DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
July 11, 2026
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1. MARKET SENTIMENT: BEARISH (3/10)
The cattle complex is under sustained pressure. Live cattle futures have posted eight straight declines, dropping from $347 on June 26 to roughly $235 this week, while cash fed cattle fell $7 to $248 (dressed $393, down $10). Futures are trading at a steep discount to cash, and feeder futures are similarly well below the feeder cattle index. Seasonal demand softness, energy-driven inflation fears, and shaky USDA data credibility are compounding downside pressure. The one bullish counterweight remains genuinely tight fed cattle supplies, which keeps some leverage with cattle owners and limits how far packers can push margins before their own economics break down.
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2. KEY PRICE TRENDS
• Fed cattle cash: $248 live (-$7 w/w), $393 dressed (-$10 w/w) — uniform across regions.
• Futures: Eight consecutive lower closes; August live cattle settled 235.25 cents Thursday (-2.375c), August feeders 356.15 cents (-5.80c).
• Cutout: Choice cuts fell to $379.82 (-$1.38), select rose to $364.19 (+$1.10) — retailers backing off input prices amid political pressure to lower beef prices.
• Carcass weights: 938 lbs, down 4 lbs week/week but 31 lbs heavier than last year — a continued structural offset to tighter cattle numbers.
• Quality grade: 86.6%, up 0.2% but trending toward a slow decline.
• Replacement/feeder markets: Prices have held firm so far despite fed cattle weakness, but flooding/rain in some regions this week is expected to give way to hot, dry conditions next week that could pressure feeder demand. OKC West reported calves down $10-20 versus two weeks ago on plainer, unweaned cattle.
• Corn: Trading range $4-$4.50/bu; USDA pegs corn acres at 95 million; Guymon, OK basis +$1.20 over September.
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3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS
1. USDA Beef Export Data Debacle: USDA slashed its reported late-June beef export sales by 90%, from an initially reported 126,062 metric tons down to 12,064 tons. Record sales to Chile (38,434 mt) and Italy (32,274 mt) were revised to near zero (367 mt and 350 mt respectively). The error, blamed on staffing losses at USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service, has badly damaged trader confidence in official data and adds another layer of uncertainty to an already volatile futures market.
2. Iran Tensions and Energy Prices Weigh on Demand: President Trump's announcement that the interim Iran peace deal is "over," followed by fresh US military strikes, pushed crude oil higher and rattled equity markets. Analysts note higher energy costs are a direct drag on beef demand, compounding cattle futures' losses this week alongside fading post-holiday grilling demand.
3. Global Trade Realignment: The EU adopted its first-ever Livestock Strategy, aiming to boost protein self-sufficiency (25% to 35% by 2035) and competitiveness for its €400 billion sector — prompting UK industry calls for a matching strategy. Separately, Korea's safeguard tariff on Australian beef is set to jump from 5.3% to 24% later this month, a development that should benefit US beef export competitiveness into Korea just as China trade remains largely stalled despite May's plant registration renewals.
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4. OUTLOOK
Ranchers should brace for continued cash and futures softness into next week. The eight-week futures slide shows no clear sign of bottoming, and packers — reportedly losing significant money per head — will keep pushing for lower cash prices even though tight fed supplies limit how far they can go. Watch the replacement market closely: recent rains have been a temporary buffer, but a shift to hot, dry weather combined with falling fed and futures prices is expected to pressure calf and feeder prices broadly next week. Screwworm cases continuing to surface in Texas and New Mexico (with reports now also circulating, unverified, out of Nebraska) add a slow-burn regional risk, particularly for southern buyers.
On the demand side, the passing of peak grilling season, elevated energy costs, and broader consumer pullback on food spending (food prices up 26% over five years per CoBank) suggest beef demand growth will be harder to come by through late summer, even though beef remains the protein of choice for consumers willing to pay up. Export markets offer a mixed picture — Korea's tariff shift on Australian beef is a genuine opportunity for US exporters, but the USDA data scandal means traders should treat weekly export sales figures with skepticism until the agency rebuilds credibility. Net: expect a choppy, lower-trending market near-term, with any stabilization dependent on packer margins forcing a floor under cash and clearer signals on both trade data integrity and geopolitical risk.
July 11, 2026
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
1. MARKET SENTIMENT: BEARISH (3/10)
The cattle complex is under sustained pressure. Live cattle futures have posted eight straight declines, dropping from $347 on June 26 to roughly $235 this week, while cash fed cattle fell $7 to $248 (dressed $393, down $10). Futures are trading at a steep discount to cash, and feeder futures are similarly well below the feeder cattle index. Seasonal demand softness, energy-driven inflation fears, and shaky USDA data credibility are compounding downside pressure. The one bullish counterweight remains genuinely tight fed cattle supplies, which keeps some leverage with cattle owners and limits how far packers can push margins before their own economics break down.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
2. KEY PRICE TRENDS
• Fed cattle cash: $248 live (-$7 w/w), $393 dressed (-$10 w/w) — uniform across regions.
• Futures: Eight consecutive lower closes; August live cattle settled 235.25 cents Thursday (-2.375c), August feeders 356.15 cents (-5.80c).
• Cutout: Choice cuts fell to $379.82 (-$1.38), select rose to $364.19 (+$1.10) — retailers backing off input prices amid political pressure to lower beef prices.
• Carcass weights: 938 lbs, down 4 lbs week/week but 31 lbs heavier than last year — a continued structural offset to tighter cattle numbers.
• Quality grade: 86.6%, up 0.2% but trending toward a slow decline.
• Replacement/feeder markets: Prices have held firm so far despite fed cattle weakness, but flooding/rain in some regions this week is expected to give way to hot, dry conditions next week that could pressure feeder demand. OKC West reported calves down $10-20 versus two weeks ago on plainer, unweaned cattle.
• Corn: Trading range $4-$4.50/bu; USDA pegs corn acres at 95 million; Guymon, OK basis +$1.20 over September.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS
1. USDA Beef Export Data Debacle: USDA slashed its reported late-June beef export sales by 90%, from an initially reported 126,062 metric tons down to 12,064 tons. Record sales to Chile (38,434 mt) and Italy (32,274 mt) were revised to near zero (367 mt and 350 mt respectively). The error, blamed on staffing losses at USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service, has badly damaged trader confidence in official data and adds another layer of uncertainty to an already volatile futures market.
2. Iran Tensions and Energy Prices Weigh on Demand: President Trump's announcement that the interim Iran peace deal is "over," followed by fresh US military strikes, pushed crude oil higher and rattled equity markets. Analysts note higher energy costs are a direct drag on beef demand, compounding cattle futures' losses this week alongside fading post-holiday grilling demand.
3. Global Trade Realignment: The EU adopted its first-ever Livestock Strategy, aiming to boost protein self-sufficiency (25% to 35% by 2035) and competitiveness for its €400 billion sector — prompting UK industry calls for a matching strategy. Separately, Korea's safeguard tariff on Australian beef is set to jump from 5.3% to 24% later this month, a development that should benefit US beef export competitiveness into Korea just as China trade remains largely stalled despite May's plant registration renewals.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
4. OUTLOOK
Ranchers should brace for continued cash and futures softness into next week. The eight-week futures slide shows no clear sign of bottoming, and packers — reportedly losing significant money per head — will keep pushing for lower cash prices even though tight fed supplies limit how far they can go. Watch the replacement market closely: recent rains have been a temporary buffer, but a shift to hot, dry weather combined with falling fed and futures prices is expected to pressure calf and feeder prices broadly next week. Screwworm cases continuing to surface in Texas and New Mexico (with reports now also circulating, unverified, out of Nebraska) add a slow-burn regional risk, particularly for southern buyers.
On the demand side, the passing of peak grilling season, elevated energy costs, and broader consumer pullback on food spending (food prices up 26% over five years per CoBank) suggest beef demand growth will be harder to come by through late summer, even though beef remains the protein of choice for consumers willing to pay up. Export markets offer a mixed picture — Korea's tariff shift on Australian beef is a genuine opportunity for US exporters, but the USDA data scandal means traders should treat weekly export sales figures with skepticism until the agency rebuilds credibility. Net: expect a choppy, lower-trending market near-term, with any stabilization dependent on packer margins forcing a floor under cash and clearer signals on both trade data integrity and geopolitical risk.
For more detailed information or specific market data, please contact your local extension office or market analyst.