-eight dollars and ninety cents per hundredweight, up just over a buck from the week prior. Back in late December, those steers were at three hundred ninety-two dollars and twenty-three cents. So while the pace of increase is modest, the trend is still upward. Volume is worth noting here as well. We saw heavy volume in both weight groups—nineteen thousand four hundred head for the six-weight steers and sixty-five hundred head for the five-weights. That kind of liquidity gives us confidence these price levels aren't just outliers from one-off sales.<break time="0.3s"/> And it tells us the market has good traction as we close out January. On the futures side, though, it's a different story. Front-month cattle futures are lagging spot markets—currently sitting at three hundred sixty-three dollars and twenty-five cents. That's about thirty-five dollars under the feeder steer cash average for five-weights. According to the article published by The Cattle Site, part of the weakness in futures is being attributed to fears around the screwworm outbreak near the border, which we'll talk about in just a minute.<break time="0.4s"/> Jim, when the cash market's running that far ahead of futures, what does that tell you? Jim: Well, Brock, I don't need a spreadsheet to tell me this—when you got that kind of spread, there's either fear or funny business downstream. Right now, it smells more like fear. Brock: You're absolutely right. And that brings us straight into our first deep dive because those screwworm fears are rattling folks from South Texas all the way to Chicago's trading pits.<break time="0.5s"/> According to recent reporting from The Cattle Site and Cattle Range, there have now been eleven confirmed cases of New World Screwworm in Mexico since December. Eight of those were just reported within the last week in the state of Tamaulipas, which, as you know, is right along the Texas border. That's got biosecurity officials on high alert, especially given how fast this parasite can spread. The screwworm is no ordinary pest. This is a flesh-eating fly larva that targets open wounds, and it can decimate a herd if left unchecked.<break time="0.3s"/> USDA and animal health authorities are working with Mexican officials to ramp up surveillance, but the potential impact on cross-border trade and market psychology is already being felt. Futures contracts took a noticeable hit right after reports of the new cases surfaced last Friday. Now, back in December, when the first three cases were identified, there was hope it might be contained quickly. But with eight new cases in just one week, it's clear the situation's escalating.<break time="0.3s"/> And producers along the southern border are being advised to check their cattle daily, report any signs of infestation, and avoid unnecessary movements where possible. Jim, I know screwworm ain't new news to you. You were ranching down that way back in the day.<break time="0.4s"/> Walk us through what happened when y'all dealt with it. Jim: Yeah, I remember clear as day back in '84 when we had that screwworm scare down in South Texas. I was running about 800 head at the time, and every rancher I knew was checkin' their cattle twice a day for wounds. We had to dip every animal coming across from Mexico, and I spent more time than I care to count at the inspection stations, helpin' the USDA guys poke and prod.<break time="0.3s"/> They were flying sterile flies out by the millions tryin' to stop the breeding cycle. It worked, eventually—but it made sales real tricky that fall. I'm telling you, when it comes to livestock diseases, prevention beats panic every time. Brock: That's a hard-earned lesson, and one that still applies today. The takeaway here for folks listening: stay informed, double down on biosecurity, and be ready for potential shipping restrictions if this thing crosses the line.<break time="0.3s"/> The futures market is skittish, but the fundamentals are still solid unless a widespread outbreak hits U.S. soil. For now, it's a waiting game. Alright, shifting gears to Europe.<break time="0.5s"/> This next topic might seem a bit distant, but I promise there's a ripple effect here that matters. Reports from The Cattle Site this week point to some major shifts in European Union livestock trends. Since two thousand nine, the EU has seen a steady decline in total livestock headcount. But what's gotten more attention lately is the way meat production is shifting categories.<break time="0.3s"/> Red meat—especially beef and lamb—is on a downward trend, while poultry's been on the rise. In fact, pig meat remains the largest overall segment, but poultry is closing the gap fast due to lower production costs and fewer consumer barriers. So, why does this matter to U.S. producers?<break time="0.3s"/> Well, Europe's production decisions affect export demand and global pricing dynamics. If they're pulling back on red meat while focusing more on poultry, that makes room for countries like the U.S., Australia, and Brazil to step in and fill those gaps in beef-export markets. Looking closer at the numbers—according to the latest data, EU raw milk production actually inched up by zero point six percent year-over-year to about one hundred sixty-one point eight million tonnes, with Germany still leading the dairy pack. But that's processed almost fully within the EU, meaning it doesn't really relieve pressure on the global beef complex. The key takeaway here is that volatility in European production could boost opportunities for U.S. beef exports, especially if Europe continues its red meat retreat.<break time="0.3s"/> But it's not a clear-cut win. Price differences, import restrictions, and shifting consumer preferences, especially in Asia and the Middle East, all complicate the picture. Jim, what's your read on this kind of directional shift in foreign production? Jim: Well, Brock, they might be trading T-bones for chicken wings over there, but a ribeye's still a ribeye where it counts. You can't beat beef on flavor, and I reckon long as folks can afford it, they'll keep demanding the good stuff. Brock: I agree there's still a strong cultural appetite for grain-fed beef in key markets—and the EU's retreat may offer us some strategic leverage, assuming we navigate tariffs and trade deals effectively.<break time="0.3s"/> But for producers at home, the headlines don't translate to immediate price hikes. It's about positioning. Long-term, these shifts shape policy, projections, and producer strategy. They're worth watching even if they don't move your sale barn price tomorrow. Now let's round out the show with our third and final deep dive—and this one brings it back home.<break time="0.5s"/> According to a cattle report from AgCenter and analysis from the FAO, global meat prices have remained elevated through twenty-twenty-five and into early twenty-twenty-six. The underlying causes? A mix of geopolitical instability, disease flare-ups, and weather extremes. Not shockingly, that creates market uncertainty, but what's surprising is that despite all these storms, core fundamentals are proving resilient. Looking across the U.S., this past week's show lists varied pretty heavily by region. Texas is running light right now, with fewer feeders hitting market-ready weight. In Nebraska, show lists remained basically flat, while Kansas saw a noticeable bump.<break time="0.3s"/> That's likely weather-driven—sub-zero temperatures across the Plains slowed gains and shipping in parts of Texas and Nebraska. Meanwhile, broader meat price trends reflect some of the same pressure points. Between export hiccups tied to conflict zones and bottlenecks caused by animal health outbreaks—like avian flu on the poultry side—we've seen more volatility than the average January. But here's the silver lining: the long-term global demand curve for beef remains firm.<break time="0.3s"/> Economies may shift and panic may spike, but populations are growing and diets are evolving upwards. Jim, you've faced plenty of curveballs over the decades. What does all this uncertainty say to you? Jim: Back in the summer of '88, Brock, we had one of the worst droughts I'd seen to date. Ponds dried up, pastures burned to a crisp, and folks were sellin' cattle just to keep the lights on.<break time="0.3s"/> I remember drivin' past the sale barn in Abilene—line of trailers wrapped three blocks long. My neighbor sold off all 400 of his cows—couldn't feed 'em, couldn't move 'em. But those who stuck it out had to get mighty creative. One guy I knew started feedin' rumen-friendly bakery waste—imagine tellin' your bull he's eatin' donuts. Brock: Wow. What happened when things turned around? Jim: Prices dropped a good 25 percent during that selloff stretch. But by the next spring, when the rain came back, so did the buyers. Mother Nature don't play favorites, but she sure teaches hard lessons. Brock: That's the kind of perspective that's hard to quantify but invaluable to hear. In times like now—with foreign disease threats, weather challenges, and global instability—all the data in the world can't replace prudence and preparation.<break time="0.5s"/> So, what does this all mean heading into February? Well, looking ahead, the one-week national prediction for five-weight steers is four hundred thirty-three dollars and seventeen cents per hundredweight. That's down a little over nine bucks from the current spot price of four hundred forty-two dollars and twenty-nine cents. For six-weight steers, the one-week forecast is four hundred thirteen dollars and thirteen cents, up from the current three hundred ninety-eight dollars and ninety cents mark.<break time="0.3s"/> That spread tells us that analysts expect some fading in the lightweights but more strength ahead for the six-weight group. It reinforces what we often say—stay nimble, know your timing, and don't assume past prices mean future profits. Before we wrap this thing up, Jim, got any words of wisdom for the producers facing all these headwinds? Jim: Yeah, buddy. Panicked cows and panicked people rarely yield profits. You keep your head when the rest are losin' theirs? Well... you stand to make a dollar when they're losin' two. Brock: Couldn't have said it better.<break time="0.5s"/> That's gonna do it for today's mid-week market check here on the "Cattle Market Guys" podcast. We'll be back next week with more updates, analysis, and a few more stories from Jim's dusty memory banks. Until then, keep an eye on the numbers, your cattle, and the wind—and we'll talk to you soon. Thanks for listening. ======================================== END OF SCRIPT ========================================

CATTLE MARKET GUYS - PODCAST SCRIPT ======================================== Generated: 2026-01-16T14:16:46.082Z Episode Type: friday_wrap Episode Title: Week in Review Episode Date: January 16, 2026 ======================================== SCRIPT STATISTICS ======================================== Total Words: 2086 Estimated Duration: 13.9 minutes Brock: - Words: 1646 (78.9%) - Speaking Time: ~11.0 minutes Jim: - Words: 440 (21.1%) - Speaking Time: ~2.9 minutes ======================================== FULL SCRIPT ======================================== Brock: Welcome back to another "Friday Wrap" episode of Cattle Market Guys. It's January sixteenth, twenty twenty-six, and I'm Brock—your data guy from up in Nebraska, where we're navigating market signals like it's a corn maze in August. <break time="0.5s"/> Now today's rundown is packed: we've got strong calf prices and heavy volume to kick things off in the latest snapshot. Then we're diving into those recent dairy sector initiatives, futures volatility mid-January, and some international cattle trade developments that could shift the whole playing field. <break time="0.3s"/> Jim's with me, and trust me—he's been around long enough to tell you what happens when governments meddle with dairy cows or when trade deals hit the headlines. Jim: And I've been around long enough to remember when "online sale" meant you were standing behind line five at the café with a notepad! Brock: Well put. <break time="0.3s"/> Alright, let's kick it off with the latest market snapshot. Looking at the numbers from this past week, it was nothing short of active—volume was heavy across the board. For medium and large-frame one steers in the five-hundred to five-forty-nine-pound weight range, we saw current prices land at four hundred thirty-eight dollars and twenty-two cents per hundredweight. That's up from four hundred twenty-nine dollars and fifty-five cents just the week before. Pretty solid gain there—particularly considering the strong volume: over seventy-two hundred head moved through the ring. <break time="0.4s"/> For that same week, the six-hundred to six-forty-nine-pound steers were reporting at three hundred ninety-two dollars and eighteen cents per hundredweight. Again—notable movement upward from the previous week, which saw that class at around three hundred eighty dollars and ninety cents. Futures for the front month are coming in at three hundred fifty-seven dollars and forty-two cents, signaling that the cash market's still holding a considerable premium. <break time="0.3s"/> Now, if you zoom out and look at the predictive trends, things remain bullish—at least short-term. The national prediction for five-weight steers next week is four hundred thirty-one dollars and seventy cents per hundredweight. Up the road at the three-week mark? We're looking at four hundred forty-three dollars and six cents. That means the forecast is building some strength into late January and early February. Jim: That five-weight price is stickin' out like a steer in a chicken coop. Brock: It sure is, and that likely ties back to some optimism around lower feed costs and tightening supply. <break time="0.5s"/> So let's dig into something that could affect all of this—there's been a fresh USDA initiative you might've seen titled the "Make America More Ground Beef" Program, or M-A-M-G-B for short. Under that CCC authority, the USDA is now offering financial incentives to dairy producers for voluntary culling—specifically targeting their older, less productive cows. The idea here is twofold: reduce oversupply in the milk market and bolster the availability of lean cow beef, which has seen tighter supply months going into winter. <break time="0.4s"/> At the same time, we saw industry players like ADM rolling out more refined nutrition systems focused on transition cows—the weeks right before and after calving. Their pitch is that better feeding practices in that window boost fertility, increase longevity, and improve milk output. In other words, some segments of the industry want to keep more cows and get more out of them, while the government is nudging others toward the slaughter pipeline. It's kind of a push-pull scenario. <break time="0.3s"/> On one hand, we may see increased processing numbers if the culling incentives really take off. That could pressure ground beef markets like we saw in past dairy herd purges. But long term, improvements in transition cow nutrition could mean cows staying in herds longer, on better production footing. It's a classic short-term correction versus long-term optimization tradeoff. <break time="0.4s"/> Jim, you've seen government steps like this before—what's the one that sticks with you the most? Jim: I remember clear as day back in eighty-six when the government rolled out that dairy termination program—whole-herd buyout. My neighbor over in Sweetwater, he took 'em up on it. Got about one thousand four hundred dollars a head to send every last dairy cow in his barn to slaughter. <break time="0.3s"/> Now listen here—they didn't just trickle into the beef market… they flooded it. You had week after week of Holstein cows pouring through every sale barn in Texas. Must've been fifteen weeks straight on my end. I was running stockers back then, and I sat in the bleachers watching prices crater like a cow falling through ice. <break time="0.3s"/> Sure, it eventually helped stabilize everything, but I learned something right then: when Uncle Sam reaches for the herd, you better check your freezer and your pocketbook—'cause one of 'em's fixin' to get hit. Brock: That's a powerful memory, Jim, and it paints the picture well. Oversupply events don't respect sector lines—one policy in dairy can ripple across the entire beef value chain, and fast. <break time="0.3s"/> This MAMGB program doesn't have the same scope as a full buyout like in the eighties, but it does create a potential influx of lean, older cows at a time when packer margins are already being squeezed. We'll have to watch closely how the timing aligns with other price factors, especially regionally—because it could put seasonal downward pressure on lean beef values, even if short-term demand remains solid. The key thing to remember is that these cows hitting the market aren't spread out evenly over time. They tend to come in waves, just like Jim saw back then, and that creates these pressure points in the system that can catch you off guard if you're not paying attention. Jim: One old cow walking through that ring's one thing. A thousand old girls in one week? That's a wreck waiting for a weather report. Brock: Exactly. <break time="0.5s"/> Alright—shifting over to the futures side of the house. We've had some interesting movement, starting earlier this week with cattle futures climbing on tighter supply sentiment and falling feed costs. July corn's been sliding most of the past ten sessions, which has eased projected cost-of-gain and given fat cattle markets a tailwind. According to the data, front-month futures last settled at three hundred fifty-seven dollars and forty-two cents, which is up compared to prior weeks. That rally was largely supply-side driven, as slaughter pace remains firm but inventory isn't building like in previous January cycles. <break time="0.4s"/> That said, we got a bit of a curveball this Friday—some profit-taking moved in, and futures slipped back slightly off those multi-month highs. This isn't unusual. Anytime we push a chart into technical overbought territory, you'll get some corrections. Essentially, we're seeing traders cash out some early-year gains, especially those who jumped in during December's lower trend. But it's not just a matter of charts or speculators. <break time="0.3s"/> One thing that caught my attention this week is this subtle post-holiday positivity—feeders and fats both saw week-on-week gains, even with Friday's futures pullback. The depth of cash market strength held up well despite broader economic pressure. Overall, this market's showing muscle, not just momentum. Producers should keep an eye on how feed cost declines interact with marketing windows because those lower ration costs could breathe some life into retained ownership and backgrounding decisions this spring. Jim: Cheaper corn's like cheaper beer—everyone gets brave till morning comes. Brock: Ha! Words to live by, Jim. <break time="0.3s"/> But you're right—the optimism around feed inputs should always be tempered with good risk management. Now let's bring it home with something that's developing on the global stage. We've got some real movement north of the border and fresh signals out of Europe and Asia that could affect us down the line. <break time="0.5s"/> So three big stories this week in global cattle trade. First off, U.S. cattle exports to Canada hit major highs—over two hundred ninety-four thousand head exported through September. That's approaching the four hundred thousand head record we set in twenty twenty-four. The main driver? Demand. Canadian feeders and processors are staying active, and our southern markets have inventory to move. That strong northern corridor continues to provide some margin relief to U.S. producers, especially in border states like Montana and the Dakotas. <break time="0.4s"/> Second, China has officially reopened its market to Irish beef following a two-year ban related to mad cow concerns. That creates both opportunity and competition. On one hand, it relieves pressure on European overstock and reinforces trust in Irish food safety. On the other, it puts more international product into Asia—which could create pricing friction for U.S. beef exports long term. And third, the European Union is inching toward early implementation of the Mercosur trade deal, even before parliament votes. That would open the door for increased South American beef exports into the EU. Again—more supply into the global system at a time when many U.S. packers are already tightening production rates to defend margins. <break time="0.3s"/> So what does this mean? <break time="0.3s"/> For U.S. producers, the take-home is bifurcation. We're exporting more north to Canada—which is helpful—but we're gaining competition overseas. If the Mercosur deal fast-tracks and China stays open to Irish beef, the U.S. will need to lean harder into high-quality branding and niche market access abroad. <break time="0.4s"/> Jim, this spike in U.S.-Canada cattle movement reminds me of something you mentioned a while back—what was the situation back in eighty-nine? Jim: Oh yeah—Back in eighty-nine, when the Free Trade Agreement with Canada first took hold, the whole countryside was nervous. I had a buddy, Bob—he ran about three hundred head just east of me—and he was convinced Canadian beef was gonna bury us all. <break time="0.3s"/> We were sitting at the Extension office south of Lamesa, and this ag economist starts talkin' like "Imports from Canada might hit a hundred thousand head!" Now back then, that was like sayin' locusts were coming—and we stocked up like it too. But here's the truth: things smoothed out. Yes, cattle came, but cattle also left. Trade got to movin' both ways, and producers learned to play it smart. The sky didn't fall, and we ended up with more stable pricing lanes later on. Brock: There's always an initial shock with new trade dynamics, but then the market finds equilibrium. And it's good to remember that a strong export channel—like we've got going with Canada right now—can be a meaningful stabilizer when domestic prices waffle. <break time="0.3s"/> Also, these trade shifts tend to hit certain segments differently. If you're in a region that typically exports to Asia, you'll need to pay closer attention to European and South American flows. Meanwhile, our northern-tier states may see added opportunity—if transportation and processing infrastructure can support the long runs. The other thing to watch is how these global moves affect beef cutout values domestically. When more product floods international markets, it can shift packer behavior here at home, especially on middle meats and grinding beef. Jim: Let me tell you what—ranchin' with one eye on the globe and one on your heifers takes some practice. If I had a dollar for every time macroeconomics made a mess of a good Monday... I'd still be out here chasin' yearlings—just with a nicer truck. Brock: Ha! Alright, that's gonna wrap it for today's episode of the "Cattle Market Guys." <break time="0.5s"/> Let's hit the key takeaways real quick. First: prices are holding strong on five- and six-weight steers, with steady strength in the national forecast. Futures remain elevated, though we saw some end-of-week softening on profit-taking. Second: the USDA's new dairy incentives might push more older cows into the beef market—keep an eye on cow numbers moving into February. Third: don't let market volatility rattle you. Feed cost relief is real, but it's only part of the picture. <break time="0.3s"/> And finally: we're seeing international movement heat up—Canadian exports are a bright spot, but global competition from Europe and South America is ramping up again too. Stay nimble. <break time="0.4s"/> Jim, any parting thoughts from your side of the fence? Jim: Yeah—today's lesson is simple: when the government shows up with a check, the market shows up with a curveball. Keep your boots dry and your buyers honest. Brock: That's sage advice. Thanks for riding with us here on the "Cattle Market Guys." Wherever you're working cattle this weekend—or watching futures tick on your phone between chores—stay sharp, stay resilient, and we'll catch you next week. Until then, take care and keep those numbers honest. Jim: And remember folks, markets change, cows bawl, and coffee goes cold—but a smart rancher gets ahead of all three. See y'all next week. ======================================== END OF SCRIPT ========================================

CATTLE MARKET GUYS - PODCAST SCRIPT ======================================== Generated: 2026-01-13T14:04:11.896Z Episode Type: wednesday_update Episode Date: January 13, 2026 ======================================== SCRIPT STATISTICS ======================================== Total Words: 1900 Estimated Duration: 12.7 minutes Brock: - Words: 1497 (78.8%) - Speaking Time: ~10.0 minutes Jim: - Words: 403 (21.2%) - Speaking Time: ~2.7 minutes ======================================== FULL SCRIPT ======================================== Brock: Welcome back to another Wednesday edition of the Cattle Market Guys. It's January 13th, 2026. I'm Brock, your data-driven host out here in Nebraska, and as always, I'm joined by the voice of 40 years of ranching wisdom, Jim down in West Texas. <break time="0.5s"/> Now, we've got a packed show today—feeder markets are showing real momentum, there's some serious trade drama brewing overseas with the EU and South America, and we've got a biosecurity issue that's a little too close to the border for comfort. Jim, before we dive in, anything catch your eye this week? Jim: Well, Brock, I've been ranching long enough to remember when you got cattle prices by fax—if the machine was workin'. These days, everything moves faster, including the headaches. Brock: Ha! That's the truth. Well, thankfully we've come a long way from fax machines, and today we're looking at some genuine movement in these markets. <break time="0.5s"/> So let's waste no time and jump right into what's been happening with prices this past week. Looking at the numbers, it's clear we've got some real momentum continuing in the feeder markets. Medium and large frame number one steers in the five hundred to five forty-nine pound weight class are averaging four hundred thirty-eight dollars and twenty-two cents per hundredweight. Now that's up from four hundred twenty-nine dollars and fifty-five cents the previous week—almost a nine-dollar jump in a single week. <break time="0.3s"/> We also saw strong volume there, with over seventy-two hundred head sold, so this isn't just a thin market anomaly. Moving up in weight to the six hundred to six forty-nine class, current average price this week hit three hundred ninety-two dollars and eighteen cents. That's up over eleven dollars from the previous week's three hundred eighty dollars and ninety cents, and with over twenty thousand head sold in that weight class, the volume was definitely there to confirm the trend. Jim: That ain't no holiday lull anymore. Brock: You got that right. <break time="0.3s"/> Now, on the futures side, the front month closed at three hundred fifty-seven dollars and forty-two cents—that's slightly down from last week's peak, and some of that loss is being attributed to profit-taking. The article from The Cattle Site confirms this, saying recent gains had brought futures back to their highest levels since October, so naturally some traders decided to cash in. But here's what I find interesting: <break time="0.4s"/> national predictions are still showing optimism. For five-weight steers, the one-week forward projection is four hundred thirty-one dollars and seventy cents per hundredweight, and the three-week forecast actually peaks at four hundred forty-three dollars and six cents. That suggests sustained strength in feeder markets through the rest of January. The pace looks healthy, but it's also bumping up against some reality checks, especially when you factor in futures behavior and what's happening with feed costs. Jim, does this kind of January run remind you of anything you've seen before? Jim: Sure does. Reminds me of 2011, actually. Had a January where prices went up so fast, the auctioneer had to take a water break. Only time I ever saw that man stop talking. Brock: Now that's saying something! <break time="0.5s"/> Alright, let's shift gears and head overseas for a minute, because there's a trade story developing that might sound like European drama on the surface, but it's got implications for us here at home. Over the weekend, the European Union officially approved its massive free trade agreement with the South American Mercosur bloc—twenty-five years in the making, folks. This deal is now set to open wider market access for beef and dairy coming from countries like Brazil and Argentina into European markets, with fewer tariffs and fewer barriers. <break time="0.4s"/> That has sparked serious backlash, especially in Ireland. According to reporting from The Cattle Site, thousands of Irish farmers rallied with tractors and signs, protesting what they see as unfair competition. These producers are saying the deal allows in beef produced under standards that don't match their own—and at price points they simply can't compete with. Now, while this might sound like it's got nothing to do with us, there's a broader signal here. <break time="0.3s"/> It shows how trade deals can undercut or uplift certain parts of the protein chain. If South American beef becomes cheaper in Europe, that impacts global demand curves—including for U.S. beef headed to premium export markets. What do you think, Jim? This trade rattle giving you any flashbacks? Jim: Oh, no doubt. I remember clear as day back in '89—everyone was worried sick about losin' our Japanese beef market. I had just sunk a fair bit of money into some premium Angus genetics, picked 'em for marbling, specifically for export contracts with Tokyo steakhouses. Those talks dragged on for months. My neighbor Bob had to postpone retirement because his whole operation was built around that export premium. That whole ordeal taught us one thing: never put all your calves in one market basket. Brock: And that's still solid advice today. <break time="0.3s"/> When you see Irish producers flooding the streets, it's not just about price—they're worried about systemic imbalance. South American herds operate on different land models, different feed inputs, and arguably, different regulatory oversight. Now, will this shift U.S. opportunities in Europe? Possibly. But we'll likely need to wait and see how implementation actually shakes out. If it leads to price suppression in the EU cattle sector, we may find ourselves in a position to capture premium trade where quality and traceability make a real difference. <break time="0.3s"/> For U.S. ranchers, the takeaway right now is this: keep an eye on exports, but don't assume global demand stays static. Trade agreements move slow, but their impact can land hard and fast. Jim: It all depends on whether buyers care more about price or story. Folks will always pay more when they know where the steak came from—and who raised it. Brock: Exactly right. <break time="0.5s"/> Now, digging back into U.S. markets—specifically cattle futures and pricing signals—there's some interesting tension between optimistic forecasts and short-term pullbacks. As I mentioned earlier, futures prices dropped slightly this week after several strong sessions, driven in part by profit-taking on the CME after markets reached their highest marks since back in October. An article from The Cattle Site caught that angle well—traders simply locking in some gains. <break time="0.3s"/> But it's not all downside. According to the latest USDA WASDE report, there's stronger beef output forecast for the first quarter of this year, thanks to heavier dressed weights. That's adding some short-term pressure to prices but could ease supply concerns later. Meanwhile, live cattle cash bids have inched up to two hundred thirty-three dollars—a one-dollar bump, which isn't huge, but it is meaningful when margins are thin. <break time="0.4s"/> Corn markets are also shifting. After the WASDE report dropped, corn prices retreated with USDA raising total U.S. corn ending stocks to two point two billion bushels, and adding one point three million acres to harvested area. That's bearish for feed costs, which might give some feeders a bit of breathing room. What's your gut telling you right now, Jim? Are folks getting nervous or is this just standard January jitters? Jim: Well, Brock, you know how it goes. January always brings out the hand-wringing. Cold air rolls in, pens are full, and buyers start tightening them wallets. But to me, this ain't panic—it's recalibration. Back in 2005, I remember corn did the same thing after a big USDA adjustment. Prices dipped, feeders perked up, and then the games began. I reckon we're just at the start of a classic feedyard poker game. Brock: That's a fitting metaphor. <break time="0.3s"/> What's especially important here is the feed-to-gain economics. Even a slight tick down in corn prices can fuel optimism on the demand side for feeder cattle. Long story short: if you're a producer right now, watch closely how inputs are behaving. And if you're hedging, be aware that lighter futures markets mean less leverage—but also opportunities if you're ready to manage the risk. <break time="0.3s"/> The other thing I'd say is don't get caught flat-footed. These swings might feel small now, but they add up quick when you're running volume through the yard. Jim: Hedging without a plan is about as useful as boots with no soles. Brock: Ha! I might put that one on a coffee mug, Jim. <break time="0.5s"/> Alright, before we wrap up today, we need to turn to a more serious topic—biosecurity. A report out this week raised concerns about New World screwworm cases on the Mexico side of the southern U.S. border. According to a piece in Beef Magazine, although total active cases in Mexico dropped by fifty percent in December compared to prior months, roughly five hundred cases were still reported—including infected mature cows and young calves. <break time="0.4s"/> The issue here is geography. Some of these cases were identified within two hundred miles of the U.S. border, which puts them uncomfortably close to our domestic herd. While USDA and international partners are monitoring this closely, it's a reminder that disease risk never really vanishes. One lapse in screening protocols can bring an outbreak nobody wants to deal with. <break time="0.3s"/> And Jim, I believe this rings pretty familiar for you, doesn't it? Jim: Oh yeah. Back in '83, we had a nasty screwworm scare right here in West Texas. Let me tell you what—that wasn't no minor issue. We were checking every single calf, every day. USDA had them planes flying over, dropping sterile flies like clockwork. Whole ranches turned into monitoring stations. We lost three good calves before we got ahead of it. Folks were gathering in school gyms every week for USDA updates. It was all hands on deck. Thing is, when it comes to livestock health, an ounce of prevention beats a pound of cure every time. Brock: That's absolutely true across the board. <break time="0.3s"/> Anyone listening along the southern tier—from Texas to Arizona—needs to stay plugged in to any USDA alerts. If you're in calving season especially, keep eyes on umbilical health, any signs of irritation, or atypical behavior. Diseases like screwworm can escalate fast if they go unnoticed, so whether you remember '83 or you were born after it, make sure you've built a plan and protocols into your herd health calendar. Don't wait for the vet to sound the alarm—this is the kind of stuff ranchers spot first if they're sharp. Jim: And don't assume your vet knows before you do. Stay ahead of it. Brock: Right. <break time="0.5s"/> Alright, that'll do it for this week's mid-week update. To recap: feeder steers are climbing strong, futures took a breather after hitting October highs, Ireland is throwing tractors at Brussels over South American beef, and we've got a biosecurity situation down south that deserves your attention. It's a dynamic start to the year, and frankly, I don't think things are gonna slow down anytime soon. Jim: And it's only January. This market's got more twists than a barbed wire fence in a windstorm. Brock: Well put, Jim. <break time="0.3s"/> Thanks for riding along with us today, folks. As always, if you're enjoying the insights we bring each week, be sure to subscribe and tell a fellow producer. We appreciate you tuning in. Jim: Y'all stay sharp and check your calves' navels. We'll see you next time. Brock: Take care, be safe, and keep your pencils sharp. This has been the Cattle Market Guys, signing off. ======================================== END OF SCRIPT ========================================

CATTLE MARKET GUYS - PODCAST SCRIPT ======================================== Generated: 2026-01-09T22:29:44.584Z Episode Type: friday_wrap Episode Date: January 9, 2026 ======================================== SCRIPT STATISTICS ======================================== Total Words: 14 Estimated Duration: 0.1 minutes Brock: - Words: 7 (50.0%) - Speaking Time: ~0.0 minutes Jim: - Words: 7 (50.0%) - Speaking Time: ~0.0 minutes ======================================== FULL SCRIPT ======================================== Brock: Welcome back to another Friday edition of the "Cattle Market Guys" podcast. I'm Brock, broadcasting from Nebraska, where the snow's piling up and so are the feeder market charts. <break time="0.5s"/> We've got a full roundup this week with some firm numbers on calf and feeder prices, tightening supply fundamentals, Brazil shifting the global cattle power balance, and a look at how AI is reshaping cattle production. Stick with us, whether you're in the truck, the tractor, or just sipping coffee by the shop heater—we've got the market insights to finish your week strong. Let's dive right into your latest market snapshot. Looking at the numbers from the past week ending January 6th, we've got mixed movement across feeder steer categories. <break time="0.3s"/> For steers in the five to five-forty-nine weight range, current prices came in at four hundred nine dollars and forty-eight cents per hundredweight. That's up just a touch compared to four hundred five dollars and fifty-seven cents the previous week. Volume this week was average, with around 834 head moved—not a banner run, but decent given early January activity. On the six hundred to six-forty-nine class, we're sitting at three hundred fifty-nine dollars and thirty-seven cents per hundredweight. That's actually a slight dip from the prior week's three hundred sixty-two dollars and a penny. Again, volume came in average with just over a thousand head traded. These are still rock-solid values considering how futures are tracking. Now, here's where it gets interesting. <break time="0.4s"/> The front-month feeder cattle futures are trading around three hundred forty-seven dollars and four cents, while the next-month contract dropped to about three hundred forty-one dollars and fifty-six cents. You've got cash outperforming futures by more than sixty dollars in some of these lighter weight classes. That's not just a basis gap—that's a canyon. Jim: That kind of spread reminds me of the Rio Grande after spring melt—wide, fast, and prone to surprises. Brock: Yeah, and that spread is definitely catching some attention from buyers and sellers alike. <break time="0.3s"/> According to short-term forecasts, lighter-weight steers in the five-weight range are expected to keep moving up next week. The national prediction pins prices at four hundred twelve dollars and thirty-five cents per hundredweight for the coming week, with a further bump up to four hundred fifteen dollars and ninety-eight cents the week after. That trend peaks at four hundred twenty-two dollars and eighty-nine cents in three weeks before slightly cooling to four hundred eight dollars and two cents by week four. For those mid-weight six-weight calves, the forecast projects three hundred ninety-one dollars and forty-eight cents per hundredweight next week, hitting a high of four hundred two dollars and thirty-four cents in two weeks. It eases some into the three hundred seventy-nine and three hundred eighty-five range after that. <break time="0.4s"/> What's driving this momentum? Well, the folks at CME released commentary this week pointing to tight U.S. cattle supplies as the core factor behind rising feeder futures. Volatility may be lurking, but the current floor is pretty firm. Jim, does that match what you're seeing on your end? Jim: That's what they said in '88 before the whole floor disappeared under our feet. You learn to walk carefully in this business. Brock: Fair enough. <break time="0.5s"/> Now let's dig into what's really supporting these numbers—and I'm talking about the fundamentals that are back in the driver's seat heading into 2026. There's been a lot of chatter about the strong fundamentals backing current pricing, and it's not just trader talk. Prices are being held up by some concrete realities—smaller inventories, tighter feedlot placements, and cautious packer behavior. The article from Beef Magazine this week summed it up well: fundamentals are running the show again. Market manipulation, algorithmic noise, or macro shocks aren't doing near as much lifting lately as good old-fashioned supply and demand. <break time="0.3s"/> One key data point from the January 8th report: cattle traded at three hundred sixty-five dollars dressed in several regions. That's a solid price given where we were even 60 days ago. Interestingly, several lots passed on bids around the two hundred thirty-two dollar mark. That tells you packers are aggressively lowballing, but feeders aren't biting. Another indicator—packer inventories are reported to be running light. They've been slow on the kill floor and their pens are thinner than usual. Between tight supply and firm producer resolve, these price floors are getting reinforced. <break time="0.4s"/> Jim, you've seen it before when fundamentals retake the wheel. Remind us—when was the last time you saw such tight inventory positioning like this? Jim: Well now, back in '96, I remember folks were scrambling. We had a beast of a drought and corn exploded to five dollars a bushel—it don't sound like much now, but back then, that was straight-up panic territory. My hay fields were dust, and I had about 300 head of feeder calves I was trying to hang onto. Had no real choice but to sell 'em two hundred pounds lighter than I wanted. Sale barns were jammed every week, and you could hear the heartbreak all the way across the pens. Everybody in Texas was unloading, and that big liquidation drove prices straight down short-term. But you fast-forward a year or two? Supply dried up and the market boomed. Sometimes, the hardest decisions you make in this business get made by Mother Nature. Brock: That's a perfect example, Jim. The liquidation panic planted the seeds for those later price rallies. Today, we're not seeing panic liquidation, but we are seeing multi-decade lows in inventories—especially in cow-calf numbers. That naturally puts a ceiling on feedlot placements and ultimately backs up support into feeder prices. <break time="0.3s"/> When the supply chain runs short across every link, premiums become structural, not just seasonal. From a strategy standpoint, producers with backgrounding or retained ownership should be keeping an eye on basis plays versus local cash—especially if packers stay stubborn. Don't chase the first bid unless it makes sense. The numbers suggest more staying power on these prices than we've seen in past Januarys, and that's worth remembering when you're tempted to dump early. Let's shift gears here. <break time="0.5s"/> This one caught some folks by surprise this week. Brazil has officially overtaken the United States as the world's top beef producer. That was reported just days ago, and while we've known this shift was coming, it's still a major inflection point for global trade. According to The Cattle Site, Brazil not only hit expectations—they overshot 'em by hundreds of thousands of tons. The price in Brazil is averaging around three hundred twenty-one reais, which translates to something like sixty bucks on our scale—dramatically lower than U.S. costs, especially on feed. <break time="0.3s"/> What this means for U.S. cattlemen is increased competition in export markets, especially in Asia where Brazilian beef appeals on price-first dynamics. And added to the mix, Brazil's trying to sort out new beef shipment quota rules with China. There's some trepidation over how Chinese customs will interpret shipments during the policy transition. That wrinkle could delay or reroute product, but if it clears quickly, expect Brazil to flood major ports with boxed beef. Jim: I'll tell you what—that's like showing up to a rodeo late and still winning the buckle. Brazil's got the headcount, the pasture, and good weather. Once they sorted their logistics, the writing was on the barn wall. Brock: Exactly, and this shift also raises pressure on U.S.—China relations. Republic of Ireland is leveraging current EU tensions to negotiate a trade reset with China, possibly opening new beef and dairy access. It underscores that U.S. beef won't automatically be the global go-to—not unless we remain competitive on cost and nimble on trade policy. <break time="0.4s"/> So U.S. producers need to focus on product differentiation—lean into quality, traceability, and brand value. That's where we can hold the advantage even when we lose on bulk pricing. Don't try to be the cheapest when you're producing the best-quality beef in the world. Go where you're appreciated, not undercut. It's a positioning game now, not a volume game. Alright, let's take it to our final topic. <break time="0.5s"/> This week, an article titled "AgTech 2026" from The Cattle Site outlined how AI and precision agriculture are becoming core to cattle operations—big and small alike. And let me say, we're not talking about tech that's ten years away. This is what's being installed right now on farms across North America. The latest innovations include AI-powered feed management systems, sensor-enabled waterers, and precision breeding programs. All of it is designed to reduce waste and boost sustainability. There's a huge push to meet both consumer expectations and climate benchmarks. <break time="0.3s"/> One particular focus is new research around colostrum quality in calves. At the Smart Calf Rearing Conference this week, scientists released data suggesting high-quality colostrum not only improves survival rates but can also increase milk production later in life for replacement heifers and yields for steers. That kind of early-life programming could have multi-year returns for producers. Jim: Well now, back in the day we used to judge colostrum quality by whether it looked more like pancake batter or chocolate milk. If we'd had gadgets telling us protein levels, we'd have thought it was space science. Brock: And now those tools are in the barn aisle instead of a NASA lab. The truth is, even small producers can benefit from this. A farm doesn't have to be big to be smart. <break time="0.3s"/> AI-driven temperature monitors, tracking apps, even auto-weigh scale gates are reshaping herd management. Efficiency's no longer optional—with margins this tight and global competition as fierce as we've talked about, every ounce of gain and every point of feed efficiency matters. It's the kind of edge that compounds over time, and frankly, the producers who adopt early are the ones who'll still be around in ten years. Jim, you've always been a touch skeptical of high-tech in the corral. You coming around yet? Jim: Brock, I gave up fighting gravity years ago—and now I'm starting to lose the battle with Bluetooth. If you can run a cow-calf pair from your iPhone and get another twenty bucks out of her, I say let the robots earn their feed. <break time="0.4s"/> And let me just say this: Technology on the ranch is like beer at a branding—it don't replace hard work, but it sure makes it more enjoyable. Brock: Well said, Jim. <break time="0.5s"/> That's a wrap for today's episode of "Cattle Market Guys." We hope you're heading into the weekend with a sharper outlook and a little perspective, too. As always, don't forget to subscribe on your favorite podcast platform, and leave us a review if we've earned your ear. We'll be back Tuesday with more updates as the market unfolds. Stay warm, stay smart, and stay profitable out there. Jim: And remember—never underestimate a January market run. It might just chase you all the way into June. Catch y'all next week. ======================================== END OF SCRIPT ========================================

CATTLE MARKET GUYS - PODCAST SCRIPT ======================================== Generated: 2026-01-06T12:29:35.301Z Episode Type: wednesday_update Episode Date: January 6, 2026 ======================================== SCRIPT STATISTICS ======================================== Total Words: 25 Estimated Duration: 0.2 minutes Brock: - Words: 13 (52.0%) - Speaking Time: ~0.1 minutes Jim: - Words: 12 (48.0%) - Speaking Time: ~0.1 minutes ======================================== FULL SCRIPT ======================================== Brock: Welcome back to another mid-week edition of "Cattle Market Guys," your go-to source for the latest in beef markets, industry shifts, and everything in between. <break time="0.5s"/> It's January sixth, twenty twenty-six, and we're diving right into some tight supply shockwaves, rising futures, and international competition heating up. The futures markets are reacting like someone yelled fire in a crowded barn, and honestly, there's some legitimate reasons behind all that noise. <break time="0.3s"/> I'm Brock, staying warm up here in Nebraska and watching the market screens like usual. Jim: And I'm Jim, down here in West Texas, where we've seen both dust and downpours this week—neither one seems to help my fences hold. Brock: Ha! Well Jim, let's kick things off with the latest market snapshot and get our hands around where we stand right now. <break time="0.5s"/> Looking at the numbers, we saw five-weight steers—specifically Medium and Large Frame Number One in the five hundred to five forty-nine weight range—at a current price of around three hundred fifty-nine dollars and thirty-seven cents per hundredweight. That's notably up considering the front-month futures are sitting at three hundred forty-seven dollars and four cents, and the next month just a hair behind that at three hundred forty-one dollars and fifty-six cents. <break time="0.4s"/> What's interesting is, if you pull back and look at the one-, two-, and even four-week predictions, we've got a lot more optimism baked in. The national one-week forecast is calling for four hundred twelve dollars and thirty-five cents per hundredweight, with the two-week out at four hundred fifteen dollars and ninety-eight cents. That number climbs again in week three to around four hundred twenty-two dollars and eighty-nine cents before sliding a bit down to four hundred eight dollars and two cents in week four. So short-term bullishness is strong, built on tighter supply assumptions and some heavy emotional trading out of disease concerns—which we'll get into in just a minute. Jim: When you see those kinds of gaps between current and predictive prices, well, that's kinda like seeing storm clouds pop up when your hay is three rows from being baled. Not a great sign for sleep. Brock: That's exactly the analogy, Jim. <break time="0.3s"/> Add in the recent futures surge, and the market is clearly bracing for further tightening. The article from CME this week points out that screwworm fears and low feeder availability are pressing futures higher. Combine that with cautious buying and limited inventory updates coming in, and you've got a market that's driving on low visibility but stepping on the gas anyway. <break time="0.3s"/> The real question is whether we're overreacting to headlines or genuinely pricing in supply disruption that'll hit us through spring. I'm leaning toward the latter, honestly, because the fundamentals line up with the emotion this time. You been hearing the same tension locally? Jim: You bet, Brock. Talked with a buddy down near Lubbock who says the barn was hopping Monday. Folks aren't just selling—they're shuffling risk. Everybody's trying to guess when the screwworm hammer's really gonna hit. Brock: Yeah, and that makes a perfect transition here, because that screwworm situation out of Mexico is no longer just a headline—it's a genuine market mover. <break time="0.5s"/> According to the data and recent reports, we've now had two confirmed cases of New World screwworm in Mexico in just the last forty-eight hours. The newest case was found in Tamaulipas, only a hundred ninety-seven miles from the U.S. border. That affected calf was just six days old. <break time="0.4s"/> Now, this isn't just a matter of veterinary concern—it's a disruption to livestock trade. The U.S.-Mexico border has been effectively shuttered to live animal trading for now, and with Mexico being a major source of feeders—especially lightweight stock during the winter months—that closure stings. What we're seeing is market anticipation of reduced supply feeding into the system through the spring months. That explains why we have futures reacting as aggressively as they are. It's not just the infection—it's the time lag and ripple effects we're pricing in. <break time="0.3s"/> And while it all sounds urgent and new, history actually tells us this problem isn't exactly fresh. Jim, I imagine you've seen this kind of thing before? Jim: Oh son, you nailed it. <break time="0.4s"/> I remember clear as day back in '92 when we had that big screwworm scare creeping up from Mexico. I was running about three hundred head back then, and let me tell you—we were checking every single animal twice a day for signs. My neighbor Tommy—God rest him—lost three calves before they even knew what they were dealing with. You had government folks walking pens with notepads and magnifying glasses. USDA put up sterile fly release stations every few miles along the border. Felt like we were in some kind of military operation. And the market? Hoo boy, it didn't breathe right for three months. Brock: Wow. That's an incredible picture, Jim—and honestly, eerie how similar it sounds to now. <break time="0.3s"/> The article from the Texas Ag Commissioner this week came with a strong warning to producers: stay vigilant. While government intervention and past success with sterile fly programs give us hope this will remain a regional issue, that's no guarantee. What it does mean is that cow-calf producers and backgrounders near the southern border need to be not only watching their herd health, but also their marketing timelines. <break time="0.3s"/> Any delay in feeder movement across the border could create temporary price shocks or inventory gaps. And depending how long this lingers, spring placements into feedlots could tighten further. We could be looking at reduced feeder availability well into April or May if this thing doesn't get contained quickly. That's going to put even more upward pressure on replacement costs and make anyone thinking about herd expansion think twice. Jim: Like I always say—sometimes the old threats are still the ones you gotta watch closest. They don't go out of style just 'cause we wanna forget 'em. Brock: Exactly. And for folks in the Panhandle or southern Arizona, this is the time to make sure your biosecurity plans are working and your local ag offices are looped in. <break time="0.5s"/> Alright, shifting gears now to something that ties right into this—market pricing and trading activity. Over the past week, we've seen this tight supply scenario play out at the sale barn and in packer negotiations. According to the AgCenter's cattle report from January fifth, packers are coming in with dressed bids at three hundred sixty dollars, and live cattle trading has moved up into that two hundred thirty dollar and fifty cent to two thirty-two range. <break time="0.3s"/> That's up a couple bucks from last week, but what's more telling is how early those packer bids came in—and how aggressive they were. We had reports of plus one and plus two dollars right out of the gate, telling us they're not just topping but actively chasing inventory. The pressure right now falls squarely on feedlot managers deciding how long to hold out. With corn staying relatively stable and winter gains looking decent in most regions, there's an argument to hold off and try to pick up more market premium—but you risk missing the window if more widespread illness or trade slowdowns hit feeder availability. What's your take on that timing, Jim? Jim: My granddaddy used to say, "Don't blink when the bull's charging—either rope it or get out the way." You keep waiting on a sweeter bid, and that trailer gate might close without you. Brock: Well said. <break time="0.3s"/> On top of all that, there's a legal cloud overhead with the Tyson Foods update. They've agreed to pay eighty-two point five million dollars to settle allegations of beef price fixing from way back—2015 to 2022. That lawsuit claimed grocers and sellers suffered artificially inflated prices from restricted supply practices. <break time="0.4s"/> Now, technically, this lawsuit doesn't affect current pricing directly—but it does cast a long shadow over packer-consumer relations. Packers may be incentivized to show more transparent bidding, and you could see some retail chains responding with more scrutiny on supply chain ethics. That adds a layer of uncertainty and potentially even more competition for immediate cattle. The optics alone might keep packers from getting too cute with their bidding strategies, at least for a while. Jim: You try to fix prices and still lose eighty million dollars? That's like trying to cheat at poker and still fold before the flop. Brock: Ha! That might be the line of the week right there, Jim. <break time="0.3s"/> But yes, while the big packing houses can absorb those kinds of settlements, they don't like the publicity. In the near term, it may lead to more cautious but competitive bidding to avoid additional scrutiny—which could, ironically, benefit sellers trying to move cattle in the next few weeks. So if you've got finished cattle sitting in the lot right now, this might actually be your moment. <break time="0.5s"/> Alright, let's round things out with an eye toward the global arena—because while the U.S. supply chain is rattled, international players aren't taking a breather. <break time="0.4s"/> To round out today's discussion, we'd be remiss if we didn't talk about Brazil. According to recent data, Brazil beef exports have officially topped three point one million metric tonnes through November of last year. That's an eight point four percent increase year-over-year. Pair that with domestic production reaching eight point one million tonnes through the third quarter and the slaughter of over thirty-one million head—and what we've got is a freight train of output moving into global markets. These numbers are eye-catching not just for their size, but for the pace. Brazil's aggressive push stems from both strong international demand and favorable production economics. With China continuing to be a major buyer and Europe importing heavily despite local protests, Brazil is positioning itself as an essential exporter. <break time="0.3s"/> And that puts U.S. beef in a tricky spot, because we're competing on volume in some markets and quality in others, and right now our herd size doesn't let us do both. Jim: Yeah, exporting so much beef you'd think they had cattle growing outta sugarcane. Brock: It certainly feels like that. <break time="0.3s"/> And with France now tightening food import checks amid growing protests from domestic producers, we're likely to see increased attention on Brazilian production standards and animal health protocols. That's something U.S. beef advocates can capitalize on, especially in premium markets. But we shouldn't underestimate the challenge. When global buyers are facing tight supply chains and inflation pressure, lower-cost protein sources gain favor quickly—even if they lack the same traceability and consumer marketing background as U.S. beef. <break time="0.4s"/> From a U.S. producer standpoint, this all comes down to differentiation. If we can't win on volume, we've got to win on story—quality assurance, sustainability certification, and value-added claims. That's going to be the talking point of twenty twenty-six, especially if domestic herd sizes stay contracted. Does that match what you're seeing on your end? Jim: Well Brock, I've always said—beef's gonna sell on either price or pride. If you ain't winning the first, you better load up on the second. Brock: Exactly. And with high feed costs and limited inventory still hanging around, we better make every calf count toward that pride column. <break time="0.5s"/> As we finish up today's episode, here are a couple takeaways. First, watch feeder markets for volatility around the screwworm situation—especially if you're anywhere near the southern states. Second, if you're holding finished cattle, these early packer bids are an opportunity to grab higher prices before we see potential plateauing. And lastly, keep your eye on international flows—Brazil's volume is surging, but that doesn't mean U.S. beef can't find premium markets if the messaging is right. <break time="0.3s"/> We've got the quality, we've got the reputation, we just need to make sure we're telling that story loud enough to cut through the noise. Jim, any final thoughts for the week? Jim: Just this—markets don't wait for your decision. If you're not ahead of the game, you're behind the guy who is. Brock: That's why we're out here week after week. <break time="0.3s"/> Thanks, folks, for tuning in to this mid-week check with the "Cattle Market Guys." We'll catch y'all next time. Until then—keep your boots dry and your numbers sharp. Jim: And if you see a screwworm inspector at your gate, don't offer him coffee—offer him your ear. He knows something you need to hear. Brock: Take care, everybody. ======================================== END OF SCRIPT ========================================

CATTLE MARKET GUYS - PODCAST SCRIPT ======================================== Generated: 2025-12-24T12:40:48.640Z Episode Type: wednesday_update Episode Date: December 24, 2025 ======================================== SCRIPT STATISTICS ======================================== Total Words: 17 Estimated Duration: 0.1 minutes Brock: - Words: 9 (52.9%) - Speaking Time: ~0.1 minutes Jim: - Words: 8 (47.1%) - Speaking Time: ~0.1 minutes ======================================== FULL SCRIPT ======================================== Brock: Welcome back to another Wednesday edition of Cattle Market Guys. <break time="0.5s"/> It's December twenty-fourth, the holiday hustle is in full swing, but there's no slowing down for the cattle markets this week. I'm Brock, coming to you from cold and crunchy Nebraska. Jim: And I'm Jim, down here in West Texas where my stockings are hung, the brisket's rubbed, and the market's buzzing louder than the grandkids on eggnog. Brock: Alright, let's start with a look at this week's numbers. <break time="0.5s"/> We're seeing firmer tones across the board, especially for the lightweight calves. Looking at steers in the five hundred to five-forty-nine-pound weight range, the average price this week landed at three hundred seventy-five dollars and eight cents per hundredweight. That's a solid base, but what really grabs your attention is the futures side. Front-month feeder cattle futures are trading at three hundred forty dollars and sixty cents, and the next month is just a touch lower at three hundred thirty-five dollars and thirty-eight cents. <break time="0.3s"/> That kind of futures compression indicates the market's expecting some near-term strength that might weaken slightly further out. But keep in mind, it's not falling off a cliff — just softening. And the projections are painting a fairly bullish picture. Looking one week out, national predictions show average steer prices in that same weight class could rise to four hundred seventeen dollars and seventy cents per hundredweight. Two weeks out, the projection climbs another notch to four hundred twenty-one dollars and fifty-six cents. Even three and four weeks out, we're still looking at levels above four hundred dollars. <break time="0.4s"/> That sustained strength reflects pretty tight fundamentals heading into the new year. One of the articles out this week from The Cattle Site points to exactly that — tight cattle supply continues to put upward pressure on beef futures as we close out twenty-twenty-five. Traders are positioning ahead of the holidays, but it's not just technical moves; the underlying fundamentals support this rally. Jim, you've watched a lot of Decembers roll by — how's this one stack up for you? Jim: Well Brock, if Christmas cheer came in the form of calf prices, we'd all be singin' hallelujah right now. Three seventy-five on the board and more to come? You throw that in Santa's sack, and I might let him run the ranch for a week. Brock: Now let's dig into what's really driving these prices — and that's supply, or more specifically, the lack thereof. <break time="0.5s"/> This week's reports laid it out pretty clearly. Feedlot inventory is now down two-point-one percent year over year, landing at eleven point seven two seven million head. That's the lowest December feedlot number we've seen since twenty-seventeen. And the trend isn't just monthly noise — we've had thirteen consecutive months of declining inventory. <break time="0.3s"/> That's over a year of consistent contraction in cattle on feed numbers. Combine that with commercial red meat production down seven percent compared to this time last year — that's four point two six billion pounds of production in November — and you've got a recipe that explains why wholesale and futures prices are pushing higher. November placements came in at just eighty-nine percent of last year, and it's the smallest November placement total in the entire history of the series. That means we're not just feeding fewer cattle — we're putting fewer calves in the pipeline for the months ahead. <break time="0.4s"/> This situation is setting the tone not just for late December and early January, but for the entire first half of twenty-twenty-six. With lighter inventories and tighter supplies, we could see strong support under cash and futures prices — assuming demand holds. Now, this ain't the first time the industry's been here. Jim, didn't you live through another big contraction year back in the nineties? Jim: Sure did. Back in nineteen ninety-six, we had a hell of a drought tear through the Southern Plains, and corn prices climbed up near five bucks a bushel. Now back then, that was like the sky falling. <break time="0.4s"/> I remember my neighbor Earl — tough old guy, never panicked — but that May, he had to unload his yearling program five months early. Just didn't have the feed to carry 'em. We watched feedlot inventories drop like dominoes all the way into December. And I'll tell you what — that winter, the yards were as empty as a church on Super Bowl Sunday. <break time="0.3s"/> And then came ninety-seven and ninety-eight — prices came roaring back. But not before the industry took its lumps. Brock: Interesting... that's what we might be walking into again. Maybe not quite as dramatic, but the cycle's rhyme is familiar. It's one of those situations where short-term pain leads to longer-term opportunity — but only for those who can weather it. And here's the kicker — with fewer cattle coming into feedlots this winter, producers who've got calves in the pipeline after spring might find themselves in a good leverage position, especially if live cattle prices hold firm and feeder buyers get more aggressive. <break time="0.3s"/> So what do you do if you're holding calves? <break time="0.3s"/> Patience might be more than a virtue this winter — it might just be profitable. Now that we've laid the groundwork on tight supply, let's talk about what's happening in the cash and futures trade. According to reports out this week, we saw cash trade in the South settle at two hundred twenty-nine dollars, while dressed trades up in the North were hitting three hundred fifty-eight. That's one dollar lower than the previous two weeks in the Southern region, but steady to one dollar higher in the North. So even though the South saw a bit of a dip, it's minor and hardly a cause for alarm. In fact, the broader futures market shows no sign of nerves. Traders are bullish heading into the holiday — helped along by higher wholesale beef prices and a general expectation of continued tightness in the supply chain. <break time="0.4s"/> The article from CME this week summed it up nicely: "Beef markets firm as tight cattle supply lifts futures." We're not seeing fear pricing or liquidation-style movement. It's orderly, confident, and supply-driven. That means folks are stepping into the market not under duress but with intent. Here's a number worth noting: even with the recent gains, the spread between cash prices and nearby futures remains relatively wide. <break time="0.3s"/> That could indicate opportunity for hedging or basis plays once we get deeper into January. Does that tone match what you're seeing on the producer side? Jim: Sure does. A buddy of mine just sold some fats two days ago — he said, "I didn't get rich, but I ain't cryin' either." When you're landing dressed trades at three fifty-eight a week before Christmas, that's a pretty fair way to close out the year. Brock: That's about the mood — cautious optimism tempered with some real math. <break time="0.3s"/> Now's a good time for producers to keep an eye on spreads, watch basis levels, and evaluate forward contracts where available. One misstep right now could cost you more than bad weather did last spring. And speaking of things that can catch you off guard — before we wrap, I want to touch on a different kind of concern: regulatory uncertainty. <break time="0.5s"/> Two key issues are hanging over the cattle industry right now, and producers would be wise to follow them closely. First, there's the problem with mandatory market reporting. As of this week, USDA still hasn't submitted its formal plans on the required reporting structure — and that's creating a transparency gap. We rely on those reports to make informed decisions, especially when we're talking about cash and contract pricing. Without them, blind spots develop fast, and that's dangerous in a market this tight. Second, the debate over country-of-origin labeling — known as COOL — is picking up steam again. In a recent article titled "Look Before You Leap," Beef Magazine warns that while consumer demand for domestic beef is strong, the implementation of new labeling laws could lead to unintended consequences. <break time="0.3s"/> If enforcement mechanisms or trade implications catch the industry off guard, we may find ourselves with more red tape than red meat profits. These are long shadows creeping up behind fairly bright market conditions. And historically, last-minute regulatory changes — especially ones aimed at market visibility — have caused headaches before. Jim, I know you've got a story tied to this kind of data confusion. Didn't y'all run into something similar back in the late eighties? Jim: Oh, brother... <break time="0.4s"/> Back in nineteen eighty-nine, they rolled out this new USDA market reporting requirement. The idea was fine, but the rollout? A train wreck. I remember bein' at the sale barn that February — me and a couple dozen other ranchers sitting there with our coffee and calving charts — and we're waitin' on the market reporter. He never showed. Not that week, not the next. Three weeks we went without consistent reporting. <break time="0.3s"/> We were flying blind tryin' to price calves. Felt like betting on poker when half the deck's missing. Brock: Wow... that's exactly the concern here. When data breaks down — even temporarily — it undermines confidence across the board. If I can't trust the market signals, my risk goes up, plain and simple. And with tight supplies, strong demand, and high volatility, the margin for error is razor thin. Add in incomplete price discovery, and you've got a recipe for bad decisions. <break time="0.4s"/> So what should producers do? <break time="0.3s"/> First, stay informed. Watch your regional data, talk to your local buyers, and cross-reference whenever you can. Second, advocate. If these reporting issues are hurting your operation, make the noise. And third — when it comes to regulatory changes like COOL, don't assume the labels tell the full story. Keep a business-first approach and evaluate how these shifts affect your margins, not just your marketing. Jim, before we sign off — you got a final thought for the folks headed into Christmas? Jim: Well Brock, if the markets we talked about today were sitting under my tree, I'd say we've been pretty nice this year. But remember — Santa doesn't hedge, and neither should you without doin' your homework. <break time="0.4s"/> And I'll leave you with this: in this business, information is like manure — if you spread it around, everything grows. But if you pile it in one place and ignore it? Well... it starts to stink real fast. Brock: Couldn't have said it better myself, Jim. <break time="0.5s"/> That'll do it for this special mid-week, Christmas Eve market check. We'll be back next week to break down end-of-year pricing and what the early twenty-twenty-six landscape looks like. In the meantime, stay warm, stay sharp, and enjoy time with your families. And if you're out in the pens this week — be safe and keep your footing. Those frozen cow pies are like banana peels with attitude. Jim: And remember folks — whether your tree's got lights or just a few good limbs left, a calf check in the black beats any gift receipt. Merry Christmas, y'all. Brock: We'll see you next time — from all of us at Cattle Market Guys, happy holidays. ======================================== END OF SCRIPT ========================================

CATTLE MARKET GUYS - PODCAST SCRIPT ======================================== Generated: 2025-12-19T12:45:18.350Z Episode Type: friday_wrap Episode Date: December 19, 2025 ======================================== SCRIPT STATISTICS ======================================== Total Words: 20 Estimated Duration: 0.1 minutes Brock: - Words: 10 (50.0%) - Speaking Time: ~0.1 minutes Jim: - Words: 10 (50.0%) - Speaking Time: ~0.1 minutes ======================================== FULL SCRIPT ======================================== Brock: Welcome back to another Friday wrap of the Cattle Market Guys podcast—I'm Brock, coming to you from snowy central Nebraska, and we've got a packed show to send y'all into the weekend a little smarter and hopefully a bit more prepared. <break time="0.3s"/> Cattle prices, packing plant closures, tight supplies, muddy pens… it's the kind of week where producers are scanning everything from the futures board to the 14-day weather radar just trying to make sense of where we're heading. Let's get into it. Jim: And I'm Jim, still kickin' in West Texas. This week's been like tryin' to push a rope uphill—messy markets, weather messier, and prices all over the map. Brock: Ha—that's about right. <break time="0.5s"/> Alright, let's kick it off with a look at the latest numbers. According to the data, average prices for five- to five-forty-nine weight steers are sitting at around three hundred seventy dollars and ninety-seven cents per hundredweight. Compared to just a few weeks ago, that's a decent bump, and those midweight calves are leading the charge right now. <break time="0.3s"/> Futures are showing some disconnect though. The front-month feeder cattle contract is coming in at three hundred thirty-seven dollars and fifty-two cents, while next month's contract is a bit softer at three hundred thirty-two dollars. So while cash has been climbing, futures seem to be hesitating—likely reflecting concerns over shrink in demand or lingering production concerns. <break time="0.4s"/> Now, here's where it gets interesting: The national prediction for the next one to four weeks has prices continuing that upward trend. The one-week outlook puts steers in that five hundred to five-forty-nine-pound range at four hundred ten dollars and ninety-six cents per hundredweight. By week four, the forecast still holds strong, with prices hovering at four hundred eight dollars and forty-seven cents. So the models are expecting continued strength as we move into January, even as futures reflect some caution. This kind of divergence always makes me pay closer attention. <break time="0.3s"/> What's your take on that spread? Jim: Well, these mixed signals remind me of a two-headed calf—you don't know which way it's gonna turn. I've always said, follow the cattle, not just the contracts. Brock: That's the truth. And according to the latest article from The Cattle Site, the current strength we're seeing is mostly being chalked up to tight supplies. Packers are scrambling a bit to fill chains, and that's showing up in the wholesale beef prices too. <break time="0.3s"/> So bottom line this week: cash prices are solid, futures are skittish, and short-term forecasts are bullish. Not a bad cocktail if you're looking to market gains heading into the new year. <break time="0.5s"/> Now let's move to perhaps the most disruptive headline of the week—and that's the plant closures announced by the industry's biggest players. Tyson is shutting down its Lexington, Nebraska plant, effective January 20th. That's a facility employing about thirty-two hundred workers. Meanwhile, their Amarillo, Texas location is being reduced to a single shift. On top of that, JBS is closing the Swift Beef operation in Riverside County, California, come February 2nd. That one's a bit smaller but still significant, with three hundred seventy-four employees being laid off. <break time="0.4s"/> This isn't just noise—this is structural. These are major players adjusting their long-term strategies. And for producers, particularly those marketing fats in proximity to those facilities, the impact could be felt immediately. It's not just a matter of longer haul times—but potentially lower bids, scheduling delays, and thinner local competition among buyers. You've seen this before, Jim. What's a move like this do to a local market? Jim: Oh, Brock, I remember clear as day—back in '98, IBP shut that big ol' plant up in West Point, Nebraska. Had something like twelve hundred folks working the floor. Me and three other boys from out near Ogallala had to ship our steers two hundred extra miles just to get 'em processed. Diesel was cheaper back then, sure, but even still—the margins got thinned out real quick. Brock: Yeah, and that was back when the consolidation wave really kicked off, right? <break time="0.3s"/> These closures coming now, in 2025, are less about overcapacity and more about efficiency and maybe shifting demand patterns. But from the producer side, the lesson still applies: you've gotta stay flexible. Because when the big packers start making moves, it ripples through the whole supply chain. <break time="0.3s"/> Also worth noting, these closures are in different regions—Nebraska, California, Texas—which spreads out the impact. But it also shows how widespread restructuring might become. If you're relying on a single plant to move your cattle, or getting squeezed by limited local kill capacity, this is the time to be checking your contracts, verifying your transportation options, and maybe even re-evaluating your marketing calendar. <break time="0.3s"/> And look, beyond just packer access, there's the employment side too. That's thirty-two hundred families in Lexington, Nebraska, who are going into the holiday season with uncertain futures. That has downstream effects on rural economies, vet clinics, feed dealers, you name it. This is a livestock issue, sure—but it's also a community one. So don't just watch the kill numbers next month. Pay attention to how basis shifts regionally, how buyer behavior adjusts, and how your own position might need to evolve. Jim: Rule number one: never build your plan around just one packer. That's about as useful as a screen door on a submarine. Brock: Ha—well said. <break time="0.5s"/> Alright, shifting gears to our next topic: the fundamentals behind the recent price action. Let's talk about the underpinning strength we're seeing despite all this volatility. According to recent reports, cash cattle prices are currently sitting at two hundred twenty-eight dollars, while dressed prices in the northern feedyards rose by two bucks to three hundred fifty-seven. Not insignificant, especially this time of year when we often see softer demand post-holidays. <break time="0.3s"/> The Cattle Site notes the rally in futures this past week was helped by tightening supply and technical buying interest. Wholesale beef prices are climbing too, which shows that the demand end—at least at the distributor and retail level—is holding firm. On top of that, packer interest seems to be shifting earlier in the week, likely to secure enough head before weather or logistical issues pinch their margins. <break time="0.3s"/> All these factors combined suggest that the market has more strength than the futures boards have been pricing in recently. From what you're hearing, are feeders feeling confident or cautious with those kinds of moves? Jim: Well, depends on who you're askin'. Some of these fellas feel like the rug's been pulled enough times they're sittin' on two legs of the chair. But yeah, folks around here are holdin' out for higher bids—that's how strong the pen talk has been lately. Brock: That tracks with what we're seeing in the numbers. The futures got a boost earlier this week but still haven't quite caught up to the firmness in the wholesale and cash markets. That kind of lag in futures pricing can be both a risk and an opportunity depending on how you're positioned. <break time="0.4s"/> Another factor? Mud. The reports this week highlight rough pen conditions in Nebraska feedyards. And let's be real—nothing slows down cattle movement and compromises weight gains like knee-deep slop in December. That's got packers making adjustments to their purchasing strategies as well. <break time="0.3s"/> In other words, if margin pressure builds on the packer side because of weather, you might see more aggressive competition in the cash market, at least in the short term. Could be something to keep an eye on as we wrap up the year and head into January placements. <break time="0.5s"/> And speaking of weather, that brings us to our last deep dive this episode: drought, cold snaps, and the ongoing tug-of-war between the eastern chill and western warmth. This week's drought monitor showed continued warm trends throughout the western states, while the east has been colder than normal. In the northwest, the Cascades and Rockies are getting hit with snow, which could help long-term water prospects but isn't much help in the near term for producers operating at lower elevations. <break time="0.3s"/> Closer to home, Nebraska hasn't just been cold—it's been muddy. Pen conditions across many yards are rough, and that has a direct impact on feed efficiency and market readiness. You get enough stuck loaders and off-weight cohorts, and suddenly your expected out date is a week—or even two—later than planned. I know weather's always played a big role in your decision-making over the years, Jim. Does this week's situation remind you of anything? Jim: Oh boy, does it ever. This reminds me of that hard drought back in '88. By July, our pastures down in Menard County looked like concrete, and the stock tanks ran drier than corn liquor. We had to liquidate nearly half the herd by mid-August—way earlier than normal. And the kicker was, everybody else was doing the same thing. The sale barn over in San Angelo had trailers backed up two miles long. Prices couldn't help but fall—fifteen cents a pound lower than the year before. Brock: Wow. <break time="0.3s"/> That kind of involuntary movement will shift a market quick. And it's a lesson we keep relearning—Mother Nature doesn't care about your marketing calendar. If pen conditions degrade or storms roll through, you may lose your window for optimal pricing. <break time="0.3s"/> On the West Coast, that heat isn't doing cow-calf guys many favors either. Dry soil profiles heading into winter can mean limited grass early in the spring. And while snowpack in the high elevations is welcome, runoff takes months to help pastures. So every region's watching a different set of variables, but they all boil down to access—be it feed, water, or favorable selling conditions. <break time="0.4s"/> Bottom line? Producers need to stay nimble. Weather-related delays in finishing could lead to tighter supplies in February and March, which in turn may support prices. But if the weather swings the other way and placements flood the pipeline, futures might start correcting downward. <break time="0.3s"/> If you're not already tracking the weather patterns two to three weeks out, now's the time to start. Could be the difference between hitting your grid or missing your premiums. Jim: Ain't that the truth. Mother Nature's the only force that don't negotiate. Brock: Definitely something to remember, especially with forecasts showing continued variability across key cattle states. <break time="0.5s"/> Alright folks, that wraps up our Friday edition of the Cattle Market Guys podcast. We covered a lot—strong calf prices, futures that are lagging, beef plants shutting down, packers adjusting, and the weather doing what the weather does best: keep us honest. <break time="0.3s"/> Looking ahead, all eyes are on how the packers manage reduced capacity, whether this cash market momentum holds through the holidays, and what January placement intentions might look like. Jim, any final thoughts for folks heading into the weekend? Jim: Well, if I had a nickel for every time we said "watch the weather" and "price talks, but basis walks," I could probably open my own processing plant. But seriously, now's the time to double-check your risk plans for Q1, keep your buyer relationships tight, and don't lock in just because you're tired. There's still money to be made if you play it smart. Brock: Wise words. Thanks as always to our listeners—we're grateful to be part of your weekly grind. Be sure to share this episode with your neighbors, and give us a follow wherever you get your podcasts. <break time="0.3s"/> We'll catch you next time on the Cattle Market Guys. Jim: And remember, folks—winter's just gettin' started, but so are the opportunities. Keep your hay dry, your gates closed, and your mind open. Y'all be good now. ======================================== END OF SCRIPT ========================================

CATTLE MARKET GUYS - PODCAST SCRIPT ======================================== Generated: 2025-12-12T16:55:09.689Z Episode Type: friday_wrap Episode Date: December 12, 2025 ======================================== SCRIPT STATISTICS ======================================== Total Words: 33 Estimated Duration: 0.2 minutes Brock: - Words: 19 (57.6%) - Speaking Time: ~0.1 minutes Jim: - Words: 14 (42.4%) - Speaking Time: ~0.1 minutes ======================================== FULL SCRIPT ======================================== Brock: Welcome back to the Cattle Market Guys podcast—it's Friday, December 12th, 2025, and we're here with your end-of-week wrap-up. I'm Brock, coming to you from the cold Nebraska plains, and as always, we've got the man from West Texas himself—Jim riding shotgun with stories, sass, and a few scars of wisdom. <break time="0.4s"/> Now, it's been a wild week in the cattle markets, and there's quite a bit to unpack. We're seeing some interesting divergence between cash prices and wholesale beef values, some big policy news out of Washington, and even some developments on the animal health front that deserve attention. Jim: Scars, stories, and a whole lotta dirt under the boots, partner. Brock: That's the truth. <break time="0.5s"/> Let's jump right into the market snapshot for this week. Looking at the national averages, we saw 500-549 pound steers trading at $406.62 per hundredweight—relatively firm, especially given the seasonal softness we often expect headed into mid-December. Now, here's where it gets interesting. <break time="0.3s"/> The one-week outlook has those same-weight calves bumping up to $412.44 per hundred, but then we're looking at a pretty sharp pullback in the two- and three-week forecasts—dropping into the mid-$370s before recovering slightly to about $387 by early January. That short-term rise is largely supported by current supply constraints, and when you look at the futures board, you can see that story playing out. Front-month and next-month cattle futures are both holding steady at $32,983.12, which reflects that cautious optimism traders are feeling right now. Brock: What's really catching my attention is the disconnect we're seeing in the headlines this week. <break time="0.4s"/> Despite softer wholesale beef values, cattle futures have stayed firm—that's based on reports from CME and other industry sources. Traders are seeing tighter supply pipelines, and that's giving futures a backbone even if boxed beef prices are under pressure. Jim, what's your take on that? Jim: Firm futures when beef's weak on the shelf? That's like holdin' a poker face with a sorry hand if you ask me. Some folks are bluffin', but the smart ones can still read the table. Brock: Well, they're definitely reading something, and I think what they're reading is that supply fundamentals are outweighing short-term beef demand concerns—at least for now. That's a story worth watching closely, especially for producers working out fourth-quarter marketing plans. You've got to think about whether you're going to catch that short-term bump next week or if you're better positioned to wait for the recovery we're seeing projected in early January. <break time="0.3s"/> It's not an easy call, and timing matters more than usual when you're looking at this kind of volatility. Jim: Gotta choose your chute wisely this time of year. Send 'em too early and you leave dollars on the table; too late and you're feedin' hay like a Vegas buffet. Brock: Ha! Very true. <break time="0.5s"/> Alright, let's talk about what's really driving these numbers right now—and I want to dig into the fundamentals because this week's cash trade tells a pretty clear story. We saw live cattle selling at $230 and dressed cattle in the northern plains running up to $355. That's a $5 bump on live prices and a full $10 higher on dressed cattle compared to the week prior. <break time="0.3s"/> That trend tracks with what we've been hearing about tight supplies in the pipeline, meaning there's limited volume to meet steady-to-firm demand. Analysts from CME and other sources are pointing to those tight supplies as the key price support right now. Brock: Even as wholesale beef prices have seen some slippage, traders are hesitant to bail out of long positions. The futures market this week edged higher across most contracts, and that tells me we've got a pricing environment that isn't driven so much by packer margins this week, but by fundamental cattle availability. <break time="0.3s"/> It's particularly telling that even with some cash trade volatility in the southern plains, northern region prices are staying resilient. Packers are still showing they'll pay up when they need volume, and that's important. It signals to me that we could be setting up for continued strength into the early part of Q1—unless placements suddenly rise or demand takes an unexpected hit in retail. Does that match what you're seeing down your way? Jim: Well, it brings back memories, I'll tell ya that. <break time="0.4s"/> Back in '87, I remember we had what felt like the perfect run in September. Prices were sizzling—I mean folks were talkin' vacations and gooseneck upgrades. Then came that stock market crash in October—Black Monday—and let me tell you, it knocked the wind right outta the cattle market. Brock: Wow... I can only imagine. Jim: I had three loads of heavy feeders just ready to roll... before we watched those futures limit down for days on end. I ended up sittin' on those steers an extra 45 days, feedin' 'em way past their prime. We finally caught a break end of November—but it was a gut check. Brock: That's a powerful example, Jim—and it gets at the heart of something important right now. <break time="0.3s"/> The markets may look bullish due to tight supplies, but the risk is still there. Consumer demand, macroeconomic shifts, even global trade events—they can all turn a market on its head in a matter of days. The lesson here is don't just ride the current wave without thinking four weeks out. Those price predictions are showing some volatility for a reason. We're seeing a likely uptick next week, but two weeks after that, we may be bottoming out before climbing again. <break time="0.3s"/> Producers who wait for signals in real time might miss the early curve, and by then you're playing catch-up instead of staying ahead. Jim: Plan for the peak, prepare for the plummet. And build in some wiggle room—flexibility in your marketing plan is worth its weight in timothy hay. Brock: Absolutely. Just because futures firmed this week doesn't mean it's all green lights ahead. Keep tabs on placements, feedlot inventories, and retail movement in the coming weeks. <break time="0.5s"/> Now, let's shift gears and talk about some policy news that came out of Washington this week—because there's a $12 billion story that deserves some attention. A new farm aid package was unveiled, aiming to offset trade-related losses in the ag sector. While cattle aren't the primary target of the aid, there's talk that beef producers may benefit indirectly, especially those impacted by reduced export flow earlier this year. The USDA's expected to outline eligibility rules before the end of the year. Brock: This isn't the first time we've seen government step in with large-scale support, and in the past, the criteria have varied widely. <break time="0.3s"/> If you're a producer who dealt with slowdowns in shipping, added cold storage time, or loss of export premiums, those line items may be worth tracking now that aid details are being finalized. Simultaneously, there's been growing momentum behind beef inspection reform. A few articles this week highlighted calls for increased transparency in labeling—both for origin and production method. That won't immediately shift cattle values, but make no mistake, it sets a tone. Regulatory signals now become market forces later. If labeling requirements tighten or inspections change pace, that can bottleneck processing or introduce new verification costs. Jim: Son, anytime the government knocks on your gate with a clipboard, it's never 'cause they wanna lend you a post-pounder. Brock: Ha! That's the truth. <break time="0.3s"/> And we're also hearing more chatter around the Beef Checkoff program lately. Some producers voiced concern during roundtable discussions this week—questioning how Checkoff funds are spent and whether they reflect grassroots priorities. While those conversations are long-running, they're gaining traction again as cost pressures rise. When feed costs are high and margins are tight, folks start getting real curious about where every nickel's headed. <break time="0.4s"/> It's something producers should monitor—not just from a financial standpoint, but from an industry reputation angle. Consumers are reading every label, questioning every claim. If policy reforms prompt cleaner labeling or traceability systems, that could be a double-edged sword. More transparency may demand more of your recordkeeping and compliance on the producer end. Jim: And if you're keepin' records with a marker on a feed sack, might be time for an upgrade. Brock: Good advice, Jim. Whether it's eligibility for support payments, changes in inspection policy, or lobbying around transparency, the key is staying engaged. <break time="0.3s"/> The policy you ignore today may be the one squeezing your margins tomorrow. So don't just wait for the rules to land on your desk—get ahead of them, understand them, and position yourself accordingly. <break time="0.5s"/> Alright, let's round out today's wrap-up with some updates in cattle health management, because there's actually some good news on this front. The big headline this week comes out of the FDA—conditional approval has been granted for Merck's new pour-on treatment, EXZOLT CATTLE-CA1, aimed at controlling New World Screwworm infestations. It's a topical treatment and represents a step forward on the prevention front, especially for operations in screwworm-prone areas. Brock: Now, New World Screwworm isn't active across the entire U.S., but any rise in cases—even isolated ones—can be incredibly costly and labor intensive. The conditional approval gives veterinarians and livestock managers another tool in the box, particularly when you're trying to get ahead of infestation during calving or high-stress periods. <break time="0.3s"/> While this isn't a widespread concern today, product development like this tells us the industry is staying proactive. Don't forget—increased global movement of both animals and people raises the odds of regional outbreaks turning national. Having tools that are shelf-ready before the panic sets in? That's a big win. You've seen this kind of thing before... Jim: Oh yeah. <break time="0.4s"/> Back in 1990, we had that scare down here in Texas. USDA had been tellin' us since '82 that we were screwworm-free, but that summer, my neighbor lost three calves before anyone caught it. We went from relaxed to red-alert overnight. Brock: Wow. Jim: I was runnin' cattle through the chute like clockwork—checkin' wounds daily, sprayin', taggin', the whole nine yards. Took us months, but that sterile fly program saved our bacon. Started watchin' every fly like it owed me money. Brock: That's a hard-earned lesson, Jim, and it reinforces just how important early detection is—and how much we all rely on constant vigilance even when we think the threat's behind us. <break time="0.3s"/> The conditional approval for EXZOLT isn't just an innovation—it's also a reminder. Complacency costs money, and sometimes even livestock. Producers, especially those in southern states, should talk with their vets about emerging prevention tools like this. Staying ahead of screwworm outbreaks or even rare flare-ups can mean the difference between a routine check and a quarantine zone. When it comes to herd health, you can't afford to be reactive—you've got to be early, thorough, and deliberate. Jim: When it comes to herd health, be early, be thorough, and don't cheap out. A ten-cent shortcut'll cost you ten grand come branding season. Brock: Strong words, and accurate. The screwworm issue may not be front-page news in every county, but treatments like EXZOLT, and the attention around them, remind us health management is never "set it and forget it." It's steady, it's deliberate, and it's evolving. <break time="0.5s"/> That brings us to the close of this week's Cattle Market Guys Friday Wrap. We hit the major points—strong cash trade despite softer beef values, futures holding firm thanks to limited supply, a substantial new farm aid package on the table, meat inspection reforms on the horizon, and a promising new pour-on treatment for screwworms. Before we sign off, a quick reminder: keep your eyes on next week's price forecasts. We're looking at a short bump in calf values before potential softening near year's end. If your sale window is flexible, use that forecast to your advantage. Jim: And don't bet the ranch on December sunshine—it's got a short fuse and a long shadow. Brock: As always, you can find full links to the stories we mentioned in today's description. We appreciate you riding along with us each week. If you're finding this podcast helpful, leave us a review, send us questions, or share it with a neighbor who might benefit from what we're talking about here. Jim: Or at least play it loud in the barn so the cows get a little smarter too. Brock: Ha! We'll be back next Friday with another deep dive into the markets, policy shifts, and everything happening across cattle country. Until then, this is Brock... Jim: ...and Jim, remindin' ya—keep your boots dusty, your feed dry, and your mouth shut when the auctioneer starts yappin'. Brock: Take care, folks. ======================================== END OF SCRIPT ========================================

CATTLE MARKET GUYS - PODCAST SCRIPT ======================================== Generated: 2025-12-09T15:15:22.006Z Episode Type: wednesday_update Episode Date: December 9, 2025 ======================================== SCRIPT STATISTICS ======================================== Total Words: 1662 Estimated Duration: 11.1 minutes Brock: - Words: 1346 (81.0%) - Speaking Time: ~9.0 minutes Jim: - Words: 316 (19.0%) - Speaking Time: ~2.1 minutes ======================================== FULL SCRIPT ======================================== Brock: Welcome back to another edition of *Cattle Market Guys*. I'm Brock, coming to you from Nebraska where the snowflakes are flying and the spreadsheets are busy. <break time="0.3s"/> Jim's with me from West Texas—he brought his winter hat and his wisdom. How you holding up down there, Jim? Jim: Well, Brock, it might be December, but I still ain't traded in my straw hat. Cold down here is just 60 degrees and a stiff breeze. Brock: Fair enough. Let's kick things off with our *Latest Market Snapshot*. <break time="0.5s"/> Looking at the data coming in through December 9th, we've got a big mover in the 500 to 549-pound steers. That category's averaging $406.63 per hundredweight nationally. That's strong money for this time of year and reflects the significant cash cattle rebound going on. Futures for both the front month and next month contracts are also reflecting optimism, sitting at 32,983. That's a technical lift we've needed, and cash fundamentals are the driver. <break time="0.4s"/> The article from *Beef Magazine* dated December 9th reports that fed cattle in the North traded from $220 to $225 per hundredweight, which is up $10 to $15 from the previous week. That's a sizable jump. Meanwhile, looking ahead, short-term forecasts show prices could strengthen further. Next-week predictions for our 500-549 weight steers are at $412.44 per hundredweight. But after that, week three dips to $375.13 and then rebounds slightly to $387.27 by week four. <break time="0.3s"/> So while we're riding high now, the crystal ball says to keep tabs on volatility. You'd think Santa's been buying feeders instead of toys, right Jim? Jim: That's a heck of a rally for December. Cattle are fat and spirits are high—let's get after it. Brock: Exactly. And with futures for feeder cattle at a five-week high, momentum's favoring sellers at the moment. But as usual, strong cash underpinning is the key. <break time="0.5s"/> So let's dig deeper into what's really driving this surge we're seeing in the cash cattle trade. This isn't just a little bump—packers are aggressively paying up to fill out slaughter schedules through year-end. We've got confirmed reports of live trade in the North at $220 to $225 per hundredweight, and the South's right up there too—between $225 and $226. Dressed cattle went for $340 to $345. These are strong numbers, especially right before Christmas. <break time="0.4s"/> The article from *Beef Magazine* says this jump stems from tighter supplies and strong packer demand. And that's not just impacting cash—it's bleeding over into the futures market. CME reports show live cattle futures hitting a three-week high, while feeders climbed to a five-week peak. That convergence of packers needing volume and producers holding firm on asking prices—that's setting the tone. Now, for producers sitting on cattle, especially in the North, this could be the opportunity they've been waiting on. Holding out may have just paid off, at least for this round. There's always risk when trying to time the market, but right now, the data suggests those who were patient are reaping the rewards. <break time="0.3s"/> Jim, you've seen cycles like this before. What's your take? Jim: Back in '94, we saw something real similar. I remember standing at the sale barn in Amarillo that November, watching the packers practically elbow each other to get a bid in. We'd been holding some yearlings just a shade longer than usual, and boy, it paid off. Prices jumped nearly $8 per hundredweight in just two weeks. My buddy Tommy told me to sell at $68, said I was pushing my luck. But my gut told me packers were gettin' short. By the time Thanksgiving rolled around, we got $76. Now that made for a merry holiday, let me tell you. Brock: That's a perfect illustration of what's unfolding today. Not every cycle rhymes, but it's uncanny how similar the market pressures feel. Packers are short, shelves need filling, and the kill floor's got slots that need booked. From a technical point of view, this also signals near-term strength continuing—especially with December wrapping up and planning starting for Q1. <break time="0.3s"/> The tension between packers needing cattle and producers holding firm—that's what's giving these prices their current lift. For folks wondering if this lasts, keep watching packer behavior and dressed weights throughout the holidays. If they continue to pursue fed cattle aggressively and weights stay relatively flat, we might see support stick even into early January. <break time="0.5s"/> Now, let's shift gears and talk leadership and global dynamics. The U.S. Meat Export Federation just announced its new leadership team for the 2025-2026 cycle. These folks are pivotal in representing U.S. beef interests overseas. Why this matters now is because international demand has been a crucial pillar supporting domestic prices, especially with packers trying to balance export margins. When we see seasoned folks step into new roles at organizations like USMEF, it's worth noting who's steering the ship into what might be a turbulent 2026. <break time="0.4s"/> On the global front, we've also got reports from *The Cattle Site* showing that China's soybean imports just hit their highest November total since 2021. That type of aggressive buying supports feedstuff markets, particularly soybean meal, which ties back into feedlots watching input costs. All in all, this is a two-way street. Leadership at export bodies can open doors or smooth friction for U.S. beef. And demand signals like stronger Chinese imports show where commodity flows might be heading, even outside the direct cattle complex. Does that match what you're seeing, Jim? Jim: That soybean news doesn't surprise me one bit. When China eats, the whole world's grain dryers stay hot. I always say: when the dragon gets hungry, better have your bins ready. Brock: That's accurate. For cattlemen, this uptick could influence feed costs, but also offer soft encouragement that competitive protein exports will continue. With USMEF adjusting its gears, we could see even greater emphasis on expanding into emerging markets where U.S. beef has edge, whether that's Southeast Asia, Mexico, or the Middle East. <break time="0.3s"/> Also worth watching—how this leadership change meshes with broader trade policy. A stable export market helps underpin cattle prices at home. With more beef flowing out, producers have a better shot at maintaining margin, even if domestic packer blend margins get tight. Trust but verify, as they say. Leadership transitions often come with new direction. Let's hope this one brings continued focus on market access and value-added exports. <break time="0.5s"/> For our final segment today, let's dive into the broader economic signals shaping agriculture. Two big headlines stand out this week: one, the federal government is about to announce a $12 billion farm aid package. Two, inflation's staying around 3%, and the Federal Reserve is considering additional interest rate cuts in early 2026. <break time="0.4s"/> Starting with the aid package—reports suggest it aims to cushion farmers dealing with recent price fluctuations and input cost pressure. While cattle prices have lifted now, those operating on narrow breakevens will likely welcome the bridge—whether it's through direct payments, feed cost relief, or insurance subsidies. Now, aid packages are always a double-edged sword. They help relieve short-term strain, but if poorly targeted, they can distort market incentives. However, in times of uncertainty—especially when input costs are volatile—these programs provide critical liquidity. <break time="0.3s"/> On the monetary front, the Fed signaling more rate cuts is meaningful for anyone carrying ag debt. A lower interest environment helps ease operating costs—particularly for feedlots or folks planning capital expenditures in 2026. If inflation continues cooling and credit loosens, expect more flexibility in budgeting and expansion plans. Jim, this one's in your wheelhouse. These moves remind you of any particular year? Jim: Oh yeah, sure do. Back in 1987, things were tough out in cattle country. It was the tail end of the farm crisis, and I'll tell you—we were looking at red ink on every ledger. I remember sittin' at my kitchen table with the banker, young guy named Steve, flipping through overdue bills like it was Sunday reading. Then, just as folks were about out of rope, here comes this federal aid package. Weren't no silver bullet, but it gave a lotta operations breathing room. My neighbor Bob used his payout to restructure his debt—bought himself just enough time to make it to that next calf crop. That man's still raising cattle today. Brock: Wow. That's the deeper truth behind these programs—they aren't permanent fixes. But when timed right, they can help producers make it through volatility without losing the ranch. <break time="0.3s"/> For our listeners, the key takeaway here is to stay alert to where policy is heading. Interest rates, inflation levels, and aid offerings—these drive input costs, credit access, and eventually influence live cattle margins. We may be in a positive pricing window now, but risk management and financial flexibility are just as vital. Between potential rate cuts and government support, the runway's being paved for a calmer financial environment in Q1 of 2026. Pair that with cash market strength and firm export footing, and we might have a surprisingly solid start to the new year—if supply fundamentals hold. <break time="0.5s"/> That wraps up this week's *Mid-Week Market Check* here on *Cattle Market Guys*. We walked through the current price spike in fed cattle, analyzed export and trade leadership, and covered how economic policy might shape the months ahead. Remember folks—when cash is strong like this, it's tempting to chase the market. Just be sure your fundamentals are in order, your books are tight, and your risk plan's on paper. Any final words, Jim? Jim: And if you're gonna ride the wave, make sure your saddle's cinched. Hope ain't a strategy, but it sure beats whining. Brock: Couldn't say it better myself. Thanks again for joining us—be sure to subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. Until next time, stay safe, stay sharp, and keep your marketing head as clear as a cold West Texas morning. <break time="0.3s"/> We'll catch you next week. ======================================== END OF SCRIPT ========================================