DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
June 3, 2026
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1. MARKET SENTIMENT: CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH — 4/10
Cash fed cattle prices declined $1–3/cwt last week, futures are trading at a significant discount to cash, feeder markets softened $5–20/cwt, and packer margins remain deeply negative. While tight cattle supplies and resilient beef demand provide a structural floor, near-term price pressure is real. The highest prices of this cattle cycle are still ahead — but likely not imminent.
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2. KEY PRICE TRENDS
**Fed Cattle (5-Area Weekly Average — Week of 5/29/26)**
- Live: $256.86/cwt (down from $260.49 the prior week; up $27 vs. year-ago)
- Dressed: $405.19/cwt (down from $410.24; up $37 vs. year-ago)
- Late-week trade Friday developed at $256–257 live / $405–408 dressed
- Bids of $255 were unsuccessful; futures pushed south, widening the cash-futures gap
**Boxed Beef**
- Choice cutout: $392.85/cwt (up slightly week-over-week; up ~$28 vs. year-ago)
- Choice-Select spread: $5.76/cwt (widening from $3.53 prior week, but well below $11.71 year-ago)
- Box prices firmed early this week; middle meats expected to improve ahead of Father's Day and 4th of July
**Feeder Cattle**
- Oklahoma 700–800 lb. steers: $379.47/cwt (down from $384.42; up ~$63 vs. year-ago)
- Oklahoma 500–600 lb. steers: $483.81/cwt (up from $476.99; up ~$106 vs. year-ago)
- OKC feeder/stocker cattle 5–20/cwt lower vs. two weeks ago; calves 10–20/cwt lower
- Feeder & stocker marketings for week ending 5/23/26 were **31.5% below the 3-year average**
**Futures (CME)**
- Monday: August live cattle +1.550¢ to 240.600¢/lb on short-covering; August feeders +3.125¢ to 351.550¢/lb
- Tuesday: August live cattle retreated 0.950¢ to 239.650¢/lb; August feeders fell 3.125¢ to 348.425¢/lb
- Futures remain at a substantial discount to cash, creating a widening and concerning gap
**Feed Grains**
- Corn (Omaha): $4.43/bu — soft and declining; CBOT corn dropped further to ~$4.41/bu Tuesday
- 93% of corn crop planted (ahead of 5-year average of 92%); 67% rated good-to-excellent
- Corn basis elevated: Guymon, OK at +$1.00 over July contract due to transportation cost pressures
- Bearish corn fundamentals (falling crude oil → lower ethanol demand + favorable crop weather)
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3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS
**#1 — New World Screwworm Case Found 31 Miles from US Border**
A new screwworm case was confirmed just 31 miles from the US-Mexico border — the closest yet in the ongoing outbreak. US cattle imports from Mexico remain suspended. While this provided a brief boost to feeder futures Monday, Tuesday's retreat showed the market is discounting the near-term supply benefit against broader demand concerns. Ranchers should monitor closely: any northward spread could have major implications for Southern Plains cow-calf operations.
**#2 — Herd Expansion Still 6–10 Months Away; Record-Low Cow Culling**
OSU's Derrell Peel confirms the female slaughter percentage currently sits at 48.8% — still above the 47% expansion threshold. Beef cow culling is tracking toward a record-low 7.1% in 2026. History suggests it could take another 6–10 months before the female slaughter percentage drops below the expansion threshold, after which expansion may persist 14–49 months. Bottom line: **cattle supplies will continue to tighten, and the highest prices of this cycle are still ahead** — but the market must absorb near-term margin pressure first.
**#3 — Tariff Developments: Brazil Carve-Outs and New Forced-Labor Duties**
Two significant trade actions emerged this week:
- The Trump administration proposed a **25% tariff on many Brazilian goods** (Section 301), but **beef is explicitly exempted** from both this action and the separate forced-labor tariff proposal covering 60 nations. This protects current beef import flows from Brazil, which are critical to the US grinding market.
- China simultaneously **lifted foot-and-mouth restrictions on all of Brazil**, opening broader Brazilian beef and pork access to the world's largest beef importer. This could redirect some Brazilian beef toward China rather than the US — a potential tightening of US import supply for lean grinding trim, which would support domestic prices for the cow/grind complex.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
4. OUTLOOK: WHAT RANCHERS SHOULD EXPECT
**Short-Term (Next 2–4 Weeks):**
- Cash fed cattle prices face continued pressure as futures remain at a discount and packers battle deeply negative margins. Expect slaughter volumes to stay constrained — last week's holiday-impacted kill of 448,000 head was 40,000 under year-ago. Post-Memorial Day beef counter clearance will be the key signal for whether box prices can recover.
- Feeder markets will remain volatile. Extreme futures swings are dampening buyer confidence at sale barns despite green futures days. High heat, humidity, and wheat harvest activity further limited OKC demand this week.
- The grid is changing: record-heavy carcass weights (953 lbs, up 38 lbs year-over-year) are flooding choice and prime supplies, narrowing quality grade premiums. YG 4&5 discounts are increasing. Producers on grids should review their marketing expectations accordingly.
**Medium-Term (Summer 2026):**
- Seasonal beef demand should improve through Father's Day and 4th of July, supporting middle meat values. June has historically been a strong beef sales month.
- Pasture conditions remain mixed: 30% of pasture/range rated good-to-excellent vs. 42% a year ago. Drought persists in South/West Texas and the Panhandle. Placement decisions this summer will be weather-dependent.
- Beef production is seasonally increasing but remains below year-ago levels. Prime grading at 16.99% vs. Select at 8.23% is compressing the Prime-Choice spread ($15.88 in May 2026 vs. $20.87 in May 2025).
- Beef demand remains structurally strong: retail beef holds 56% of all meat dollar sales, and consumers continue voting with their wallets despite high prices. Demand destruction has not materialized — yet.
**Strategic Watch Items:**
- Monitor the screwworm situation at the southern border closely
- Track post-Memorial Day beef feature activity and retailer willingness to promote beef vs. competing proteins
- China's opening to Brazilian beef could reduce lean trim imports to the US — watch import data for tightening grinding supply
- Corn basis elevation (+$1.00 in Guymon) may offset some feed cost relief from falling futures prices
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
*Sources: LMIC, Texas A&M AgriLife Extension, OSU Extension, CME/
June 3, 2026
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
1. MARKET SENTIMENT: CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH — 4/10
Cash fed cattle prices declined $1–3/cwt last week, futures are trading at a significant discount to cash, feeder markets softened $5–20/cwt, and packer margins remain deeply negative. While tight cattle supplies and resilient beef demand provide a structural floor, near-term price pressure is real. The highest prices of this cattle cycle are still ahead — but likely not imminent.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
2. KEY PRICE TRENDS
**Fed Cattle (5-Area Weekly Average — Week of 5/29/26)**
- Live: $256.86/cwt (down from $260.49 the prior week; up $27 vs. year-ago)
- Dressed: $405.19/cwt (down from $410.24; up $37 vs. year-ago)
- Late-week trade Friday developed at $256–257 live / $405–408 dressed
- Bids of $255 were unsuccessful; futures pushed south, widening the cash-futures gap
**Boxed Beef**
- Choice cutout: $392.85/cwt (up slightly week-over-week; up ~$28 vs. year-ago)
- Choice-Select spread: $5.76/cwt (widening from $3.53 prior week, but well below $11.71 year-ago)
- Box prices firmed early this week; middle meats expected to improve ahead of Father's Day and 4th of July
**Feeder Cattle**
- Oklahoma 700–800 lb. steers: $379.47/cwt (down from $384.42; up ~$63 vs. year-ago)
- Oklahoma 500–600 lb. steers: $483.81/cwt (up from $476.99; up ~$106 vs. year-ago)
- OKC feeder/stocker cattle 5–20/cwt lower vs. two weeks ago; calves 10–20/cwt lower
- Feeder & stocker marketings for week ending 5/23/26 were **31.5% below the 3-year average**
**Futures (CME)**
- Monday: August live cattle +1.550¢ to 240.600¢/lb on short-covering; August feeders +3.125¢ to 351.550¢/lb
- Tuesday: August live cattle retreated 0.950¢ to 239.650¢/lb; August feeders fell 3.125¢ to 348.425¢/lb
- Futures remain at a substantial discount to cash, creating a widening and concerning gap
**Feed Grains**
- Corn (Omaha): $4.43/bu — soft and declining; CBOT corn dropped further to ~$4.41/bu Tuesday
- 93% of corn crop planted (ahead of 5-year average of 92%); 67% rated good-to-excellent
- Corn basis elevated: Guymon, OK at +$1.00 over July contract due to transportation cost pressures
- Bearish corn fundamentals (falling crude oil → lower ethanol demand + favorable crop weather)
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS
**#1 — New World Screwworm Case Found 31 Miles from US Border**
A new screwworm case was confirmed just 31 miles from the US-Mexico border — the closest yet in the ongoing outbreak. US cattle imports from Mexico remain suspended. While this provided a brief boost to feeder futures Monday, Tuesday's retreat showed the market is discounting the near-term supply benefit against broader demand concerns. Ranchers should monitor closely: any northward spread could have major implications for Southern Plains cow-calf operations.
**#2 — Herd Expansion Still 6–10 Months Away; Record-Low Cow Culling**
OSU's Derrell Peel confirms the female slaughter percentage currently sits at 48.8% — still above the 47% expansion threshold. Beef cow culling is tracking toward a record-low 7.1% in 2026. History suggests it could take another 6–10 months before the female slaughter percentage drops below the expansion threshold, after which expansion may persist 14–49 months. Bottom line: **cattle supplies will continue to tighten, and the highest prices of this cycle are still ahead** — but the market must absorb near-term margin pressure first.
**#3 — Tariff Developments: Brazil Carve-Outs and New Forced-Labor Duties**
Two significant trade actions emerged this week:
- The Trump administration proposed a **25% tariff on many Brazilian goods** (Section 301), but **beef is explicitly exempted** from both this action and the separate forced-labor tariff proposal covering 60 nations. This protects current beef import flows from Brazil, which are critical to the US grinding market.
- China simultaneously **lifted foot-and-mouth restrictions on all of Brazil**, opening broader Brazilian beef and pork access to the world's largest beef importer. This could redirect some Brazilian beef toward China rather than the US — a potential tightening of US import supply for lean grinding trim, which would support domestic prices for the cow/grind complex.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
4. OUTLOOK: WHAT RANCHERS SHOULD EXPECT
**Short-Term (Next 2–4 Weeks):**
- Cash fed cattle prices face continued pressure as futures remain at a discount and packers battle deeply negative margins. Expect slaughter volumes to stay constrained — last week's holiday-impacted kill of 448,000 head was 40,000 under year-ago. Post-Memorial Day beef counter clearance will be the key signal for whether box prices can recover.
- Feeder markets will remain volatile. Extreme futures swings are dampening buyer confidence at sale barns despite green futures days. High heat, humidity, and wheat harvest activity further limited OKC demand this week.
- The grid is changing: record-heavy carcass weights (953 lbs, up 38 lbs year-over-year) are flooding choice and prime supplies, narrowing quality grade premiums. YG 4&5 discounts are increasing. Producers on grids should review their marketing expectations accordingly.
**Medium-Term (Summer 2026):**
- Seasonal beef demand should improve through Father's Day and 4th of July, supporting middle meat values. June has historically been a strong beef sales month.
- Pasture conditions remain mixed: 30% of pasture/range rated good-to-excellent vs. 42% a year ago. Drought persists in South/West Texas and the Panhandle. Placement decisions this summer will be weather-dependent.
- Beef production is seasonally increasing but remains below year-ago levels. Prime grading at 16.99% vs. Select at 8.23% is compressing the Prime-Choice spread ($15.88 in May 2026 vs. $20.87 in May 2025).
- Beef demand remains structurally strong: retail beef holds 56% of all meat dollar sales, and consumers continue voting with their wallets despite high prices. Demand destruction has not materialized — yet.
**Strategic Watch Items:**
- Monitor the screwworm situation at the southern border closely
- Track post-Memorial Day beef feature activity and retailer willingness to promote beef vs. competing proteins
- China's opening to Brazilian beef could reduce lean trim imports to the US — watch import data for tightening grinding supply
- Corn basis elevation (+$1.00 in Guymon) may offset some feed cost relief from falling futures prices
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
*Sources: LMIC, Texas A&M AgriLife Extension, OSU Extension, CME/
For more detailed information or specific market data, please contact your local extension office or market analyst.