DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
April 29, 2026
MARKET SENTIMENT: BULLISH - 8/10
The market shows strong bullish momentum with live prices jumping $9 in the south to $255 and dressed prices in the north at $400 ($17 higher). Futures have rallied for three consecutive sessions, with June live cattle gaining 3.725 cents to settle at 248.95 cents per pound. Tight cattle supplies, continued screwworm concerns at the Mexico border, and strengthening boxed beef prices all support the bullish sentiment.
KEY PRICE TRENDS:
• Cash cattle: Southern live prices $254-$255, northern dressed prices $400 (+$17)
• Boxed beef: Choice cutout strengthened to $389.56 (+$2.56), Select at $388.60 (+$2.53)
• Futures: June live cattle at 248.95¢/lb (+3.725¢), May feeders at 368.325¢/lb (+6.55¢)
• Ground beef demand: Hitting highest consumption levels since 2004 at 28.6 lbs per capita
• Packer margins: Improved but still negative at -$156.80 per head (up from last week)
TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS:
1. SCREWWORM BORDER CLOSURE EXTENDED: Agriculture Secretary Rollins canceled her scheduled trip to Douglas, Arizona, signaling the US-Mexico border will remain closed to cattle imports as screwworm cases continue rising. A new case was confirmed just 60 miles from the US border in Nuevo León, Mexico.
2. DROUGHT IMPACT ON REPLACEMENT MARKET: Dry conditions across eastern New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles, Wyoming, Montana, and eastern Colorado are weakening replacement cattle prices. Early removal of cattle from wheat fields is pushing April placements higher, while May placements may show decline.
3. USDA-DOI AGREEMENT TO SUPPORT RANCHERS: A new Memorandum of Understanding between USDA and Department of Interior aims to streamline grazing permits, cut red tape, and support ranchers with public land access. The agreement includes maintaining grazing capacity and creating wildfire coordination resources.
OUTLOOK:
Cattle supplies will remain extremely tight through 2026, supporting prices despite concerns about consumer resistance to record-high beef prices. Expect continued volatility as the market navigates several key factors:
1. The ongoing Mexico border closure will maintain upward pressure on feeder cattle prices, with no imminent reopening expected as screwworm cases increase.
2. Quality grade dynamics are shifting dramatically - Prime now exceeds Select volume, and retailers are reformatting cuts and marketing strategies to adjust to higher quality beef offerings.
3. Watch for potential seasonal demand improvement for middle meats as grilling season approaches, though the historically high price of beef remains a risk factor for demand.
4. Feedlot margins remain severely negative, creating financial stress that could eventually impact the sector if cash prices don't continue rising to offset high replacement costs.
Ranchers should expect continued strong prices but prepare for potential regional impacts from drought conditions, which could affect placement patterns and create localized pressure on replacement values in the coming months.
April 29, 2026
MARKET SENTIMENT: BULLISH - 8/10
The market shows strong bullish momentum with live prices jumping $9 in the south to $255 and dressed prices in the north at $400 ($17 higher). Futures have rallied for three consecutive sessions, with June live cattle gaining 3.725 cents to settle at 248.95 cents per pound. Tight cattle supplies, continued screwworm concerns at the Mexico border, and strengthening boxed beef prices all support the bullish sentiment.
KEY PRICE TRENDS:
• Cash cattle: Southern live prices $254-$255, northern dressed prices $400 (+$17)
• Boxed beef: Choice cutout strengthened to $389.56 (+$2.56), Select at $388.60 (+$2.53)
• Futures: June live cattle at 248.95¢/lb (+3.725¢), May feeders at 368.325¢/lb (+6.55¢)
• Ground beef demand: Hitting highest consumption levels since 2004 at 28.6 lbs per capita
• Packer margins: Improved but still negative at -$156.80 per head (up from last week)
TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS:
1. SCREWWORM BORDER CLOSURE EXTENDED: Agriculture Secretary Rollins canceled her scheduled trip to Douglas, Arizona, signaling the US-Mexico border will remain closed to cattle imports as screwworm cases continue rising. A new case was confirmed just 60 miles from the US border in Nuevo León, Mexico.
2. DROUGHT IMPACT ON REPLACEMENT MARKET: Dry conditions across eastern New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles, Wyoming, Montana, and eastern Colorado are weakening replacement cattle prices. Early removal of cattle from wheat fields is pushing April placements higher, while May placements may show decline.
3. USDA-DOI AGREEMENT TO SUPPORT RANCHERS: A new Memorandum of Understanding between USDA and Department of Interior aims to streamline grazing permits, cut red tape, and support ranchers with public land access. The agreement includes maintaining grazing capacity and creating wildfire coordination resources.
OUTLOOK:
Cattle supplies will remain extremely tight through 2026, supporting prices despite concerns about consumer resistance to record-high beef prices. Expect continued volatility as the market navigates several key factors:
1. The ongoing Mexico border closure will maintain upward pressure on feeder cattle prices, with no imminent reopening expected as screwworm cases increase.
2. Quality grade dynamics are shifting dramatically - Prime now exceeds Select volume, and retailers are reformatting cuts and marketing strategies to adjust to higher quality beef offerings.
3. Watch for potential seasonal demand improvement for middle meats as grilling season approaches, though the historically high price of beef remains a risk factor for demand.
4. Feedlot margins remain severely negative, creating financial stress that could eventually impact the sector if cash prices don't continue rising to offset high replacement costs.
Ranchers should expect continued strong prices but prepare for potential regional impacts from drought conditions, which could affect placement patterns and create localized pressure on replacement values in the coming months.
For more detailed information or specific market data, please contact your local extension office or market analyst.