DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
April 11, 2026
1. MARKET SENTIMENT: BULLISH - 8/10
The cattle market continues to demonstrate exceptional strength with cash cattle prices moving $4 higher late in the week. Strong buyer aggression, limited cattle availability, and seasonal demand improvements are creating a powerful upward price trajectory despite high retail prices.
2. KEY PRICE TRENDS:
- Fed cattle: Late Friday sales in the north at $250/cwt, $4 higher than last week
- Questionable transaction: 2,400 head in Texas at $244 reported mid-week (appears to be an outlier)
- Box prices: Mixed results with Select cuts trading higher than Choice
- Carcass weights: Currently 955 lbs, 2 lbs lower than prior week but 40 lbs heavier than last year
- Calf prices: Steer calves under 500 lbs trading 25-30¢/lb higher, with basis levels reaching $140/cwt over futures
3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS:
a) SLAUGHTER SHORTFALL: Weekly slaughter totaled 533,000 head (10,000 over previous week but 53,000 under last year), raising questions about USDA on-feed numbers and suggesting tighter supplies than previously estimated.
b) MIDDLE EAST CEASE FIRE UNCERTAINTY: The tentative cease fire agreement and reopening of shipping lanes is showing signs of stress. Parties will be negotiating a signed agreement this weekend, with energy prices already reacting (gasoline up 21.2% in March).
c) GLOBAL BEEF PRODUCTION DECLINE: USDA-FAS projects global beef production to decrease 1% in 2026 to 61.6 million metric tons, the lowest in three years. Global beef exports are forecast to decline 1% to 13.8 million MT.
4. OUTLOOK:
Ranchers should expect continued strength in the cattle market through spring as seasonal demand improves post-Easter. The slaughter shortfall suggests cattle supplies are tighter than previously believed, creating additional upward price pressure. Empty feedlot pens across the plains are driving aggressive buyer behavior for replacement cattle.
Key cautions include extreme negative feeding margins that could eventually pressure the market, potential drought expansion (particularly in Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles, western Kansas, and parts of Colorado, Montana, and Wyoming), and the possibility of demand resistance at record-high retail beef prices ($9.55/lb for all-fresh beef in March, up 13% from last year).
The market is currently breaking with historical seasonal patterns. While many expected the top of this cattle cycle was already in, recent price action suggests otherwise. Producers should consider locking in historically high prices while managing input costs carefully, particularly with corn prices rising to $4.50/bushel in Omaha in late March.
April 11, 2026
1. MARKET SENTIMENT: BULLISH - 8/10
The cattle market continues to demonstrate exceptional strength with cash cattle prices moving $4 higher late in the week. Strong buyer aggression, limited cattle availability, and seasonal demand improvements are creating a powerful upward price trajectory despite high retail prices.
2. KEY PRICE TRENDS:
- Fed cattle: Late Friday sales in the north at $250/cwt, $4 higher than last week
- Questionable transaction: 2,400 head in Texas at $244 reported mid-week (appears to be an outlier)
- Box prices: Mixed results with Select cuts trading higher than Choice
- Carcass weights: Currently 955 lbs, 2 lbs lower than prior week but 40 lbs heavier than last year
- Calf prices: Steer calves under 500 lbs trading 25-30¢/lb higher, with basis levels reaching $140/cwt over futures
3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS:
a) SLAUGHTER SHORTFALL: Weekly slaughter totaled 533,000 head (10,000 over previous week but 53,000 under last year), raising questions about USDA on-feed numbers and suggesting tighter supplies than previously estimated.
b) MIDDLE EAST CEASE FIRE UNCERTAINTY: The tentative cease fire agreement and reopening of shipping lanes is showing signs of stress. Parties will be negotiating a signed agreement this weekend, with energy prices already reacting (gasoline up 21.2% in March).
c) GLOBAL BEEF PRODUCTION DECLINE: USDA-FAS projects global beef production to decrease 1% in 2026 to 61.6 million metric tons, the lowest in three years. Global beef exports are forecast to decline 1% to 13.8 million MT.
4. OUTLOOK:
Ranchers should expect continued strength in the cattle market through spring as seasonal demand improves post-Easter. The slaughter shortfall suggests cattle supplies are tighter than previously believed, creating additional upward price pressure. Empty feedlot pens across the plains are driving aggressive buyer behavior for replacement cattle.
Key cautions include extreme negative feeding margins that could eventually pressure the market, potential drought expansion (particularly in Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles, western Kansas, and parts of Colorado, Montana, and Wyoming), and the possibility of demand resistance at record-high retail beef prices ($9.55/lb for all-fresh beef in March, up 13% from last year).
The market is currently breaking with historical seasonal patterns. While many expected the top of this cattle cycle was already in, recent price action suggests otherwise. Producers should consider locking in historically high prices while managing input costs carefully, particularly with corn prices rising to $4.50/bushel in Omaha in late March.
For more detailed information or specific market data, please contact your local extension office or market analyst.