DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
June 11, 2026
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1. MARKET SENTIMENT: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH — Score: 6.5/10
Fed cattle supplies remain tight, cattle owners retain pricing leverage, and futures are trading at a meaningful discount to cash — a setup that historically resolves in favor of higher futures prices. However, headwinds from Mexico's live animal import ban, retailer hesitancy to feature beef at a loss, and creeping pessimism in replacement markets temper the outlook. The screwworm situation is transitioning from a headline shock to a managed operational challenge, which removes a layer of uncertainty from the market.
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2. KEY PRICE TRENDS
Fed Cattle Cash: Live trades this week in the north reported at $256/cwt live and $406/cwt dressed — roughly steady with last week. Cash market-ready cattle traded in the $256–$258/cwt range last week.
Futures Discount to Cash: Front-month June live cattle futures settled at 248.025 cents/lb on Tuesday, with August at 239.700 cents/lb. Both contracts are trading well below the cash equivalent of $250+/cwt. Analyst Cassie Fish noted the spread is "just too much of a discount," suggesting upward pressure on futures as the market corrects toward cash.
Feeder Cattle: August feeder cattle futures rose 3.450 cents to settle at 354.150 cents/lb. Oklahoma City auction reported feeder steers steady to $5 higher (instances $10 higher on heavier weights), feeder heifers $2–$8 higher. OKC West reported steer calves $5–$15 higher on strong post-rain demand. Calf markets were softer at the main OKC barn, with steer calves $10–$20 lower amid extreme heat concerns.
Carcass Weights: Current carcass weights at 948 lbs — down 7 lbs from the prior week but still 40 lbs heavier than last year. Year-over-year record weights continue to support quality grading.
Quality Grade: Combined steer/heifer grading at 87.6%, down 1.0% from the prior week. A slow seasonal decline is expected through summer, though historically elevated out-weights will keep grading high by historical standards.
Corn Basis: Corn basis in Guymon, Oklahoma has firmed to +$1.00 over the July contract, driven by rising transportation costs and competition for trucks from data center construction demand.
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3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS
DEVELOPMENT 1: MEXICO HALTS MOST LIVE ANIMAL IMPORTS FROM THE U.S.
Following confirmation of screwworm cases in Texas and New Mexico, Mexico's agriculture ministry announced a suspension of most live animal imports from the U.S., covering cattle, horses, pigs, sheep, goats and other species. Mexico cited the need to protect cattle herds in its northern border states — Baja California, Baja California Sur, Chihuahua and Sinaloa — where no confirmed cases currently exist. Mexico has recorded more than 28,200 screwworm cases since November 2024. This reversal of trade flow — where the U.S. had been awaiting reopening of the Mexican border for feeder cattle imports — adds a new layer of trade disruption. The near-term impact on U.S. feeder cattle supply is limited, but it signals that cross-border logistics will remain complicated and uncertain for the foreseeable future.
DEVELOPMENT 2: SCREWWORM CASES EXPAND GEOGRAPHICALLY — NOW AT SIX CONFIRMED U.S. CASES
USDA confirmed two additional screwworm cases as of June 8: one in a calf in La Salle County, Texas, and another in a dog in Andrews County, Texas — approximately 350 miles from the other confirmed cases. The geographic spread is notable. As of Tuesday, USDA had confirmed a total of six U.S. cases. Oklahoma State University extension specialist Derrell Peel emphasized that NWS will not affect cattle supply, beef production, or food safety, and that market impacts will remain primarily local. The futures market has largely priced in the NWS reality, with analysts expecting the focus to shift back to supply-and-demand fundamentals. Still, the expanding geographic footprint warrants continued monitoring, particularly regarding livestock movement restrictions.
DEVELOPMENT 3: CARGILL FORT MORGAN LOCKOUT ENTERS THIRD WEEK — UNFAIR LABOR PRACTICE CHARGES FILED
Teamsters Local 455 has filed unfair labor practice charges against Cargill after the company cut off pay and benefits access to more than 1,700 locked-out workers at the Fort Morgan, Colorado beef processing facility. The lockout has now extended into its third week following the expiration of the Local 455 contract in February and members' rejection of Cargill's last offer in May. The Teamsters Food Processing Division is also exploring potential antitrust issues connected to the company's conduct, citing Cargill's recent $32.5 million settlement in a beef price-fixing case. A prolonged disruption at a major beef processing facility adds to already tight slaughter capacity and could affect regional beef supplies and packer margins if not resolved soon.
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4. OUTLOOK: WHAT RANCHERS SHOULD EXPECT
FED CATTLE: Tight supplies and a significant futures-to-cash discount set up a constructive environment for cattle owners. Processors are hoping that Father's Day and Fourth of July demand will revive beef movement, but retailer reluctance to feature beef below cost remains a friction point. Expect slaughter volumes to remain dictated by packer margins. Weekly slaughter ran 533,000 head last week — still 48,000 under year-ago levels.
SCREWWORM MANAGEMENT: Producers in Texas and surrounding states should treat NWS as a new ongoing management cost rather than a market-disrupting event. Treatment protocols are available and effective. The psychological uncertainty premium in the market is largely resolved. Watch for any federal or state livestock movement restrictions that could affect your ability to sell or move cattle regionally.
FEEDER AND REPLACEMENT CATTLE: Recent rains across Oklahoma and parts of the Southern Plains are a genuine positive, reviving forage and supporting aggressive buying at auction. The week ending May 30 showed feeder and stocker marketings running 37.8% above the three-year average — a sign of active movement. However, a creeping pessimism is entering replacement markets tied to tight feeding margins and the longer-term decline in processing plant capacity. Producers should monitor feedyard placement economics carefully, particularly with corn basis elevated at +$1.00 in key feeding regions.
TRADE AND LOGISTICS: The Mexico live animal import ban is the most significant new logistics development. While it does not immediately disrupt U.S. beef exports, it eliminates a potential near-term source of feeder cattle from Mexico and signals that border trade normalization will take longer than markets had hoped. Canadian symbolic ban on Texas livestock adds minor noise but no material supply impact.
LABOR AND PROCESSING CAPACITY: The Cargill Fort Morgan situation deserves close attention. Any extended disruption at a major packing plant tightens regional slaughter capacity and could widen basis or create scheduling delays for producers in Colorado and surrounding states. Monitor for resolution or escalation at the bargaining table.
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Prepared for distribution: June 11, 2026
June 11, 2026
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
1. MARKET SENTIMENT: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH — Score: 6.5/10
Fed cattle supplies remain tight, cattle owners retain pricing leverage, and futures are trading at a meaningful discount to cash — a setup that historically resolves in favor of higher futures prices. However, headwinds from Mexico's live animal import ban, retailer hesitancy to feature beef at a loss, and creeping pessimism in replacement markets temper the outlook. The screwworm situation is transitioning from a headline shock to a managed operational challenge, which removes a layer of uncertainty from the market.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
2. KEY PRICE TRENDS
Fed Cattle Cash: Live trades this week in the north reported at $256/cwt live and $406/cwt dressed — roughly steady with last week. Cash market-ready cattle traded in the $256–$258/cwt range last week.
Futures Discount to Cash: Front-month June live cattle futures settled at 248.025 cents/lb on Tuesday, with August at 239.700 cents/lb. Both contracts are trading well below the cash equivalent of $250+/cwt. Analyst Cassie Fish noted the spread is "just too much of a discount," suggesting upward pressure on futures as the market corrects toward cash.
Feeder Cattle: August feeder cattle futures rose 3.450 cents to settle at 354.150 cents/lb. Oklahoma City auction reported feeder steers steady to $5 higher (instances $10 higher on heavier weights), feeder heifers $2–$8 higher. OKC West reported steer calves $5–$15 higher on strong post-rain demand. Calf markets were softer at the main OKC barn, with steer calves $10–$20 lower amid extreme heat concerns.
Carcass Weights: Current carcass weights at 948 lbs — down 7 lbs from the prior week but still 40 lbs heavier than last year. Year-over-year record weights continue to support quality grading.
Quality Grade: Combined steer/heifer grading at 87.6%, down 1.0% from the prior week. A slow seasonal decline is expected through summer, though historically elevated out-weights will keep grading high by historical standards.
Corn Basis: Corn basis in Guymon, Oklahoma has firmed to +$1.00 over the July contract, driven by rising transportation costs and competition for trucks from data center construction demand.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS
DEVELOPMENT 1: MEXICO HALTS MOST LIVE ANIMAL IMPORTS FROM THE U.S.
Following confirmation of screwworm cases in Texas and New Mexico, Mexico's agriculture ministry announced a suspension of most live animal imports from the U.S., covering cattle, horses, pigs, sheep, goats and other species. Mexico cited the need to protect cattle herds in its northern border states — Baja California, Baja California Sur, Chihuahua and Sinaloa — where no confirmed cases currently exist. Mexico has recorded more than 28,200 screwworm cases since November 2024. This reversal of trade flow — where the U.S. had been awaiting reopening of the Mexican border for feeder cattle imports — adds a new layer of trade disruption. The near-term impact on U.S. feeder cattle supply is limited, but it signals that cross-border logistics will remain complicated and uncertain for the foreseeable future.
DEVELOPMENT 2: SCREWWORM CASES EXPAND GEOGRAPHICALLY — NOW AT SIX CONFIRMED U.S. CASES
USDA confirmed two additional screwworm cases as of June 8: one in a calf in La Salle County, Texas, and another in a dog in Andrews County, Texas — approximately 350 miles from the other confirmed cases. The geographic spread is notable. As of Tuesday, USDA had confirmed a total of six U.S. cases. Oklahoma State University extension specialist Derrell Peel emphasized that NWS will not affect cattle supply, beef production, or food safety, and that market impacts will remain primarily local. The futures market has largely priced in the NWS reality, with analysts expecting the focus to shift back to supply-and-demand fundamentals. Still, the expanding geographic footprint warrants continued monitoring, particularly regarding livestock movement restrictions.
DEVELOPMENT 3: CARGILL FORT MORGAN LOCKOUT ENTERS THIRD WEEK — UNFAIR LABOR PRACTICE CHARGES FILED
Teamsters Local 455 has filed unfair labor practice charges against Cargill after the company cut off pay and benefits access to more than 1,700 locked-out workers at the Fort Morgan, Colorado beef processing facility. The lockout has now extended into its third week following the expiration of the Local 455 contract in February and members' rejection of Cargill's last offer in May. The Teamsters Food Processing Division is also exploring potential antitrust issues connected to the company's conduct, citing Cargill's recent $32.5 million settlement in a beef price-fixing case. A prolonged disruption at a major beef processing facility adds to already tight slaughter capacity and could affect regional beef supplies and packer margins if not resolved soon.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
4. OUTLOOK: WHAT RANCHERS SHOULD EXPECT
FED CATTLE: Tight supplies and a significant futures-to-cash discount set up a constructive environment for cattle owners. Processors are hoping that Father's Day and Fourth of July demand will revive beef movement, but retailer reluctance to feature beef below cost remains a friction point. Expect slaughter volumes to remain dictated by packer margins. Weekly slaughter ran 533,000 head last week — still 48,000 under year-ago levels.
SCREWWORM MANAGEMENT: Producers in Texas and surrounding states should treat NWS as a new ongoing management cost rather than a market-disrupting event. Treatment protocols are available and effective. The psychological uncertainty premium in the market is largely resolved. Watch for any federal or state livestock movement restrictions that could affect your ability to sell or move cattle regionally.
FEEDER AND REPLACEMENT CATTLE: Recent rains across Oklahoma and parts of the Southern Plains are a genuine positive, reviving forage and supporting aggressive buying at auction. The week ending May 30 showed feeder and stocker marketings running 37.8% above the three-year average — a sign of active movement. However, a creeping pessimism is entering replacement markets tied to tight feeding margins and the longer-term decline in processing plant capacity. Producers should monitor feedyard placement economics carefully, particularly with corn basis elevated at +$1.00 in key feeding regions.
TRADE AND LOGISTICS: The Mexico live animal import ban is the most significant new logistics development. While it does not immediately disrupt U.S. beef exports, it eliminates a potential near-term source of feeder cattle from Mexico and signals that border trade normalization will take longer than markets had hoped. Canadian symbolic ban on Texas livestock adds minor noise but no material supply impact.
LABOR AND PROCESSING CAPACITY: The Cargill Fort Morgan situation deserves close attention. Any extended disruption at a major packing plant tightens regional slaughter capacity and could widen basis or create scheduling delays for producers in Colorado and surrounding states. Monitor for resolution or escalation at the bargaining table.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Prepared for distribution: June 11, 2026
For more detailed information or specific market data, please contact your local extension office or market analyst.