Daily Cattle Market Briefings

DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
September 24, 2026

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1. MARKET SENTIMENT: BULLISH (7/10) — WITH CAUTION FLAGS

The fundamental supply story remains firmly bullish: record-low August placements, tightening feeder supplies, and elevated packer margins support higher cattle prices into year-end. However, volatility driven by political rumors, softening retail beef demand, and rising feed costs are injecting real uncertainty. Futures have been whipsawed this week — surging Monday on the Cattle on Feed report, then giving back gains as profit-taking and unsubstantiated export-ban rumors rattled traders. Net-net, supply fundamentals outweigh near-term noise, but expect continued choppiness.

2. KEY PRICE TRENDS

• Cash Cattle: North trading steady at $222-223 live / $350-355 dressed; South firmed to $225-226 (up ~$1 week-over-week). Packers are managing slaughter volumes carefully to protect margins — currently running near $80/head per HedgersEdge estimates, up sharply from $30 just a session earlier.

• Futures Volatility: December live cattle round-tripped from $219.45 (Tues) after dropping ~$3.75-$7.25 across the board last week on baseless export-ban chatter tied to social media rumors (falsely conflated with fuel export discussions). Feeder cattle October contract fell as much as $9-$12.55 across deferred months before partially recovering.

• Boxed Beef: Choice cutout $377.31 (-$1.58 Tues), Select $352.34 (-$5.51), widening the Choice/Select spread to nearly $25 — a sign that seasonal demand for premium cuts is softening while lower-grade product struggles more.

• Slaughter Lagging: Last week's kill came in at 529,000 head — below most trade estimates and ~30,000 head under last year. Total federally inspected slaughter continues running well behind 2025 levels, tightening box supplies and supporting cutout prices even without larger kills.

• Feed Costs Rising: Omaha corn jumped from $4.08/bu in early June to $4.99/bu last week (+27% YoY). Southern Plains corn is even higher at $5.81/bu. Combined with alfalfa hay at $200+/ton (up from ~$175 last year), rising input costs are squeezing feeding margins and will likely temper how aggressively feedlots bid for replacement cattle.

3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS

1. AUGUST PLACEMENTS COLLAPSE — LOWEST SINCE 1996: USDA's Cattle on Feed report showed August placements down 9.2% YoY to 1.617 million head, badly missing trade expectations (-1.6% to -6.1% range). Marketings also fell 3.3%. This is the clearest signal yet that the tightening calf crop (down to an estimated 32.5 million head, off 3.79 million from the 2018 peak) is finally working through the feedlot pipeline. Days-on-feed continue extending, pushing steer carcass weights up 32 lbs so far this year — the third straight year of extraordinary weight gains that's also driving a doubling of Y4/5 yield grades and rising incidence of feedlot heart failure in heavy cattle.

2. SANTA TERESA, NM BORDER CROSSING REOPENS TODAY: The largest single port for Mexican cattle imports (43% of total volume) is tentatively reopening September 24 after New World Screwworm-related closures. Combined with Columbus, NM, over half of all Mexican cattle imports flow through this corridor. This could provide meaningful regional relief to tightening feeder supplies in the Southwest and Southern Plains — a factor to watch closely in coming placement data.

3. DROUGHT CONDITIONS DETERIORATING SHARPLY: 58% of the U.S. cattle inventory is now in drought-affected areas, up dramatically from just 23% a year ago. National pasture and range conditions rated poor-to-very-poor climbed to 53% (vs. 36% last year). Flash drought is intensifying across the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, and now spreading into the Southeast. This is inflating feed costs, forcing early weaning and calf sales, and complicating fall replacement-cattle buying decisions — video auctions are already reporting more cattle being pulled or passed due to price uncertainty.

4. OUTLOOK

Expect continued choppy trade over the next few weeks as the market digests genuinely bullish fundamentals (tightening feeder supply, low placements, strong packer margins) against bearish undercurrents (weakening retail beef demand, rising corn and hay costs, and political noise around import/export policy). Cash cattle should see modest firming this week as packers compete for increasingly scarce supply, but rising feed costs will likely cap how high feeders can run in the near term.

Ranchers marketing calves this fall should expect strong demand for weaned, healthy cattle — the spread between weaned and unweaned calves remains historically wide near $50/cwt, and buyers continue to avoid stress-risk purchases given persistent heat and drought. The Santa Teresa reopening bears close watching; if Mexican import volumes ramp quickly, it could take some edge off feeder tightness, particularly in the Southwest. Meanwhile, keep an eye on Washington — while the export-ban rumor was unfounded, the administration's continued rhetoric on beef prices and import policy remains a wildcard that can move futures on any given day regardless of fundamentals. Drought remains the wildcard to watch heading into winter grazing season; without meaningful rain in the Southern Plains wheat belt soon, expect delayed stocker placements and continued volatility in replacement cattle values.

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DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
September 23, 2026

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1. MARKET SENTIMENT: BULLISH (7.5/10)

Cattle futures have surged on confirmation that feedlot supplies are tightening faster than expected. The September Cattle on Feed report showed August placements down 9.2% year-over-year — the lowest August total since records began in 1996 — blowing past even the most bearish analyst estimates. Combined with cash trade reportedly reaching $225-$227 in Texas/Kansas and firming carcass weights, the structural tightness in fed cattle supply is reasserting itself as the dominant market driver. Offsetting factors — rising corn costs, deteriorating pasture conditions, and USDA's bearish September WASDE price revisions — keep this from being an unambiguous "strong buy" signal, but the fundamental supply story favors sellers into year-end.

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2. KEY PRICE TRENDS

• Cash cattle: Trading concentrated late-week (Sat/Sun) as regions like Nebraska and Western Cornbelt sat mostly inactive early week. Northern live sales held steady at $222-223 ($350-355 dressed); Southern trade improved $1-2 to $225-227 after early bids were refused.
• Futures: December live cattle settled near 222.00 (+5.38 Friday) before a modest pullback Monday (-2.55) on profit-taking; feeder cattle October contract still up sharply on the week (330.25).
• Boxed beef: Choice cutout climbed to $378.89 (+2.54), Select to $357.85, with the Choice/Select spread widening to $21.04 — a sign of tightening supply of higher-grading product.
• Feeder cash index: CME Feeder Cattle Index slipped slightly to 338.74, still well off its June 26 historic high of 381.86.
• Grain costs rising fast: Omaha corn jumped to $4.99/bu (+27% YoY), Southern Plains corn even higher at $5.81/bu (+25% YoY) — first time above $5 in nearly three years. This is squeezing feeding margins and tempering how high feeder prices can run.
• Slaughter: Weekly kill estimated at 529,000 head, under estimates and 30,000 below last year — helping support box prices even as beef production trails 2025 levels.

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3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS

1. PLACEMENTS COLLAPSE, FEEDLOT "HOUSE OF CARDS" WARNING: August placements fell 9% YoY to 1.617 million head — the lowest on record. OSU economist Derrell Peel notes the 12-month average marketing rate has fallen to a record-low 14.1%, artificially propping up on-feed inventories via extended days on feed (steer carcass weights up ~75 lbs over three years). Peel warns this can't continue — placements are set to keep tightening feedlot numbers into 2027 as the shrinking calf crop (32.5 million head, down from the 2018 peak of 36.29 million) finally catches up with the system.

2. DROUGHT AND PASTURE CONDITIONS DETERIORATING SHARPLY: Pasture and range conditions rated "Good to Excellent" fell to just 17%, down from 34% a year ago. USDA reports 58% of the U.S. cattle inventory is now in a drought-affected area, versus only 23% last year. Flash drought is intensifying across the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, and now the Southeast. Hay costs have spiked accordingly — alfalfa over $200/ton, up $25/ton YoY — adding real pressure to replacement and cow-calf economics heading into fall/winter grazing decisions.

3. MEXICAN BORDER REOPENING ADVANCES DESPITE NEW SCREWWORM CASE: USDA confirmed it will proceed with reopening the Santa Teresa, NM port (handling ~40-43% of all Mexican cattle imports) on September 24, even after a horse in Grant County, NM tested positive for New World screwworm. No new cattle cases have been reported since July 30. This is a major supply-side wildcard — the port alone can handle 500,000-700,000 head annually and could meaningfully offset tightening domestic feeder supplies, particularly in the Southwest/Southern Plains feeding region.

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OUTLOOK

Ranchers should expect continued upward pressure on fed and feeder cattle prices through year-end as the placements shortfall works through the system and feedlot inventories are expected to fall below year-ago levels in the coming months. However, gains will be capped by three headwinds: rapidly rising corn costs (pressuring feeding margins and backgrounding economics), worsening drought/pasture conditions (forcing early weaning, higher hay costs, and potential involuntary culling), and the wildcard of Mexican import resumption, which could add meaningful supply relief regionally once Santa Teresa reopens September 24.

For replacement cattle sellers, this fall's video and internet auction season remains the biggest marketing window of the year, but many consignors are still posting red ink relative to input costs — expect continued scratches/passes on catalogued lots until confidence in cash and futures rebounds further. Weaned vs. unweaned spreads remain historically wide (~$50 cwt), so prioritize weaning and health protocols before marketing calves this fall. Watch Thursday's Drought Monitor update and next Tuesday's Cattle on Feed follow-through data closely — both will set the tone for whether this bullish tightening narrative extends into October.

DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
September 22, 2026

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1. MARKET SENTIMENT: BULLISH (7.5/10)

Cattle futures staged a sharp rally to close last week and open this one, driven by a much friendlier-than-expected September Cattle on Feed Report. Placements missed trade estimates by a wide margin (90.8% actual vs. 97.3% expected), confirming that feeder supplies are tightening faster than the market had priced in. Live cattle futures jumped $5+ across contracts, feeder futures gained $4-8, and TCR's Cattle Market Index rose nearly 3% Monday alone. Countering the bullish tone: USDA's September WASDE actually lowered cattle price forecasts for Q3/Q4 2026 and into 2027 on softer packer demand, and cash trade remains sluggish with light volume. Net-net, the structural supply story favors cattle owners, but packers are pushing back hard on leverage.

2. KEY PRICE TRENDS

- Cash Cattle: Northern trade steady week-over-week at $222-223 live / $350-355 dressed. Southern cattle firmed $1-2 to $225-227, with early bids refused before sellers gained ground late in the week. Trading has compressed almost entirely into Friday-Sunday windows as USDA's loss of mandatory cash reporting removes price transparency and shifts negotiation dynamics.

- Futures: October live cattle settled 220.95 (+5.03), December 222.00 (+5.38), February 223.10 (+5.75). Feeder cattle also surged — September 337.47 (+3.90), October 330.25 (+6.75), November 326.10 (+8.10) — as the market digests tighter placements and the prospect of a strengthening replacement market this fall.

- Boxed Beef: Choice cutout rebounded to $376.35 (+4.41), Select to $355.77 (+2.51), spread widening to $20.58. Cutout remains well under year-ago levels, but processors are managing slaughter volumes to defend margins.

- Carcass Weights: Steers/heifers averaging 952 lbs, up 3 lbs week-over-week and a striking 20 lbs over last year. Quality grade at 87.8% (near record highs). Longer-term, steer carcass weights have climbed roughly 75 lbs over the past three years — nearly matching the cumulative gain of the prior 18 years combined — a byproduct of a record-low feedlot marketing rate (14.1%, 12-month average) as feeders extend days on feed to manage tight inventories.

3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS

1. PLACEMENTS COLLAPSE, FUTURES SURGE: August placements totaled 1.62 million head, down 9% year-over-year — the lowest August figure since USDA began the series in 1996 — and well below trade guesses. Combined with record-low August marketings (also lowest since 1996), this confirms the "feedlot house of cards" thesis: elevated on-feed inventories have been propped up almost entirely by slower turnover, not more cattle entering the pipeline. As placements fall in line with a shrinking calf crop (2026 estimated at 32.5 million head, down 3.8 million from the 2018 cyclical peak), feedlot inventories are expected to drop below year-ago levels in the coming months, tightening fed supplies further into 2027.

2. MEXICAN BORDER REOPENING ADVANCES DESPITE NEW SCREWWORM CASE: USDA confirmed it will proceed with reopening the Santa Teresa, New Mexico crossing around September 24 — the single largest port, handling 43% of all Mexican cattle imports (500,000-700,000 head/year capacity) — even after a horse in nearby Grant County tested positive for New World screwworm. No new cattle cases have been detected since July 30. This is a modest bearish offset to the tightening U.S. feeder supply, potentially easing pressure on stocker/feeder prices in the Southwest.

3. ARGENTINA'S SHORT-LIVED CHINA WINDOW & SAUDI REOPENING BOOST EXPORT DEMAND: Argentina and Uruguay are seeing a temporary surge in Chinese demand as Australia exhausts its export quota and Brazil pulls back shipments — a window expected to last no more than 60 days. Separately, U.S. beef exports to Saudi Arabia have doubled since BSE-related restrictions were lifted in April, with USMEF projecting a $150 million opportunity as market access rebuilds. Both developments underscore strengthening global beef demand at a time of tightening worldwide supply.

4. OUTLOOK

Ranchers should expect continued upward pressure on both fed and feeder cattle prices through year-end as the placement shortfall works through the system and feedlot inventories begin contracting. The record-low marketing rate and ballooning carcass weights (with associated animal health concerns like congestive heart failure) suggest feeders are stretching supply as far as possible — a trend that cannot continue indefinitely and points toward tighter fed cattle numbers into 2027.

On the replacement side, the seasonal fall marketing rush is colliding with drought stress across the Southern Plains (TX, OK, KS, MO flash drought intensifying; pasture/range conditions at just 19% good-to-excellent vs. 35% a year ago) and a wide, growing spread between weaned and unweaned calves (~$50/cwt). Expect continued scratches and refused bids at video sales until buyers gain confidence in fall/winter forage — rain in the forecast for the southern Plains this week is a needed watch-item for wheat pasture grazing plans.

Bottom line: fundamentals remain constructive for cattle owners into Q4, but volatility, thin trading windows, and reduced price transparency (post-mandatory reporting) will keep both buyers and sellers on edge. Watch Friday's National Weekly Feeder Summary and next Tuesday's Comprehensive Fed Cattle report for confirmation of whether this rally has staying power.

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DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
September 19, 2026

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1. MARKET SENTIMENT: MIXED TO CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH (5/10)

Cash cattle held steady this week ($222-223 live, $350-355 dressed in the north) even as futures cratered for a third straight session. The disconnect between firm cash and collapsing paper reflects packer margin erosion (from $180/head a week ago to just $64.60/head by Thursday) and jittery positioning ahead of Friday's Cattle on Feed report. Bullish supply fundamentals — tighter placements, record-low August marketings — are being overshadowed by demand anxiety, a new screwworm case in New Mexico, and general macro uncertainty. Underlying tightness argues for higher prices longer-term, but near-term volatility and header-driven selloffs keep sentiment guarded.

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2. KEY PRICE TRENDS

• Live Cattle Futures: October settled 215.65-215.92, December 216.25-216.62 — down sharply from levels seen just a week ago near 220-222. Three consecutive down sessions driven by technical selling, margin compression, and pre-report positioning.

• Feeder Cattle: October futures fell to 323.50-324.375 (from over 329 earlier in the week); the CME Feeder Cattle Index sits at 342.50, well off its June 26 historical high of 381.86.

• Boxed Beef: Choice 371.94 (-0.21), Select 353.26 (+1.38); Choice-Select spread narrowed to 18.68. Cutout remains rangebound and well under year-ago levels.

• Cutter Cow Cutout: Plunged to 286.55, down a stunning 46.06 — a signal worth watching for lean beef/grinding demand shifts as import competition grows.

• Packer Margins: Collapsed from $180.45/head to $64.60/head in just one week (HedgersEdge), pressuring packer willingness to bid cash higher.

• Retail: Ground beef hit a fresh all-time high of $7.158/lb in August; overall beef/veal CPI eased to +5.9% YoY (from +9.4% in July), suggesting some retail relief even as farm-level pressure persists.

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3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS

1. COF REPORT CONFIRMS TIGHT SUPPLY PIPELINE: September 1 On Feed inventory came in at 11.2 million head (+1% YoY), but August placements badly missed estimates — down 9% YoY and the lowest August placements since the series began in 1996. Marketings were also the lowest August on record. This is fundamentally bullish for feeder/fed cattle supplies into 2027, even though futures reacted bearishly on technical and margin concerns.

2. NEW SCREWWORM CASE THREATENS BORDER REOPENING TIMELINE: A horse in Grant County, New Mexico was confirmed infested with New World screwworm on Thursday — the second NM case and third active US case overall (alongside a Presidio, TX horse and a TX dog) — landing just as USDA finalizes plans to reopen the critical Santa Teresa port on September 24. Santa Teresa alone handles ~43% of all Mexican cattle imports (500,000-700,000 head annual capacity), so any disruption here carries outsized market weight. Secretary Rollins toured the facility Thursday and reiterated the agency will "shut it down again" if risk resurfaces.

3. IMPORT POLICY BACKLASH INTENSIFIES POLITICALLY: Trump's 300,000 MT lean beef trim tariff expansion (rolling out in three installments through November) is drawing sustained pushback from Florida cattlemen and GOP lawmakers, with Rep. Kat Cammack warning of farm-voter turnout risk. Economists (Peel, Tonsor) continue to stress that the actual retail impact will be limited — imports mainly feed food-service grinding, not the meat counter — but the optics and cow-value pressure remain a live political and market issue. Separately, the cutter cow cutout's sharp drop this week may be an early tell on lean-beef/import interaction.

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4. OUTLOOK

Expect continued choppiness in cattle futures over the next week as the market digests Friday's COF data alongside fresh screwworm headlines. The placement shortfall is a bullish structural signal — fed cattle supplies stay tight into year-end regardless of short-term paper weakness — but the Santa Teresa reopening (targeted Sept. 24) is now a genuine swing factor. A clean reopening would add badly needed feeder supply and could pressure replacement prices further; another closure would remove that relief and likely support cash values.

Watch packer margins closely: with margins down to $64.60/head from $180+ a week ago, packers have less room to chase cash higher, which could cap fed cattle gains near-term even as supply stays snug. Replacement cattle buyers should note strengthening OKC and OKC West trade (steers/heifers 10-25 higher) alongside a widening weaned/unweaned spread (~$50 cwt) — health risk management on calves remains critical as fall marketing season ramps up. Drought conditions are worsening again across the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley, which could complicate wheat-pasture grazing plans and further pressure stocker demand in Texas/Oklahoma. Rain in the extended forecast is the wildcard to watch this week.

Bottom line: fundamentals still favor tight supply and firm cash into Q4, but near-term volatility from screwworm developments, import policy noise, and packer margin stress will likely keep futures unsettled. Ranchers with cattle to move should stay nimble and lean on cash/negotiated benchmarks rather than chasing futures swings.

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DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
September 18, 2026

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1. MARKET SENTIMENT: NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH (5/10)

Cash cattle remains firm — last week's national average of $222.82 was up $3.76 from the prior week, and this week's early trade in the north ($222-223 live, $350-355 dressed) is holding steady despite a rough few sessions in the futures pits. That divergence is the story of the week: fundamentals (tight fed supplies, strong carcass weights, good packer margins) support cash, while futures are getting hit by a mix of screwworm-port-reopening headlines, pre-COF positioning, and broader macro jitters (equities down sharply Wednesday, Fed rate hike). Feeder futures are underperforming live cattle as traders price in additional Mexican cattle supply. Today's Cattle on Feed report is the swing factor for next week's tone.

2. KEY PRICE TRENDS

- Live Cattle Futures: October settled 218.45 (-2.25), December 220.20 (-3.15) — sharp pullback from a one-month high of 222.825 earlier in the week, triggered largely by news the Santa Teresa, NM port will reopen to Mexican cattle next week.
- Feeder Cattle Futures: October 329.65 (-4.20), November lost another 3.875 to 328.90 after hitting a five-week high — deferred contracts are absorbing the bulk of the pressure from expanded Mexican import expectations.
- Cash Fed Cattle: North $222-223 live / $350-355 dressed, steady with last week. South: no reported sales. Weekly average $222.82, up $3.76 week-over-week.
- Boxed Beef: Choice trading in the $375-376 range, Select mid-$354s; Choice/Select spread near $22 — still well under year-ago cutout levels, but stable.
- CME Feeder Cattle Index: 342.74 (+1.16) as of Sept. 15 — well off the June 26 historical high of 381.86.
- Carcass weights: 952 lbs, up 3 lbs week-over-week and 20 lbs heavier than a year ago; Quality grade at 87.8% (near historic highs).
- Consumer prices: Beef/veal down 1.0% monthly but still +5.9% year-over-year (a deceleration from July's +9.4%). Ground beef hit a new all-time retail high of $7.158/lb, up 0.6% monthly and 7.2% annually.
- Grains: December corn 5.3450 (-0.0125); WASDE raised the season-average corn price forecast to $4.80/bu on smaller 2026/27 production. Corn basis in Guymon, OK near +$1.00 December.

3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS

1. SANTA TERESA, NM PORT REOPENING SET FOR SEPT. 24 — USDA Secretary Rollins confirmed the department is preparing to reopen this key crossing (43% of total Mexican cattle imports) next week, with an initial cap of 750 head/day. Rollins toured the facility Sept. 17. This single headline drove Wednesday's steep futures selloff, especially in deferred feeder contracts, as the market discounts for a meaningfully larger flow of Mexican feeder cattle. Full capacity at Santa Teresa could eventually reach 500,000-700,000 head annually. Screwworm case counts remain flat at 49 total (2 active: one dog, one horse), supporting the phased-reopening plan.

2. USDA CATTLE ON FEED REPORT DUE TODAY (SEPT. 18) — Trade estimates point to On Feed at 101.7% of last year (11.268 million head), which would mark the fifth straight month above year-ago levels. August Placements are expected at 96.7% and Marketings at 96.0% of last year. A report in line with estimates would reinforce the "smaller placements, tight future supply" narrative that has been cash-supportive even as futures wobble.

3. TRUMP BEEF IMPORT EXPANSION CONTINUES TO STIR POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC DEBATE — The additional 300,000 MT (661 million lbs) of lower-tariff lean beef access is rolling out in three installments (Sept. 1, Oct. 1, Oct. 31) and has triggered real backlash in Florida cattle country, with GOP Rep. Kat Cammack warning of rancher turnout risk. Economist analysis (Peel, OSU) suggests the real-world impact will be more muted than headlines imply — imported beef is overwhelmingly a food-service/ground-beef ingredient (68% of imports are lean trimmings, already 39% of total ground beef supply), and retail hamburger prices are unlikely to move much. Still, cow slaughter values remain a watch item as cheaper imported trimmings compete with domestic cow beef in the grind.

4. OUTLOOK

Expect cash cattle to hold steady-to-firm in the near term as packers, having clawed back to modest profitability after weeks of losses, keep bidding to protect margins and fill positive-margin slaughter schedules. Slaughter volumes remain below year-ago levels, and fed supplies stay historically tight through year-end — a structural support for cash even as futures wrestle with headline risk. Watch today's COF report closely: numbers in line with (or below) trade estimates would reinforce tight supply optimism, while a surprise on placements could add to the feeder futures weakness already triggered by the Mexican port news.

The Santa Teresa reopening is the biggest near-term wildcard for feeder cattle values — more supply optionality for stocker/feedlot operators, but also a source of competitive pressure on Southern Plains feeder prices as volumes ramp. Reopening is conditional and can be paused if screwworm risk resurfaces, so don't expect an immediate flood of cattle.

Drought remains a genuine concern: flash drought is intensifying across Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and now spreading into the Southeast, with pasture/range conditions at just 19% good-to-excellent (vs. 35% a year ago). Combined with a wide ($50 cwt) weaned/unweaned calf spread and a below-normal feeder marketing pace (down 30.7% vs. the 3-year average for the week ending 9/5), fall grazing and stocker demand will hinge on rain showing up in the Southern Plains wheat belt in the coming weeks.

Longer term, ranchers should note USDA's own September WASDE lowered cattle price forecasts for Q3/Q4 2026 and through 2027 on softer packer demand — a signal that the currently favorable cash environment may not be permanent. Combine that with rising input costs (Fed signaling two more rate hikes this year, higher energy/fertilizer costs, corn price forecast raised to $4.80/bu) and it's a good time to lock in margins where possible rather than assume today's firm cash market extends indefinitely.

DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
September 17, 2026

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1. MARKET SENTIMENT: Cautiously Bullish (6.5/10)

The cattle complex is finding its footing after a brutal $40/cwt slide since late June. Cash fed cattle and futures rallied hard last week to one-month highs before easing modestly this week as traders squared positions ahead of Friday's Cattle on Feed report. Underlying fundamentals remain supportive — tight cattle numbers, Q4 beef production expected to run 3%+ below last year, and intensifying drought that should discourage heifer retention. However, USDA's September WASDE trimmed cattle price forecasts for Q3/Q4 2026 and through 2027 on weaker-than-expected packer demand, tempering the optimism. Expect continued volatility rather than a clean trend in either direction.

2. KEY PRICE TRENDS

- 5-Area weekly fed steer price jumped over $3/cwt last week to $222.82, its best showing since the summer slide began.
- CME live cattle spiked to one-month highs Monday (Oct contract 222.250) before pulling back Tuesday to 218.45-220.70 as traders positioned ahead of Friday's COF report.
- Feeder cattle futures followed the same pattern — up over $13/cwt for the week, then retreating (Oct feeders settled 333.850, down from a peak near 337.850).
- Boxed beef cutout holding firm: Choice $375.81, Select $354.57 (Choice/Select spread widening to ~$22).
- Packer margins improved to roughly $110-155/head range, a notable turnaround from negative margins through spring/summer.
- Hogs are the mirror opposite — lean hog futures hit fresh contract lows, with pork cutout falling to its lowest level since February 2024 ($87.50/cwt). Traders are actively spreading — buying cattle, selling hogs — adding technical support to the cattle side.
- Corn firmed on WASDE's yield cut (season-average price raised to $4.80/bu), a modest headwind for feeding costs going forward.

3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS

1. Flash Drought Intensifying Across the Cattle Belt: Drought worsened again this week across Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and into the Lower Midwest/Mississippi Valley, with temperatures running 10-15°F above normal. National pasture & range conditions remain stuck at just 18-19% good-to-excellent, roughly half of last year's 35-36%. This is accelerating herd liquidation pressure and limiting any heifer retention appetite — a bullish long-term supply signal but a near-term stress on ranchers needing to move cattle or find feed/water.

2. September WASDE Lowers Cattle Price Outlook: USDA cut its cattle price forecasts for Q3/Q4 2026 through the end of 2027, citing softer-than-expected packer demand. At the same time, corn production was trimmed (yield down to 178.5 bu/acre) and the season-average corn price was raised to $4.80/bu — a squeeze on feedlot margins even as fed cattle prices firm short-term.

3. Cattle on Feed Report Due Friday Amid Political Crosscurrents: Analysts expect Friday's September 1 Cattle on Feed count at 11.268 million head (+1.7% YoY), with August placements and marketings both below last year — reinforcing the tight-supply narrative. Meanwhile, fallout continues from President Trump's cattle/beef industry executive order signing, with backlash directed at the ranchers who attended the Oval Office event, keeping industry policy debates (import quotas, tariffs, "Ranchers First" messaging) in the headlines.

4. OUTLOOK

Ranchers should expect the market to remain volatile but underpinned by genuinely tight cattle supplies. The recent bounce in cash and futures is encouraging, but Friday's Cattle on Feed report will be the next major test — a larger-than-expected on-feed number or higher placements could spark renewed selling, while confirmation of tight marketings would reinforce the bullish supply story. Drought remains the wildcard: with pasture conditions near multi-year lows and no meaningful relief forecast for the Southern Plains through mid-September, expect continued pressure to move cattle early and limited interest in rebuilding herds. Screwworm remains a non-issue for now (zero new detections, last cattle case July 30), which removes one tail risk from the market. On the cost side, firmer corn prices following WASDE's yield cut warrant close attention to feeding budgets. Given the choppy setup, hedging tools — contracts, futures, options, and insurance — remain worth exploring as the market searches for a more durable floor.

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DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
September 16, 2026

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1. MARKET SENTIMENT: MODERATELY BULLISH (6.5/10)

Cattle markets are stabilizing after a brutal summer slide of roughly $40/cwt from late-June highs. Live and feeder cattle futures have clawed back more than half of that lost ground over the past two weeks, with October live cattle touching one-month highs near $222.25 before a modest Tuesday pullback to $220.70. Feeder cattle futures posted even larger gains, up $13+/cwt in a single week. Cash cattle firmed in the North and South, and packer margins have swung back into positive territory ($120.80/head Monday vs. negative margins most of spring/summer). Tempering the optimism: USDA's September WASDE cut cattle price forecasts for Q3/Q4 2026 through 2027 on weaker packer demand, diesel hit a multi-year high of $6.00/gallon, drought is intensifying across the Southern Plains, and the Fed is expected to raise rates again this week — all raising input and financing costs for feeders and ranchers holding high-priced inventory.

2. KEY PRICE TRENDS

- Cash fed cattle: Reports vary by region and week, but the clear trend is higher. Last week's 5-area weekly average was $222.82, up more than $3/cwt. Nebraska/Western Cornbelt live sales last week ran $222–224, dressed near $350; negotiated cash was inactive early this week on light demand. Southern cash saw a $4-5 premium move as packers were forced to pay up.
- Futures: October live cattle settled 222.250 Monday (best levels in a month) before easing to 220.70 Tuesday. December live cattle near 223–225. October feeder cattle jumped to 337.85, then eased to 333–340 range Tuesday amid broader market softness.
- Boxed beef: Choice cutout $376.08 (+0.77), Select $356.36 (+1.81) as of Tuesday — modestly firmer, though still trending below year-ago levels. Choice/Select spread near $19.72.
- Packer margins: Positive at ~$120.80/head Monday (down from $155.55 Friday but well above ~$110.75 at end of August) — a key driver behind the return of larger slaughter volumes.
- Carcass weights: 949 lbs, up 4 lbs week-over-week and 23 lbs heavier than a year ago; quality grade at 86.9%, near historic highs.
- Grain: Corn basis strengthening (Guymon, OK at +$1.00 December basis); USDA trimmed corn yield 2.2 bu/acre to 178.5 bu, raising the season-average corn price forecast to $4.80/bu — a headwind for feeding costs.
- Diesel: $6.00/gallon nationwide, a multi-year high, pressuring hauling and input costs across the supply chain.

3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS

1. Cargill's Fort Morgan plant is back online with positive processing margins, enabling packers to push weekly slaughter volumes higher (holiday-shortened week still hit an estimated 505,000 head, exceeding expectations). Larger near-term kill numbers will tighten current feedlot supplies further, since recent placement trends aren't yet positioned to backfill that pull.

2. First equine New World Screwworm case confirmed in the U.S., detected in Presidio County, Texas, near the Mexican border. While cattle case counts remain flat at 48 (no new cattle cases in the past 7 days; last cattle case July 30), the spread into horses raises fresh concern about containment and could reinforce caution around the slow-reopening Mexican cattle import corridor (only ~100 head crossed at Douglas, AZ, over a full week).

3. USDA's September WASDE lowered cattle price forecasts for the remainder of 2026 and all of 2027, citing weaker-than-expected packer demand, even as beef exports were raised on stronger Asian demand and import quotas were expanded (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay import volumes up sharply, 19-155% YoY in various categories). This sets up a tension between bullish fundamentals (tight supply, record demand) and bearish trade/policy dynamics.

4. OUTLOOK

Expect a choppy but constructive tone into fall. Supply fundamentals remain historically supportive — Q4 beef production is projected down more than 3% year-over-year, cattle-on-feed inventories are tight, and record consumer beef demand (per Kansas State's 39-year demand index) continues to underpin values despite high retail prices. However, ranchers should brace for continued volatility: rising diesel and financing costs (likely another Fed rate hike this week), an intensifying flash drought across Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri that is already curbing wheat-pasture grazing plans and heifer retention interest, and a widening $50/cwt spread between weaned and unweaned calves as health risk aversion grows heading into fall runs. Watch this week's Cattle on Feed report (estimates point to higher on-feed numbers but lower placements and marketings than a year ago) and Thursday's Drought Monitor update for the next directional cues. Locking in price protection via contracts, options or LRP insurance remains prudent given the market's demonstrated capacity for sharp swings in both directions.

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DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
September 15, 2026

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1. MARKET SENTIMENT: Cautiously Bullish (6/10)

Cash cattle and futures staged a genuine rally into the weekend, with packers chasing bids higher late Friday as margins turned positive. However, the rally sits on a fragile foundation. USDA's September WASDE actually lowered cattle price forecasts for Q3/Q4 2026 through all of 2027 on weaker-than-expected packer demand, and macro headwinds — diesel at a multi-year high near $6.00/gallon, an expected Fed rate hike this week (with another likely before year-end), and worsening drought across the Southern Plains — all argue for caution. Feedlot supplies remain current, not surplus, which is the main support keeping leverage from swinging fully to packers. Net: near-term price action favors sellers, but financing costs and demand uncertainty cloud the medium-term picture.

2. KEY PRICE TRENDS:

- Cash cattle: Friday trade saw southern live sales mostly at $225, northern sales $223-225, dressed mainly $350 (up to $355). Packers raised bids to $226 in the South just before dark to secure additional supply — a bullish signal of tightening current inventories.
- Futures: CME October live cattle settled 1.85 cents higher Friday to 219.675; October feeders jumped 4.95 cents to 332.5. On the week, October live cattle gained $1.225 to $212.950, deferred contracts up $0.70-$1.05. September feeders rose $3.925 to $324.825, deferred months up $3.25-$6.025 — helped by corn finally easing off its highs.
- Cutout: Mixed and choppy. Choice boxed beef slipped $0.06 on the week to $376.17 before falling further Friday to $375.96 (-$2.41). Select fell $5.21 on the week to $355.87, then bounced $1.60 Friday to $353.67. Seasonal pattern suggests cutout may leak lower until holiday demand season kicks in.
- Regional basis: South has been trading at a premium to the North recently ($222-223 vs $218-219) — an atypical pattern reflecting a heavier supply of cattle currently sitting in Northern feedlots.
- Carcass weights: 949 lbs, up 4 lbs week-over-week and 23 lbs heavier than a year ago. Quality grade at 86.9% (Choice/Prime), up 0.7% — remaining near historic highs as cattle are fed to heavier weights.
- Corn: Futures eased late week; USDA trimmed yield 2.2 bu/acre to 178.5 bu, but WASDE still raised the season-average corn price forecast to $4.80/bu on tighter supplies.

3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS:

- Cargill's Fort Morgan plant is back online with positive processing margins, encouraging packers to push larger weekly slaughter volumes. Holiday-shortened slaughter last week still came in at an estimated 505,000 head — exceeding expectations for a short week, though still 21,000 below the prior week and 68,000 below last year. Watch for slaughter pace to accelerate as margins hold.
- USDA's September WASDE report lowered cattle price forecasts for Q3 and Q4 2026 and carried reduced projections through all of 2027, citing softer-than-expected packer demand — a notable bearish signal underneath the recent cash rally. Beef production estimates were also trimmed on slower fed marketings and lighter dressed weights.
- The first horse in the U.S. has been confirmed infected with New World Screwworm, detected in Presidio County, Texas near the Mexican border. While cattle cases remain steady at 48 with no new detections in the past week (last cattle case July 30), the equine case underscores the parasite's continued regional presence and keeps border-crossing protocols and surveillance in sharp focus.

4. OUTLOOK:

Expect this week's cash trade to test whether last week's gains can hold as increased slaughter volume from the Fort Morgan restart works through the system — larger kill numbers point to more current supply moving through, not yet a herd rebuild. The Fed's decision on rates (90% odds of a hike, per analysts) will add to financing costs for cattle inventories already priced at record levels, a growing concern for feeders carrying expensive cattle longer. On the replacement side, flash drought across Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Missouri continues to worsen, with pasture conditions at just 18% good-to-excellent (vs. 36% last year) — operators eyeing winter wheat grazing should stay cautious until moisture arrives. Feeder and stocker marketings remain 17% below the three-year average, and Mexican feeder cattle imports through reopened ports are trickling in slowly (only ~100 head through Douglas, AZ last week), so don't expect a supply flood from that avenue soon. Longer term, WASDE's lowered price outlook and record beef demand data pulling in opposite directions suggest choppy, headline-driven trade through fall — watch packer margins, diesel/input costs, and screwworm surveillance as the key swing factors.

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DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
September 12, 2026

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1. MARKET SENTIMENT: MODERATELY BULLISH NEAR-TERM / CAUTIOUS LONGER-TERM — Score: 6/10

Cash cattle traded firm this week with live sales at $223-225 and a late surge to $226 in the south as packers scrambled for supply. Futures followed suit, with October live cattle closing up nearly 2 cents Thursday on short covering and firmer cash tone. However, the September WASDE report tempered the outlook by lowering cattle price forecasts for Q3/Q4 2026 and carrying those reductions through 2027, citing softer packer demand. Add in intensifying drought across the Southern Plains and the first U.S. horse case of New World screwworm, and the medium-term picture carries real headline risk even as spot fundamentals stay supportive.

2. KEY PRICE TRENDS

- Cash cattle: South live trade mostly $225, north $223-225, dressed mainly $350. Late bids jumped to $226 as packers chased a few more head.
- Futures: October live cattle settled 217.825 (+1.975), October feeders 327.55 (+1.725) on Thursday. Wednesday's session had been softer on outside market pressure (equities, oil spike above $100/bbl).
- Boxed beef: Choice cutout eased to $377.80 (-$2.97) Thursday after gaining $3.20 Wednesday; Select fell to $351.65. Packer margins remain healthy (~$157/head per HedgersEdge).
- Carcass data: Weights climbed to 949 lbs (+4 lbs week-over-week, +23 lbs YoY); Quality grade hit 86.9% (+0.7 pt), near historic highs as cattle are fed longer/heavier.
- Weekly slaughter: ~526,000 head, down 16,000 from prior week but up 32,000 vs. last year's holiday-shortened week. Total beef production remains below year-ago levels.
- Replacement/feeder market: Southern Plains 500-600 lb steer calves fell to $397/cwt, down $116 (-23%) from February's $512 peak. 700-800 lb feeders at $343/cwt, down $51 (-13%) from April's high. LMIC now pegs Southern Plains cow-calf returns near $1,000/cow for 2026 — down roughly $150/cow from earlier summer estimates.

3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS

1. WASDE LOWERS CATTLE PRICE OUTLOOK, RAISES CORN: USDA's September report cut cattle price forecasts for the back half of 2026 through 2027 on weaker-than-expected packer demand, while corn production was trimmed (178.5 bu/acre yield, -2.2 bu) and the season-average corn price raised to $4.80/bu. Beef imports were revised higher for 2026 on the expanded low-tariff quota benefiting South American suppliers, though the import bump is not carried into 2027.

2. SCREWWORM REACHES FIRST U.S. HORSE CASE: A working ranch horse in Presidio County, TX tested positive for New World screwworm, prompting Texas Animal Health Commission movement restrictions on warm-blooded animals in Presidio and Jeff Davis counties. This marks an expansion beyond cattle-only infestations and raises biosecurity stakes; a widespread Texas outbreak is estimated to carry up to $1.8 billion in economic risk.

3. FLASH DROUGHT DEEPENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS: Pastures rated poor/very poor in Texas and Oklahoma reached roughly two-thirds of all acreage — the worst since October 2022 and the worst September reading since 2012. Exceptional drought now stretches from the Texas Panhandle into central Oklahoma, directly threatening winter wheat grazing prospects and cooling rancher appetite for restocking replacement cattle this fall.

4. OUTLOOK

Expect cash cattle to stay firm to modestly higher into the weekend as packers continue chasing tight fed supplies — total beef production remains below last year's pace and will likely stay constrained through year-end. Futures should keep tracking cash strength short-term, but WASDE's downgraded price outlook signals the rally may lose steam into 2027 absent a demand surprise. On the replacement side, the combination of falling calf prices, worsening drought, and disease risk (screwworm, plus lumpy skin disease activity near Moscow) argues for a cautious, wait-and-see approach to fall restocking — particularly for wheat-pasture programs in the southern Plains where rain is still needed just to get a crop established. Watch for follow-through on the administration's "Ranchers First" initiatives (BRAND heifer-retention insurance, SPUR processing loans) — details on enrollment, rates, and timing remain undefined and will matter more to producers than the announcements themselves. Rising imports (+13% YTD) continue to fill the lean-trim gap rather than displace fed cattle value, but the political spotlight on trade policy is likely to keep generating market-moving headlines in the weeks ahead.

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DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
September 11, 2026

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1. MARKET SENTIMENT: MODERATELY BULLISH (6.5/10)

Cash fundamentals remain firm — fed cattle supplies are historically tight and packer margins have swung back into solid profitability ($156.80/head Wednesday, up from $145 Tuesday). However, futures are choppy, whipsawed by outside markets (equities, surging oil) and lingering trade-policy noise rather than cattle fundamentals themselves. Underlying beef demand is holding up better than expected as retailers transition into fall roast season. Net: the cash market and packer economics support bulls, while macro volatility and policy headlines are capping upside in the board.

2. KEY PRICE TRENDS

- Cash cattle: South closed last week at $222-223 live. North started mid-week at $217-219 live/$345-350 dressed but rallied to $223 live by Friday close — a strong finish that sets an improved base for this week's negotiations.
- Futures: CME October live cattle rebounded 4.075 cents Tuesday to 217.025 cents/lb on short covering, then slipped 1.175 cents Wednesday to 215.850 as equity/oil market pressure offset stronger cutout values. October feeders held up better, gaining both days to settle at 325.82 cents/lb.
- Boxed beef: Choice cutout jumped $3.20 Wednesday to $380.77/cwt; Select fell $3.05 to $352.34. Wholesale values remain below year-ago levels even as spot strength returns.
- Carcass data: Weights hit 949 lbs (+4 lbs week/week, +23 lbs year/year); quality grade rose to 86.9% Choice/Prime, near historic highs as cattle continue feeding to heavier weights.
- Slaughter: Estimated 526,000 head last week, down 16,000 from the prior week but 32,000 over last year's holiday-shortened week. Beef production remains under last year's pace.
- Grain: Corn softened after a strong run-up; basis strengthening into December contract, with Guymon, OK basis near +$1.00.

3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS

1. WHITE HOUSE "RANCHERS FIRST" PACKAGE FORMALIZED WITH EXECUTIVE ORDERS. Following the political fallout from the August 26 tariff-relief/import announcement, the administration signed executive orders this week codifying the BRAND heifer-retention LRP endorsement, Grassland CRP disaster-assistance flexibility, and the SPUR guaranteed loan program for regional/independent processors. Details on BRAND premiums, effective dates and enrollment remain unpublished — it's policy direction without operational specifics yet. Watch for USDA follow-through as the real signal of whether this becomes usable herd-rebuilding support or remains symbolic.

2. PASTURE AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS DETERIORATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. Pasture & range ratings sit at just 18% good-to-excellent, versus 36% a year ago. Flash drought is intensifying from Texas through Oklahoma, southern Kansas, Missouri and Arkansas — the core of winter wheat grazing country. Corn crop condition also slipped to 56% good/excellent. Operators are holding off on stocking winter wheat pasture until moisture materializes, directly softening near-term replacement cattle demand even as fall is normally the year's largest restocking window.

3. IMPORT AND DISEASE HEADLINES CONTINUE TO SHAPE THE NARRATIVE. Beef imports are up 18.7% y/y in July (12.9% YTD), with Brazil's share climbing sharply amid the new 300,000-ton quota-free allowance — though analysts (Peel, Speer) continue to stress imported lean trim substitutes for missing domestic non-fed/cow beef rather than displacing fed cattle producers. Separately, screwworm detections held flat at 48 cases with zero new cases for a second straight week (last cattle case July 30) — a genuine bright spot. Russia, however, imposed a lumpy skin disease quarantine near Moscow following Siberian outbreaks, a reminder of global animal-health risk, though not a direct U.S. market factor.

4. OUTLOOK

Expect continued strength in cash cattle as tight fed supplies and recovering packer margins support bids in the $222-225 live range heading into next week, with dressed equivalents adjusting accordingly. Futures will likely stay volatile short-term, driven more by macro cross-currents (oil, equities, dollar) than cattle-specific news, but the fundamental floor — low supplies, strong quality grades, decent demand — should keep the board from breaking down meaningfully. The bigger story for ranchers is the replacement/stocker market: with drought expanding across the southern Plains wheat belt, expect softer demand and more cattle "passing" through video and internet auctions until moisture arrives, keeping downward pressure on stocker/feeder values in affected regions even as national feeder indices stay elevated. On the policy front, don't expect immediate cash impact from the Ranchers First initiatives — treat BRAND insurance and SPUR loans as developing tools to monitor for 2027 planning rather than tools available today. Keep an eye on the Tuesday Drought Monitor and weekly screwworm updates as the two wildcard variables most likely to move regional cattle math in the next few weeks.

DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
August 29, 2026

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1. MARKET SENTIMENT: BEARISH-TO-MIXED, 4/10

Cattle markets are attempting to stabilize after a brutal multi-week slide, but the underlying tone remains fragile. Live cattle and feeder futures posted their first gains in a long losing streak on Thursday (October live cattle +2.15c to 212.925; September feeders +3.45c to 322.45), aided by a firmer cash market. However, this comes after fed cattle prices fell roughly $30/cwt and feeder futures dropped about $35/cwt since early July. Headline risk from Washington, softening consumer confidence, and the reopening of the Mexican border all continue to cap upside. Cash cattle trade this week ranged from $218-$223 live/$345 dressed, with Iowa notably weak and northern/Texas grids holding near the top of the range.

2. KEY PRICE TRENDS

- Cash cattle: Light early-week sales in eastern Nebraska at $218 live/$345 dressed; bids improved to $220-$222 by midweek with negotiated Texas grid sales at $223. Iowa remained the softest region.
- Boxed beef: Choice cutout $383.47/cwt Thursday (down $1.66 day-over-day), select $360.13/cwt (down $2.55). Both running under year-ago levels despite recent packer margin improvement.
- Feeder/replacement cattle: Sharp weakness at Oklahoma auctions — OKC feeder steers/heifers 4.00-10.00 lower, calves 5.00-15.00 lower; OKC West calves down 20.00-30.00 with "very few friends" reported for all classes. CME feeder contracts for all 2027 months are now trading below $3.00.
- Slaughter: Estimated at 517,000 head last week, up 6,000 from the prior week but still 33,000 below last year. Packers are running plants harder to capture improved margins, though full-year beef production remains about 5% below last year.
- Carcass weights: 947 lbs, up 4 lbs week-over-week and 27 lbs heavier than last year — continuing a trend of cattle staying on feed longer.

3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS

1. Trump Formalizes Beef Import Expansion & Signals Packer Regulation Review — On August 26, President Trump signed a proclamation ("Further Ensuring Affordable Beef for the American Consumer") expanding duty-free imports of lean beef trimmings by 300,000 metric tons (100,000 tons/month) for 90 days starting September 1, encouraging a 25% retail discount. Separately, in a Glenn Beck interview, Trump said he would examine beef processing regulations and called the packing sector — dominated by Cargill, Tyson, JBS USA, and National Beef (85% of capacity) — a "monopoly." NCBA, AFBF (Zippy Duvall), and Senators Sheehy, Fischer, and Moran all publicly criticized the import move as damaging to herd-rebuilding incentives. Analysts note the tariff waiver largely reshuffles sourcing countries rather than materially increasing total import volume, since out-of-quota tariffs weren't limiting record import flows to begin with.

2. August Cattle on Feed Report Shows Record-Low July Placements — USDA reported 11.117 million head on feed as of August 1 (+1.8% year-over-year, below the ~2.5% expected). July placements fell to 1.62 million head, the lowest on record for the month (down ~11% year-over-year and well below estimates). July marketings totaled 1.422 million head, also a record low for July (down 7.4%). Cattle on feed over 150 days rose to 3.4 million head (vs. 2.8 million last year), reinforcing the trend of animals staying on feed longer amid weak cash prices and rising feed costs.

3. Mexican Border Reopening Accelerates — The Douglas, AZ port reopened August 24 for Mexican feeder cattle imports, with roughly 1,300-3,500 head crossing in the first days. Santa Teresa and Columbus, NM ports are set to follow in 30 and 60 days. Historical patterns suggest total 2026 Mexican imports could reach 150,000-250,000 head by year-end — mostly lightweight feeders likely destined for stocker programs or direct feedlot placement, with first slaughter-ready animals not expected until March 2027. Markets have already priced in this supply increase as bearish for feeder cattle values.

4. OUTLOOK

Ranchers should brace for continued volatility and downward pressure on replacement and feeder values as the market digests three simultaneous supply-side shocks: expanded duty-free beef imports, the Mexican border reopening, and political uncertainty around packer regulation. While Thursday's futures bounce and the bullish July Cattle on Feed placements data offer some technical support, the broader narrative — weakening consumer confidence, deteriorating drought conditions (Lower 48 drought expanded 7.3% week-over-week, 24.2% month-over-month), and rising corn costs (basis in Guymon, OK now +$1.15 over December) — points to a tightening margin environment for both cow-calf and stocker operations heading into fall. Expect continued softness in calf and yearling markets, especially in drought-stressed regions of Oklahoma and the southern Plains, as buyers stay selective and forward contracting remains scarce. Packers, benefiting from improved margins and reduced slaughter capacity, hold increasing leverage over feeders — a dynamic likely to persist through year-end. Politically, watch for further clarification on the beef import proclamation's country-of-origin details and any movement on mandatory COOL legislation in the Senate Farm Bill, both of which carry longer-term implications for producer pricing power.

DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
August 28, 2026

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1. MARKET SENTIMENT: BEARISH (3/10)

Cattle markets remain under heavy pressure from a wave of policy shocks that are overwhelming otherwise bullish fundamentals. Cash cattle traded $218-220 live this week in the north (Nebraska), $7-10 lower than last week, with Texas and Kansas owners largely refusing to sell at those levels. Feeder cattle markets have been hit even harder — OKC West reported steer/heifer calves down $20-30 on the week, and CME feeder contracts for all of 2027 are now trading below $3.00. Live cattle futures have shed roughly $30/cwt and feeder futures about $35/cwt since early July. Underlying supply fundamentals (record-low July placements/marketings, tightening feedlot supplies) remain historically supportive, but policy-driven bearishness — tariff relief, Mexican import resumption, regulatory threats against packers — is dominating price action.

2. KEY PRICE TRENDS

- Live cash cattle: $218-220 live / ~$345 dressed in Nebraska, down $7-10 week-over-week; broader ownership resisting sales in TX/KS.
- Feeder cattle: OKC steers down $4-10 (instances to $15 over 900 lbs); OKC West calves down $20-30; national feeder index sharply lower.
- Futures: CME October live cattle settled near 210.78-210.95 cents/lb this week; September feeders near 319 cents/lb, both trending lower on long liquidation and bearish policy headlines.
- Boxed beef: Choice cutout volatile — up to $388.12/cwt Tuesday, then down to $385.13 Wednesday; select cuts similarly choppy ($370.48 to $362.68). Margins remain positive for packers despite prices trading under last year.
- Carcass weights: 947 lbs, up 4 lbs week-over-week and 27 lbs heavier than last year — a bearish signal for near-term beef supply.
- Corn: Prices have jumped from a stable $4.25-4.75 range to over $5/bu; Pro Farmer tour pegs the crop well below USDA's August estimate (173.2 vs 180.7 bu/acre yield), adding to feeding cost pressure just as returns compress.

3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS

1. Trump Signs Beef Import Proclamation & Floats Packer Deregulation: President Trump formally signed a proclamation Wednesday expanding duty-free imports of lean beef trimmings by 300,000 metric tons for 90 days, aiming to ease "unreasonably high" consumer beef prices. In a follow-up Glenn Beck interview, Trump shifted blame toward the "Big Four" packers (Cargill, Tyson, JBS, National Beef — 85% of processing capacity) and suggested he'd review beef-processing regulations to help small ranchers self-process. The American Farm Bureau Federation and other ag groups strongly oppose the move, warning it undermines ranchers for minimal consumer benefit (analysts calculate the tariff relief amounts to roughly $3.25 per American over 90 days).

2. Mexican Border Reopening Accelerates Amid Screwworm Concerns: The Douglas, AZ port reopened August 24 after a year-plus closure, with roughly 700-1,300 head crossing in the first days. Santa Teresa and Columbus, NM ports are slated to open in 30 and 60 days respectively. However, new screwworm cases were confirmed in Sonora and Ciudad Juárez, Mexico — both near reopening border points — raising biosecurity concerns even as USDA reports no new U.S. detections (holding at 46 confirmed cases nationally). OSU's Derrell Peel estimates only 150,000-250,000 head will likely cross by year-end, a modest volume relative to the market's outsized reaction.

3. Record-Low July Placements Overshadowed by Policy Noise: USDA's Cattle on Feed report showed July placements at 1.42 million head — the lowest on record since 1996, down 11% year-over-year — and marketings also at a record July low (1.62 million head, down 7%). Total on-feed inventory rose 2% to 11.1 million head, but the placement shortfall signals continued tight feeder supply ahead. This fundamentally bullish report was largely ignored amid the barrage of tariff and border headlines.

4. OUTLOOK

Ranchers should brace for continued volatility as policy intervention overrides fundamentals in the near term. Packers will keep testing lower bids region-by-region, targeting the weakest sellers first — expect continued resistance from Southern Plains feeders while Northern cattle absorb early cuts. Replacement and feeder markets face a double squeeze: rising corn costs, deteriorating pasture conditions (only 21% good/excellent, down from 37% a year ago), and falling fed cattle prices are pressuring stocker/feeder economics simultaneously. Expect major feeding operations to stay defensive, with forward contracts scarce and unweaned calf marketing complicated by heat stress risk.

Watch for: (1) confirmation of actual Mexican cattle import volumes as more ports open — history suggests totals will be far smaller than market fear implies; (2) further screwworm developments near the border, which could delay or reverse the reopening timeline; (3) any concrete regulatory action from USDA/Trump on packer oversight, which remains rhetoric-only for now; and (4) whether tightening placements begin to show up as reduced fall slaughter volumes and higher carcass weights, which would eventually reassert the bullish supply story once policy noise settles. Political pressure is unlikely to ease before Congressional midterms, so expect beef-price optics to remain a recurring theme in Washington through year-end.

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DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
August 27, 2026

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1. MARKET SENTIMENT: BEARISH (3/10)

The complex remains under heavy pressure from policy shocks rather than fundamentals. CME October live cattle have fallen from 213.60 to 210.95 cents/lb over two sessions, and September feeder futures dropped to 319.275 cents/lb, with 2027 feeder contracts now trading below $3.00. Cash cattle are weakening in sympathy — early-week trade in eastern Nebraska went at $218 live/$345 dressed, $7-10 under last week, with sellers balking at $218-220 bids in Texas and Kansas. Feeder and calf markets at Oklahoma auctions were down $4-30 depending on class and quality. Despite the bearish tone, underlying fundamentals — record-tight placements, reduced marketings, and shrinking slaughter capacity — remain historically supportive, setting up a tug-of-war between policy-driven selling and structurally tight supply.

2. KEY PRICE TRENDS

- Live cash cattle: $218-220 in the North; Texas/Kansas sellers passing on similar bids
- Boxed beef: Choice cutout climbing despite falling futures — $388.12/cwt Tuesday (+$2.43), Select $370.48 (+$5.46), reflecting improving packer margins and strong seasonal demand
- Carcass weights: 947 lbs, up 4 lbs week-over-week and 27 lbs over last year — a bearish supply offset
- Slaughter: ~517,000 head last week, up 6,000 from prior week but still 33,000 under last year
- Feeder/replacement cattle: Sharp declines across the board; OKC West calves down $20-30; drought-driven lack of grass and water is crushing demand for grazing cattle
- Grain: Corn has jumped from the $4.25-4.75 range to over $5, pressuring feeding margins just as Pro Farmer's tour pegged the crop well below USDA's August estimate (173.2 vs 180.7 bu/acre)

3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS

1. Trump's Import/Tariff Intervention Escalates Backlash: The administration's plan to waive tariffs on 300,000 metric tons of ground beef imports (sold 25% below market) continues to roil the industry. American Farm Bureau Federation president Zippy Duvall formally urged Trump to reverse course, warning it "undermines America's ranchers." Secretary Rollins admitted Tuesday she doesn't even know which countries are covered by the plan. Separately, Trump told Glenn Beck he'd examine "too many regulations" on beef processing and called the four-firm packer structure a "monopoly" — a notable shift in rhetoric that could presage new scrutiny of Cargill, Tyson, JBS, and National Beef.

2. Mexican Border Reopening Underway: The Douglas, AZ port officially reopened August 24 after a year-long screwworm closure. Day one saw 692 head accepted (24 rejected for skin lesions) out of ~717 presented. Volume is set to ramp from 700/day to roughly 1,300/day by week two. New Mexico's Santa Teresa and Columbus ports are slated to open in 30 and 60 days respectively; Rollins confirmed Texas ports remain closed indefinitely due to continued screwworm activity there. Industry economist Derrell Peel estimates only 150,000 head of Mexican cattle imports are realistic through year-end, well below the historical 1.17 million head annual average.

3. Screwworm Holds Steady, But Mexican Spread Continues: The U.S. reported no new confirmed screwworm cases this week (steady at 46, two active). However, Chihuahua has logged 183 cases since July and Sonora confirmed its first cases last week, prompting Mexico to intensify sterile fly dispersal in both border states. This ongoing spread just south of the border keeps risk elevated even as U.S. case counts stabilize.

4. OUTLOOK

Expect continued choppy, policy-driven volatility in the futures market over the next several weeks as details of the tariff waiver and border reopening pace unfold. Cash cattle will likely stay under pressure as packers test lower bids region by region, though the historically tight fed supply (marketings and placements both at series lows per the August Cattle on Feed report) should limit how far cash can fall before packers need to compete for numbers. Replacement and calf markets face the toughest near-term stretch — worsening drought (pasture ratings at just 21% good/excellent, down from 37% a year ago) combined with rising corn costs is souring feedyard buying interest and could keep calf prices depressed into fall run season. Watch for further clarity on which countries qualify for the tariff waiver, any expansion of processing deregulation rhetoric, and whether new screwworm cases emerge in Sonora/Chihuahua that could stall the New Mexico port reopening timeline. Boxed beef strength continues to support packer margins, which may eventually translate into more aggressive cash bidding once the current wave of political noise settles.

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DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
August 26, 2026

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1. MARKET SENTIMENT: BEARISH-LEANING, SCORE 4/10

Cattle futures have taken a beating over the past week, driven by two major bearish policy shocks — the Trump administration's 90-day tariff waiver on 300,000 metric tons of imported ground beef and the phased reopening of the US-Mexico border to Mexican feeder cattle. October live cattle fell from the 217-218 cent range to settle at 213.60 cents, while September feeders dropped over 4.8 cents on Monday alone. That said, underlying fundamentals remain historically bullish: the August Cattle on Feed report confirmed the smallest July placement total on record and the lowest July marketings since the series began in 1996. The market is currently caught between real supply scarcity (bullish) and policy-driven import expansion (bearish), with policy noise dominating short-term price action.

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2. KEY PRICE TRENDS

• 5-Area Fed Steer: $225.01/cwt live (week of 8/21), down from $228.52 the prior week and well under last year's $244.25. Dressed basis fell to $355.54 from $365.08.
• Boxed Beef: Choice cutout values firmed early this week ($388.27/cwt) but remain below last year ($406.61). Choice-Select spread widened slightly to $24.31.
• Feeder Cattle: Sharp weakness across the board. OKC feeder steers/heifers were 2.00-10.00 lower, with steer/heifer calves down 5.00-15.00. OKC West saw calves crash 20.00-30.00 lower, with 2027 CME feeder contracts now trading below 3.00/lb. Oklahoma 8-market 700-800 lb steers fell to $352.79 from $368.21 a year ago.
• Grain Costs: Corn at Omaha hit $4.66/bu, up sharply from $3.87 a year ago, squeezing feeder economics further. Pro Farmer's crop tour pegged corn yield at 173.2 bu/acre vs USDA's 180.7 bu/acre estimate — a bullish grain signal that compounds pressure on cattle margins.
• Carcass Weights: 947 lbs, up 27 lbs year-over-year, partially offsetting tighter head counts.

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3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS

1. MEXICAN BORDER REOPENS, TRADE FLOWS RESUME AMID SCREWWORM RISK
The Douglas, AZ port officially reopened August 24 after a year-long closure. Day one saw 719 head presented and 692 accepted (24 rejected for skin lesions), with volume ramping toward 1,300 head/day by week two. USDA plans to open Santa Teresa (30 days) and Columbus, NM (60 days), but explicitly will NOT open Texas ports "anytime soon" due to ongoing screwworm activity. New cases continue surfacing in Ciudad Juárez and Sonora, keeping the reopening timeline fragile. OSU's Derrell Peel estimates only 150,000-250,000 head may cross by year-end — a modest, gradual supply addition, not a flood.

2. TARIFF WAIVER TRIGGERS INDUSTRY BACKLASH, BUT MATH SUGGESTS MINIMAL RELIEF
Trump's 300,000 MT ground beef tariff waiver drew sharp criticism from NCBA and USCA, who argue it undermines herd-rebuilding incentives without meaningfully lowering consumer prices. Critics note the volume amounts to under two pounds of beef per American spread over 90 days — roughly $3-4 in total savings per person. Economists (including K-State's Glynn Tonsor) argue the aggregate consumer impact will be small, while the policy volatility itself is doing more damage to futures markets than the actual trade volume will do to supply.

3. PACKING CAPACITY CONTINUES TO SHRINK AS PLANTS ADJUST TO TIGHT SUPPLY
Following Tyson's Joslin, IL closure and Eagle Mountain, UT shutdown, plus the previously announced Lexington, NE and JBS Souderton, PA closures, the industry is removing an estimated 12,000+ head/day of shackle space. This is a rational market response to overcapacity built during higher-inventory years, and it's helping restore packer margins even as slaughter volumes stay below last year's pace (517,000 head last week, 33,000 under last year).

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4. OUTLOOK

Expect continued choppy, headline-driven futures trading through early fall as the market digests the actual (likely modest) volume of both imported beef and Mexican cattle. Replacement and calf markets will remain under pressure near-term — buyers are already retreating on thin margins, high grain costs, and deteriorating pasture conditions (only 21% of range rated good-to-excellent, down from 37% a year ago). Seasonal calf health risk (heat/weaning stress) will keep buyers selective on lightweight offerings into September.

Longer-term fundamentals haven't changed: feedlot inventories are historically tight, placements are running at record lows, and packing capacity is right-sizing to match shrinking cattle numbers. Cash fed cattle prices should firm seasonally as demand improves with cooler weather, but the spread between cash and futures will likely stay volatile given ongoing policy uncertainty. Ranchers should treat the current dip as a policy-driven air pocket rather than a fundamental shift — but should also brace for slow, incremental increases in Mexican cattle flow and imported beef volume into Q4 that will modestly cap upside. Watch the screwworm situation in Chihuahua/Sonora closely; any escalation could pause the border reopening timeline entirely.

Also on the radar: Canada's retaliatory tariffs (effective Sept 8) on US dairy and other goods add a fresh layer of trade friction that bears watching for any spillover into broader ag trade sentiment, though direct beef/cattle impact appears limited for now.

DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
August 25, 2026

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1. MARKET SENTIMENT: BEARISH-LEANING, SCORE 4/10

Sentiment has turned decidedly cautious after a brutal week of headline risk. Cash cattle fell to $225-$227 live in the north and $225-$226 in the south, down roughly $35/cwt from recent highs. CME live cattle futures hit eight-month lows before a partial recovery. The bearish pressure is almost entirely policy and psychology driven rather than fundamental — supplies remain historically tight — but the combination of Trump's beef tariff waiver, looming Mexican border reopening, and packing plant closures has injected real uncertainty into forward price discovery. Underlying fundamentals (record-low placements, shrinking feedlot pipeline, strong quality grades) remain supportive, keeping this from being a deeper bearish score.

2. KEY PRICE TRENDS

- 5-Area fed steer: $225.01 live (week of 8/21), down from $228.52 the prior week and $244.25 a year ago — a steep $35/cwt decline from last year.
- Boxed beef: Choice cutout $388.27, up from $373.24 the prior week but still below last year's $406.61. Choice-Select spread widened to $24.31.
- Feeder cattle: 700-800 lb steers fell across all major markets — Oklahoma 8-market down to $352.79, Nebraska 7-market $362.88, both well under year-ago levels. Oklahoma City cash trade was 4.00-15.00 lower across weight classes as buyers turned selective.
- Corn: Omaha corn jumped to $4.66/bu, up sharply from $4.37 the prior week, pressured by the Pro Farmer crop tour's lower yield estimate (173.2 bu/acre vs. USDA's 180.7) — adding to feeding cost pressure just as replacement values are falling.
- DDGS: $165/ton, up from $159.50.

3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS

1. TRUMP'S 90-DAY BEEF TARIFF WAIVER SPARKS INDUSTRY BACKLASH: The administration will allow 300,000 metric tons of tariff-free ground beef imports over 90 days, claiming a 25% below-market discount commitment. NCBA and USCA blasted the move as harmful to herd rebuilding, and economists (including independent trader Dan Norcini) called it "a drop in the bucket" — working out to roughly 1.9 lbs of beef per American over the entire window, or about $3.25 in theoretical consumer savings per person. Futures fell sharply on the news before partially recovering.

2. AUGUST CATTLE ON FEED REPORT CONFIRMS HISTORIC TIGHTNESS: On-feed inventory was 11.1 million head (+2% YOY), but July placements of 1.42 million head were the lowest for July since records began in 1996 (-11% YOY), and marketings (1.62 million head) were also the lowest on record for July. Cattle on feed 150+ and 180+ days remain well above last year, reflecting extended days-on-feed as the industry stretches fewer cattle to cover demand.

3. PACKING CAPACITY CONTINUES TO SHRINK & BORDER/SCREWWORM RISK GROWS: Tyson's Joslin, IL and Eagle Mountain, UT closures, plus the Pasco, WA plant listed for sale, add to previously announced Lexington, NE and JBS Souderton, PA closures — signaling packers are right-sizing shackle space to match a shrinking cattle supply. Meanwhile, new screwworm detections in Ciudad Juárez and Sonora, Mexico (near proposed New Mexico and Arizona reopening ports) cloud the timeline for reopening Mexican cattle imports, even as Douglas, AZ was slated to reopen August 24.

4. OUTLOOK

Ranchers should expect continued volatility rather than a clear directional trend in the near term. Cash and futures markets are digesting policy shocks (beef import waiver, Canada trade retaliation, Mexican border developments) that add noise but don't change the core supply story: cattle numbers are historically tight and will stay that way through year-end. Expect packers to keep gaining leverage as cash volumes thin and plant closures consolidate slaughter capacity — plan for continued packer-favorable price discovery in the short run. On the replacement side, feeder and calf prices are sliding on deferred-delivery pessimism; buyers are wary of forward commitments and health risk in newly weaned calves amid heat stress. Corn's move above $5 (nearby) on a smaller-than-expected crop adds further pressure to feeding economics. Any Mexican cattle imports this fall are likely to be modest — Dr. Derrell Peel estimates roughly 150,000 head by year-end, weighted toward lightweight feeders — meaning any near-term supply relief will be limited and gradual. Bottom line: fundamentals still favor cow-calf producers holding cattle, but expect a bumpy, policy-driven ride through the fall marketing season.

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DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
August 22, 2026

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1. MARKET SENTIMENT: BEARISH (7/10)

The market took a sharp bearish turn this week after President Trump's Friday announcement waiving tariffs and quotas on imported ground beef. Cattle futures crashed on the news, and cash cattle prices have already fallen roughly $35/cwt from recent highs. While underlying fundamentals remain historically tight (smaller herd, record-low July placements, contracting slaughter capacity), the combination of policy intervention, eroding cash-futures linkage, and packer margin recovery at the expense of feeders is pressuring sentiment hard. Longer-term supply tightness argues against a full-blown bear market, but near-term price risk is clearly skewed lower.

2. KEY PRICE TRENDS

- Cash cattle: North trade $225-$227 live, $355-$356 dressed; South $225-$226 — down sharply from last week's $228.52 average (which itself was down $6+ from the prior week's $235.21).
- Futures: October live cattle fell to roughly 217-218 cents/lb, feeder cattle near 328-329 cents/lb, both under heavy selling pressure following the Trump tariff/quota announcement.
- Boxed beef: Choice cutout volatile, swinging from $389.93 to $395.28 then falling again; select around $364. Cutout gains are outpacing cash cattle gains — a decoupling that is squeezing producer margins while padding packer margins.
- Feedyard closeouts: Kansas State data show June/July closeouts still profitable ($446/steer, $345/heifer in June), but August flips to losses (-$144 steer, -$265 heifer), deepening further into September-October (-$400+ steer).
- Carcass weights remain historically heavy (943#, +25# vs. last year), partially offsetting lower slaughter numbers and keeping beef production from falling as much as headline slaughter cuts suggest.

3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS

1. Trump's Beef Import Waiver: The administration will allow up to 300,000 metric tons of ground beef imports over 90 days with no out-of-quota tariff, with product to be sold 25% below current market prices. NCBA and USCA both issued sharp rebukes, warning this undermines herd-rebuilding incentives and sent futures tumbling immediately. Details on sourcing countries and specific products remain undisclosed, adding uncertainty.

2. August Cattle on Feed Report: On-feed inventory is up 2% year-over-year to 11.1 million head, but July placements plunged 11% to the lowest level since 1996 began tracking, and marketings fell 7% — also a record July low. This confirms feedyards are backed up with cattle moving slowly to slaughter rather than benefiting from fresh supply, setting up a potential capacity crunch later this year as the backlog clears and feeder supply shortages catch up with empty pens.

3. Packing Sector Restructuring Accelerates: Tyson is closing its Joslin, Illinois beef plant and Eagle Mountain, Utah case-ready facility, and pursuing sale of its Pasco, Washington plant, consolidating around Dakota City, Holcomb, and Amarillo. This follows JBS's Souderton, PA closure earlier in the summer. Structural overcapacity (packers losing $200-400/head since 2023) is driving consolidation — a trend likely to continue and could reshape regional basis levels, particularly in the Pacific Northwest.

4. OUTLOOK

Ranchers should brace for continued price volatility and downward pressure on cash cattle in the near term as markets digest the import waiver and its political messaging heading into a critical fall marketing season. Despite the intervention, the underlying herd-rebuilding story remains intact — supplies are still historically tight, July placements and marketings hit record lows, and feedyard capacity issues are building toward a second-stage crunch once today's backlog clears. However, expect packers to retain pricing leverage in the short run as box prices stay elevated relative to cash, and forward contract offers narrow. Additional risk factors to monitor: the Mexico border reopening (Douglas, AZ port set to reopen Aug. 24) amid new screwworm detections in Sonora and Ciudad Juárez, which could delay or complicate that timeline; deteriorating drought conditions (up 4.6% week-over-week); and higher grain costs squeezing feeding margins further. Cattle owners with deliverable fall inventories should expect disappointing bids on deferred contracts and consider locking in price protection given the technical damage to the futures charts. Longer term, tightening feeder supply and packing capacity rationalization should keep the structural bull case alive once the current policy-driven volatility settles.

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DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
August 21, 2026

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1. MARKET SENTIMENT: BEARISH (4/10)

The short-term tone remains negative as cash cattle prices continue a sharp correction — down roughly $35/cwt over recent weeks — while futures extend their downward slide. CME October live cattle settled at 217.225 (-1.7c) and September feeders fell to 329.125 (-4.225c) on Wednesday, pressured by weak consumer confidence and a soft July jobs report. However, the longer-term picture is more constructive: fed cattle supplies remain historically tight, packer margins have swung sharply positive, and structural downsizing in the packing sector should eventually rebalance leverage. Today's Cattle on Feed report (expected higher on-feed inventory, lower placements and marketings) will be closely watched for confirmation of the supply-tightening narrative.

2. KEY PRICE TRENDS

- Cash cattle: Packers held off early in the week, then pushed $1-2 higher to buy northern cattle at $226-$227; southern sellers passed $225 bids. Dressed sales moved up to $356 from $355.
- Boxed beef: Choice cutout jumped $4.13 to $395.28/cwt while Select fell $1.50 to $364.79 — a widening Choice-Select spread that reflects heavier, higher-grading carcasses and improved seasonal demand.
- Cash-to-box relationship has become unlinked, and USDA cash reporting gaps (three major feeding regions now confidential) are making price discovery harder.
- Packer margins: One of the largest two-week swings into profitability in recent years, driven by falling cattle costs paired with rising box prices.
- Feeder/replacement cattle: OKC feeder steers/heifers 5.00-15.00 lower; calves 10.00-20.00 lower. OKC West calves down 15.00-25.00 in light trade; two large heifer drafts (568# at $387.50, 604# at $365) were a bright spot.
- Corn: December contract pushed above $5; corn crop conditions slipped to 60% good/excellent (61% last week, 71% last year), adding cost pressure to feeding and replacement values.

3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS

1. Packing sector structural adjustment accelerates: Tyson is closing its Joslin, IL slaughter/fab plant and Eagle Mountain, UT case-ready plant, and looking to sell Pasco, WA — following earlier closures in Lexington, NE and a shift to single-shift at Amarillo. JBS has already closed Souderton, PA and a Memphis, TN further-processing facility. Analysts note packers have lost $200-400/head since 2023, making this rationalization inevitable; expect less capacity chasing the same tight cattle supply going forward, which should support packer margins but doesn't guarantee higher cash prices for producers.

2. Commercial red meat production down 2% in July: Beef production fell 5% year-over-year on a 7% drop in cattle slaughter, though average live weight rose 28 lbs to 1,438 lbs. Year-to-date beef production is down 5% from 2025, reinforcing the tight-supply backdrop even as near-term cash prices fall.

3. Cattle on Feed report due today (8/21): Pre-report estimates point to a higher on-feed inventory with both placements and marketings running below last year — a signal that feedyard throughput is slowing and fed cattle numbers will stay tight into year-end, even as spot prices soften.

4. OUTLOOK

Expect continued volatility and downward pressure on cash and futures in the near term as packers exploit their improved margin position and negotiate assertively, particularly with three key reporting regions now hidden from view. Forward contracting will be harder to secure, and deferred-delivery bids will likely disappoint sellers hoping for today's prices. Drought conditions (up 4.6% week-over-week, 14% month-over-month) and a below-average hay supply (down 8.4% from the 10-year average) will keep pressure on replacement cattle costs, especially as higher corn prices add to feeding economics. Longer term, tightening slaughter capacity from Tyson and JBS closures — combined with persistently tight fed cattle supplies — should eventually rebuild some producer leverage, but ranchers should brace for a bumpy fall marketing season with packers holding the upper hand for now.

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DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
August 20, 2026

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1. MARKET SENTIMENT: BEARISH-TO-NEUTRAL (4/10)

The tide has clearly turned in favor of packers. Cash cattle prices have fallen roughly $35/cwt in recent weeks, and processors won another round yesterday, accepting bids well below early asks ($225 live/$355 dressed). Feedyard closeouts are now in the red, negotiated cash volumes keep shrinking, and USDA's WASDE cut its cattle price forecasts through 2027. Offsetting some of the gloom: box beef values remain historically strong, plant closures/labor resolutions are tightening capacity, and pasture conditions—while poor—aren't worsening dramatically. Net: leverage has swung to packers, and ranchers should brace for continued price pressure into fall.

2. KEY PRICE TRENDS

- Fed cattle cash: Down ~$35/cwt from recent highs; October live cattle futures settled near 218.78 cents/lb, feeder futures near 332.95 cents/lb — both trending lower on soft consumer sentiment.
- Boxed beef: Choice cutout jumped to $379.57/cwt (+$4.27) and Select rose to $364.26/cwt (+$13.02), even as cutout values remain below last year. This is fueling a rapid two-week swing into packer profitability — one of the sharpest margin recoveries in recent years.
- Feeder/calf markets: Oklahoma City feeder steers/heifers down $5-15, calves down $10-20 week-over-week; OKC West calves down $15-25. Receipts running only 50-60% of last year's volume. Two standout heifer drafts (568# at $387.50 and 604# at $365) bucked the softer trend.
- Carcass weights: Climbing—943 lbs, up 3 lbs week-over-week and 25 lbs heavier than last year, adding tonnage even as slaughter numbers stay below year-ago levels.
- Grain: December corn approaching $5; USDA trimmed corn yield estimates, raised export forecasts, and pushed the season-average corn price to $4.50/bu — a cost headwind for backgrounders and feeders.

3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS

1. Cargill Fort Morgan Restart: Teamsters Local 455 ratified a new five-year contract, ending the three-month lockout at Cargill's 1,700-worker Colorado beef plant. Employees return around Aug. 24, with slaughter resuming the week of Sept. 7 — a meaningful capacity restoration for a tight-supply system, though it also reinforces packers' improved bargaining position industry-wide (Tyson also announced plant closures/sales last week).

2. WASDE Confirms Weaker Price Outlook: USDA's August WASDE lowered cattle price forecasts for Q3/Q4 2026 and through 2027, citing weaker-than-expected fed cattle demand, while simultaneously raising corn price projections — a double squeeze on feeder margins heading into fall placements.

3. Screwworm Case Surfaces in Ciudad Juárez: A confirmed New World screwworm case just across from El Paso, TX, adds uncertainty to the phased U.S.-Mexico livestock border reopening. Douglas, AZ is still slated to reopen Aug. 24, but the Juárez case raises the risk that New Mexico ports (Santa Teresa, Columbus) could see delayed openings, keeping a lid on near-term import-driven supply relief.

4. OUTLOOK

Expect the downward price slope to continue near-term. Packers now hold clear leverage — cash volumes are shrinking, MPR reporting gaps are widening (two major feeding states no longer reported), and the industry is accelerating its shift toward negotiated grids and formula sales reminiscent of the pork model. Feedyards should brace for continued thin-to-negative margins even as boxed beef strength offers packers room to keep bidding aggressively lower. Replacement and stocker buyers face a bumpy fall: large forward-delivery offerings are meeting cautious buyers, deferred bids are disappointing sellers, and rising corn costs compound the pressure. Persistently poor pasture and range conditions (just 23-25% good-to-excellent, well below last year's 39%) mean supplemental feeding costs will stay elevated. Watch the Cargill Fort Morgan restart in September and the screwworm situation in Chihuahua closely — both carry meaningful upside/downside risk to the supply-capacity balance that's currently dictating this market's direction.

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DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
August 19, 2026

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1. MARKET SENTIMENT: BEARISH (4/10)

Cash cattle markets have taken a sharp hit, with live sales down roughly $30/cwt from recent highs to a $225-235 range and dressed trade at $360-375. The 5-Area fed steer average has fallen three straight weeks ($242.01 a year ago to $235.21 to $228.52 currently). Feedyard closeouts have swung into the red. Technical signals across live and feeder cattle futures point to a confirmed topping pattern, and USDA's August WASDE lowered cattle price forecasts for Q3/Q4 2026 and through 2027 on weaker-than-expected fed cattle demand. Weak consumer sentiment (Univ. of Michigan index down to 51 from 55.2) adds to near-term demand worries. Offsetting these bearish signals: the cattle herd remains the smallest in 75 years, fed supplies stay historically tight through year-end, and packer margins just posted one of their largest weekly swings higher in years — a structural positive for the feeding sector longer-term, even as it currently favors packers in the cash negotiation.

2. KEY PRICE TRENDS

• Fed cattle: Cash trade collapsed to $225-235 live / $360-375 dressed, down sharply from prior weeks. Volume in true negotiated cash sales continues to shrink as more cattle move through negotiated grids and formula contracts. Two major feeding states are no longer separately reported under Mandatory Price Reporting, further limiting price transparency.

• Boxed beef: Cutout values jumped seasonally — Choice cuts near $379.57/cwt, Select up to $364.26, widening the Choice-Select spread to $23.06 from $18.28 the prior week. Packers cut input costs by $7-10/cwt while box prices rose nearly as much — a major margin swing in packers' favor.

• Feeder cattle: OKC reported feeder steers/heifers 5-15 lower and calves 10-20 lower on the week; receipts remain just 50-60% of a year-ago levels. September feeder futures fell to 332.95 cents/lb.

• Carcass data: Weights sit at a record 939 lbs (2 lbs lower week-over-week, 25 lbs heavier than last year); quality grade slipped 0.7 points to 85.9% Choice/Prime, an early sign of a slow quality decline.

• Grain: Corn futures firmed after USDA trimmed yield (180.7 bu/acre) despite added acres, tightening 2026/27 ending stocks; season-average corn price raised to $4.50/bu — a modest headwind for feeding margins.

3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS

1. Packing plant closures accelerate structural rebalancing: Tyson will close/sell plants in Joslin IL, Eagle Mountain UT, and Pasco WA, following earlier Lexington NE closure and Amarillo TX's move to single-shift. JBS previously shuttered Souderton PA and Memphis TN. Packers have reportedly lost $200-400/head since 2023, and further capacity rationalization is expected as the industry rightsizes kill slots to match a shrinking cattle supply — a shift that will hand processors more leverage in cash negotiations.

2. Cargill Fort Morgan resolves labor dispute: Teamsters Local 455 ratified a new five-year contract, ending a three-month lockout/dispute that idled roughly 1,700 workers since April. Workers return around August 24, with slaughter resuming the week of September 7 — restoring meaningful kill capacity right as the industry navigates broader downsizing elsewhere.

3. Screwworm case detected in Ciudad Juárez: A new active New World screwworm case just across from El Paso raises fresh uncertainty over the phased U.S.-Mexico border livestock reopening. Douglas, AZ remains on track to reopen August 24, but the Juárez case puts additional scrutiny on Santa Teresa and Columbus, NM ports slated for later phases — any delay would tighten feeder supply further.

4. OUTLOOK

Expect continued downward pressure on cash fed cattle prices in the near term as packers leverage tighter kill slots and improved margins to push bids lower, while cattle owners face a shrinking pool of buyers and thinner cash volume. Deferred and forward contract bids will likely disappoint sellers hoping to lock in recent highs — the futures curve points to a lower price staircase into fall. Feedyards should brace for further margin pressure and should watch feeder receipts, which remain historically light, as a signal of how aggressively packers can control leverage once Fort Morgan and other capacity comes back online. On the input side, deteriorating pasture/range conditions (23% good-to-excellent vs. 39% a year ago) and hay production down nearly 10% year-over-year will keep pressure on cow-calf producers heading into fall weaning and marketing season, particularly amid ongoing drought expansion. Watch the screwworm situation near the border closely — any disruption to the phased Mexican livestock reopening could tighten feeder supplies further and offer some price support. Longer term, the packing sector's rationalization should eventually support better feeder economics once excess slaughter capacity is trimmed, but that adjustment will take months to play out.

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DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
August 18, 2026

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1. MARKET SENTIMENT: BEARISH-TO-NEUTRAL (5/10)

The market is caught between conflicting forces. Technical signals across live and feeder cattle contracts point down — resistance is holding, sell signals are confirmed, and the consensus is that this market has topped. Feeder futures fell further Monday as weak consumer sentiment (University of Michigan index dropped to 51 from 55.2) raised fresh doubts about beef demand at record retail prices. Yet fundamentals remain historically tight: fed cattle supplies are constrained through year-end, slaughter remains below year-ago levels, and boxed beef values, while softening, are still elevated versus history. Processors are the story right now — margins swung dramatically in packers' favor last week ($7-10/cwt improvement), and structural plant closures suggest packer leverage will strengthen further. This is a market correcting from extreme cattle-owner leverage, not a fundamental collapse in tight supply economics.

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2. KEY PRICE TRENDS

• 5-Area Fed Steer (live): $228.52/cwt for week of 8/14, down from $235.21 the prior week and well under last year's $242.01.
• Dressed fed steer: $365.08/cwt, down from $371.11 and under last year's $382.78.
• Boxed beef Choice cutout: $373.24/cwt, actually up from $366.51 the prior week, but still below last year's $391.39. Choice-Select spread widened to $23.06.
• Feeder cattle (700-800 lb steer, Oklahoma): $356.45/cwt, down slightly from $360.57.
• Feeder cattle (500-600 lb steer, Nebraska): $427.00/cwt, down sharply from $481.38 the prior week.
• CME October live cattle settled 218.775 cents/lb; September feeders fell 1.6 cents to 332.95 cents/lb.
• Corn (Omaha): $4.37/bu, up from $4.27 — rising feed costs add pressure to feeder margins.
• Live cash sales last week ranged $225-$235; dressed sales $360-$375, both wide ranges reflecting regional/plant disruption.

Bottom line: Both live and box prices are now trading under year-ago levels for the first time this cycle — a meaningful shift after months of record highs.

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3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS

1. TYSON RESTRUCTURING CONFIRMED — Tyson Foods announced closure of its Joslin, IL slaughter/fabrication plant, phase-out of the Eagle Mountain, UT case-ready facility, and a "for sale" listing on the Pasco, WA beef plant. This follows Tyson's earlier Lexington, NE closure and Amarillo single-shift move, plus JBS's Souderton, PA and Memphis, TN closures earlier this summer. Packers have reportedly been losing $200-$400/head since 2023; this is the industry right-sizing capacity to match a shrinking cattle supply (currently the smallest US herd in 75 years). Analysts note true "structural adjustment" only occurs if slaughter capacity is removed — selling a plant to another operator or closing further-processing facilities doesn't count.

2. CARGILL FORT MORGAN TO REOPEN — After a four-month labor standoff that halted slaughter since April, Teamsters Local 455 workers voted to accept Cargill's contract offer. Roughly 1,700 workers return around August 24, with slaughtering resuming the week of September 7. This removes a supply-side wildcard and will add back capacity just as Tyson and JBS are subtracting it elsewhere — a partial offset to the industry's net downsizing.

3. SCREWWORM TREATMENT AUTHORIZED / MEXICO IMPORTS SET TO RESUME — FDA issued emergency use authorization for CLiK Extra wound spray to prevent New World screwworm in cattle, sheep, goats and wildlife. Notably, the Cargill report references Mexican cattle imports "resuming this month" after the screwworm-related border closure — a development worth watching closely for its potential to add feeder supply in coming weeks.

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4. OUTLOOK

Ranchers should expect continued downward pressure on cash and futures prices in the near term as the market digests packer consolidation and softer consumer sentiment, even though beef demand has held up better than feared through summer heat. The processing sector's shift toward fewer, more efficient plants means packers will hold more negotiating leverage going forward — feeders should anticipate tighter basis and less aggressive competitive bidding for cattle, particularly for deferred/fall delivery contracts where bids are already disappointing sellers hoping for spot-market prices.

Replacement cattle markets are especially exposed: falling futures are pulling cash bids down, forward contracts are getting harder to find, and major feeding operations are pulling back and adopting a wait-and-see posture ahead of heavy fall marketing supply. Combined with a forecast 8.4% below-average hay production and continued drought expansion in the Northern and Southern Plains, feed and forage costs will squeeze margins on top of price softness.

Watch three things closely: (1) how quickly Fort Morgan's reopening and resumed Mexican cattle imports offset the Tyson/JBS capacity cuts; (2) whether box prices can sustain their seasonal August uptick as cooler weather boosts retail demand; and (3) further Drought Monitor deterioration, which could accelerate involuntary marketing of cattle and pressure feeder prices further. Net effect: a market correction, not a collapse — supplies remain historically tight and will keep a floor under prices, but the easy money era for cattle owners is ending as packers reclaim leverage.