DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
June 9, 2026
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1. MARKET SENTIMENT: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH — 6.5/10
The cattle market remains fundamentally bullish on tight domestic supplies and strong beef demand, but the New World Screwworm (NWS) outbreak in Texas has introduced near-term uncertainty and volatility. Futures initially sold off sharply on the NWS news before recovering, reflecting the market's attempt to separate psychological fear from supply-demand fundamentals. Expert analysis suggests the outbreak is unlikely to cause major cattle supply or beef production disruptions at this stage, keeping the underlying bull case intact. However, widening quarantine zones, interstate movement complications, and the lack of a national animal ID system add meaningful operational risk.
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2. KEY PRICE TRENDS
Fed Cattle (Live): 5-Area Fed Steer averaged $256.53/cwt for the week of June 5 — essentially flat week-over-week ($256.86 prior week) but $20/cwt above year-ago levels (+8.4%). Kansas sellers who held out earned $258 late in the week vs. early bids at $255-$256.
Fed Cattle (Dressed): Northern dressed sales ranged $405–$410/cwt, with most at $405–$407. Prices ended the week steady to $1 higher.
Feeder Cattle: Mixed signals across regions and weights. Southern Plains 700-800 lb. feeders averaged ~$384/cwt in May — roughly $90/cwt above year-ago levels. Nebraska 7-market 700-800 lb. feeders came in at $408.02/cwt vs. $416.64 the prior week. Oklahoma 8-market was $368.93 vs. $379.47 the prior week, reflecting some softening.
Boxed Beef (Choice): $393.62/cwt — up slightly from $392.85 the prior week and $28/cwt above year-ago levels. Choice-Select spread widened significantly to $10.01/cwt from $5.76 the prior week, signaling strong demand for quality.
CME Futures: August feeder cattle settled at 353.900 cents/lb, reaching a two-week high before pulling back on profit-taking. August live cattle settled at 241.650 cents/lb. Futures hit resistance at the 100-day moving average.
Corn: Sharply lower — Omaha cash corn at $4.15/bu (down from $4.43 prior week), falling for a sixth consecutive session to its lowest level since October. This is a meaningful tailwind for feeder cattle values.
Carcass Weights: At 955 lbs — 2 lbs above the prior week and a striking 40 lbs heavier than last year. Quality grade at 88.6% — up 0.5% week-over-week, historically very high.
Weekly Slaughter: 533,000 head — 85,000 above the holiday-shortened prior week but 48,000 below year-ago levels, reflecting ongoing tight supplies.
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3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS
🚨 #1 — New World Screwworm Expands to Four Confirmed U.S. Cases
What began as a single confirmed NWS case in Zavala County, Texas (June 3) has grown to four confirmed cases as of June 8:
- Case 1 & 2: Young calves ~5.6 miles apart in Zavala County (South Texas)
- Case 3: A calf in La Salle County (South Texas)
- Case 4: A dog in Andrews County (West Texas) — ~350 miles from the original cluster, raising alarm about geographic spread
USDA's APHIS is establishing 20-kilometer infested zones around each detection site with quarantines and movement controls. Texas Governor Greg Abbott declared a state of disaster and is pushing to accelerate completion of a sterile fly production facility (currently scheduled for November 2027) before the next summer season. USDA has deployed 28+ workers across Zavala County releasing sterile flies, setting traps, and conducting ranch inspections.
Key complication: Without a national animal ID system, health officials cannot precisely define restricted areas, forcing broader — and more disruptive — movement controls across Texas. Producers in affected areas are reportedly reluctant to report cases for fear of quarantine, which could mask the true scope of the outbreak.
Market impact assessment (per OSU's Dr. Derrell Peel): NWS is primarily a localized management and cost issue — NOT a broad cattle supply, beef production, or food safety issue. No major market impacts are anticipated. The futures market's initial sharp sell-off followed by recovery reflects this reassessment.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🇨🇦 #2 — Canada Imposes Temporary Import Restrictions on Texas Livestock
Canada's Food Inspection Agency announced temporary import restrictions on livestock from Texas or that transited through Texas in the last 21 days. Industry experts characterize this as largely a symbolic political move — very few Texas cattle are typically involved in Canada-U.S. trade, and Canada's climate is well outside the range where NWS can survive. However, the action highlights the international trade ripple effects of the outbreak and raises questions about whether other trade partners may follow.
The U.S.-Mexico border remains closed to live cattle imports (since July 2025), and it is now uncertain whether the confirmed U.S. cases will change the political calculus around reopening. Feedlots in Texas, California, and Arizona — which relied heavily on Mexican feeder cattle — remain at 84–93% of their five-year average on-feed inventories. Meanwhile, Mexican beef exports to the U.S. have soared in the first four months of 2026 as Mexican ranchers build out their own feedlot and processing infrastructure — a structural shift that concerns U.S. feedlot operators.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
📦 #3 — Beef Demand Enters Seasonally Favorable Window Despite Record Prices
Beef demand is transitioning into the historically strong Father's Day and 4th of July consumption period. Box prices stabilized last week with expectations for improvement in middle meats and steak cuts. However, two headwinds remain:
- Retailer reluctance to feature beef at a loss is slowing supermarket movement
- All-fresh retail beef prices are approaching $10/lb, testing consumer price elasticity
Year-to-date domestic beef production is tracking more than 5% below year-ago levels — a deficit that imports (primarily lean beef from Brazil and elsewhere) are partially filling through blending with domestic fat trim. Prime cuts are gaining grocery shelf space but require discounting to move. Heavy carcasses (955 lbs avg) are also changing processing specs — some processors are now trimming ribeye cuts to reduce steak size.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
4. OUTLOOK: WHAT RANCHERS SHOULD EXPECT
Near-Term (2–4 Weeks):
- NWS monitoring is now a daily operational reality for Texas producers and those in adjacent states. Expect widening quarantine zones, active checkpoints on major roads, and continued interstate movement friction. Producers should familiarize themselves with USDA's NWS Dashboard and APHIS reporting protocols.
- Futures volatility will persist around NWS news flow. Watch for updates on geographic spread — particularly whether the Andrews County (West Texas) dog case indicates a separate introduction point. Additional confirmed cases will pressure futures; containment news will support them.
- Cash fed cattle prices should hold firm with tight supplies and seasonal demand support. Kansas-style patience (holding cattle for higher bids) continues to be rewarded.
- Feeder cattle prices face mixed pressure — lower corn prices are a positive, but NWS uncertainty and softer replacement market sentiment are headwinds. Stocker and feeder prices have begun moving lower in some regions.
Intermediate-Term (Summer 2026):
- The sterile fly program is the critical eradication tool. Capacity constraints at the existing facility and the 2027 timeline for the new Texas plant mean the summer of 2026 will be the most vulnerable period for spread. Producers should not assume rapid containment.
- Fed cattle supplies remain tight and cattle owners retain leverage heading into summer. Placement activity is slowing year-over-year and will remain at the mercy of weather and pasture conditions.
- The
June 9, 2026
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
1. MARKET SENTIMENT: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH — 6.5/10
The cattle market remains fundamentally bullish on tight domestic supplies and strong beef demand, but the New World Screwworm (NWS) outbreak in Texas has introduced near-term uncertainty and volatility. Futures initially sold off sharply on the NWS news before recovering, reflecting the market's attempt to separate psychological fear from supply-demand fundamentals. Expert analysis suggests the outbreak is unlikely to cause major cattle supply or beef production disruptions at this stage, keeping the underlying bull case intact. However, widening quarantine zones, interstate movement complications, and the lack of a national animal ID system add meaningful operational risk.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
2. KEY PRICE TRENDS
Fed Cattle (Live): 5-Area Fed Steer averaged $256.53/cwt for the week of June 5 — essentially flat week-over-week ($256.86 prior week) but $20/cwt above year-ago levels (+8.4%). Kansas sellers who held out earned $258 late in the week vs. early bids at $255-$256.
Fed Cattle (Dressed): Northern dressed sales ranged $405–$410/cwt, with most at $405–$407. Prices ended the week steady to $1 higher.
Feeder Cattle: Mixed signals across regions and weights. Southern Plains 700-800 lb. feeders averaged ~$384/cwt in May — roughly $90/cwt above year-ago levels. Nebraska 7-market 700-800 lb. feeders came in at $408.02/cwt vs. $416.64 the prior week. Oklahoma 8-market was $368.93 vs. $379.47 the prior week, reflecting some softening.
Boxed Beef (Choice): $393.62/cwt — up slightly from $392.85 the prior week and $28/cwt above year-ago levels. Choice-Select spread widened significantly to $10.01/cwt from $5.76 the prior week, signaling strong demand for quality.
CME Futures: August feeder cattle settled at 353.900 cents/lb, reaching a two-week high before pulling back on profit-taking. August live cattle settled at 241.650 cents/lb. Futures hit resistance at the 100-day moving average.
Corn: Sharply lower — Omaha cash corn at $4.15/bu (down from $4.43 prior week), falling for a sixth consecutive session to its lowest level since October. This is a meaningful tailwind for feeder cattle values.
Carcass Weights: At 955 lbs — 2 lbs above the prior week and a striking 40 lbs heavier than last year. Quality grade at 88.6% — up 0.5% week-over-week, historically very high.
Weekly Slaughter: 533,000 head — 85,000 above the holiday-shortened prior week but 48,000 below year-ago levels, reflecting ongoing tight supplies.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS
🚨 #1 — New World Screwworm Expands to Four Confirmed U.S. Cases
What began as a single confirmed NWS case in Zavala County, Texas (June 3) has grown to four confirmed cases as of June 8:
- Case 1 & 2: Young calves ~5.6 miles apart in Zavala County (South Texas)
- Case 3: A calf in La Salle County (South Texas)
- Case 4: A dog in Andrews County (West Texas) — ~350 miles from the original cluster, raising alarm about geographic spread
USDA's APHIS is establishing 20-kilometer infested zones around each detection site with quarantines and movement controls. Texas Governor Greg Abbott declared a state of disaster and is pushing to accelerate completion of a sterile fly production facility (currently scheduled for November 2027) before the next summer season. USDA has deployed 28+ workers across Zavala County releasing sterile flies, setting traps, and conducting ranch inspections.
Key complication: Without a national animal ID system, health officials cannot precisely define restricted areas, forcing broader — and more disruptive — movement controls across Texas. Producers in affected areas are reportedly reluctant to report cases for fear of quarantine, which could mask the true scope of the outbreak.
Market impact assessment (per OSU's Dr. Derrell Peel): NWS is primarily a localized management and cost issue — NOT a broad cattle supply, beef production, or food safety issue. No major market impacts are anticipated. The futures market's initial sharp sell-off followed by recovery reflects this reassessment.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🇨🇦 #2 — Canada Imposes Temporary Import Restrictions on Texas Livestock
Canada's Food Inspection Agency announced temporary import restrictions on livestock from Texas or that transited through Texas in the last 21 days. Industry experts characterize this as largely a symbolic political move — very few Texas cattle are typically involved in Canada-U.S. trade, and Canada's climate is well outside the range where NWS can survive. However, the action highlights the international trade ripple effects of the outbreak and raises questions about whether other trade partners may follow.
The U.S.-Mexico border remains closed to live cattle imports (since July 2025), and it is now uncertain whether the confirmed U.S. cases will change the political calculus around reopening. Feedlots in Texas, California, and Arizona — which relied heavily on Mexican feeder cattle — remain at 84–93% of their five-year average on-feed inventories. Meanwhile, Mexican beef exports to the U.S. have soared in the first four months of 2026 as Mexican ranchers build out their own feedlot and processing infrastructure — a structural shift that concerns U.S. feedlot operators.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
📦 #3 — Beef Demand Enters Seasonally Favorable Window Despite Record Prices
Beef demand is transitioning into the historically strong Father's Day and 4th of July consumption period. Box prices stabilized last week with expectations for improvement in middle meats and steak cuts. However, two headwinds remain:
- Retailer reluctance to feature beef at a loss is slowing supermarket movement
- All-fresh retail beef prices are approaching $10/lb, testing consumer price elasticity
Year-to-date domestic beef production is tracking more than 5% below year-ago levels — a deficit that imports (primarily lean beef from Brazil and elsewhere) are partially filling through blending with domestic fat trim. Prime cuts are gaining grocery shelf space but require discounting to move. Heavy carcasses (955 lbs avg) are also changing processing specs — some processors are now trimming ribeye cuts to reduce steak size.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
4. OUTLOOK: WHAT RANCHERS SHOULD EXPECT
Near-Term (2–4 Weeks):
- NWS monitoring is now a daily operational reality for Texas producers and those in adjacent states. Expect widening quarantine zones, active checkpoints on major roads, and continued interstate movement friction. Producers should familiarize themselves with USDA's NWS Dashboard and APHIS reporting protocols.
- Futures volatility will persist around NWS news flow. Watch for updates on geographic spread — particularly whether the Andrews County (West Texas) dog case indicates a separate introduction point. Additional confirmed cases will pressure futures; containment news will support them.
- Cash fed cattle prices should hold firm with tight supplies and seasonal demand support. Kansas-style patience (holding cattle for higher bids) continues to be rewarded.
- Feeder cattle prices face mixed pressure — lower corn prices are a positive, but NWS uncertainty and softer replacement market sentiment are headwinds. Stocker and feeder prices have begun moving lower in some regions.
Intermediate-Term (Summer 2026):
- The sterile fly program is the critical eradication tool. Capacity constraints at the existing facility and the 2027 timeline for the new Texas plant mean the summer of 2026 will be the most vulnerable period for spread. Producers should not assume rapid containment.
- Fed cattle supplies remain tight and cattle owners retain leverage heading into summer. Placement activity is slowing year-over-year and will remain at the mercy of weather and pasture conditions.
- The
For more detailed information or specific market data, please contact your local extension office or market analyst.