DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
December 23, 2025
MARKET SENTIMENT: Bullish (7/10)
Strong fundamental support from tight supplies and reduced placements, though holiday-shortened trading and some economic uncertainty limit upside potential.
KEY PRICE TRENDS:
- Cash fed cattle: $228-232/cwt, with some regional pressure from muddy pen conditions
- Choice boxed beef: $362.87/cwt, up $1.24
- Select boxed beef: $350.69/cwt, up $4.67
- Futures traded higher on bullish Cattle on Feed report
TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS:
1. December Cattle on Feed report showed placements at 88.8% of last year, well below pre-report estimates of 92.4%, indicating continued supply tightness
2. Mandatory Price Reporting system showing major gaps, with 3 of 5 regions failing to report cash sales, raising transparency concerns
3. Feedlot occupancy declining sharply, particularly in Texas, with some operations delaying purchases due to high feeder cattle prices
OUTLOOK:
Ranchers should expect continued strong prices into early 2026 supported by:
- Historically small placements during fall run
- Reduced feedlot inventories (-2.1% YOY)
- Limited feeder cattle supplies with few signs of herd expansion
- Strong beef demand despite high retail prices
However, watch for:
- Holiday-shortened trading weeks ahead
- Growing concerns about financial prospects for 2026
- Potential Mexican border reopening impacting feeder supplies
- Ongoing price reporting transparency issues affecting price discovery
The fundamentally tight supply situation remains supportive of prices, though near-term holiday impacts and broader economic uncertainty may limit immediate upside potential.
December 23, 2025
MARKET SENTIMENT: Bullish (7/10)
Strong fundamental support from tight supplies and reduced placements, though holiday-shortened trading and some economic uncertainty limit upside potential.
KEY PRICE TRENDS:
- Cash fed cattle: $228-232/cwt, with some regional pressure from muddy pen conditions
- Choice boxed beef: $362.87/cwt, up $1.24
- Select boxed beef: $350.69/cwt, up $4.67
- Futures traded higher on bullish Cattle on Feed report
TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS:
1. December Cattle on Feed report showed placements at 88.8% of last year, well below pre-report estimates of 92.4%, indicating continued supply tightness
2. Mandatory Price Reporting system showing major gaps, with 3 of 5 regions failing to report cash sales, raising transparency concerns
3. Feedlot occupancy declining sharply, particularly in Texas, with some operations delaying purchases due to high feeder cattle prices
OUTLOOK:
Ranchers should expect continued strong prices into early 2026 supported by:
- Historically small placements during fall run
- Reduced feedlot inventories (-2.1% YOY)
- Limited feeder cattle supplies with few signs of herd expansion
- Strong beef demand despite high retail prices
However, watch for:
- Holiday-shortened trading weeks ahead
- Growing concerns about financial prospects for 2026
- Potential Mexican border reopening impacting feeder supplies
- Ongoing price reporting transparency issues affecting price discovery
The fundamentally tight supply situation remains supportive of prices, though near-term holiday impacts and broader economic uncertainty may limit immediate upside potential.
For more detailed information or specific market data, please contact your local extension office or market analyst.