DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
June 5, 2026
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1. MARKET SENTIMENT: CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH — 4/10
Markets are under pressure from multiple fronts: confirmed screwworm detection in Texas, volatile futures, weakening feeder cattle prices, and sustained packer margin losses. While fed cattle supplies remain tight and provide some floor support, the near-term outlook is dominated by uncertainty and downward price pressure across the supply chain.
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2. KEY PRICE TRENDS
Fed Cattle (Cash):
- Texas live trade opened at $255/cwt (down $2 from last week) before stabilizing at $256 across most regions, with some grid base prices negotiated at $257
- Dressed sales in the North: $405/cwt
- Carcass weights at 955 lbs — up 2 lbs week-over-week and a notable 40 lbs heavier than last year
- Quality grade at 88.6% Choice or better, up 0.5% week-over-week
Futures (CME):
- August live cattle: 237.85¢/lb — down 1.8¢ on Wednesday following screwworm news
- August feeders: 342.625¢/lb — down 5.80¢ (–1.66%) Wednesday; down from 348.425¢ Tuesday
- Futures showed some recovery Thursday as short-sellers exited positions tied to screwworm uncertainty
Feeder/Stocker Cash Markets:
- Oklahoma City: Feeder steers/heifers $5–$20/cwt lower vs. two weeks ago; calves $10–$20 lower
- OKC West: Steer/heifer calves $10–$20 lower week-over-week
- National feeder/stocker marketings for week ending May 23 were 31.5% below the 3-year average — a significant supply contraction signal
Corn/Feed Costs:
- Corn prices soft, but basis levels rising due to transportation cost increases
- Guymon, OK corn basis: +$1.00 over July futures — elevated input costs persist for feeders
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS
🪲 #1 — CONFIRMED: New World Screwworm Detected in Texas
USDA's APHIS officially confirmed a New World Screwworm (NWS) case in a 3-week-old calf in Zavala County, Texas — the first confirmed U.S. case since 1966. Larvae were found in the calf's umbilical area. USDA Secretary Rollins clarified that earlier social media reports of a case "one mile from the border" were inaccurate; the nearest prior Mexican case was 25 miles away in Coahuila. Key implications:
- No immediate threat to beef safety or food supply
- Mexican cattle import suspension likely to remain in place, tightening feeder supplies further
- Calls intensifying for mandatory national livestock ID to enable targeted containment zones
- USDA has sterilized fly release plants under construction in Texas as a mitigation strategy
- Markets initially sold off sharply on the news; futures partially recovered as short-covering emerged
🌍 #2 — New U.S. Tariffs Proposed on 60 Nations (Beef Exempted — For Now)
The Trump administration's USTR proposed 10%–12.5% additional tariffs on imports from 60 countries under a Section 301 forced labor investigation, targeting Canada, Mexico, the EU, and others. Beef is explicitly exempted from these proposed duties, along with energy, pharmaceuticals, and certain agricultural products. However:
- Broader trade tensions continue to weigh on consumer sentiment and spending power
- Rising gas prices + tariff uncertainty = risk of demand erosion for premium beef cuts
- A separate 25% duty on Brazilian goods (digital trade practices) adds complexity to import beef dynamics
🇧🇷 #3 — China Lifts FMD Restrictions on All of Brazil
China's customs authority has recognized all of Brazil as foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) free, lifting longstanding regional bans. Brazil — the world's largest beef exporter — sends over 50% of its beef exports to China. This development:
- Opens the door to expanded Brazilian beef and pork exports (including bone-in cuts and offal) to China
- Could increase competition for U.S. beef in Asian markets
- China imported nearly $3 billion in Brazilian beef in Q1 2026 alone — volumes likely to grow
- Partially offsets any supply tightening from U.S. screwworm-related import restrictions
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
4. OUTLOOK: WHAT RANCHERS SHOULD EXPECT
Short-Term (2–4 Weeks):
- Fed cattle prices likely to hold in the $255–$258 range with tight supplies providing a floor, but packer margin losses will cap upside; weekly slaughter at 448,000 head is already 40,000 under last year
- Feeder and stocker markets face continued downward pressure — volatile futures are discouraging buyers, and the screwworm confirmation adds a new layer of uncertainty to cattle movements in Texas
- Expect increased USDA scrutiny and movement restrictions in South Texas; producers in affected areas should prepare for additional monitoring requirements and potential delays in cattle sales
Medium-Term (Summer):
- Pasture conditions are modestly improved (30% Good-to-Excellent vs. 29% last week, but well below 42% last year) — summer grazing programs are viable in many areas but remain below historical norms
- Corn crop at 67% Good-to-Excellent (near 5-year average of 69%) suggests feed costs won't spike dramatically, but elevated basis levels (+$1.00 in OK) will keep feeding margins negative
- Quality grade should begin a slow seasonal decline into summer, but record-heavy carcasses (955 lbs, +40 lbs YOY) will keep grading historically elevated
- Father's Day and 4th of July cookout demand should support middle meats and Choice box prices — watch for retail feature activity as a demand signal
Strategic Considerations:
- Mandatory livestock ID legislation momentum is building — producers should monitor policy developments that could affect compliance costs and movement protocols
- Brazil's expanded China access and rising U.S. beef imports (lean trim for grinding) suggest import competition will intensify through 2026
- Cattle owners retain leverage in a tight supply environment, but that leverage diminishes as calf supplies begin rebuilding in 2027 — locking in favorable forward contracts now may be prudent where basis allows
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
*Sources: USDA APHIS, CME Group, Oklahoma City Livestock Market, Reuters, USDA Drought Monitor, USDA NASS*
June 5, 2026
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
1. MARKET SENTIMENT: CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH — 4/10
Markets are under pressure from multiple fronts: confirmed screwworm detection in Texas, volatile futures, weakening feeder cattle prices, and sustained packer margin losses. While fed cattle supplies remain tight and provide some floor support, the near-term outlook is dominated by uncertainty and downward price pressure across the supply chain.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
2. KEY PRICE TRENDS
Fed Cattle (Cash):
- Texas live trade opened at $255/cwt (down $2 from last week) before stabilizing at $256 across most regions, with some grid base prices negotiated at $257
- Dressed sales in the North: $405/cwt
- Carcass weights at 955 lbs — up 2 lbs week-over-week and a notable 40 lbs heavier than last year
- Quality grade at 88.6% Choice or better, up 0.5% week-over-week
Futures (CME):
- August live cattle: 237.85¢/lb — down 1.8¢ on Wednesday following screwworm news
- August feeders: 342.625¢/lb — down 5.80¢ (–1.66%) Wednesday; down from 348.425¢ Tuesday
- Futures showed some recovery Thursday as short-sellers exited positions tied to screwworm uncertainty
Feeder/Stocker Cash Markets:
- Oklahoma City: Feeder steers/heifers $5–$20/cwt lower vs. two weeks ago; calves $10–$20 lower
- OKC West: Steer/heifer calves $10–$20 lower week-over-week
- National feeder/stocker marketings for week ending May 23 were 31.5% below the 3-year average — a significant supply contraction signal
Corn/Feed Costs:
- Corn prices soft, but basis levels rising due to transportation cost increases
- Guymon, OK corn basis: +$1.00 over July futures — elevated input costs persist for feeders
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS
🪲 #1 — CONFIRMED: New World Screwworm Detected in Texas
USDA's APHIS officially confirmed a New World Screwworm (NWS) case in a 3-week-old calf in Zavala County, Texas — the first confirmed U.S. case since 1966. Larvae were found in the calf's umbilical area. USDA Secretary Rollins clarified that earlier social media reports of a case "one mile from the border" were inaccurate; the nearest prior Mexican case was 25 miles away in Coahuila. Key implications:
- No immediate threat to beef safety or food supply
- Mexican cattle import suspension likely to remain in place, tightening feeder supplies further
- Calls intensifying for mandatory national livestock ID to enable targeted containment zones
- USDA has sterilized fly release plants under construction in Texas as a mitigation strategy
- Markets initially sold off sharply on the news; futures partially recovered as short-covering emerged
🌍 #2 — New U.S. Tariffs Proposed on 60 Nations (Beef Exempted — For Now)
The Trump administration's USTR proposed 10%–12.5% additional tariffs on imports from 60 countries under a Section 301 forced labor investigation, targeting Canada, Mexico, the EU, and others. Beef is explicitly exempted from these proposed duties, along with energy, pharmaceuticals, and certain agricultural products. However:
- Broader trade tensions continue to weigh on consumer sentiment and spending power
- Rising gas prices + tariff uncertainty = risk of demand erosion for premium beef cuts
- A separate 25% duty on Brazilian goods (digital trade practices) adds complexity to import beef dynamics
🇧🇷 #3 — China Lifts FMD Restrictions on All of Brazil
China's customs authority has recognized all of Brazil as foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) free, lifting longstanding regional bans. Brazil — the world's largest beef exporter — sends over 50% of its beef exports to China. This development:
- Opens the door to expanded Brazilian beef and pork exports (including bone-in cuts and offal) to China
- Could increase competition for U.S. beef in Asian markets
- China imported nearly $3 billion in Brazilian beef in Q1 2026 alone — volumes likely to grow
- Partially offsets any supply tightening from U.S. screwworm-related import restrictions
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
4. OUTLOOK: WHAT RANCHERS SHOULD EXPECT
Short-Term (2–4 Weeks):
- Fed cattle prices likely to hold in the $255–$258 range with tight supplies providing a floor, but packer margin losses will cap upside; weekly slaughter at 448,000 head is already 40,000 under last year
- Feeder and stocker markets face continued downward pressure — volatile futures are discouraging buyers, and the screwworm confirmation adds a new layer of uncertainty to cattle movements in Texas
- Expect increased USDA scrutiny and movement restrictions in South Texas; producers in affected areas should prepare for additional monitoring requirements and potential delays in cattle sales
Medium-Term (Summer):
- Pasture conditions are modestly improved (30% Good-to-Excellent vs. 29% last week, but well below 42% last year) — summer grazing programs are viable in many areas but remain below historical norms
- Corn crop at 67% Good-to-Excellent (near 5-year average of 69%) suggests feed costs won't spike dramatically, but elevated basis levels (+$1.00 in OK) will keep feeding margins negative
- Quality grade should begin a slow seasonal decline into summer, but record-heavy carcasses (955 lbs, +40 lbs YOY) will keep grading historically elevated
- Father's Day and 4th of July cookout demand should support middle meats and Choice box prices — watch for retail feature activity as a demand signal
Strategic Considerations:
- Mandatory livestock ID legislation momentum is building — producers should monitor policy developments that could affect compliance costs and movement protocols
- Brazil's expanded China access and rising U.S. beef imports (lean trim for grinding) suggest import competition will intensify through 2026
- Cattle owners retain leverage in a tight supply environment, but that leverage diminishes as calf supplies begin rebuilding in 2027 — locking in favorable forward contracts now may be prudent where basis allows
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
*Sources: USDA APHIS, CME Group, Oklahoma City Livestock Market, Reuters, USDA Drought Monitor, USDA NASS*
For more detailed information or specific market data, please contact your local extension office or market analyst.