DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
January 2, 2026
MARKET SENTIMENT: Moderately Bullish (7/10)
- Tight supplies and strong underlying demand support bullish outlook despite Q4 2025 price correction
- Cattle futures showing recovery momentum into new year
- China's new 55% above-quota tariff creates uncertainty for global trade flows
KEY PRICE TRENDS:
- 2025 ended with significant year-over-year gains:
* 500-lb calves: +35.9% to $480.48/cwt
* 800-lb feeders: +30.6% to $349.89/cwt
* Fed cattle: +15.0% to $228.79/cwt
- December saw prices recover from Q4 correction
- CME February live cattle settled up 1.500 cents at 230.475 cents/lb
TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS:
1. China implementing 55% above-quota tariff on beef imports starting January 1, with 2.7M ton annual quota
2. USDA reviewing 4-site inspection protocol to potentially resume Mexican cattle imports
3. Cattle on feed inventory down 2% YoY at 11.7M head; November placements lowest since 1996 at 1.60M head
OUTLOOK:
Producers should expect:
- Continued price strength but slower rate of gains (5-15% vs 25-35% in 2025)
- Extremely tight feeder supplies as 2025 calf crop hits lowest level since 1941
- Ongoing market volatility from political scrutiny and trade policy shifts
- Potential opportunities in alternative export markets as China access becomes restricted
January 2, 2026
MARKET SENTIMENT: Moderately Bullish (7/10)
- Tight supplies and strong underlying demand support bullish outlook despite Q4 2025 price correction
- Cattle futures showing recovery momentum into new year
- China's new 55% above-quota tariff creates uncertainty for global trade flows
KEY PRICE TRENDS:
- 2025 ended with significant year-over-year gains:
* 500-lb calves: +35.9% to $480.48/cwt
* 800-lb feeders: +30.6% to $349.89/cwt
* Fed cattle: +15.0% to $228.79/cwt
- December saw prices recover from Q4 correction
- CME February live cattle settled up 1.500 cents at 230.475 cents/lb
TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS:
1. China implementing 55% above-quota tariff on beef imports starting January 1, with 2.7M ton annual quota
2. USDA reviewing 4-site inspection protocol to potentially resume Mexican cattle imports
3. Cattle on feed inventory down 2% YoY at 11.7M head; November placements lowest since 1996 at 1.60M head
OUTLOOK:
Producers should expect:
- Continued price strength but slower rate of gains (5-15% vs 25-35% in 2025)
- Extremely tight feeder supplies as 2025 calf crop hits lowest level since 1941
- Ongoing market volatility from political scrutiny and trade policy shifts
- Potential opportunities in alternative export markets as China access becomes restricted
For more detailed information or specific market data, please contact your local extension office or market analyst.