DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
April 25, 2026
1. MARKET SENTIMENT: BEARISH (4/10)
Cattle markets are showing increasing signs of weakness as processing margins remain negative, consumer resistance to high beef prices emerges, and packers respond by reducing slaughter volumes. The market has experienced six consecutive sessions of declining futures prices, indicating a significant shift in sentiment despite historically tight cattle supplies.
2. KEY PRICE TRENDS:
- Live cattle traded at $246 in Kansas and Texas, down $2
- Northern cattle traded at $246 live and $386 dressed, both $2 lower
- Futures have declined for six straight sessions with June live cattle touching lowest level since March 31
- Cash feeder cattle showing weakness, with OKC West reporting 10-15¢/lb lower prices on calves
- Choice/select spread fluctuating between premium and discount as retailers face abundance of high-quality cuts
3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS:
a) CONSUMER RESISTANCE EMERGING: After prolonged resilience to high prices, consumers are showing signs of resistance to beef prices. Retailers are experiencing unusual pricing patterns with Prime and Certified Angus steaks priced flat with Choice, and branded/Wagyu offerings disappearing from shelves.
b) PACKERS REDUCING SLAUGHTER: Last week's slaughter was 514,000 head, 64,000 under last year. Packers are responding to negative margins by reducing slaughter volumes, potentially closing plants if conditions persist. The April Cattle on Feed report confirmed tight supplies with on-feed inventory down 0.5% from 2025.
c) DROUGHT INTENSIFYING: Drought conditions worsened by 2.9% since last week and 14.5% since last month, with approximately 63% of the US cattle inventory now in drought areas compared to 37% a year ago. This is hampering herd rebuilding efforts despite some signs of heifer retention.
4. OUTLOOK:
Ranchers should prepare for continued market pressure in the near term as packers work to improve margins by reducing slaughter volumes and lowering bids. The seasonal improvement in beef demand that typically follows Easter may help stabilize prices, but the risk of reaching a consumer price tipping point remains high.
Carcass weights remain heavy at 952 pounds, 41 pounds heavier than last year, which is maintaining beef production despite lower slaughter numbers. Quality grades remain historically high at 89.1%, though expected to decline seasonally through summer.
The April 1 quarterly report showed heifers representing 37.3% of cattle on feed, down slightly from last year's 37.6%, suggesting minimal heifer retention. More significant is the 18% year-over-year reduction in beef cow slaughter through the first 14 weeks of 2026, indicating potential for herd rebuilding despite drought challenges.
Forward contracting activity will likely remain slow as discounted deferred futures contracts make it difficult for producers to lock in profitable prices. The replacement cattle market is showing signs of weakness as breakeven models become increasingly challenging for feedlots, with potential for significant losses on current purchases if cash markets turn sharply lower.
April 25, 2026
1. MARKET SENTIMENT: BEARISH (4/10)
Cattle markets are showing increasing signs of weakness as processing margins remain negative, consumer resistance to high beef prices emerges, and packers respond by reducing slaughter volumes. The market has experienced six consecutive sessions of declining futures prices, indicating a significant shift in sentiment despite historically tight cattle supplies.
2. KEY PRICE TRENDS:
- Live cattle traded at $246 in Kansas and Texas, down $2
- Northern cattle traded at $246 live and $386 dressed, both $2 lower
- Futures have declined for six straight sessions with June live cattle touching lowest level since March 31
- Cash feeder cattle showing weakness, with OKC West reporting 10-15¢/lb lower prices on calves
- Choice/select spread fluctuating between premium and discount as retailers face abundance of high-quality cuts
3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS:
a) CONSUMER RESISTANCE EMERGING: After prolonged resilience to high prices, consumers are showing signs of resistance to beef prices. Retailers are experiencing unusual pricing patterns with Prime and Certified Angus steaks priced flat with Choice, and branded/Wagyu offerings disappearing from shelves.
b) PACKERS REDUCING SLAUGHTER: Last week's slaughter was 514,000 head, 64,000 under last year. Packers are responding to negative margins by reducing slaughter volumes, potentially closing plants if conditions persist. The April Cattle on Feed report confirmed tight supplies with on-feed inventory down 0.5% from 2025.
c) DROUGHT INTENSIFYING: Drought conditions worsened by 2.9% since last week and 14.5% since last month, with approximately 63% of the US cattle inventory now in drought areas compared to 37% a year ago. This is hampering herd rebuilding efforts despite some signs of heifer retention.
4. OUTLOOK:
Ranchers should prepare for continued market pressure in the near term as packers work to improve margins by reducing slaughter volumes and lowering bids. The seasonal improvement in beef demand that typically follows Easter may help stabilize prices, but the risk of reaching a consumer price tipping point remains high.
Carcass weights remain heavy at 952 pounds, 41 pounds heavier than last year, which is maintaining beef production despite lower slaughter numbers. Quality grades remain historically high at 89.1%, though expected to decline seasonally through summer.
The April 1 quarterly report showed heifers representing 37.3% of cattle on feed, down slightly from last year's 37.6%, suggesting minimal heifer retention. More significant is the 18% year-over-year reduction in beef cow slaughter through the first 14 weeks of 2026, indicating potential for herd rebuilding despite drought challenges.
Forward contracting activity will likely remain slow as discounted deferred futures contracts make it difficult for producers to lock in profitable prices. The replacement cattle market is showing signs of weakness as breakeven models become increasingly challenging for feedlots, with potential for significant losses on current purchases if cash markets turn sharply lower.
For more detailed information or specific market data, please contact your local extension office or market analyst.