DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
June 12, 2026
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
1. MARKET SENTIMENT: MODERATELY BULLISH — Score: 7 out of 10
Cash cattle markets are holding firm at $256–$258 per hundredweight, and CME futures continue trading at a notable discount to cash values, creating upward pressure on futures. The June WASDE confirms strong Q2 cattle prices and projects steady pricing through year-end. Beef choice cuts are holding near $393 per cwt. The screwworm outbreak, while concerning, is being assessed by experts as a localized issue unlikely to materially impact national beef supply or food safety. Drought conditions are improving modestly, down 3.8% week-over-week and 7.8% month-over-month, offering some relief to ranchers in key cattle regions.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
2. KEY PRICE TRENDS
CME Live Cattle Futures (June front-month): Settled at 250.100 cents per pound on Wednesday, up 2.075 cents on the day. The August contract closed at 241.500 cents per pound, up 1.800 cents.
CME August Feeder Cattle: Settled at 354.375 cents per pound, essentially flat on Wednesday after strong gains Tuesday (+3.450 cents).
Cash Cattle: Slaughter-ready cattle trading at $256–$258 per cwt. Brokers expect steady to higher prices this week. Futures remain at a meaningful discount to cash, which analysts say is "just too much of a discount" — a phrase echoed by market analyst Cassie Fish — and is supporting the futures rally.
USDA Choice Beef Cutout: $393.28 per cwt on Wednesday, up 38 cents from Tuesday but below last week's peak of $395.86.
Feeder and Stocker Marketings: The week ending May 30 showed feeder and stocker cattle marketed at 37.8% above the three-year average, suggesting strong producer movement into the pipeline.
June WASDE Highlights: USDA raised cattle prices for Q2 2026 based on strong May prices but left the remainder of 2026 and 2027 unchanged. Beef production was lowered for 2026 due to slow steer and heifer slaughter rates, with heavier dressed weights partially offsetting the reduction. Beef production for 2027 is raised on expectations of more fed cattle available as 2026 feedlot placements increase.
Beef Exports: April beef exports fell 11% in volume year-over-year to 89,783 metric tons, largely due to the China market lockout. Excluding China, export volumes were up 0.3% and value rose 7%. Export value per head of fed slaughter reached $415.88, up 5% from a year ago.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS
DEVELOPMENT 1: New World Screwworm Outbreak Escalates — Mexico Halts Live Animal Imports from US
The USDA has now confirmed seven screwworm cases across Texas and New Mexico as of Wednesday, affecting cattle, a goat and a dog. In a significant trade development, Mexico has suspended most imports of live animals from the US — including cattle, horses, pigs, sheep and goats — to protect its northern herds in Baja California, Chihuahua and Sinaloa, where no cases have yet been confirmed. Mexico has recorded over 28,200 screwworm cases since November 2024.
The federal response is ramping up: Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins announced $100 million in accelerated grant funding for new control technologies and confirmed more than 100 USDA staff are working full-time on the outbreak. The FDA has issued 12 emergency use authorizations or conditional approvals for screwworm treatments since last September, with drug stockpiles being built in Texas through partnerships with Elanco and Merck Animal Health.
However, serious concerns remain. The USDA is operating with 25% fewer animal health experts than at the start of the Trump administration, after a workforce reduction initiative. The sterile fly program — a key suppression tool — is producing 100 million flies per week from a Panama facility, but officials acknowledge that is well short of what is needed for full containment. A new Texas sterile fly facility is not expected to open until late 2027.
Oklahoma State University extension specialist Derrell Peel has offered reassurance: screwworm will not affect meat safety, will not disrupt national cattle supply, and is not a food safety issue. He characterizes the market reaction as one of "relief" now that the threat has materialized, noting the uncertainty had been priced in for months. Canada's temporary ban on Texas livestock is described as largely symbolic given minimal Texas-to-Canada cattle flows.
DEVELOPMENT 2: Cargill Fort Morgan Lockout Enters Third Week — Unfair Labor Practice Charges Filed
Teamsters Local 455 has filed unfair labor practice charges against Cargill after the company cut off pay and benefits access to over 1,700 locked-out workers at the Fort Morgan, Colorado beef processing facility. The lockout began after members rejected Cargill's last contract offer on May 19, following the expiration of the Local 455 contract on February 22.
The dispute carries broader implications for beef processing capacity and market supply. Cargill recently agreed to pay $32.5 million to settle a beef price-fixing lawsuit (while denying wrongdoing), and the Teamsters Food Processing Division has indicated it is investigating potential antitrust issues tied to the company's conduct. The Fort Morgan plant is a significant processing operation, and a prolonged lockout could add supply-side pressure to an already tight beef market.
DEVELOPMENT 3: UK High Court Rules FSA Slaughterhouse Inspection Charges Unlawful
In a ruling with significant implications for meat processing economics, the UK High Court has found that the Food Standards Agency has been unlawfully charging slaughterhouses in England and Wales for official controls. The annual cost of those controls is 64 million pounds (approximately $86 million US), and industry charges rose 24% this year. The court quashed the FSA's hourly rates for both official controls and enforcement. The ruling was brought by the Association of Independent Meat Suppliers and the British Meat Processors Association, with NFU support. While this is a UK-specific ruling, it underscores growing global scrutiny of regulatory cost structures on meat processors.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
4. OUTLOOK: WHAT RANCHERS SHOULD EXPECT
Prices: Cash cattle prices are expected to hold firm or push higher in the near term. The persistent futures discount to cash values suggests further upside potential in CME contracts as the market corrects toward cash. The June WASDE's confirmation of reduced 2026 beef production — driven by slow slaughter rates — reinforces a tight supply picture that should underpin prices.
Screwworm: Ranchers in Texas, New Mexico and neighboring states should be on high alert. Inspect livestock frequently for wounds and signs of infestation. The fast-tracked treatment approvals and federal stockpiling of drugs in Texas mean treatment options are becoming more accessible. The Mexico live animal import suspension is a near-term trade headwind but is not expected to cause major market disruption — the more significant ongoing issue remains the closed US-Mexico border for feeder cattle flows, which continues to constrain feeder supply rebuilding.
Drought: Conditions improved modestly this week, particularly across the central and southern Plains and West Texas, where summer thunderstorm activity provided some relief. However, long-term moisture deficits persist, and the West is forecast to remain dry over the next 5–7 days. Ranchers in drought-affected areas should continue to monitor forage conditions closely heading into summer.
Beef Exports: The China market remains the key variable. Plant registrations were renewed following the Trump-Xi summit, but additional obstacles remain before meaningful US beef volumes return to China. Excluding China, global demand for US beef is proving resilient despite tight supplies and record-high prices. A resolution with China would represent a meaningful upside catalyst for cattle values.
Labor and Processing: The Cargill Fort Morgan lockout bears watching. If it extends further, reduced processing capacity at that facility could create localized supply bottlenecks. Ranchers with cattle ready for market in the Colorado-Nebraska-Kansas corridor should monitor developments and consider contingency marketing plans.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Sources: CME/Reuters, USDA WASDE June 2026, USMEF, USDA Drought Monitor, UAC, Teamsters Local 455, OSU Extension, BMPA/AIMS, AnimalhealthEurope, ADM
June 12, 2026
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
1. MARKET SENTIMENT: MODERATELY BULLISH — Score: 7 out of 10
Cash cattle markets are holding firm at $256–$258 per hundredweight, and CME futures continue trading at a notable discount to cash values, creating upward pressure on futures. The June WASDE confirms strong Q2 cattle prices and projects steady pricing through year-end. Beef choice cuts are holding near $393 per cwt. The screwworm outbreak, while concerning, is being assessed by experts as a localized issue unlikely to materially impact national beef supply or food safety. Drought conditions are improving modestly, down 3.8% week-over-week and 7.8% month-over-month, offering some relief to ranchers in key cattle regions.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
2. KEY PRICE TRENDS
CME Live Cattle Futures (June front-month): Settled at 250.100 cents per pound on Wednesday, up 2.075 cents on the day. The August contract closed at 241.500 cents per pound, up 1.800 cents.
CME August Feeder Cattle: Settled at 354.375 cents per pound, essentially flat on Wednesday after strong gains Tuesday (+3.450 cents).
Cash Cattle: Slaughter-ready cattle trading at $256–$258 per cwt. Brokers expect steady to higher prices this week. Futures remain at a meaningful discount to cash, which analysts say is "just too much of a discount" — a phrase echoed by market analyst Cassie Fish — and is supporting the futures rally.
USDA Choice Beef Cutout: $393.28 per cwt on Wednesday, up 38 cents from Tuesday but below last week's peak of $395.86.
Feeder and Stocker Marketings: The week ending May 30 showed feeder and stocker cattle marketed at 37.8% above the three-year average, suggesting strong producer movement into the pipeline.
June WASDE Highlights: USDA raised cattle prices for Q2 2026 based on strong May prices but left the remainder of 2026 and 2027 unchanged. Beef production was lowered for 2026 due to slow steer and heifer slaughter rates, with heavier dressed weights partially offsetting the reduction. Beef production for 2027 is raised on expectations of more fed cattle available as 2026 feedlot placements increase.
Beef Exports: April beef exports fell 11% in volume year-over-year to 89,783 metric tons, largely due to the China market lockout. Excluding China, export volumes were up 0.3% and value rose 7%. Export value per head of fed slaughter reached $415.88, up 5% from a year ago.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS
DEVELOPMENT 1: New World Screwworm Outbreak Escalates — Mexico Halts Live Animal Imports from US
The USDA has now confirmed seven screwworm cases across Texas and New Mexico as of Wednesday, affecting cattle, a goat and a dog. In a significant trade development, Mexico has suspended most imports of live animals from the US — including cattle, horses, pigs, sheep and goats — to protect its northern herds in Baja California, Chihuahua and Sinaloa, where no cases have yet been confirmed. Mexico has recorded over 28,200 screwworm cases since November 2024.
The federal response is ramping up: Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins announced $100 million in accelerated grant funding for new control technologies and confirmed more than 100 USDA staff are working full-time on the outbreak. The FDA has issued 12 emergency use authorizations or conditional approvals for screwworm treatments since last September, with drug stockpiles being built in Texas through partnerships with Elanco and Merck Animal Health.
However, serious concerns remain. The USDA is operating with 25% fewer animal health experts than at the start of the Trump administration, after a workforce reduction initiative. The sterile fly program — a key suppression tool — is producing 100 million flies per week from a Panama facility, but officials acknowledge that is well short of what is needed for full containment. A new Texas sterile fly facility is not expected to open until late 2027.
Oklahoma State University extension specialist Derrell Peel has offered reassurance: screwworm will not affect meat safety, will not disrupt national cattle supply, and is not a food safety issue. He characterizes the market reaction as one of "relief" now that the threat has materialized, noting the uncertainty had been priced in for months. Canada's temporary ban on Texas livestock is described as largely symbolic given minimal Texas-to-Canada cattle flows.
DEVELOPMENT 2: Cargill Fort Morgan Lockout Enters Third Week — Unfair Labor Practice Charges Filed
Teamsters Local 455 has filed unfair labor practice charges against Cargill after the company cut off pay and benefits access to over 1,700 locked-out workers at the Fort Morgan, Colorado beef processing facility. The lockout began after members rejected Cargill's last contract offer on May 19, following the expiration of the Local 455 contract on February 22.
The dispute carries broader implications for beef processing capacity and market supply. Cargill recently agreed to pay $32.5 million to settle a beef price-fixing lawsuit (while denying wrongdoing), and the Teamsters Food Processing Division has indicated it is investigating potential antitrust issues tied to the company's conduct. The Fort Morgan plant is a significant processing operation, and a prolonged lockout could add supply-side pressure to an already tight beef market.
DEVELOPMENT 3: UK High Court Rules FSA Slaughterhouse Inspection Charges Unlawful
In a ruling with significant implications for meat processing economics, the UK High Court has found that the Food Standards Agency has been unlawfully charging slaughterhouses in England and Wales for official controls. The annual cost of those controls is 64 million pounds (approximately $86 million US), and industry charges rose 24% this year. The court quashed the FSA's hourly rates for both official controls and enforcement. The ruling was brought by the Association of Independent Meat Suppliers and the British Meat Processors Association, with NFU support. While this is a UK-specific ruling, it underscores growing global scrutiny of regulatory cost structures on meat processors.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
4. OUTLOOK: WHAT RANCHERS SHOULD EXPECT
Prices: Cash cattle prices are expected to hold firm or push higher in the near term. The persistent futures discount to cash values suggests further upside potential in CME contracts as the market corrects toward cash. The June WASDE's confirmation of reduced 2026 beef production — driven by slow slaughter rates — reinforces a tight supply picture that should underpin prices.
Screwworm: Ranchers in Texas, New Mexico and neighboring states should be on high alert. Inspect livestock frequently for wounds and signs of infestation. The fast-tracked treatment approvals and federal stockpiling of drugs in Texas mean treatment options are becoming more accessible. The Mexico live animal import suspension is a near-term trade headwind but is not expected to cause major market disruption — the more significant ongoing issue remains the closed US-Mexico border for feeder cattle flows, which continues to constrain feeder supply rebuilding.
Drought: Conditions improved modestly this week, particularly across the central and southern Plains and West Texas, where summer thunderstorm activity provided some relief. However, long-term moisture deficits persist, and the West is forecast to remain dry over the next 5–7 days. Ranchers in drought-affected areas should continue to monitor forage conditions closely heading into summer.
Beef Exports: The China market remains the key variable. Plant registrations were renewed following the Trump-Xi summit, but additional obstacles remain before meaningful US beef volumes return to China. Excluding China, global demand for US beef is proving resilient despite tight supplies and record-high prices. A resolution with China would represent a meaningful upside catalyst for cattle values.
Labor and Processing: The Cargill Fort Morgan lockout bears watching. If it extends further, reduced processing capacity at that facility could create localized supply bottlenecks. Ranchers with cattle ready for market in the Colorado-Nebraska-Kansas corridor should monitor developments and consider contingency marketing plans.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Sources: CME/Reuters, USDA WASDE June 2026, USMEF, USDA Drought Monitor, UAC, Teamsters Local 455, OSU Extension, BMPA/AIMS, AnimalhealthEurope, ADM
For more detailed information or specific market data, please contact your local extension office or market analyst.