DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
January 31, 2026
1. MARKET SENTIMENT: Bearish (4/10)
- Cattle futures weakening due to extreme winter weather impacts
- Cash markets stalled with reduced slaughter volumes
- USDA inventory report shows continued tight supplies but minimal herd rebuilding
2. KEY PRICE TRENDS:
- Live cattle futures: April contract down to $237.275
- Cash prices range $238-241 live, $375-377 dressed
- Choice boxed beef dropped $2.08 to $367.66/cwt
- Select boxed beef fell $2.85 to $360.72/cwt
3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS:
- January 1 cattle inventory shows total herd slightly lower at 86.2M head, with beef cows down 1%
- Severe winter weather causing extensive agricultural damage across Texas and other states
- Beef exports remain significantly lower year-over-year due to continued China market lockout
4. OUTLOOK:
Ranchers should expect:
- Near-term price pressure from weather-related slaughter disruptions and reduced cattle performance
- Limited herd expansion signals continued tight supplies through 2026
- Feed costs to remain elevated with corn basis levels strong in key feeding regions
- Continued export challenges without resolution to China market access
The combination of extreme weather impacts and minimal herd rebuilding suggests sustained tight supplies but near-term market volatility as the industry works through weather-related disruptions. Focus remains on managing input costs and protecting against weather risks.
January 31, 2026
1. MARKET SENTIMENT: Bearish (4/10)
- Cattle futures weakening due to extreme winter weather impacts
- Cash markets stalled with reduced slaughter volumes
- USDA inventory report shows continued tight supplies but minimal herd rebuilding
2. KEY PRICE TRENDS:
- Live cattle futures: April contract down to $237.275
- Cash prices range $238-241 live, $375-377 dressed
- Choice boxed beef dropped $2.08 to $367.66/cwt
- Select boxed beef fell $2.85 to $360.72/cwt
3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS:
- January 1 cattle inventory shows total herd slightly lower at 86.2M head, with beef cows down 1%
- Severe winter weather causing extensive agricultural damage across Texas and other states
- Beef exports remain significantly lower year-over-year due to continued China market lockout
4. OUTLOOK:
Ranchers should expect:
- Near-term price pressure from weather-related slaughter disruptions and reduced cattle performance
- Limited herd expansion signals continued tight supplies through 2026
- Feed costs to remain elevated with corn basis levels strong in key feeding regions
- Continued export challenges without resolution to China market access
The combination of extreme weather impacts and minimal herd rebuilding suggests sustained tight supplies but near-term market volatility as the industry works through weather-related disruptions. Focus remains on managing input costs and protecting against weather risks.
For more detailed information or specific market data, please contact your local extension office or market analyst.