DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
January 1, 2026
1. MARKET SENTIMENT: Moderately Bullish (7/10)
- Tight supplies and strong fundamentals support higher prices despite Q4 correction
- Holiday trade thin but prices recovering from late November lows
- China's new 55% above-quota tariff adds uncertainty to global trade flows
2. KEY PRICE TRENDS:
- Cash cattle: $228-232, $2-3 higher in Texas
- Choice cutout: $347.45, down $0.75
- Futures: Live cattle Feb contract at $230.475, up 1.500 cents
- Feeders: March contract at $344.575, up 2.900 cents
3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS:
- China announces 55% tariff on above-quota beef imports starting Jan 1
- USDA reviewing 4 inspection sites for phased Mexican cattle re-entry
- Carcass weights down 2# from prior week at 952#, but 34# heavier than last year
4. OUTLOOK:
Ranchers should expect:
- Continued price strength in Q1 2026 but at slower growth rate (5-15% vs 25-35% in 2025)
- Tight feeder supplies to persist with 2025 calf crop lowest since 1941
- Increased volatility from political scrutiny and potential Mexican border reopening
- Strong domestic demand but export uncertainty given China's new tariffs
Key action items: Consider locking in historically strong prices while managing downside risk from ongoing market volatility. Watch for details on Mexican cattle re-entry program which could impact regional price dynamics.
January 1, 2026
1. MARKET SENTIMENT: Moderately Bullish (7/10)
- Tight supplies and strong fundamentals support higher prices despite Q4 correction
- Holiday trade thin but prices recovering from late November lows
- China's new 55% above-quota tariff adds uncertainty to global trade flows
2. KEY PRICE TRENDS:
- Cash cattle: $228-232, $2-3 higher in Texas
- Choice cutout: $347.45, down $0.75
- Futures: Live cattle Feb contract at $230.475, up 1.500 cents
- Feeders: March contract at $344.575, up 2.900 cents
3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS:
- China announces 55% tariff on above-quota beef imports starting Jan 1
- USDA reviewing 4 inspection sites for phased Mexican cattle re-entry
- Carcass weights down 2# from prior week at 952#, but 34# heavier than last year
4. OUTLOOK:
Ranchers should expect:
- Continued price strength in Q1 2026 but at slower growth rate (5-15% vs 25-35% in 2025)
- Tight feeder supplies to persist with 2025 calf crop lowest since 1941
- Increased volatility from political scrutiny and potential Mexican border reopening
- Strong domestic demand but export uncertainty given China's new tariffs
Key action items: Consider locking in historically strong prices while managing downside risk from ongoing market volatility. Watch for details on Mexican cattle re-entry program which could impact regional price dynamics.
For more detailed information or specific market data, please contact your local extension office or market analyst.