DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
May 2, 2026
MARKET SENTIMENT: Bullish - 8/10
Cattle markets continue their strong upward momentum with cash prices hitting new highs. Boxed beef prices are firming at week's end, and the spring demand period is beginning to take hold. The combination of tight supplies, strong domestic demand, and ongoing border restrictions due to screwworm concerns has created significant upward price pressure.
KEY PRICE TRENDS:
• Cash cattle trade reached $256 live and $405 dressed, up $1 from previous trading
• Earlier week trades saw gains of $9 higher live and $17 higher dressed at the top end
• Boxed beef ended on a strong note with choice cuts at $389.74/cwt (+$1.69) and select at $389.86/cwt (+$3.61)
• June live cattle futures closed at 254.00 cents/lb, down 1.25 cents in profit-taking after five straight days of gains
• August feeder cattle ended at 373.525 cents/lb, up 1 cent
TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS:
1. SCREWWORM EMERGENCY TREATMENTS APPROVED: The FDA has authorized Elanco's Negasunt Powder for emergency use to prevent and treat New World screwworm infestations in livestock. Simultaneously, the EPA granted a Section 18 Emergency Exemption for Tanidil, another Elanco treatment. These authorizations come as screwworm flies have been detected just 62 miles from the US-Mexico border.
2. SLAUGHTER VOLUMES INCREASING: Weekly cattle slaughter reached 529,000 head, up 15,000 from the previous week but still 26,000 under last year. The larger slaughter has improved plant efficiency but hasn't resolved negative packer margins, currently estimated at -$187.30 per head.
3. GROUND BEEF CONSUMPTION RISING DESPITE PRICES: Ground beef now represents a record percentage of total beef consumption (47.8%) despite wholesale ground beef prices increasing over 57% since 2022. This shift is occurring as total beef production falls, with per capita consumption expected to decline in 2026 despite increased beef imports.
OUTLOOK:
Ranchers should expect continued strong prices through the spring grilling season as beef demand transitions from a historically soft seasonal period to improved demand. The combination of restricted Mexican cattle imports due to screwworm concerns and tight domestic supplies will continue to support prices.
However, the replacement market is showing early signs of weakness, particularly for lightweight cattle, which are most vulnerable to market downturns. The extremely high negative margins at the feedlot level suggest caution, as these could eventually translate to actual losses if the cash market turns lower.
Drought conditions in the central plains and southeast remain concerning, with wildfire risks elevated. This could further impact herd rebuilding efforts and maintain upward pressure on prices through 2026.
May 2, 2026
MARKET SENTIMENT: Bullish - 8/10
Cattle markets continue their strong upward momentum with cash prices hitting new highs. Boxed beef prices are firming at week's end, and the spring demand period is beginning to take hold. The combination of tight supplies, strong domestic demand, and ongoing border restrictions due to screwworm concerns has created significant upward price pressure.
KEY PRICE TRENDS:
• Cash cattle trade reached $256 live and $405 dressed, up $1 from previous trading
• Earlier week trades saw gains of $9 higher live and $17 higher dressed at the top end
• Boxed beef ended on a strong note with choice cuts at $389.74/cwt (+$1.69) and select at $389.86/cwt (+$3.61)
• June live cattle futures closed at 254.00 cents/lb, down 1.25 cents in profit-taking after five straight days of gains
• August feeder cattle ended at 373.525 cents/lb, up 1 cent
TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS:
1. SCREWWORM EMERGENCY TREATMENTS APPROVED: The FDA has authorized Elanco's Negasunt Powder for emergency use to prevent and treat New World screwworm infestations in livestock. Simultaneously, the EPA granted a Section 18 Emergency Exemption for Tanidil, another Elanco treatment. These authorizations come as screwworm flies have been detected just 62 miles from the US-Mexico border.
2. SLAUGHTER VOLUMES INCREASING: Weekly cattle slaughter reached 529,000 head, up 15,000 from the previous week but still 26,000 under last year. The larger slaughter has improved plant efficiency but hasn't resolved negative packer margins, currently estimated at -$187.30 per head.
3. GROUND BEEF CONSUMPTION RISING DESPITE PRICES: Ground beef now represents a record percentage of total beef consumption (47.8%) despite wholesale ground beef prices increasing over 57% since 2022. This shift is occurring as total beef production falls, with per capita consumption expected to decline in 2026 despite increased beef imports.
OUTLOOK:
Ranchers should expect continued strong prices through the spring grilling season as beef demand transitions from a historically soft seasonal period to improved demand. The combination of restricted Mexican cattle imports due to screwworm concerns and tight domestic supplies will continue to support prices.
However, the replacement market is showing early signs of weakness, particularly for lightweight cattle, which are most vulnerable to market downturns. The extremely high negative margins at the feedlot level suggest caution, as these could eventually translate to actual losses if the cash market turns lower.
Drought conditions in the central plains and southeast remain concerning, with wildfire risks elevated. This could further impact herd rebuilding efforts and maintain upward pressure on prices through 2026.
For more detailed information or specific market data, please contact your local extension office or market analyst.