DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
April 16, 2026
1. MARKET SENTIMENT: STRONGLY BULLISH (8/10)
The market continues its remarkable rally with live cattle futures reaching all-time record highs. Cash cattle markets are strengthening on tight supplies, with feedlots gaining leverage as packers need inventory. The bullish momentum is being driven by historically low commercial long positions, managed money heavily investing in the sector, and production constraints across major global producers.
2. KEY PRICE TRENDS:
• Live cattle futures hit life-of-contract and all-time record highs, surging $20/cwt in just over two weeks
• Cash fed cattle trading mostly $248-$250, with dairy crosses selling at slight discounts ($248)
• Choice cutout at $380.90 (down $6.88 week-over-week), Select at $381.34 (down $4.85)
• Ground beef retail price at $6.70/lb (+16% year-over-year), steak prices at $12.73/lb (+16% year-over-year)
• Feeder cattle trending higher but remain below October highs
3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS:
• JBS Greeley plant workers ratified a new two-year labor agreement, ending a three-week strike, though last week's slaughter still came in lower than expected at 512,000 head (vs. 566,000 last year)
• New World Screwworm detected just 90 miles from Texas border in Nuevo León, Mexico, posing an imminent threat to U.S. cattle herds and requiring heightened vigilance
• USDA launched a new National Feeder & Stocker Cattle dashboard providing interactive, customizable market data tools to help producers make better marketing decisions
4. OUTLOOK:
Ranchers should expect continued strong prices in the near term but remain vigilant about potential threats. The unprecedented five consecutive days of Select beef trading over Choice signals extremely tight supplies of lower-graded beef. However, warning signs include retail beef prices reaching potential consumer resistance points, deteriorating packer margins moving back into the red, and concerning macroeconomic indicators like surging inflation and record-low consumer sentiment.
The ongoing drought in key cattle regions (Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles, western Kansas, parts of Colorado, Montana, Wyoming) will likely continue to impact herd rebuilding efforts. Global beef production is projected to decrease 1.1% in 2026, with declines in the top four producing countries. Cattle feeders should closely monitor consumer demand signals as the key driver of this bull market, especially with the Iran conflict potentially impacting consumer spending power.
April 16, 2026
1. MARKET SENTIMENT: STRONGLY BULLISH (8/10)
The market continues its remarkable rally with live cattle futures reaching all-time record highs. Cash cattle markets are strengthening on tight supplies, with feedlots gaining leverage as packers need inventory. The bullish momentum is being driven by historically low commercial long positions, managed money heavily investing in the sector, and production constraints across major global producers.
2. KEY PRICE TRENDS:
• Live cattle futures hit life-of-contract and all-time record highs, surging $20/cwt in just over two weeks
• Cash fed cattle trading mostly $248-$250, with dairy crosses selling at slight discounts ($248)
• Choice cutout at $380.90 (down $6.88 week-over-week), Select at $381.34 (down $4.85)
• Ground beef retail price at $6.70/lb (+16% year-over-year), steak prices at $12.73/lb (+16% year-over-year)
• Feeder cattle trending higher but remain below October highs
3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS:
• JBS Greeley plant workers ratified a new two-year labor agreement, ending a three-week strike, though last week's slaughter still came in lower than expected at 512,000 head (vs. 566,000 last year)
• New World Screwworm detected just 90 miles from Texas border in Nuevo León, Mexico, posing an imminent threat to U.S. cattle herds and requiring heightened vigilance
• USDA launched a new National Feeder & Stocker Cattle dashboard providing interactive, customizable market data tools to help producers make better marketing decisions
4. OUTLOOK:
Ranchers should expect continued strong prices in the near term but remain vigilant about potential threats. The unprecedented five consecutive days of Select beef trading over Choice signals extremely tight supplies of lower-graded beef. However, warning signs include retail beef prices reaching potential consumer resistance points, deteriorating packer margins moving back into the red, and concerning macroeconomic indicators like surging inflation and record-low consumer sentiment.
The ongoing drought in key cattle regions (Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles, western Kansas, parts of Colorado, Montana, Wyoming) will likely continue to impact herd rebuilding efforts. Global beef production is projected to decrease 1.1% in 2026, with declines in the top four producing countries. Cattle feeders should closely monitor consumer demand signals as the key driver of this bull market, especially with the Iran conflict potentially impacting consumer spending power.
For more detailed information or specific market data, please contact your local extension office or market analyst.