DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
April 24, 2026
MARKET SENTIMENT: BEARISH (3/10)
Cattle futures have fallen for six consecutive sessions with technical selling, fund liquidation, and concerns about demand at record-high beef prices. Cash cattle traded lower in the south at $246, down $2 in the north at $246 live and $386 dressed. Packer margins remain deeply negative (estimated at -$194.55 per head), limiting their purchasing power despite continued need for cattle.
KEY PRICE TRENDS:
• Live cattle futures hit 2½-week lows on Wednesday, with June contracts settling at 243.075 cents/lb
• Feeder cattle reached 3½-week lows at 358.425 cents/lb, marking five straight sessions of decline
• Choice/select spread has inverted, indicating retailers are struggling with abundance of high-quality cuts
• Prime and Certified Angus steaks now priced flat with choice steaks due to oversupply
• Weekly slaughter at 514,000 head, just 2,000 over previous week but 64,000 under last year
TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS:
1. NEW WORLD SCREWWORM THREAT: A case was confirmed in Nuevo León, Mexico, approximately 62 miles from the Texas border. This represents the northernmost active case in Mexico and poses significant risk to U.S. cattle herds despite ongoing sterile fly dispersal efforts.
2. BEEF EXPORT CHALLENGES: February beef exports fell 13% year-over-year to 85,066 metric tons, largely due to continued lack of access to China. However, beef variety meat exports increased 12% in volume and 40% in value, reaching $106 million.
3. QUARTERLY CATTLE ON FEED REPORT: Total on-feed inventory was down 0.5% from 2025 at 11.58 million head. Notably, heifers on feed declined 1.4% year-over-year to 4.32 million head (37.3% of total inventory) - the smallest percentage since 2018, potentially signaling some retention. Beef cow slaughter is running 18% below last year's pace.
OUTLOOK:
Producers should prepare for continued pressure on cattle prices in the near term as the market works through technical selling and demand concerns. The inverted choice/select spread signals retailers are struggling with an abundance of high-quality beef, forcing unusual pricing patterns with premium cuts being discounted. Packers will likely continue reducing slaughter rates to address negative margins.
The screwworm detection near the Texas border requires vigilance from producers in southern states. Export challenges persist, though strong variety meat demand provides some offset. The declining percentage of heifers on feed combined with significantly reduced cow slaughter suggests early signs of herd rebuilding, which could support prices longer term but will be heavily dependent on weather conditions and moisture levels in key production areas.
April 24, 2026
MARKET SENTIMENT: BEARISH (3/10)
Cattle futures have fallen for six consecutive sessions with technical selling, fund liquidation, and concerns about demand at record-high beef prices. Cash cattle traded lower in the south at $246, down $2 in the north at $246 live and $386 dressed. Packer margins remain deeply negative (estimated at -$194.55 per head), limiting their purchasing power despite continued need for cattle.
KEY PRICE TRENDS:
• Live cattle futures hit 2½-week lows on Wednesday, with June contracts settling at 243.075 cents/lb
• Feeder cattle reached 3½-week lows at 358.425 cents/lb, marking five straight sessions of decline
• Choice/select spread has inverted, indicating retailers are struggling with abundance of high-quality cuts
• Prime and Certified Angus steaks now priced flat with choice steaks due to oversupply
• Weekly slaughter at 514,000 head, just 2,000 over previous week but 64,000 under last year
TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS:
1. NEW WORLD SCREWWORM THREAT: A case was confirmed in Nuevo León, Mexico, approximately 62 miles from the Texas border. This represents the northernmost active case in Mexico and poses significant risk to U.S. cattle herds despite ongoing sterile fly dispersal efforts.
2. BEEF EXPORT CHALLENGES: February beef exports fell 13% year-over-year to 85,066 metric tons, largely due to continued lack of access to China. However, beef variety meat exports increased 12% in volume and 40% in value, reaching $106 million.
3. QUARTERLY CATTLE ON FEED REPORT: Total on-feed inventory was down 0.5% from 2025 at 11.58 million head. Notably, heifers on feed declined 1.4% year-over-year to 4.32 million head (37.3% of total inventory) - the smallest percentage since 2018, potentially signaling some retention. Beef cow slaughter is running 18% below last year's pace.
OUTLOOK:
Producers should prepare for continued pressure on cattle prices in the near term as the market works through technical selling and demand concerns. The inverted choice/select spread signals retailers are struggling with an abundance of high-quality beef, forcing unusual pricing patterns with premium cuts being discounted. Packers will likely continue reducing slaughter rates to address negative margins.
The screwworm detection near the Texas border requires vigilance from producers in southern states. Export challenges persist, though strong variety meat demand provides some offset. The declining percentage of heifers on feed combined with significantly reduced cow slaughter suggests early signs of herd rebuilding, which could support prices longer term but will be heavily dependent on weather conditions and moisture levels in key production areas.
For more detailed information or specific market data, please contact your local extension office or market analyst.