DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
April 18, 2026
1. MARKET SENTIMENT: BULLISH - 7/10
Despite futures market weakness, cash cattle prices remain strong with live sales reaching $248-250 across regions. The disconnect between cash and futures markets, along with continued tight supplies, supports the bullish sentiment despite some headwinds from drought concerns and potential Mexican border reopening.
2. KEY PRICE TRENDS:
• Cash cattle: Southern sales at $248-249, Northern dressed sales $388-392
• Box prices: Flat in late-week trading as packer margins suffered
• Feeder cattle: Oklahoma City reported steers steady to $5 higher, heifers $10-15 higher
• Slaughter volume: 512,000 head, down 21,000 from previous week and 52,000 below last year
• Carcass weights: Averaging 958 lbs, 3 lbs higher than prior week and 43 lbs heavier than last year
3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS:
• BORDER REOPENING RUMORS: Strong indications the US-Mexico border may soon reopen to cattle imports, likely with a phased approach from west to east. This would end the closure that began in November 2024, though immediate supply impact may be limited.
• CATTLE ON FEED REPORT: April 1 inventory down 1% year-over-year at 11.6 million head. March placements down 7% from 2025 at 1.71 million head (second lowest March since 1996). Marketings down 6% at 1.63 million head.
• MIDDLE EAST DEVELOPMENTS: Cease-fire announced between Israel and Lebanon with incentives for extended peace between Trump administration and Iran. Iran announced opening of Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to fall this morning.
4. OUTLOOK:
Ranchers should expect continued strong cash prices in the near term despite futures market weakness. The potential border reopening with Mexico is unlikely to cause immediate material changes to cattle supply, as many cattle previously exported to the US are now being finished in Mexico and crossing as beef. Drought conditions are expanding in key production regions, particularly in the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles, western Kansas, and parts of Colorado, Montana and Wyoming, which may accelerate some cattle movements and limit herd rebuilding efforts.
Quality grade remains historically high at 89.6%, but seasonal declines are expected through summer. Heavy carcass weights are changing processing specifications, with retailers reformatting cuts and marketing strategies to adjust to the new reality of beef offerings. Prime beef now exceeds Select grade in volume.
Feedlot margins remain concerning, with high replacement costs creating potential for significant losses if cash markets turn lower. Weather will be a key factor to watch, with wildfire risk elevated in the central plains following significant losses in Nebraska.
April 18, 2026
1. MARKET SENTIMENT: BULLISH - 7/10
Despite futures market weakness, cash cattle prices remain strong with live sales reaching $248-250 across regions. The disconnect between cash and futures markets, along with continued tight supplies, supports the bullish sentiment despite some headwinds from drought concerns and potential Mexican border reopening.
2. KEY PRICE TRENDS:
• Cash cattle: Southern sales at $248-249, Northern dressed sales $388-392
• Box prices: Flat in late-week trading as packer margins suffered
• Feeder cattle: Oklahoma City reported steers steady to $5 higher, heifers $10-15 higher
• Slaughter volume: 512,000 head, down 21,000 from previous week and 52,000 below last year
• Carcass weights: Averaging 958 lbs, 3 lbs higher than prior week and 43 lbs heavier than last year
3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS:
• BORDER REOPENING RUMORS: Strong indications the US-Mexico border may soon reopen to cattle imports, likely with a phased approach from west to east. This would end the closure that began in November 2024, though immediate supply impact may be limited.
• CATTLE ON FEED REPORT: April 1 inventory down 1% year-over-year at 11.6 million head. March placements down 7% from 2025 at 1.71 million head (second lowest March since 1996). Marketings down 6% at 1.63 million head.
• MIDDLE EAST DEVELOPMENTS: Cease-fire announced between Israel and Lebanon with incentives for extended peace between Trump administration and Iran. Iran announced opening of Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to fall this morning.
4. OUTLOOK:
Ranchers should expect continued strong cash prices in the near term despite futures market weakness. The potential border reopening with Mexico is unlikely to cause immediate material changes to cattle supply, as many cattle previously exported to the US are now being finished in Mexico and crossing as beef. Drought conditions are expanding in key production regions, particularly in the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles, western Kansas, and parts of Colorado, Montana and Wyoming, which may accelerate some cattle movements and limit herd rebuilding efforts.
Quality grade remains historically high at 89.6%, but seasonal declines are expected through summer. Heavy carcass weights are changing processing specifications, with retailers reformatting cuts and marketing strategies to adjust to the new reality of beef offerings. Prime beef now exceeds Select grade in volume.
Feedlot margins remain concerning, with high replacement costs creating potential for significant losses if cash markets turn lower. Weather will be a key factor to watch, with wildfire risk elevated in the central plains following significant losses in Nebraska.
For more detailed information or specific market data, please contact your local extension office or market analyst.