DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
February 4, 2026
1. MARKET SENTIMENT: BULLISH (8/10)
- Record-high cattle prices continue amid historically tight supplies
- USDA confirms lowest total cattle numbers since 1951
- Strong packer margins and robust domestic demand supporting prices
2. KEY PRICE TRENDS:
- Live Cattle: April futures up $2.725 to $239.525
- Feeder Cattle: March futures up $6.075 to $366.350
- Cash cattle trading $5 higher at $238-241 live, $375-377 dressed
- Choice boxed beef: Up $2.50 to $370.71
- Select boxed beef: Up $2.32 to $367.23
3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS:
- Tyson Foods reports strong Q1 earnings as chicken demand offsets beef losses; CEO confirms tight cattle supplies expected through 2027
- Texas Agriculture Commissioner proposes new Heifer Retention Tax Credit to incentivize herd rebuilding
- USDA to release sterile flies near Texas border to combat screwworm spread from Mexico; border remains closed to Mexican cattle imports
4. OUTLOOK:
Ranchers should expect continued strong prices through 2026 as multiple factors support the market:
- Weekly slaughter volumes down 73,000 head year-over-year at 529,000
- Herd rebuilding remains minimal per USDA January inventory report
- Border closure with Mexico further tightening supplies
- Record-high grading percentages (87.7% Choice or higher) reflecting quality
- Caution warranted on extremely high feeder cattle placement costs, with current breakevens showing potential losses despite strong market
BOTTOM LINE: The supply-driven bull market maintains momentum, but record prices are creating profitability challenges for feeders despite robust consumer demand. Herd rebuilding appears delayed into late 2026 at earliest.
February 4, 2026
1. MARKET SENTIMENT: BULLISH (8/10)
- Record-high cattle prices continue amid historically tight supplies
- USDA confirms lowest total cattle numbers since 1951
- Strong packer margins and robust domestic demand supporting prices
2. KEY PRICE TRENDS:
- Live Cattle: April futures up $2.725 to $239.525
- Feeder Cattle: March futures up $6.075 to $366.350
- Cash cattle trading $5 higher at $238-241 live, $375-377 dressed
- Choice boxed beef: Up $2.50 to $370.71
- Select boxed beef: Up $2.32 to $367.23
3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS:
- Tyson Foods reports strong Q1 earnings as chicken demand offsets beef losses; CEO confirms tight cattle supplies expected through 2027
- Texas Agriculture Commissioner proposes new Heifer Retention Tax Credit to incentivize herd rebuilding
- USDA to release sterile flies near Texas border to combat screwworm spread from Mexico; border remains closed to Mexican cattle imports
4. OUTLOOK:
Ranchers should expect continued strong prices through 2026 as multiple factors support the market:
- Weekly slaughter volumes down 73,000 head year-over-year at 529,000
- Herd rebuilding remains minimal per USDA January inventory report
- Border closure with Mexico further tightening supplies
- Record-high grading percentages (87.7% Choice or higher) reflecting quality
- Caution warranted on extremely high feeder cattle placement costs, with current breakevens showing potential losses despite strong market
BOTTOM LINE: The supply-driven bull market maintains momentum, but record prices are creating profitability challenges for feeders despite robust consumer demand. Herd rebuilding appears delayed into late 2026 at earliest.
For more detailed information or specific market data, please contact your local extension office or market analyst.