DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
December 31, 2025
MARKET SENTIMENT: Cautiously Bullish (7/10)
Current market dynamics show strong underlying support despite recent volatility, with record-low cattle inventories continuing to drive tight supplies.
KEY PRICE TRENDS:
- Fed cattle: Ended 2025 at $228.79/cwt, up 15% for the year
- 500-lb calves: Finished at $480.48/cwt, up 35.9% year-over-year
- 800-lb feeders: Closed at $349.89/cwt, up 30.6% from start of year
- Choice cutout: Currently at $348.20, down $1.13
TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS:
1. Severe supply constraints continue with 2025 calf crop at lowest level since 1941, setting up tight conditions for 2026
2. Japan scheduled March 2026 audit of Brazil's beef system, potentially opening new competition in high-value Asian market
3. Industry analysts warning more U.S. beef plants could close in next 18 months due to tight cattle supplies, particularly in Southern regions
OUTLOOK:
Ranchers should expect:
- Continued price strength but more moderate gains (5-15% vs 25-35% in 2025)
- Ongoing volatility driven by tight supplies and political/trade uncertainties
- Potential regional processing capacity reductions as plants adjust to lower cattle numbers
- Strong consumer demand despite high retail prices, though price sensitivity increasing
The market enters 2026 with historically tight supplies supporting prices, but gains likely won't match 2025's dramatic increases. Focus remains on herd rebuilding signals and impacts of potential plant closures on regional markets.
December 31, 2025
MARKET SENTIMENT: Cautiously Bullish (7/10)
Current market dynamics show strong underlying support despite recent volatility, with record-low cattle inventories continuing to drive tight supplies.
KEY PRICE TRENDS:
- Fed cattle: Ended 2025 at $228.79/cwt, up 15% for the year
- 500-lb calves: Finished at $480.48/cwt, up 35.9% year-over-year
- 800-lb feeders: Closed at $349.89/cwt, up 30.6% from start of year
- Choice cutout: Currently at $348.20, down $1.13
TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS:
1. Severe supply constraints continue with 2025 calf crop at lowest level since 1941, setting up tight conditions for 2026
2. Japan scheduled March 2026 audit of Brazil's beef system, potentially opening new competition in high-value Asian market
3. Industry analysts warning more U.S. beef plants could close in next 18 months due to tight cattle supplies, particularly in Southern regions
OUTLOOK:
Ranchers should expect:
- Continued price strength but more moderate gains (5-15% vs 25-35% in 2025)
- Ongoing volatility driven by tight supplies and political/trade uncertainties
- Potential regional processing capacity reductions as plants adjust to lower cattle numbers
- Strong consumer demand despite high retail prices, though price sensitivity increasing
The market enters 2026 with historically tight supplies supporting prices, but gains likely won't match 2025's dramatic increases. Focus remains on herd rebuilding signals and impacts of potential plant closures on regional markets.
For more detailed information or specific market data, please contact your local extension office or market analyst.