DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
January 13, 2026
MARKET SENTIMENT: Moderately Bullish (7/10)
- Strong fundamentals with tight supplies and robust demand despite high retail prices
- Continued Mexican border closure and screwworm concerns supporting prices
- Some profit-taking emerged after recent rally to highest levels since October
KEY PRICE TRENDS:
- Live cattle futures retreated with February contract closing at $233.73, down $1.55
- Cash fed cattle traded at $233, up $1 from previous week
- Carcass weights running heavy at 954 lbs, up 35 lbs year-over-year
- Boxed beef Choice cutout at $357.11, up $1.48
TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS:
1. EU cleared landmark Mercosur trade deal after 25 years of talks, potentially increasing global beef trade flows despite farmer protests
2. New screwworm cases reported within 200 miles of US-Mexico border, including in wild boars, likely keeping border restrictions in place
3. USDA raised 2026 beef production forecast on heavier carcass weights despite expected reduced fed cattle slaughter in second half
OUTLOOK:
Ranchers should expect continued strong prices through Q1 2026 supported by:
- Declining placements and tighter fed cattle supplies
- Strong domestic demand, particularly from upper income consumers
- Limited import competition with Brazil already filling quota
- However, increasing production costs and volatile futures suggest maintaining risk management strategies through puts and LRP insurance is critical
Risks to monitor include potential recession impacts on demand and summer pasture conditions affecting herd expansion potential. Focus remains on managing input costs while protecting downside price risk in this high-price environment.
January 13, 2026
MARKET SENTIMENT: Moderately Bullish (7/10)
- Strong fundamentals with tight supplies and robust demand despite high retail prices
- Continued Mexican border closure and screwworm concerns supporting prices
- Some profit-taking emerged after recent rally to highest levels since October
KEY PRICE TRENDS:
- Live cattle futures retreated with February contract closing at $233.73, down $1.55
- Cash fed cattle traded at $233, up $1 from previous week
- Carcass weights running heavy at 954 lbs, up 35 lbs year-over-year
- Boxed beef Choice cutout at $357.11, up $1.48
TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS:
1. EU cleared landmark Mercosur trade deal after 25 years of talks, potentially increasing global beef trade flows despite farmer protests
2. New screwworm cases reported within 200 miles of US-Mexico border, including in wild boars, likely keeping border restrictions in place
3. USDA raised 2026 beef production forecast on heavier carcass weights despite expected reduced fed cattle slaughter in second half
OUTLOOK:
Ranchers should expect continued strong prices through Q1 2026 supported by:
- Declining placements and tighter fed cattle supplies
- Strong domestic demand, particularly from upper income consumers
- Limited import competition with Brazil already filling quota
- However, increasing production costs and volatile futures suggest maintaining risk management strategies through puts and LRP insurance is critical
Risks to monitor include potential recession impacts on demand and summer pasture conditions affecting herd expansion potential. Focus remains on managing input costs while protecting downside price risk in this high-price environment.
For more detailed information or specific market data, please contact your local extension office or market analyst.