DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
December 16, 2025
1. MARKET SENTIMENT: Bullish (8/10)
Cash cattle prices and futures showing significant strength amid historically tight supplies, though political rhetoric adds volatility.
2. KEY PRICE TRENDS:
- Cash cattle: $230 live, $355 dressed in northern regions
- Choice cutout: $359.46 (+$2.02)
- Select cutout: $347.30 (+$3.08)
- Packer margins negative at -$78.20/head
- Show lists sharply lower across all regions
3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS:
- Slaughter volume dropped to 596,000 head (-4,000 from previous week, -14,000 year/year)
- JBS announces closure of Riverside, CA case-ready facility citing tight cattle supplies
- Carcass weights appear to have peaked; cold temperatures impacting feedlot performance
4. OUTLOOK:
Ranchers should expect continued price strength through 2026 based on:
- Record-low cattle inventory with no signs of significant heifer retention
- Beef production forecast to decline further next 2 years
- Strong domestic demand despite record prices
- Limited import relief potential
- Holiday disruptions next two weeks will reduce kills
CAUTION: Market volatility likely to persist due to political rhetoric around beef prices and ongoing investigations. Producers advised to focus on fundamentals rather than short-term noise. Current market signals support retention of quality females for herd rebuilding, though this process will take 2-4 years to materially impact supplies.
December 16, 2025
1. MARKET SENTIMENT: Bullish (8/10)
Cash cattle prices and futures showing significant strength amid historically tight supplies, though political rhetoric adds volatility.
2. KEY PRICE TRENDS:
- Cash cattle: $230 live, $355 dressed in northern regions
- Choice cutout: $359.46 (+$2.02)
- Select cutout: $347.30 (+$3.08)
- Packer margins negative at -$78.20/head
- Show lists sharply lower across all regions
3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS:
- Slaughter volume dropped to 596,000 head (-4,000 from previous week, -14,000 year/year)
- JBS announces closure of Riverside, CA case-ready facility citing tight cattle supplies
- Carcass weights appear to have peaked; cold temperatures impacting feedlot performance
4. OUTLOOK:
Ranchers should expect continued price strength through 2026 based on:
- Record-low cattle inventory with no signs of significant heifer retention
- Beef production forecast to decline further next 2 years
- Strong domestic demand despite record prices
- Limited import relief potential
- Holiday disruptions next two weeks will reduce kills
CAUTION: Market volatility likely to persist due to political rhetoric around beef prices and ongoing investigations. Producers advised to focus on fundamentals rather than short-term noise. Current market signals support retention of quality females for herd rebuilding, though this process will take 2-4 years to materially impact supplies.
For more detailed information or specific market data, please contact your local extension office or market analyst.