DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
June 19, 2026
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1. MARKET SENTIMENT: MODERATELY BULLISH — Score: 6/10
The overall tone remains constructive for cattle owners despite some softening in futures late in the week. Tight fed cattle supplies continue to give producers leverage, cash prices held firm at $256 live and $405-$407 dressed through most of the week, and feeder cattle futures posted strong multi-week highs mid-week. However, bearish pressure emerged Thursday as profit-taking ahead of the Juneteenth holiday, post-Father's Day demand concerns, and a mixed Cattle on Feed report pulled futures lower. Packer margins remain deeply negative, which is a structural drag on the market. The screwworm situation continues to be a net bullish factor for cattle prices, though its headline impact on futures appears to be fading.
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2. KEY PRICE TRENDS
CASH CATTLE: Trade this week showed asking prices in Texas jumping to $260-$262 live, up $2 from the prior week, though final confirmed trades last week averaged $256.08 live and $405 dressed — steady to down slightly from the week prior. Cash markets were thin early in the week.
FUTURES SETTLEMENT (Thursday close):
- June live cattle: 254.800 cents/lb, down 0.925 cents on the day
- August live cattle: 246.625 cents/lb, down 2.225 cents on the day
- August feeder cattle: 366.600 cents/lb, down 0.825 cents on the day
Note: Earlier in the week, August live cattle hit a four-week high of $249.20 and August feeders hit a five-week high of $366.875 before Thursday's pullback.
CUTOUT VALUES: The Choice cutout ended last week at $391.93, down $0.77 week-over-week. The Select cutout fell sharply to $372.72, down $9.97 on the week, widening the Choice/Select spread to more seasonally normal levels. Widening spread signals declining quality grade — carcass weights at 947 lbs are down 1 lb from the prior week but remain 38 lbs heavier than last year.
FEEDER CATTLE CASH: Oklahoma City reported feeder steers 2.00-10.00 higher, with 600-lb weights up as much as 20.00. Weaned calves were 20.00 higher. Demand was described as good to strong.
BEEF EXPORTS: April beef exports totaled 89,783 MT, down 11% year-over-year, largely due to the China lockout. Excluding China, exports were essentially flat in volume and up 7% in value — demonstrating resilient global demand. Weekly export sales reported by USDA this week came in at 10,400 MT for 2026, down 45% from the prior week, a notable one-week drop.
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3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS
DEVELOPMENT 1: CATTLE ON FEED REPORT — PLACEMENTS SHARPLY BELOW EXPECTATIONS
The USDA June Cattle on Feed report, released after the close Thursday, delivered a notably bearish surprise on placements but a bullish signal on supply tightness overall.
Key figures:
- June 1 feedlot inventory: 11.7 million head, up 2% from a year ago (slightly below the analyst estimate of 2.5%)
- May placements: 1.70 million head, DOWN 10% from 2025 (analysts had expected only a 5.5% decline — a major miss)
- May marketings: 1.55 million head, DOWN 12% from 2025 (second lowest for May since the series began in 1996; analysts had estimated -10.6%)
The sharply lower placements signal that the pipeline of cattle coming to market in the months ahead will be tighter than expected, which is fundamentally supportive of cattle prices into late 2026. The marketing shortfall confirms what slaughter data already showed — packers are harvesting fewer cattle. Total weekly slaughter last week was 524,000 head, 36,000 below year-ago levels. This is one of the lowest non-holiday weekly slaughter totals in years.
DEVELOPMENT 2: NEW WORLD SCREWWORM — USDA COMMITS $105 MILLION, CASE COUNT HOLDS AT 12
The screwworm situation remains contained but commands serious federal attention. As of this week, 12 confirmed cases exist — 7 in cattle, 3 in goats, 1 in sheep, 1 in a dog — concentrated in south-central Texas with one case in southeast New Mexico. The most recent confirmed case (a sheep in Sutton County, Texas, detected June 12) is now listed as inactive. Critically, there are no detections in wild or feral animal populations and no positive fly-trap captures, indicating no established breeding population.
USDA approved 40 projects worth approximately $105 million to strengthen surveillance, sterile fly production, drone-based detection, wound-detection technology, and low-level insecticide applications. The agency reviewed 226 applications seeking $664 million before selecting the strongest candidates. This signals USDA is treating NWS as a long-term biosecurity challenge, not a short-term emergency. Mexico has banned live animal imports from the U.S. (a political gesture with minimal practical cattle market impact), and Canada has banned livestock imports from Texas (also minimal cattle industry impact). No restrictions have been placed on U.S. beef movement. Consumer messaging has been effective — no food safety concerns are circulating.
DEVELOPMENT 3: JBS CLOSES SOUDERTON, PA PLANT — PACKER CAPACITY CONTRACTION CONTINUES
JBS announced the closure of its Souderton, Pennsylvania beef plant, which employs approximately 1,700 workers and slaughters roughly 2,000 head per day. JBS is also closing a small value-added meat packaging facility in Memphis. These closures reflect the ongoing reality that packer margins are deeply negative and processors are scrutinizing every facility for efficiency. JBS simultaneously reaffirmed a $150 million investment in its much larger Cactus, Texas plant, signaling consolidation toward larger, more efficient operations. The Souderton closure primarily affects cull cattle from the eastern U.S. and cattle transported long distances from the Midwest. Regionally, supply will shift to other JBS facilities. This is part of a broader industry trend — tighter cattle supplies and compressed margins are forcing capacity rationalization, which will likely continue.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
4. OUTLOOK: WHAT RANCHERS SHOULD EXPECT
SUPPLY PICTURE TIGHTENING FURTHER: The May placements miss of -10% versus expectations of -5.5% is the most significant data point of the week. Combined with second-lowest May marketings on record, the forward supply pipeline is tighter than the market had priced in. This is structurally supportive for cattle prices in the August through December timeframe. Feedlot occupancy is declining, and large feeding companies are reporting smaller committed cattle pools — giving individual cattle owners more negotiating leverage at the cash window.
PACKER BEHAVIOR TO WATCH: Packers are cutting slaughter volumes in an attempt to rebuild box beef demand and improve margins. Retailers are reluctant to sell beef at a loss, which is slowing movement at the supermarket level. Watch for a response in box prices in the coming week. If the Choice cutout stabilizes or firms heading into summer grilling season, packer margins could begin a slow recovery — which would eventually support more aggressive cash bids.
SEASONAL DEMAND TRANSITION: The market is now past Father's Day, and traders are already pricing in some seasonal demand softness for premium middle meats. The Choice/Select spread widening to more normal seasonal levels confirms this transition. Ground beef and imports will dominate the demand story for summer. Ground beef retail prices came in at $6.75/lb in May CPI data, down 2.2% from April but up 12.8% year-over-year — consumers are feeling the pressure.
FEEDER AND REPLACEMENT MARKET STRENGTH: Recent rains across Oklahoma, Texas, and the southern Plains are refreshing forage and supporting grazing demand. Feeder cattle are trading sharply higher at Oklahoma auctions, with 600-lb steers up as much as 20.00 from the prior week. Placements into feedyards may slow further through June as grass conditions improve, which tightens the forward supply chain even more. This is favorable for cow-calf operators and stocker operators currently holding cattle on grass.
TRADE POLICY RISK: The USMCA renewal deadline of July 1 is approaching with significant uncertainty. President Trump publicly stated he would prefer no agreement, though he left the door open. Agricultural groups are pushing hard for a 16-year extension with duty-free provisions. A failure to renew or signal extension could disrupt North American cattle and beef trade flows. Ranchers with exposure to Mexican feeder cattle imports or Canadian markets should monitor this closely over the next two weeks.
NWS MONITORING: The screwworm situation is contained for now, but ranchers in Texas and the southern border states should maintain heightened vigilance. USDA's $105 million investment signals this threat is not going away. Producers should familiarize themselves with wound inspection protocols and reporting procedures. The Texas rancher experience from Tom Green County (Cole Covey) provides a useful real-world reference for identification and reporting.
DROUGHT UPDATE: Total drought coverage in the Lower 48 decreased 2.0% last week and is down 10.5% from a month ago. Heavy rains hit the Midwest and southern Plains. Tropical Storm Arthur near the southeast Texas coast as of this writing will bring additional moisture to the Deep South and Southeast. The overall moisture picture is improving for pasture conditions across key cattle country.
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BOTTOM LINE: Cattle owners retain leverage. The supply pipeline is tighter than expected, feedlot placements missed badly to the downside, and packer capacity is shrinking. Near-term futures volatility will continue around post-holiday demand uncertainty and basis adjustments, but the fundamental supply story remains bullish for producers through the end of 2026. Manage basis risk carefully and watch the USMCA deadline.
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June 19, 2026
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
1. MARKET SENTIMENT: MODERATELY BULLISH — Score: 6/10
The overall tone remains constructive for cattle owners despite some softening in futures late in the week. Tight fed cattle supplies continue to give producers leverage, cash prices held firm at $256 live and $405-$407 dressed through most of the week, and feeder cattle futures posted strong multi-week highs mid-week. However, bearish pressure emerged Thursday as profit-taking ahead of the Juneteenth holiday, post-Father's Day demand concerns, and a mixed Cattle on Feed report pulled futures lower. Packer margins remain deeply negative, which is a structural drag on the market. The screwworm situation continues to be a net bullish factor for cattle prices, though its headline impact on futures appears to be fading.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
2. KEY PRICE TRENDS
CASH CATTLE: Trade this week showed asking prices in Texas jumping to $260-$262 live, up $2 from the prior week, though final confirmed trades last week averaged $256.08 live and $405 dressed — steady to down slightly from the week prior. Cash markets were thin early in the week.
FUTURES SETTLEMENT (Thursday close):
- June live cattle: 254.800 cents/lb, down 0.925 cents on the day
- August live cattle: 246.625 cents/lb, down 2.225 cents on the day
- August feeder cattle: 366.600 cents/lb, down 0.825 cents on the day
Note: Earlier in the week, August live cattle hit a four-week high of $249.20 and August feeders hit a five-week high of $366.875 before Thursday's pullback.
CUTOUT VALUES: The Choice cutout ended last week at $391.93, down $0.77 week-over-week. The Select cutout fell sharply to $372.72, down $9.97 on the week, widening the Choice/Select spread to more seasonally normal levels. Widening spread signals declining quality grade — carcass weights at 947 lbs are down 1 lb from the prior week but remain 38 lbs heavier than last year.
FEEDER CATTLE CASH: Oklahoma City reported feeder steers 2.00-10.00 higher, with 600-lb weights up as much as 20.00. Weaned calves were 20.00 higher. Demand was described as good to strong.
BEEF EXPORTS: April beef exports totaled 89,783 MT, down 11% year-over-year, largely due to the China lockout. Excluding China, exports were essentially flat in volume and up 7% in value — demonstrating resilient global demand. Weekly export sales reported by USDA this week came in at 10,400 MT for 2026, down 45% from the prior week, a notable one-week drop.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS
DEVELOPMENT 1: CATTLE ON FEED REPORT — PLACEMENTS SHARPLY BELOW EXPECTATIONS
The USDA June Cattle on Feed report, released after the close Thursday, delivered a notably bearish surprise on placements but a bullish signal on supply tightness overall.
Key figures:
- June 1 feedlot inventory: 11.7 million head, up 2% from a year ago (slightly below the analyst estimate of 2.5%)
- May placements: 1.70 million head, DOWN 10% from 2025 (analysts had expected only a 5.5% decline — a major miss)
- May marketings: 1.55 million head, DOWN 12% from 2025 (second lowest for May since the series began in 1996; analysts had estimated -10.6%)
The sharply lower placements signal that the pipeline of cattle coming to market in the months ahead will be tighter than expected, which is fundamentally supportive of cattle prices into late 2026. The marketing shortfall confirms what slaughter data already showed — packers are harvesting fewer cattle. Total weekly slaughter last week was 524,000 head, 36,000 below year-ago levels. This is one of the lowest non-holiday weekly slaughter totals in years.
DEVELOPMENT 2: NEW WORLD SCREWWORM — USDA COMMITS $105 MILLION, CASE COUNT HOLDS AT 12
The screwworm situation remains contained but commands serious federal attention. As of this week, 12 confirmed cases exist — 7 in cattle, 3 in goats, 1 in sheep, 1 in a dog — concentrated in south-central Texas with one case in southeast New Mexico. The most recent confirmed case (a sheep in Sutton County, Texas, detected June 12) is now listed as inactive. Critically, there are no detections in wild or feral animal populations and no positive fly-trap captures, indicating no established breeding population.
USDA approved 40 projects worth approximately $105 million to strengthen surveillance, sterile fly production, drone-based detection, wound-detection technology, and low-level insecticide applications. The agency reviewed 226 applications seeking $664 million before selecting the strongest candidates. This signals USDA is treating NWS as a long-term biosecurity challenge, not a short-term emergency. Mexico has banned live animal imports from the U.S. (a political gesture with minimal practical cattle market impact), and Canada has banned livestock imports from Texas (also minimal cattle industry impact). No restrictions have been placed on U.S. beef movement. Consumer messaging has been effective — no food safety concerns are circulating.
DEVELOPMENT 3: JBS CLOSES SOUDERTON, PA PLANT — PACKER CAPACITY CONTRACTION CONTINUES
JBS announced the closure of its Souderton, Pennsylvania beef plant, which employs approximately 1,700 workers and slaughters roughly 2,000 head per day. JBS is also closing a small value-added meat packaging facility in Memphis. These closures reflect the ongoing reality that packer margins are deeply negative and processors are scrutinizing every facility for efficiency. JBS simultaneously reaffirmed a $150 million investment in its much larger Cactus, Texas plant, signaling consolidation toward larger, more efficient operations. The Souderton closure primarily affects cull cattle from the eastern U.S. and cattle transported long distances from the Midwest. Regionally, supply will shift to other JBS facilities. This is part of a broader industry trend — tighter cattle supplies and compressed margins are forcing capacity rationalization, which will likely continue.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
4. OUTLOOK: WHAT RANCHERS SHOULD EXPECT
SUPPLY PICTURE TIGHTENING FURTHER: The May placements miss of -10% versus expectations of -5.5% is the most significant data point of the week. Combined with second-lowest May marketings on record, the forward supply pipeline is tighter than the market had priced in. This is structurally supportive for cattle prices in the August through December timeframe. Feedlot occupancy is declining, and large feeding companies are reporting smaller committed cattle pools — giving individual cattle owners more negotiating leverage at the cash window.
PACKER BEHAVIOR TO WATCH: Packers are cutting slaughter volumes in an attempt to rebuild box beef demand and improve margins. Retailers are reluctant to sell beef at a loss, which is slowing movement at the supermarket level. Watch for a response in box prices in the coming week. If the Choice cutout stabilizes or firms heading into summer grilling season, packer margins could begin a slow recovery — which would eventually support more aggressive cash bids.
SEASONAL DEMAND TRANSITION: The market is now past Father's Day, and traders are already pricing in some seasonal demand softness for premium middle meats. The Choice/Select spread widening to more normal seasonal levels confirms this transition. Ground beef and imports will dominate the demand story for summer. Ground beef retail prices came in at $6.75/lb in May CPI data, down 2.2% from April but up 12.8% year-over-year — consumers are feeling the pressure.
FEEDER AND REPLACEMENT MARKET STRENGTH: Recent rains across Oklahoma, Texas, and the southern Plains are refreshing forage and supporting grazing demand. Feeder cattle are trading sharply higher at Oklahoma auctions, with 600-lb steers up as much as 20.00 from the prior week. Placements into feedyards may slow further through June as grass conditions improve, which tightens the forward supply chain even more. This is favorable for cow-calf operators and stocker operators currently holding cattle on grass.
TRADE POLICY RISK: The USMCA renewal deadline of July 1 is approaching with significant uncertainty. President Trump publicly stated he would prefer no agreement, though he left the door open. Agricultural groups are pushing hard for a 16-year extension with duty-free provisions. A failure to renew or signal extension could disrupt North American cattle and beef trade flows. Ranchers with exposure to Mexican feeder cattle imports or Canadian markets should monitor this closely over the next two weeks.
NWS MONITORING: The screwworm situation is contained for now, but ranchers in Texas and the southern border states should maintain heightened vigilance. USDA's $105 million investment signals this threat is not going away. Producers should familiarize themselves with wound inspection protocols and reporting procedures. The Texas rancher experience from Tom Green County (Cole Covey) provides a useful real-world reference for identification and reporting.
DROUGHT UPDATE: Total drought coverage in the Lower 48 decreased 2.0% last week and is down 10.5% from a month ago. Heavy rains hit the Midwest and southern Plains. Tropical Storm Arthur near the southeast Texas coast as of this writing will bring additional moisture to the Deep South and Southeast. The overall moisture picture is improving for pasture conditions across key cattle country.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
BOTTOM LINE: Cattle owners retain leverage. The supply pipeline is tighter than expected, feedlot placements missed badly to the downside, and packer capacity is shrinking. Near-term futures volatility will continue around post-holiday demand uncertainty and basis adjustments, but the fundamental supply story remains bullish for producers through the end of 2026. Manage basis risk carefully and watch the USMCA deadline.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
For more detailed information or specific market data, please contact your local extension office or market analyst.