DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
December 30, 2025
1. MARKET SENTIMENT: BULLISH (8/10)
- Strong recovery from Q4 correction
- Record-high quality grading
- Tight supplies continuing into 2026
2. KEY PRICE TRENDS:
- Live cattle: $229-230/cwt, up $2 from previous week
- Choice cutout: $349.33, down $1.88
- Choice/Select spread narrowed to $7
- Carcass weights: 952 lbs, down 2 lbs week/week but 34 lbs above last year
3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS:
- Quality grading hit all-time record high of 86.9%, up 0.7% from previous week
- Holiday slaughter at 429,000 head, down 58,000 from previous week
- Plant utilization rates expected to increase as Tyson closure approaches
4. OUTLOOK:
Ranchers should expect:
- 5-15% price increases in 2026 (vs 25-35% seen in 2025)
- Continued tight supplies due to smallest calf crop since 1941
- Ongoing market volatility driven by political factors
- Strong competition for limited cattle inventory
- Potential Mexican border reopening on horizon, though impact likely minimal
Key Action Points:
- Consider forward contracting given high price levels and volatility
- Monitor plant capacity changes affecting regional demand
- Watch for signs of herd rebuilding which could occur sooner than expected
- Prepare for slower price appreciation compared to 2025's dramatic gains
December 30, 2025
1. MARKET SENTIMENT: BULLISH (8/10)
- Strong recovery from Q4 correction
- Record-high quality grading
- Tight supplies continuing into 2026
2. KEY PRICE TRENDS:
- Live cattle: $229-230/cwt, up $2 from previous week
- Choice cutout: $349.33, down $1.88
- Choice/Select spread narrowed to $7
- Carcass weights: 952 lbs, down 2 lbs week/week but 34 lbs above last year
3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS:
- Quality grading hit all-time record high of 86.9%, up 0.7% from previous week
- Holiday slaughter at 429,000 head, down 58,000 from previous week
- Plant utilization rates expected to increase as Tyson closure approaches
4. OUTLOOK:
Ranchers should expect:
- 5-15% price increases in 2026 (vs 25-35% seen in 2025)
- Continued tight supplies due to smallest calf crop since 1941
- Ongoing market volatility driven by political factors
- Strong competition for limited cattle inventory
- Potential Mexican border reopening on horizon, though impact likely minimal
Key Action Points:
- Consider forward contracting given high price levels and volatility
- Monitor plant capacity changes affecting regional demand
- Watch for signs of herd rebuilding which could occur sooner than expected
- Prepare for slower price appreciation compared to 2025's dramatic gains
For more detailed information or specific market data, please contact your local extension office or market analyst.