Daily Cattle Market Briefings

DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
May 13, 2026

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**1. MARKET SENTIMENT: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH — 6.5/10**

The underlying supply fundamentals remain firmly bullish — the U.S. cattle herd sits at a 75-year low, slaughter is running 34,000 head below year-ago levels, and there is no credible evidence of herd expansion underway. However, significant policy uncertainty from the Trump administration's on-again/off-again beef import tariff relief is creating intense short-term volatility and capping upside momentum. Futures are whipsawing daily on executive order speculation, making risk management exceptionally difficult.

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**2. KEY PRICE TRENDS**

**Cash Fed Cattle:**
- Texas/Kansas: $256–$260/cwt this week (up $2–4 from prior week in the south)
- North: $258–$260 live / $400–$405 dressed (northern premium to south — unusual)
- 5-Area weighted average for week of 5/8/26: $258.52/cwt live, $402.50/cwt dressed
- Year-ago comparison: $224.80/cwt live — prices are up ~$34/cwt year-over-year

**Futures (CME):**
- June live cattle closed Tuesday at 247.700¢/lb — down 1.700¢ on the day
- August feeders slid 5.750¢ to 356.550¢/lb Tuesday on import tariff fears
- Futures swung in a $6+ intraday range Monday on tariff headline whipsawing

**Feeder Cattle (week of 5/8/26):**
- Nebraska 700–800 lb steers: $420.18/cwt
- Oklahoma 700–800 lb steers: $391.27/cwt
- Oklahoma City Monday: Feeder steers 5–10 lower; heifers steady to 5 lower

**Boxed Beef:**
- Choice cutout: ~$389.77/cwt (up slightly week-over-week)
- Choice-Select spread: only $1.39/cwt (historically narrow; was $13.77 a year ago)
- Select cuts are running ahead of choice — an unusual seasonal pattern

**Packer Margins:**
- Estimated loss of $265/head slaughtered Friday — worsening from $197.75 the prior week
- JBS North America posted negative adjusted EBITDA of -$267 million in Q1 2026

**Consumer Prices:**
- April CPI: beef up 2.7% month-over-month; up 12.1% year-over-year
- Beef is more than 16% more expensive than when Trump returned to office in January 2025

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**3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS**

**🔴 #1 — Trump Beef Import Tariff Orders: Delayed, Still "Fine-Tuning"**
The week's dominant story. The White House announced Monday that Trump would sign executive orders to temporarily suspend tariff-rate quotas on beef imports (allowing unlimited volume at lower tariff rates) and direct SBA lending support for ranchers. Futures immediately dropped sharply — June live cattle fell to 245.475¢ intraday. After pushback from cattle producers, the signing was delayed. As of Tuesday, a White House official confirmed the administration is still "fine-tuning" the orders. The American Farm Bureau Federation warned the policy "could undermine the fragile recovery ranchers are experiencing" and weaken heifer retention incentives. R-CALF CEO Bill Bullard noted the U.S. has already had record beef imports for three years with no consumer price relief. **Bottom line: This policy remains live and unresolved — expect continued futures volatility.**

**🔴 #2 — EU Blocks Brazilian Animal Product Exports Starting September 3**
The European Commission announced Brazil will be removed from the approved exporters list for beef, poultry, eggs, and live animals effective September 3, citing non-compliance with EU antimicrobial use restrictions. Brazil — the world's largest animal protein exporter — expressed surprise and has scheduled emergency talks with EU authorities. This development, combined with China's existing import quotas on Brazilian beef (expected to hit the 1.1 million ton limit by end of June), significantly tightens Brazilian beef's global export outlets. **This could redirect more Brazilian beef toward the U.S. market precisely when the Trump administration is considering lowering import barriers** — a confluence worth monitoring closely.

**🟡 #3 — May WASDE & JBS Earnings Confirm Tightening Beef Supply Outlook**
USDA's May WASDE lowered the 2026 beef production forecast, citing slower-than-expected steer/heifer slaughter, reduced feedlot placements in Q1, and lower cow slaughter. The 2026 cattle price forecast was raised. For 2027, fed cattle prices are projected even higher as herd rebuilding limits fed cattle availability. Simultaneously, JBS reported a 56% drop in Q1 net profit, with North American beef operations posting -$267M adjusted EBITDA — confirming that packer margin pressure is severe and structural, not temporary. JBS CEO cited the U.S. cattle cycle as "worse than last year." These reports reinforce the supply-driven bull market thesis.

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**4. OUTLOOK FOR RANCHERS**

**Near-Term (2–4 weeks):** Extreme volatility is the defining characteristic right now. Cash cattle prices remain strong at $258–$260, supported by tight supplies and solid demand heading into Memorial Day grilling season. However, futures will continue to react violently to any White House announcements on beef imports. The Trump-Xi summit (May 14–15 in Beijing) adds another potential market-moving variable — a farm deal including U.S. beef purchases could be announced.

**Supply Picture:** Weekly slaughter at 527,000 head is running 34,000 below year-ago. Packer losses exceeding $265/head will continue to suppress slaughter volumes. Carcass weights at 948 lbs are down 8 lbs from the prior week but still 38 lbs above last year — indicating cattle continue to be held longer. Quality grade at 89.3% (down 0.5% week-over-week) will begin a seasonal decline but remains historically elevated.

**Drought & Pasture:** Only 31% of pasture/range rated Good-to-Excellent, down from 36% a year ago. Approximately 60% of U.S. cattle inventory is in drought-affected areas. Hay supplies are tight following 2025 shortfalls. Recent rains have provided some relief in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Colorado, but NOAA projects drought to persist across most affected areas. This remains the primary barrier to herd expansion.

**Import Policy Risk:** If Trump signs the executive orders suspending tariff-rate quotas, expect an immediate $5–$10 drop in futures. The primary impact would be on lean grinding beef and cull cow values — premium fed cattle and middle meats are largely insulated. Experts note the U.S. is already importing a record 5.8 billion pounds in 2026, limiting the incremental impact on consumer prices.

**Bull Market Longevity:** Despite near-term noise, the structural bull market remains intact. No meaningful heifer retention has begun. Drought, producer demographics, and high interest rates continue to block expansion. The New World screwworm threat edging toward Texas adds additional supply-side risk. Analyst consensus: higher prices ahead, with the recommendation to use put options/put spreads to protect downside while preserving upside exposure.

**Feed Costs:** Corn at $4.50/bu (Omaha) with basis in Guymon, OK at +$0.65 to July futures. Corn crop planting at 57% — ahead of the 5-year

DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
May 12, 2026

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**1. MARKET SENTIMENT: Cautiously Bullish — 6/10**

The fundamental supply picture remains strongly bullish (cattle herd at 75-year lows, slaughter running 34,000 head below year-ago levels), but policy uncertainty around beef import tariffs injected significant volatility this week. Trump's delayed executive orders on beef imports temporarily rattled futures before markets partially recovered. Underlying demand remains solid heading into grilling season, but packer margins deep in the red and import policy uncertainty cap the upside score.

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**2. KEY PRICE TRENDS**

**Fed Cattle (5-Area Weekly Average)**
- Live: $258.52/cwt (week of 5/8) vs. $255.02 prior week — up ~$3.50
- Dressed: $402.50/cwt vs. $399.08 prior week
- Year-ago comparison: Live was $224.80 — current prices run ~$34 above last year

**Regional Cash Trade (Week of 5/11)**
- Texas/Kansas: $256–$258 live
- Northern live: $258–$260; dressed: $400–$405
- Northern sales moved to a slight premium over the South — unusual but likely timing-driven

**Boxed Beef**
- Choice: $389.77/cwt (up slightly week-over-week; year-ago: $345.65)
- Select: $385.01/cwt
- Choice-Select Spread: $1.39 — dramatically compressed vs. $13.77 a year ago, reflecting the dominance of high-quality cattle

**Futures (CME, Monday 5/11 close)**
- June Live Cattle: 249.400¢/lb (recovered from intraday low of 245.475¢)
- August Feeder Cattle: 362.300¢/lb (down 1.925¢; hit intraday low of 357.250¢)

**Feeder Cattle Cash (Week of 5/8)**
- 700–800 lb. Steers: Nebraska $420.18/cwt; Oklahoma $391.27/cwt; Montana $398.49/cwt
- 500–600 lb. Steers: Nebraska $521.06/cwt; Oklahoma $493.29/cwt

**Packer Margins**
- Estimated loss: $265.00/head slaughtered Friday — up sharply from $197.75/head the prior week

**Corn (Omaha):** $4.50/bu — slightly lower week-over-week; corn planting at 57% complete vs. 5-year average of 52%

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**3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS**

**🔴 #1 — Trump Beef Import Executive Orders Delayed (Most Market-Moving)**
The White House announced — then walked back — plans to sign executive orders Monday that would temporarily suspend tariff-rate quotas on beef imports, allowing more volume at lower tariff rates. The orders would also direct SBA lending to ranchers and reduce wolf predation protections. The announcement alone sent CME June live cattle to an intraday low of 245.475¢ before recovering to close up 0.500¢. The delay leaves markets in limbo. Key context: USDA already projects record 2026 beef imports of 5.8 billion pounds, up 25% from 2024. Most imported beef is lean trim for grinding — it competes in hamburger markets, not premium middle meats. Retail beef prices are now 16% above January 2025 levels and up 12.1% year-over-year per the April CPI. Industry experts caution that additional imports are unlikely to meaningfully reduce consumer prices given the structural supply deficit.

**🟡 #2 — Drought Persists; ~60% of Cattle Inventory Under Stress**
The USDA Drought Monitor shows approximately 60% of U.S. cattle inventory located in abnormally dry or drought conditions. Pasture and range conditions rated "Good to Excellent" stand at just 31% — down from 36% a year ago. Drought is simultaneously: (a) slowing herd rebuilding by limiting grazing capacity; (b) tightening hay supplies (Texas hay production was 20% lower year-over-year in 2025); and (c) potentially raising feedlot cost-of-gain if hay and feed prices move higher. The New World screwworm threat in Mexico continues edging northward toward Texas, with the U.S.-Mexico cattle import border expected to remain closed through year-end. NOAA projects some improvement in the South in coming months, but most drought areas are expected to persist.

**🟡 #3 — US-China Agricultural Summit & Global Trade Signals**
A Trump-Xi summit this week may yield agricultural purchase commitments covering corn, sorghum, milling wheat, beef, and poultry — though major new soybean purchases beyond last October's 25 MMT annual commitment are not expected. More than a dozen agribusiness CEOs are traveling with Trump. Separately, Chinese Tianjin beef importers (representing ~40% of China's Brazilian beef purchases) have pledged to pay a 10% premium for deforestation-free certified Brazilian beef — a potential long-term shift in how Brazil's beef is marketed globally. Meanwhile, world food prices hit a 3-year high in April (FAO index: 130.7), with global meat prices at record highs amid tight slaughter-ready cattle supplies in Brazil and the U.S.

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**4. OUTLOOK: What Ranchers Should Expect**

**Near-Term (2–4 weeks):**
- Cash fed cattle prices likely to hold in the $256–$262 range. Packers, bleeding $265/head, have little appetite to bid aggressively, but tight supplies prevent a meaningful pullback.
- Futures will remain volatile and headline-sensitive. Any signing of the beef import executive orders could trigger another sharp intraday sell-off — use caution on unhedged positions.
- Slaughter volumes expected to remain at or below last week's 527,000 head. Box prices need to strengthen before packers expand kills.
- Feeder cattle markets face modest headwinds at OKC and similar sales as futures volatility spills into buyer sentiment, but the underlying supply shortage keeps a floor under prices.

**Medium-Term (Summer 2026):**
- The bull market structural case remains intact. No meaningful heifer retention has begun — herd expansion has not started. Supplies will remain historically tight.
- If drought breaks in July as some forecasters project, fall heifer retention could begin — initially tightening supplies further before eventually building the herd.
- HPAI resurgence in poultry (206+ million birds lost since 2022) continues to redirect some consumer protein demand toward beef, providing demand support.
- Watch the Trump-Xi summit outcome closely. New Chinese commitments to purchase U.S. beef and corn could provide upside to cattle markets.

**Risk Management Note:**
As analyst Dennis Smith highlights, the futures market carries no forward premium (deferred contracts are discounted to front month), making traditional hedging costly. Producers should consider put options or put spreads to protect against a potential top while preserving upside exposure. LRP remains available but can be expensive. The bull market's end will be signaled by aggressive heifer retention — that signal has not yet appeared.

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*Sources: USDA-AMS, CME/Reuters, LMIC, Livestock Marketing Information Center, Beef Magazine, University of Georgia Extension, Oklahoma State University Extension, FAO*

DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
May 9, 2026

1. MARKET SENTIMENT: CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH (4/10)
The market has turned more cautious following a reversal in futures late week. Cash cattle trade showed regional variations with Texas and Kansas at $256-$258, while northern regions commanded a premium at $258-$260 (live) and $400-$405 (dressed). The futures market turned downward after speculation about a Trump-Lula meeting potentially addressing Brazilian beef tariffs, creating uncertainty in an already tight market.

2. KEY PRICE TRENDS:
• Live Cattle: June futures settled at 250.05¢/lb, down 3.425¢ on Thursday
• Feeder Cattle: August futures closed at 366.175¢/lb, down 6.875¢
• Boxed Beef: Choice cutout declined to $386.94/cwt (-$2.68), Select at $384.42/cwt (-$5.21)
• Cash Cattle: Regional premium for northern cattle over southern (unusual pattern)
• Slaughter: Weekly total of 527,000 head, down 7,000 from previous week and 34,000 under last year

3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS:
• POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY: Trump-Lula meeting sparked speculation about potential removal of Brazilian beef tariffs, triggering a futures market selloff. Market participants are watching for any trade policy announcements.
• PACKER MARGINS DETERIORATING: Packers are operating at significant losses (estimated -$219.40 per head) compared to -$140.10 the previous week, forcing reduced slaughter pace as they attempt to regain leverage.
• QUALITY GRADE MILESTONE: For the first time, cattle grading Prime (16%) have surpassed those grading Select (9%) through April 2026, fundamentally changing the market dynamics and making the traditional Choice-Select spread less relevant.

4. OUTLOOK:
Producers should prepare for continued market volatility in the near term. The packer margin situation is unsustainable, likely leading to continued reduced slaughter rates as they attempt to improve their position. While cash prices remain historically strong, the futures market suggests caution ahead.

Weather conditions remain mixed, with some drought relief in parts of the Plains and Southeast, though pasture conditions in the Southeast are significantly worse than last year (36% rated poor/very poor vs. 12% a year ago). This could accelerate marketing of cattle in affected regions.

The quality grade shift toward higher marbling scores continues to reshape market dynamics, with Prime now exceeding Select grades. This structural change means producers should focus on marbling potential in their genetics programs, as the premium market is increasingly on the upper end of the quality spectrum rather than avoiding discounts.

Export markets remain challenging with China largely closed to U.S. beef, though March variety meat exports reached record values. All eyes will be on the May 14-15 Trump-Xi summit for potential reopening of the Chinese market to U.S. beef.

DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
May 8, 2026

1. MARKET SENTIMENT: BULLISH - 7/10
Cash cattle prices continue to strengthen amid tight supplies, with live cattle trading at $256-260 in various regions. The market remains fundamentally supported despite processing margin challenges for packers, who are operating in the red by approximately $219 per head. Equity markets reaching record highs are providing additional support to cattle futures.

2. KEY PRICE TRENDS:
• Live cattle: June futures settled at 253.475 cents/lb, up 0.25 cents
• Feeder cattle: August futures closed at 373.05 cents/lb, up 0.75 cents
• Cash cattle: Texas and Kansas trades at $256-258, with northern regions reaching $260 live and $402 dressed
• Boxed beef: Choice cuts fell $2.72 to $389.62/cwt, Select cuts down $2.61 to $389.63/cwt
• Packer margins: Currently negative $219.40 per head, deteriorating from -$140.10 the previous week

3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS:
• Justice Department announced investigation into the four major beef packers for alleged market manipulation, despite packers reporting significant processing losses
• Weekly slaughter reached 534,000 head, up 5,000 from previous week but 29,000 under last year, with carcass weights at 948 lbs (38 lbs heavier than last year)
• March beef variety meat exports hit record value at $135.6 million (up 50% year-over-year), with per-head export value reaching $456.56, helping offset continued absence from Chinese market

4. OUTLOOK:
• Packers have slowed slaughter pace to regain leverage against high cattle prices, which should create short-term price pressure
• Seasonal demand improvement expected post-Easter, with upcoming grilling season likely to strengthen beef demand
• Quality grade percentages remain historically high at 89.3% (down 0.5% from previous week), but should begin seasonal decline into summer
• Rains in Colorado feedlot areas could cause travel disruptions and weight loss in cattle, potentially tightening short-term supplies
• Forward contracting activity likely to remain limited as discounted deferred futures prices discourage cattle owners from locking in potential losses

Replacement cattle markets show heavier placement weights continuing for beef cattle, while the drought monitor indicates improving conditions in many regions. Cash prices continue to command significant premiums over futures, creating positive basis opportunities for hedgers. The Justice Department's investigation announcement adds regulatory uncertainty despite packers reporting substantial losses on processing operations.

DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
May 6, 2026

1. MARKET SENTIMENT: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH (7/10)
Despite record cattle prices and contract highs, the market shows signs of strain as beef packers face significant losses and the Choice-Select spread remains unusually narrow. However, strong underlying demand, tight cattle supplies, and continued reduced cow slaughter support a generally bullish outlook.

2. KEY PRICE TRENDS:
• Live cattle futures hit contract highs before closing lower on profit-taking (June live cattle settled at 253.00 cents/lb)
• 5-Area fed steers reached $255.02/cwt (live) and $399.08/cwt (dressed), up 3.6% and 3.4% week-over-week
• Choice boxed beef values increased to $389.03/cwt, but the Choice-Select spread remains extremely narrow at $1.26/cwt (vs. $20.36/cwt year-ago)
• Beef packer margins deteriorated further to losses of $197.95 per head

3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS:
• DROUGHT THREATENS HERD REBUILD: Over 70% of the U.S. beef cow herd is now impacted by drought conditions, with the Drought Severity Coverage Index at a record high for April. This threatens potential herd expansion despite early signs of heifer retention.

• SCREWWORM DETECTED NEAR TEXAS BORDER: New World screwworm has been confirmed in Coahuila, Mexico, just 119 miles from the Texas border, prompting increased biosecurity measures and threatening to further restrict cattle imports from Mexico.

• BEEF PACKERS UNDER ANTITRUST SCRUTINY: The Department of Justice has expanded its investigation into the "Big 4" meat packers, citing concerns about market concentration (now 85%) and consumer beef prices, adding regulatory uncertainty to the sector.

4. OUTLOOK:
Ranchers should expect continued strong cattle prices in the near term due to tight supplies, but with increasing volatility. The widespread drought represents a significant threat to potential herd rebuilding efforts and may force additional liquidation if conditions worsen. The unusually narrow Choice-Select spread (hovering near zero compared to $20+ last year) signals potential demand weakness for premium beef cuts, possibly due to higher fuel costs impacting consumer spending.

International markets provide some optimism with duty-free access to the UK market now available and strong export growth to South America (up 15% by volume, 43% by value). However, processor margins remain deeply negative, creating a precarious situation where packers may reduce slaughter capacity if margins don't improve.

Producers should prioritize drought contingency planning, consider forward contracting to lock in current strong prices, and closely monitor both consumer demand signals and packer operational decisions in the coming weeks.

DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
May 5, 2026

1. MARKET SENTIMENT: BEARISH (3/10)
Despite record-high cash prices, market sentiment has turned sharply bearish as futures reversed recent gains, processing margins deteriorated, and war with Iran continues to pressure the broader economy. High fuel costs and transportation expenses are straining the entire beef supply chain.

2. KEY PRICE TRENDS:
• Cash cattle: Live sales steady to higher at $250-256/cwt ($255 bulk), up $9 from previous week
• Dressed prices: $398-405/cwt ($400 bulk), up $17 from previous week
• Boxed beef: Choice cutout softened to $389.03/cwt at week's end
• Choice-Select spread: Collapsed to just $1.26/cwt, down from $20.36 a year ago
• Packer margins: Deteriorating to losses of nearly $198 per head processed
• Futures: Hit contract highs before closing lower on profit-taking and weak wholesale prices

3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS:
• IRAN WAR IMPACT: The prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is driving up fuel, transportation and fertilizer costs, redirecting corn acres to soybeans, and squeezing consumer budgets – all negatively impacting beef demand.
• DROUGHT INTENSIFIES: The Drought Severity Coverage Index has reached unprecedented levels for late April, with over 70% of the U.S. beef cow herd now affected by drought conditions, threatening herd rebuilding efforts.
• ANTITRUST INVESTIGATION: The Department of Justice has expanded its investigation into the "Big 4" meat packers that control 85% of the market, examining potential violations amid record beef prices.

4. OUTLOOK:
Ranchers should prepare for increased volatility and downward pressure on prices in the coming weeks. The combination of processing losses, drought concerns, and geopolitical tensions creates significant headwinds:

• Packers facing substantial losses will likely reduce slaughter volumes, further pressuring the cash market
• Rising fuel costs will continue to compress margins throughout the supply chain
• Drought conditions may force producers to liquidate cattle rather than retain heifers for herd rebuilding
• Consumer resistance to high beef prices may intensify as household budgets tighten from inflation
• The diminished Choice-Select spread signals weakening demand for premium beef products

Producers should consider risk management strategies and closely monitor cash market developments, as packers may become increasingly resistant to higher prices given their negative margins.

DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
May 2, 2026

MARKET SENTIMENT: Bullish - 8/10
Cattle markets continue their strong upward momentum with cash prices hitting new highs. Boxed beef prices are firming at week's end, and the spring demand period is beginning to take hold. The combination of tight supplies, strong domestic demand, and ongoing border restrictions due to screwworm concerns has created significant upward price pressure.

KEY PRICE TRENDS:
• Cash cattle trade reached $256 live and $405 dressed, up $1 from previous trading
• Earlier week trades saw gains of $9 higher live and $17 higher dressed at the top end
• Boxed beef ended on a strong note with choice cuts at $389.74/cwt (+$1.69) and select at $389.86/cwt (+$3.61)
• June live cattle futures closed at 254.00 cents/lb, down 1.25 cents in profit-taking after five straight days of gains
• August feeder cattle ended at 373.525 cents/lb, up 1 cent

TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS:
1. SCREWWORM EMERGENCY TREATMENTS APPROVED: The FDA has authorized Elanco's Negasunt Powder for emergency use to prevent and treat New World screwworm infestations in livestock. Simultaneously, the EPA granted a Section 18 Emergency Exemption for Tanidil, another Elanco treatment. These authorizations come as screwworm flies have been detected just 62 miles from the US-Mexico border.

2. SLAUGHTER VOLUMES INCREASING: Weekly cattle slaughter reached 529,000 head, up 15,000 from the previous week but still 26,000 under last year. The larger slaughter has improved plant efficiency but hasn't resolved negative packer margins, currently estimated at -$187.30 per head.

3. GROUND BEEF CONSUMPTION RISING DESPITE PRICES: Ground beef now represents a record percentage of total beef consumption (47.8%) despite wholesale ground beef prices increasing over 57% since 2022. This shift is occurring as total beef production falls, with per capita consumption expected to decline in 2026 despite increased beef imports.

OUTLOOK:
Ranchers should expect continued strong prices through the spring grilling season as beef demand transitions from a historically soft seasonal period to improved demand. The combination of restricted Mexican cattle imports due to screwworm concerns and tight domestic supplies will continue to support prices.

However, the replacement market is showing early signs of weakness, particularly for lightweight cattle, which are most vulnerable to market downturns. The extremely high negative margins at the feedlot level suggest caution, as these could eventually translate to actual losses if the cash market turns lower.

Drought conditions in the central plains and southeast remain concerning, with wildfire risks elevated. This could further impact herd rebuilding efforts and maintain upward pressure on prices through 2026.

DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
May 1, 2026

MARKET SENTIMENT: BULLISH (8/10)
The cattle market continues its strong upward momentum for a fifth consecutive session, driven by tight supplies, screwworm concerns limiting Mexican imports, and improved cash trade. With boxed beef prices holding near record levels and packers increasing spot market purchases despite negative margins, fundamentals remain firmly supportive.

KEY PRICE TRENDS:
• Live cattle futures climbed to $255.25/cwt for June contracts, marking five straight days of gains
• Cash cattle traded $1-9 higher at $255-256/cwt live and $398-405/cwt dressed
• Boxed beef cutout values remain historically strong at $388.05/cwt for Choice cuts
• Feedlot placements are showing early signs of weakness as replacement costs remain prohibitively high
• Ground beef consumption reached highest percentage of total beef consumption since at least 2003

TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS:
1. SCREWWORM EMERGENCY RESPONSE: FDA and EPA approved emergency use authorizations for Elanco's screwworm treatments (Negasunt Powder and Tanidil) as cases continue spreading in Mexico just 62 miles from the US border. Florida has implemented additional veterinary screening requirements for animals from Texas border counties.

2. GROUND BEEF DEMAND SURGE: Despite record prices (up 57% since 2022), ground beef consumption increased to 28.6 lbs per person in 2025, the highest level since 2004. Imported lean trim now accounts for 38.7% of total ground beef production as domestic cow slaughter remains limited.

3. PACKER OPERATIONS ADJUSTING: Weekly slaughter increased to 529,000 head (15,000 over previous week) as packers work to improve efficiency amid negative margins. Carcass weights reached 956 lbs, 44 lbs heavier than last year, with quality grading at 89.9%.

OUTLOOK:
Cattle producers should expect continued price strength through spring with several key factors supporting the market. The screwworm situation will likely keep Mexican imports restricted, further tightening already limited supplies. Seasonal improvement in beef demand is materializing, supporting the middle meat complex.

However, caution is warranted for those purchasing lightweight replacement cattle, as these animals face the greatest price risk during an eventual market correction. Current negative feeding margins (-$129.55/head) are unsustainable long-term, though they've improved from -$194.55/head last week.

The ground beef situation bears watching, as imported lean trim becomes increasingly critical to the U.S. beef supply chain. With prime beef now exceeding select production volumes, retailers are adapting marketing strategies to move higher-quality cuts through feature activity.

For the immediate term, producers with market-ready cattle should benefit from packers' need to increase spot purchases, while those with calves should carefully evaluate breakeven projections given current replacement costs and potential market risks.

DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
April 30, 2026

1. MARKET SENTIMENT: BULLISH - 8/10
The cattle market has turned decisively bullish with cash prices surging $9 higher on the live side and $17 higher on the dressed side. Limited cattle supplies, screwworm concerns at the Mexican border, and early signs of strengthening spring beef demand have created significant upward price momentum.

2. KEY PRICE TRENDS:
• Cash cattle: Sharp jump to $254-256/cwt live and $400/cwt dressed
• Futures: Three-day rally as contracts attempt to catch up with cash
• Boxed beef: Ended week on strong note with Choice cutout at $387.00 (+$5.94) and Select at $386.07 (+$9.47)
• Choice-Select spread: Narrowing and occasionally inverting, reflecting changing quality dynamics
• Ground beef: Per capita consumption increased to 28.6 lbs in 2025, highest since 2004

3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS:
• SCREWWORM THREAT INTENSIFIES: A case was confirmed just 60 miles from the US border in Nuevo León, Mexico. FDA and EPA have approved emergency use of Elanco's Negasunt Powder and Tanidil treatments, signaling growing concern about potential US spread. USDA Secretary Rollins canceled her planned border visit, dampening hopes for imminent reopening of cattle imports.

• PACKER BUYING PATTERNS SHIFT: Reduced occupancy levels at processing plants have decreased committed and formula cattle, forcing packers to increase spot market purchases. This dynamic drove the sharp rise in cash prices as packers competed for available cattle.

• BEEF QUALITY TRANSFORMATION CONTINUES: Prime beef now exceeds Select volume, fundamentally changing retail pricing strategies. Retailers are reformatting cuts and marketing approaches as heavy carcass weights (956 lbs, 44 lbs heavier than last year) and high quality grade percentages (89.9%) create an abundance of premium beef.

4. OUTLOOK:
Ranchers should expect continued strong prices through spring with several supporting factors:
• Limited cattle supplies will maintain leverage for sellers in the cash market
• Screwworm concerns will likely delay Mexican border reopening, restricting import supply
• Seasonal improvement in beef demand is beginning, with middle meat prices expected to strengthen
• Ground beef demand remains robust despite record prices, supporting overall beef values

However, caution is warranted in the replacement market where signs of weakness are emerging. Negative feeding margins are becoming unsustainable, with some analysts questioning if losses could reach $1,000/head on certain cattle. Drought conditions in parts of the central plains, Southeast, eastern New Mexico, the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, Wyoming, Montana and eastern Colorado are constraining herd rebuilding efforts.

The market is entering a critical spring demand period that should provide price support, but the sustainability of current price levels will ultimately depend on consumer acceptance of record beef prices and the industry's ability to manage the shifting quality mix.

DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
April 29, 2026

MARKET SENTIMENT: BULLISH - 8/10
The market shows strong bullish momentum with live prices jumping $9 in the south to $255 and dressed prices in the north at $400 ($17 higher). Futures have rallied for three consecutive sessions, with June live cattle gaining 3.725 cents to settle at 248.95 cents per pound. Tight cattle supplies, continued screwworm concerns at the Mexico border, and strengthening boxed beef prices all support the bullish sentiment.

KEY PRICE TRENDS:
• Cash cattle: Southern live prices $254-$255, northern dressed prices $400 (+$17)
• Boxed beef: Choice cutout strengthened to $389.56 (+$2.56), Select at $388.60 (+$2.53)
• Futures: June live cattle at 248.95¢/lb (+3.725¢), May feeders at 368.325¢/lb (+6.55¢)
• Ground beef demand: Hitting highest consumption levels since 2004 at 28.6 lbs per capita
• Packer margins: Improved but still negative at -$156.80 per head (up from last week)

TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS:
1. SCREWWORM BORDER CLOSURE EXTENDED: Agriculture Secretary Rollins canceled her scheduled trip to Douglas, Arizona, signaling the US-Mexico border will remain closed to cattle imports as screwworm cases continue rising. A new case was confirmed just 60 miles from the US border in Nuevo León, Mexico.

2. DROUGHT IMPACT ON REPLACEMENT MARKET: Dry conditions across eastern New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles, Wyoming, Montana, and eastern Colorado are weakening replacement cattle prices. Early removal of cattle from wheat fields is pushing April placements higher, while May placements may show decline.

3. USDA-DOI AGREEMENT TO SUPPORT RANCHERS: A new Memorandum of Understanding between USDA and Department of Interior aims to streamline grazing permits, cut red tape, and support ranchers with public land access. The agreement includes maintaining grazing capacity and creating wildfire coordination resources.

OUTLOOK:
Cattle supplies will remain extremely tight through 2026, supporting prices despite concerns about consumer resistance to record-high beef prices. Expect continued volatility as the market navigates several key factors:

1. The ongoing Mexico border closure will maintain upward pressure on feeder cattle prices, with no imminent reopening expected as screwworm cases increase.

2. Quality grade dynamics are shifting dramatically - Prime now exceeds Select volume, and retailers are reformatting cuts and marketing strategies to adjust to higher quality beef offerings.

3. Watch for potential seasonal demand improvement for middle meats as grilling season approaches, though the historically high price of beef remains a risk factor for demand.

4. Feedlot margins remain severely negative, creating financial stress that could eventually impact the sector if cash prices don't continue rising to offset high replacement costs.

Ranchers should expect continued strong prices but prepare for potential regional impacts from drought conditions, which could affect placement patterns and create localized pressure on replacement values in the coming months.

DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
April 28, 2026

1. MARKET SENTIMENT: MODERATELY BULLISH (7/10)
Cattle markets are showing resilience despite persistent challenges. Cash prices gained $1 in Kansas on Friday to reach $247 live, with packers willing to add inventory despite negative margins. The boxed beef market ended last week on a strong note, suggesting improved spring demand. Slaughter volumes increased to 529,000 head last week (15,000 over previous week), improving plant efficiencies while remaining 26,000 head under last year's levels.

2. KEY PRICE TRENDS:
- Live cattle: Kansas/Texas mostly $246 live; Northern regions $246 live and $386 dressed (both $2 lower)
- Boxed beef: Strengthening to close the week with choice cutout ending strong
- Choice/select spread: Fluctuating between premium and discount as retailers deal with abundance of high-quality cuts
- Futures: CME June live cattle gained 1.725 cents to settle at 245.225 cents/pound; May feeder cattle ended 2.025 cents higher at 360.900 cents/pound
- Ground beef: Wholesale prices up 57% since 2022, outpacing the 44% average increase across all beef products

3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS:

a) BEEF-ON-DAIRY IMPACT REVEALED: New analysis suggests beef-on-dairy programs may be masking early signs of herd rebuilding by inflating heifer-on-feed numbers. January 2026 data showed 38.7% of cattle on feed were heifers, but when adjusted for estimated beef-on-dairy impact, the figure drops to 36.6%. This has significant implications for interpreting inventory reports as the industry watches for rebuilding signals.

b) USDA-DOI AGREEMENT TO SUPPORT RANCHERS: A new Memorandum of Understanding between USDA and Department of Interior aims to streamline grazing permits on federal lands, reduce bureaucracy, and maintain grazing capacity. The agreement affects 20,000+ ranchers across 28 states and targets reopening approximately 24 million currently vacant acres for grazing.

c) UNIVERSITY OF NEBRASKA DEVELOPS H5N1 VACCINE: Researchers have created a promising vaccine against highly pathogenic bird flu (H5N1) that shows strong efficacy in both mice and cattle. The vaccine, which uses both intramuscular and intranasal delivery, could provide critical protection for livestock as the virus continues to spread in dairy herds.

4. OUTLOOK:
Ranchers should prepare for improved spring beef demand following Easter, though persistent drought conditions across several regions (eastern New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles, Wyoming, Montana, eastern Colorado) continue to limit herd expansion. The replacement market is showing signs of weakness as extremely high prices and negative feedlot margins make it difficult to pencil profitable returns.

Ground beef consumption has reached its highest percentage of total beef consumption on record, with per capita supplies increasing to 28.6 pounds in 2025 (highest since 2004). This shift reflects consumers turning to ground products as overall beef prices rise, though maintaining this market depends increasingly on imported lean trim (38.7% of total ground beef trim in 2025).

The threat of a strong El Niño in the second half of 2026 adds additional uncertainty, potentially bringing hotter, drier conditions across Asia while increasing rainfall in the Americas. Ranchers should monitor both domestic consumption patterns and global weather developments as they make production decisions for the coming months.

DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
April 25, 2026

1. MARKET SENTIMENT: BEARISH (4/10)
Cattle markets are showing increasing signs of weakness as processing margins remain negative, consumer resistance to high beef prices emerges, and packers respond by reducing slaughter volumes. The market has experienced six consecutive sessions of declining futures prices, indicating a significant shift in sentiment despite historically tight cattle supplies.

2. KEY PRICE TRENDS:
- Live cattle traded at $246 in Kansas and Texas, down $2
- Northern cattle traded at $246 live and $386 dressed, both $2 lower
- Futures have declined for six straight sessions with June live cattle touching lowest level since March 31
- Cash feeder cattle showing weakness, with OKC West reporting 10-15¢/lb lower prices on calves
- Choice/select spread fluctuating between premium and discount as retailers face abundance of high-quality cuts

3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS:
a) CONSUMER RESISTANCE EMERGING: After prolonged resilience to high prices, consumers are showing signs of resistance to beef prices. Retailers are experiencing unusual pricing patterns with Prime and Certified Angus steaks priced flat with Choice, and branded/Wagyu offerings disappearing from shelves.

b) PACKERS REDUCING SLAUGHTER: Last week's slaughter was 514,000 head, 64,000 under last year. Packers are responding to negative margins by reducing slaughter volumes, potentially closing plants if conditions persist. The April Cattle on Feed report confirmed tight supplies with on-feed inventory down 0.5% from 2025.

c) DROUGHT INTENSIFYING: Drought conditions worsened by 2.9% since last week and 14.5% since last month, with approximately 63% of the US cattle inventory now in drought areas compared to 37% a year ago. This is hampering herd rebuilding efforts despite some signs of heifer retention.

4. OUTLOOK:
Ranchers should prepare for continued market pressure in the near term as packers work to improve margins by reducing slaughter volumes and lowering bids. The seasonal improvement in beef demand that typically follows Easter may help stabilize prices, but the risk of reaching a consumer price tipping point remains high.

Carcass weights remain heavy at 952 pounds, 41 pounds heavier than last year, which is maintaining beef production despite lower slaughter numbers. Quality grades remain historically high at 89.1%, though expected to decline seasonally through summer.

The April 1 quarterly report showed heifers representing 37.3% of cattle on feed, down slightly from last year's 37.6%, suggesting minimal heifer retention. More significant is the 18% year-over-year reduction in beef cow slaughter through the first 14 weeks of 2026, indicating potential for herd rebuilding despite drought challenges.

Forward contracting activity will likely remain slow as discounted deferred futures contracts make it difficult for producers to lock in profitable prices. The replacement cattle market is showing signs of weakness as breakeven models become increasingly challenging for feedlots, with potential for significant losses on current purchases if cash markets turn sharply lower.

DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
April 24, 2026

MARKET SENTIMENT: BEARISH (3/10)
Cattle futures have fallen for six consecutive sessions with technical selling, fund liquidation, and concerns about demand at record-high beef prices. Cash cattle traded lower in the south at $246, down $2 in the north at $246 live and $386 dressed. Packer margins remain deeply negative (estimated at -$194.55 per head), limiting their purchasing power despite continued need for cattle.

KEY PRICE TRENDS:
• Live cattle futures hit 2½-week lows on Wednesday, with June contracts settling at 243.075 cents/lb
• Feeder cattle reached 3½-week lows at 358.425 cents/lb, marking five straight sessions of decline
• Choice/select spread has inverted, indicating retailers are struggling with abundance of high-quality cuts
• Prime and Certified Angus steaks now priced flat with choice steaks due to oversupply
• Weekly slaughter at 514,000 head, just 2,000 over previous week but 64,000 under last year

TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS:
1. NEW WORLD SCREWWORM THREAT: A case was confirmed in Nuevo León, Mexico, approximately 62 miles from the Texas border. This represents the northernmost active case in Mexico and poses significant risk to U.S. cattle herds despite ongoing sterile fly dispersal efforts.

2. BEEF EXPORT CHALLENGES: February beef exports fell 13% year-over-year to 85,066 metric tons, largely due to continued lack of access to China. However, beef variety meat exports increased 12% in volume and 40% in value, reaching $106 million.

3. QUARTERLY CATTLE ON FEED REPORT: Total on-feed inventory was down 0.5% from 2025 at 11.58 million head. Notably, heifers on feed declined 1.4% year-over-year to 4.32 million head (37.3% of total inventory) - the smallest percentage since 2018, potentially signaling some retention. Beef cow slaughter is running 18% below last year's pace.

OUTLOOK:
Producers should prepare for continued pressure on cattle prices in the near term as the market works through technical selling and demand concerns. The inverted choice/select spread signals retailers are struggling with an abundance of high-quality beef, forcing unusual pricing patterns with premium cuts being discounted. Packers will likely continue reducing slaughter rates to address negative margins.

The screwworm detection near the Texas border requires vigilance from producers in southern states. Export challenges persist, though strong variety meat demand provides some offset. The declining percentage of heifers on feed combined with significantly reduced cow slaughter suggests early signs of herd rebuilding, which could support prices longer term but will be heavily dependent on weather conditions and moisture levels in key production areas.

DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
April 22, 2026

1. MARKET SENTIMENT: NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY BEARISH (5/10)
The cattle market is showing signs of stalling momentum after recent record-high prices. Boxed beef ended last week on a weak note with indications of consumer resistance emerging. Futures turned early day gains into losses, and packers remain defensive as they operate in negative margin territory. The Choice/Select spread has inverted again, signaling unusual market dynamics in high-quality beef.

2. KEY PRICE TRENDS:
- Live cattle prices mostly $248 with some at $249 in both south and north regions
- Dressed sales ranged from $388-392
- Slaughter volume remained flat at 514,000 head, 64,000 under last year
- Unusual pricing patterns developing with Prime and Certified Angus steaks priced flat with choice
- Feeder cattle: Oklahoma 900-1000 lb steers 2.00-4.00 lower; heifers 2.00-4.00 lower
- Carcass weights at 958 lbs, 3 lbs higher than prior week and 43 lbs heavier than last year

3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS:
a) QUALITY GRADE ABUNDANCE DISRUPTING MARKETS: The quality grade reached 89.6% (up 0.03%), creating an oversupply of high-quality cuts. This has inverted the Choice/Select spread and eliminated premiums for branded and Wagyu offerings. Retailers are struggling to market the abundance of USDA Prime cuts.

b) CATTLE ON FEED REPORT SHOWS TIGHT SUPPLIES: April 1 cattle on feed totaled 11.58 million head (99.7% of year ago). March placements were 93% of 2025 levels at 1.71 million head, while marketings were 94.5% of last year at 1.63 million head. Cattle on feed for 150+ days reached record levels.

c) SCREWWORM THREAT INTENSIFIES: A northernmost case of New World Screwworm was detected just 62 miles from the Texas border in Mexico's Nuevo León state, raising concerns about potential impacts on U.S. cattle supplies. This comes as USDA breaks ground on a new sterile fly production facility in Texas.

4. OUTLOOK:
Ranchers should prepare for potential market consolidation after the recent rally. While tight supplies continue to support prices, several warning signs have emerged. Consumer resistance to high beef prices, unusual quality grade distributions, and potential changes in Mexican import policies could pressure the market in coming weeks.

Feedlot margins remain historically strong through September according to KSU estimates, but these projections assume continued high cattle prices. The DOJ's criminal investigation into major beef packers adds another layer of uncertainty. The screwworm situation bears close watching as it could further disrupt cattle movement.

With packers operating in the red and showing reluctance to buy cattle at current price levels, producers should consider risk management strategies and remain vigilant about market signals that could indicate a shift in the current price trajectory.

DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
April 21, 2026

1. MARKET SENTIMENT: CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH - 4/10
Despite record-high cash prices around $248-249/cwt, market sentiment is deteriorating due to multiple warning signs including reduced slaughter volumes, weakening boxed beef prices, and potential consumer resistance at current price levels.

2. KEY PRICE TRENDS:
• Cash cattle prices steady at $248-249/cwt live and $388-392 dressed
• Futures markets showing volatility and negative sentiment at week's end
• Boxed beef ending on weak note with signs of consumer resistance emerging
• Feeder cattle cash index tracking lower as feeding margins face pressure
• Corn prices softened with May contract basis levels rising to +$0.65 in some areas

3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS:
• USDA Cattle on Feed report shows April 1 inventory at 99% of year ago (11.576 million head), with March placements at 93% of 2025 and marketings at 94%
• Two consecutive light slaughter weeks (514,000 head) failing to support boxed beef prices, suggesting demand weakness
• DOJ criminal investigation launched into the "Big Four" beef processors for potential antitrust violations, price-fixing, and collusion

4. OUTLOOK:
Ranchers should prepare for increasing headwinds in the cattle market despite current strong cash prices. Signs of market top are appearing through multiple indicators:

• Packers showing defensive posture by reducing slaughter volumes to protect margins
• Beef-on-dairy cross calves showing signs of "irrational exuberance" in pricing
• Carcass weights remain heavy at 958 lbs (43 lbs above year ago), indicating feedlots aren't current
• Quality grade remains high at 89.6%, but boxed beef prices aren't responding positively
• Global factors adding uncertainty with China's new tariff rate quotas affecting international beef trade

While feedlot margins remain historically strong through September (projected at $500+ per head), producers should consider risk management strategies as market signals suggest the potential for significant correction ahead. The combination of reduced slaughter capacity, consumer resistance to high beef prices, and investigation into packer behavior creates an environment where caution is warranted despite current strong prices.

DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
April 18, 2026

1. MARKET SENTIMENT: BULLISH - 7/10
Despite futures market weakness, cash cattle prices remain strong with live sales reaching $248-250 across regions. The disconnect between cash and futures markets, along with continued tight supplies, supports the bullish sentiment despite some headwinds from drought concerns and potential Mexican border reopening.

2. KEY PRICE TRENDS:
• Cash cattle: Southern sales at $248-249, Northern dressed sales $388-392
• Box prices: Flat in late-week trading as packer margins suffered
• Feeder cattle: Oklahoma City reported steers steady to $5 higher, heifers $10-15 higher
• Slaughter volume: 512,000 head, down 21,000 from previous week and 52,000 below last year
• Carcass weights: Averaging 958 lbs, 3 lbs higher than prior week and 43 lbs heavier than last year

3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS:
• BORDER REOPENING RUMORS: Strong indications the US-Mexico border may soon reopen to cattle imports, likely with a phased approach from west to east. This would end the closure that began in November 2024, though immediate supply impact may be limited.
• CATTLE ON FEED REPORT: April 1 inventory down 1% year-over-year at 11.6 million head. March placements down 7% from 2025 at 1.71 million head (second lowest March since 1996). Marketings down 6% at 1.63 million head.
• MIDDLE EAST DEVELOPMENTS: Cease-fire announced between Israel and Lebanon with incentives for extended peace between Trump administration and Iran. Iran announced opening of Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to fall this morning.

4. OUTLOOK:
Ranchers should expect continued strong cash prices in the near term despite futures market weakness. The potential border reopening with Mexico is unlikely to cause immediate material changes to cattle supply, as many cattle previously exported to the US are now being finished in Mexico and crossing as beef. Drought conditions are expanding in key production regions, particularly in the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles, western Kansas, and parts of Colorado, Montana and Wyoming, which may accelerate some cattle movements and limit herd rebuilding efforts.

Quality grade remains historically high at 89.6%, but seasonal declines are expected through summer. Heavy carcass weights are changing processing specifications, with retailers reformatting cuts and marketing strategies to adjust to the new reality of beef offerings. Prime beef now exceeds Select grade in volume.

Feedlot margins remain concerning, with high replacement costs creating potential for significant losses if cash markets turn lower. Weather will be a key factor to watch, with wildfire risk elevated in the central plains following significant losses in Nebraska.

DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
April 17, 2026

1. MARKET SENTIMENT: BULLISH - 8/10
Despite futures market volatility, cash cattle markets remain exceptionally strong with steady to higher prices across all regions. Tight supplies and active packer bidding early in the week demonstrate continued robust demand fundamentals.

2. KEY PRICE TRENDS:
• Fed Cattle: Cash trade at $248-249 in the South, $388 dressed in the North (steady with last week)
• Futures: Live cattle contracts surged to contract highs on Friday, with April settling at $251.775 (+$5.575)
• Boxed Beef: Choice cutout at $380.90 (-$6.88), Select at $381.34 (-$4.85)
• Retail Beef: Ground beef prices at $6.70/lb (+16% year-over-year), steaks at $12.73/lb (+16% year-over-year)
• Oklahoma Feeders: Steers steady to $5 higher, heifers $10-15 higher, with some 500-600 lb heifers up to $25 higher

3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS:
• QUALITY GRADE SHIFT: Select grade percentages dropped to single digits (8%) while Prime reached 15% of harvest mix - first time in history Select has traded at premium to Choice for five consecutive days
• SLAUGHTER VOLUME DECLINE: Last week's slaughter dropped to 512,000 head (21,000 under previous week, 52,000 under last year) as packer margins suffered
• MEXICAN BORDER RUMORS: Reports suggest phased reopening of Mexican cattle imports starting with western ports, potentially relieving tight feeder supplies by fall

4. OUTLOOK:
Ranchers should expect continued strong cash prices despite futures market volatility. The market is demonstrating remarkable resilience with packers actively bidding early in the week despite negative margins. The quality grade shift continues with Prime and Choice exceeding 84% of graded beef, supporting premium prices.

Weather conditions are becoming a concern with below-average snowpack in western regions and expanding drought in the High Plains, potentially limiting forage availability. The potential reopening of the Mexican border could provide some relief to tight feeder supplies, though the impact would be gradual.

Consumer affordability remains a critical concern with retail beef prices 16% higher year-over-year. March inflation data showed the highest month-over-month increase since June 2022 (+0.9%), driven largely by energy costs. Consumer sentiment has fallen to its lowest reading since 1978, potentially threatening beef demand at current price levels.

Feedlot operators face challenging breakeven calculations with high replacement costs, though current cash prices continue to support the market. Friday's Cattle on Feed report is expected to show total inventories at 99.8% of last year, placements at 93.5%, and marketings at 93.7%.

DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
April 16, 2026

1. MARKET SENTIMENT: STRONGLY BULLISH (8/10)
The market continues its remarkable rally with live cattle futures reaching all-time record highs. Cash cattle markets are strengthening on tight supplies, with feedlots gaining leverage as packers need inventory. The bullish momentum is being driven by historically low commercial long positions, managed money heavily investing in the sector, and production constraints across major global producers.

2. KEY PRICE TRENDS:
• Live cattle futures hit life-of-contract and all-time record highs, surging $20/cwt in just over two weeks
• Cash fed cattle trading mostly $248-$250, with dairy crosses selling at slight discounts ($248)
• Choice cutout at $380.90 (down $6.88 week-over-week), Select at $381.34 (down $4.85)
• Ground beef retail price at $6.70/lb (+16% year-over-year), steak prices at $12.73/lb (+16% year-over-year)
• Feeder cattle trending higher but remain below October highs

3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS:
• JBS Greeley plant workers ratified a new two-year labor agreement, ending a three-week strike, though last week's slaughter still came in lower than expected at 512,000 head (vs. 566,000 last year)
• New World Screwworm detected just 90 miles from Texas border in Nuevo León, Mexico, posing an imminent threat to U.S. cattle herds and requiring heightened vigilance
• USDA launched a new National Feeder & Stocker Cattle dashboard providing interactive, customizable market data tools to help producers make better marketing decisions

4. OUTLOOK:
Ranchers should expect continued strong prices in the near term but remain vigilant about potential threats. The unprecedented five consecutive days of Select beef trading over Choice signals extremely tight supplies of lower-graded beef. However, warning signs include retail beef prices reaching potential consumer resistance points, deteriorating packer margins moving back into the red, and concerning macroeconomic indicators like surging inflation and record-low consumer sentiment.

The ongoing drought in key cattle regions (Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles, western Kansas, parts of Colorado, Montana, Wyoming) will likely continue to impact herd rebuilding efforts. Global beef production is projected to decrease 1.1% in 2026, with declines in the top four producing countries. Cattle feeders should closely monitor consumer demand signals as the key driver of this bull market, especially with the Iran conflict potentially impacting consumer spending power.

DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
April 15, 2026

MARKET SENTIMENT: BULLISH (7/10)
The cattle market maintains a decidedly bullish tone despite downstream margin pressure. Cash fed cattle prices moved higher with early-week trade at $248-250, while packers showed unusual urgency by actively bidding on Monday. The JBS Greeley labor dispute resolution removes a significant market uncertainty.

KEY PRICE TRENDS:
• Fed cattle: Cash prices $248-250 live, $388 dressed, up $3-4 from last week
• Boxed beef: Mixed performance with Select prices actually trading higher than Choice (negative Choice-Select spread)
• Feeder cattle: Oklahoma City feeders trading $5-15 higher, with 500-600 lb heifer calves up to $25 higher
• Quality grades: Prime now exceeds Select in percentage of total production, reflecting continued improvement in beef quality

TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS:
1. JBS LABOR DISPUTE RESOLVED: Workers at the Greeley plant ratified a new two-year agreement Sunday, ending a three-week strike and allowing the facility to return to normal operations. The agreement includes wage increases and protection against healthcare cost increases.

2. PACKER MARGIN PRESSURE INTENSIFYING: Downstream margin trouble is accelerating with packers facing negative margins in February and only slight recovery in March. Per Colorado State analysis, packer margins have been below $200/head for most of 2025, well below the $285-365/head needed to cover costs.

3. QUALITY GRADE SHIFT CONTINUES: Select grade percentages have dropped to single digits (approximately 8%) while Prime has reached 15% of production. This dramatic quality improvement supports continued strong domestic demand despite record-high retail prices.

OUTLOOK:
Ranchers should expect continued strong prices through spring with multiple factors supporting the market. However, significant caution is warranted regarding downstream profitability issues. Both packers and feeders face concerning negative margins ($100-300/head losses for feeders on hedgeable positions), which creates potential volatility risk despite tight supplies.

The technical picture suggests a critical decision point approaching by mid-May when current uptrends intersect with life-of-contract high resistance planes from last October. Producers should consider risk management strategies as retail beef prices ($6.70/lb for ground beef, up 16% year-over-year) are testing consumer affordability limits.

While short-term fundamentals remain supportive with tight supplies and strong demand, the downstream margin pressure could eventually force market adjustments if packers continue operating at a loss. The recent labor resolution at JBS Greeley provides temporary stability, but structural profitability challenges persist across the supply chain.

DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
April 14, 2026

1. MARKET SENTIMENT: BULLISH - 8/10
The cattle market maintains strong bullish momentum with cash prices leading futures higher amid extremely tight supplies. Recent geopolitical tensions with Iran briefly pushed oil and grain prices higher before moderating, but the overall cattle market trajectory remains firmly upward despite downstream margin pressures.

2. KEY PRICE TRENDS:
- Cash fed cattle: $248-$249/cwt in the South, $250/cwt live and $388/cwt dressed in the North
- Choice boxed beef: $382.49/cwt, down from $392.27/cwt last week
- Select boxed beef: Currently trading at a premium to Choice (negative $1.49/cwt spread)
- Feeder cattle: 700-800 lb. steers averaging $389-$415/cwt across major markets
- Corn: Omaha prices at $4.28/bu, down slightly from previous week

3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS:
a) JBS Greeley labor dispute resolved - Workers ratified a new two-year agreement ending the three-week strike, allowing the plant to resume normal operations. The agreement includes wage increases and bonuses without the pension plan offered at other JBS facilities.

b) New World Screwworm detected just 90 miles from Texas border - Texas Agriculture Commissioner issued urgent warning after confirmation in Mexico's Nuevo León state. This poses an imminent threat to the U.S. cattle industry, requiring heightened vigilance from producers.

c) Packer margins turned negative in February - Downstream margin pressure intensifying with packers paying more for cattle than they can recover from beef sales. Analyst reports indicate packers need $285-$365/head to cover costs, but recent margins have fallen below $250/head.

4. OUTLOOK:
Ranchers should expect continued strong prices through spring with seasonal demand improvements following Easter, but significant risks are developing. The resolution of the JBS Greeley strike will help stabilize processing capacity, but negative packer margins suggest potential facility closures if trends continue. Feedlot operators face potential hedgeable losses of $100-$300 per head for the remainder of 2026, creating long-term sustainability concerns despite current strong cash prices.

Quality grade trends continue to favor premium beef production with Prime and Choice-plus now representing 39% of production compared to just 15% Select. This shift in quality, combined with record-heavy carcass weights (averaging 955 lbs, 40 lbs heavier than last year), means the industry is producing more high-quality beef with fewer animals.

Technical indicators suggest the market will reach a critical decision point before mid-May when current uptrends intersect with life-of-contract high resistance established last October. Producers should monitor this closely as it will likely determine market direction through summer.