DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
June 13, 2026
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1. MARKET SENTIMENT: MODERATELY BULLISH — Score: 6.5 out of 10
Cash cattle markets remain firm with cattle owners holding leverage in a tight supply environment. Fed cattle futures posted a third consecutive session of gains, narrowing the discount to cash values. The JBS plant closures introduced some initial uncertainty, but the market absorbed the news without significant disruption. Screwworm concerns are shifting from panic to managed response, removing a key source of psychological overhang. Tight fed supplies, favorable seasonal demand periods ahead, and strong consumer preference for beef underpin the bullish case. Headwinds include retailer reluctance to feature beef at a loss, softer beef exports, and ongoing packer margin pressure.
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2. KEY PRICE TRENDS
CASH CATTLE: Live cash trades settled at $255-$256 per hundredweight this week after packers initially tested $254. Dressed sales in the north moved at $405-$406. Cash continues to trade at a premium to futures, which is supporting board prices as convergence approaches.
FUTURES: CME June live cattle settled at 251.475 cents per pound Thursday, up 1.375 cents on the session — the third straight day of gains. August live cattle closed at 242.675 cents, up 1.175 cents. August feeder cattle surged 5.275 cents to settle at 359.650 cents per pound. Basis levels are tightening as futures re-converge with cash ahead of delivery.
BOXED BEEF: USDA choice cutout was priced at $393.21 per cwt Thursday, essentially flat on the week and below last week's peak of $395.86. The choice/select spread is widening as retailers prepare summer promotions around Father's Day and the Fourth of July.
FEEDER MARKETS: Oklahoma City reported feeder steers steady to $5 higher, with instances $10 higher on heavier weights. Feeder heifers were $2-$8 higher. Steer calves at OKC West were $5-$15 higher on good rains and aggressive buyer demand. Calf markets were softer at the main OKC barn, down $10-$20 on steers, with heat stress concerns limiting buyer enthusiasm for lightweight unweaned calves.
CORN: Corn prices have flattened but basis levels are moving higher. Guymon, Oklahoma corn basis is at +$1.00 over the July contract, driven by rising transportation costs linked to competition for trucking from data center construction activity.
SLAUGHTER VOLUME: This past week's slaughter was 533,000 head, up 85,000 from the holiday-shortened prior week but still 48,000 head under last year's pace. Weekly carcass weights came in at 948 pounds, down 7 pounds from the prior week but still 40 pounds heavier than last year. Quality grade was 87.6%, down 1.0% week over week.
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3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS
DEVELOPMENT 1: JBS CLOSES TWO U.S. FACILITIES
JBS USA announced the planned closure of its beef slaughter facility in Souderton, Pennsylvania and a value-added facility in Memphis, Tennessee. The company stated production will be absorbed into its broader network, with major expansions underway in Texas, Georgia, and Iowa. Markets initially absorbed the news cautiously before packers attempted to push bids lower, though cattle owners largely held firm. The closures reflect ongoing packer margin pressure in a high-cost, tight-supply environment and signal continued consolidation of processing capacity. Ranchers should note that fewer processing outlets generally support cattle owner leverage in the near term but raise longer-term concerns about regional market access.
DEVELOPMENT 2: NEW WORLD SCREWWORM — CONFIRMED CASES RISING, RESPONSE UNDERWAY
USDA confirmed nine screwworm cases in Texas and New Mexico as of Thursday, affecting cattle, a goat, and a dog. The agency has more than 100 staff working full-time on containment, has fast-tracked 13 emergency use authorizations or conditional approvals for treatments, and is accelerating $100 million in grant funding for new control technologies. Critically, USDA is deploying 100 million sterile flies weekly from a Panama facility, though officials acknowledge significantly more are needed. A domestic sterile fly production facility in Texas is not expected to come online until late 2027. The agency is also operating with 25% fewer animal health staff than at the start of the current administration. Canada has imposed a largely symbolic temporary ban on livestock from Texas. Oklahoma State's Derrell Peel notes the psychological impact has largely been one of relief — confirming the outbreak removes uncertainty and allows markets to focus on reality, which was already priced in. No food safety risk exists, and no major beef supply or trade disruptions are anticipated.
DEVELOPMENT 3: USDA ISSUES DIRECTIVE TO EXPAND GRAZING ON NATIONAL FOREST LANDS
Secretary Rollins announced a comprehensive directive to all U.S. Forest Service employees to restore and expand grazing access on National Forest System lands. The directive prioritizes filling vacant and closed allotments, streamlining permitting, maximizing grazing flexibilities, and giving ranchers stronger engagement with federal land managers. The action protects approximately 23,000 permittees and lessees who rely on public rangelands and builds on an October 2025 USDA plan to fortify the American beef industry. For cow-calf operators dependent on federal grazing permits, this represents a meaningful long-term positive for operational access and cost management.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
4. OUTLOOK: WHAT RANCHERS SHOULD EXPECT
NEAR-TERM (2-4 WEEKS): Cash cattle prices should hold firm or move modestly higher. Packers are motivated to build forward contract positions ahead of favorable summer demand periods — Father's Day and the Fourth of July — and slaughter volumes will remain constrained by processing margins. Cattle owners retain leverage as fed supplies stay tight. Retailer reluctance to feature beef at a loss remains the primary demand-side risk and is slowing supermarket movement. Watch for whether retailers begin promoting middle meats for summer grilling as the season progresses.
SCREWWORM WATCH: Producers in Texas, New Mexico, and surrounding states should be implementing monitoring protocols now. Treatment options are available and being stockpiled. The pest is manageable but will require diligence. The market has largely priced in the outbreak's existence; further futures volatility is more likely tied to the pace of spread than to the confirmed case count itself.
FEEDER AND REPLACEMENT MARKETS: Recent rains across drought-stressed areas of Oklahoma and the southern Plains are improving pasture conditions and supporting aggressive feeder buying. Placement activity into feedyards may slow through June as grass conditions improve. The USDA June WASDE confirms beef production is being lowered for 2026 on slow steer and heifer slaughter rates, with heavier weights providing a partial offset. Beef production for 2027 is being raised as reduced 2026 marketings build a pipeline of fed cattle for next year.
BEEF EXPORTS: Pork exports are surging while beef exports remain under pressure, down 11% year-over-year in April. The China market remains largely closed to U.S. beef despite diplomatic progress. Bright spots include Taiwan, Egypt, the Caribbean, and ASEAN. Beef variety meat exports are a notable positive, up 20% in April. Continued weakness in the Korean won, Japanese yen, and Southeast Asian currencies is a headwind for demand in those markets.
LONGER-TERM STRUCTURAL NOTE: Consumer demand for beef remains exceptionally strong. Per capita retail beef availability in 2025 reached 59.4 pounds, the highest since 2010, and real price increases have been more moderate than the previous supply-driven cycle of 2009-2015. The current price environment is demand-driven, not a supply crisis — a fundamentally healthier market condition for producers. Increasing calf supplies in the pipeline and the USDA's push to expand public land grazing access both point toward gradual herd rebuilding as the industry's next chapter.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Sources: CME settlement data, USDA AMS, USDA WASDE June 2026, USDA Drought Monitor week ending 6/9/26, Reuters, Beef Magazine, USMEF, JBS USA press release, USDA Forest Service directive 6/12/26.
June 13, 2026
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
1. MARKET SENTIMENT: MODERATELY BULLISH — Score: 6.5 out of 10
Cash cattle markets remain firm with cattle owners holding leverage in a tight supply environment. Fed cattle futures posted a third consecutive session of gains, narrowing the discount to cash values. The JBS plant closures introduced some initial uncertainty, but the market absorbed the news without significant disruption. Screwworm concerns are shifting from panic to managed response, removing a key source of psychological overhang. Tight fed supplies, favorable seasonal demand periods ahead, and strong consumer preference for beef underpin the bullish case. Headwinds include retailer reluctance to feature beef at a loss, softer beef exports, and ongoing packer margin pressure.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
2. KEY PRICE TRENDS
CASH CATTLE: Live cash trades settled at $255-$256 per hundredweight this week after packers initially tested $254. Dressed sales in the north moved at $405-$406. Cash continues to trade at a premium to futures, which is supporting board prices as convergence approaches.
FUTURES: CME June live cattle settled at 251.475 cents per pound Thursday, up 1.375 cents on the session — the third straight day of gains. August live cattle closed at 242.675 cents, up 1.175 cents. August feeder cattle surged 5.275 cents to settle at 359.650 cents per pound. Basis levels are tightening as futures re-converge with cash ahead of delivery.
BOXED BEEF: USDA choice cutout was priced at $393.21 per cwt Thursday, essentially flat on the week and below last week's peak of $395.86. The choice/select spread is widening as retailers prepare summer promotions around Father's Day and the Fourth of July.
FEEDER MARKETS: Oklahoma City reported feeder steers steady to $5 higher, with instances $10 higher on heavier weights. Feeder heifers were $2-$8 higher. Steer calves at OKC West were $5-$15 higher on good rains and aggressive buyer demand. Calf markets were softer at the main OKC barn, down $10-$20 on steers, with heat stress concerns limiting buyer enthusiasm for lightweight unweaned calves.
CORN: Corn prices have flattened but basis levels are moving higher. Guymon, Oklahoma corn basis is at +$1.00 over the July contract, driven by rising transportation costs linked to competition for trucking from data center construction activity.
SLAUGHTER VOLUME: This past week's slaughter was 533,000 head, up 85,000 from the holiday-shortened prior week but still 48,000 head under last year's pace. Weekly carcass weights came in at 948 pounds, down 7 pounds from the prior week but still 40 pounds heavier than last year. Quality grade was 87.6%, down 1.0% week over week.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS
DEVELOPMENT 1: JBS CLOSES TWO U.S. FACILITIES
JBS USA announced the planned closure of its beef slaughter facility in Souderton, Pennsylvania and a value-added facility in Memphis, Tennessee. The company stated production will be absorbed into its broader network, with major expansions underway in Texas, Georgia, and Iowa. Markets initially absorbed the news cautiously before packers attempted to push bids lower, though cattle owners largely held firm. The closures reflect ongoing packer margin pressure in a high-cost, tight-supply environment and signal continued consolidation of processing capacity. Ranchers should note that fewer processing outlets generally support cattle owner leverage in the near term but raise longer-term concerns about regional market access.
DEVELOPMENT 2: NEW WORLD SCREWWORM — CONFIRMED CASES RISING, RESPONSE UNDERWAY
USDA confirmed nine screwworm cases in Texas and New Mexico as of Thursday, affecting cattle, a goat, and a dog. The agency has more than 100 staff working full-time on containment, has fast-tracked 13 emergency use authorizations or conditional approvals for treatments, and is accelerating $100 million in grant funding for new control technologies. Critically, USDA is deploying 100 million sterile flies weekly from a Panama facility, though officials acknowledge significantly more are needed. A domestic sterile fly production facility in Texas is not expected to come online until late 2027. The agency is also operating with 25% fewer animal health staff than at the start of the current administration. Canada has imposed a largely symbolic temporary ban on livestock from Texas. Oklahoma State's Derrell Peel notes the psychological impact has largely been one of relief — confirming the outbreak removes uncertainty and allows markets to focus on reality, which was already priced in. No food safety risk exists, and no major beef supply or trade disruptions are anticipated.
DEVELOPMENT 3: USDA ISSUES DIRECTIVE TO EXPAND GRAZING ON NATIONAL FOREST LANDS
Secretary Rollins announced a comprehensive directive to all U.S. Forest Service employees to restore and expand grazing access on National Forest System lands. The directive prioritizes filling vacant and closed allotments, streamlining permitting, maximizing grazing flexibilities, and giving ranchers stronger engagement with federal land managers. The action protects approximately 23,000 permittees and lessees who rely on public rangelands and builds on an October 2025 USDA plan to fortify the American beef industry. For cow-calf operators dependent on federal grazing permits, this represents a meaningful long-term positive for operational access and cost management.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
4. OUTLOOK: WHAT RANCHERS SHOULD EXPECT
NEAR-TERM (2-4 WEEKS): Cash cattle prices should hold firm or move modestly higher. Packers are motivated to build forward contract positions ahead of favorable summer demand periods — Father's Day and the Fourth of July — and slaughter volumes will remain constrained by processing margins. Cattle owners retain leverage as fed supplies stay tight. Retailer reluctance to feature beef at a loss remains the primary demand-side risk and is slowing supermarket movement. Watch for whether retailers begin promoting middle meats for summer grilling as the season progresses.
SCREWWORM WATCH: Producers in Texas, New Mexico, and surrounding states should be implementing monitoring protocols now. Treatment options are available and being stockpiled. The pest is manageable but will require diligence. The market has largely priced in the outbreak's existence; further futures volatility is more likely tied to the pace of spread than to the confirmed case count itself.
FEEDER AND REPLACEMENT MARKETS: Recent rains across drought-stressed areas of Oklahoma and the southern Plains are improving pasture conditions and supporting aggressive feeder buying. Placement activity into feedyards may slow through June as grass conditions improve. The USDA June WASDE confirms beef production is being lowered for 2026 on slow steer and heifer slaughter rates, with heavier weights providing a partial offset. Beef production for 2027 is being raised as reduced 2026 marketings build a pipeline of fed cattle for next year.
BEEF EXPORTS: Pork exports are surging while beef exports remain under pressure, down 11% year-over-year in April. The China market remains largely closed to U.S. beef despite diplomatic progress. Bright spots include Taiwan, Egypt, the Caribbean, and ASEAN. Beef variety meat exports are a notable positive, up 20% in April. Continued weakness in the Korean won, Japanese yen, and Southeast Asian currencies is a headwind for demand in those markets.
LONGER-TERM STRUCTURAL NOTE: Consumer demand for beef remains exceptionally strong. Per capita retail beef availability in 2025 reached 59.4 pounds, the highest since 2010, and real price increases have been more moderate than the previous supply-driven cycle of 2009-2015. The current price environment is demand-driven, not a supply crisis — a fundamentally healthier market condition for producers. Increasing calf supplies in the pipeline and the USDA's push to expand public land grazing access both point toward gradual herd rebuilding as the industry's next chapter.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Sources: CME settlement data, USDA AMS, USDA WASDE June 2026, USDA Drought Monitor week ending 6/9/26, Reuters, Beef Magazine, USMEF, JBS USA press release, USDA Forest Service directive 6/12/26.
For more detailed information or specific market data, please contact your local extension office or market analyst.