DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
August 25, 2026
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1. MARKET SENTIMENT: BEARISH-LEANING, SCORE 4/10
Sentiment has turned decidedly cautious after a brutal week of headline risk. Cash cattle fell to $225-$227 live in the north and $225-$226 in the south, down roughly $35/cwt from recent highs. CME live cattle futures hit eight-month lows before a partial recovery. The bearish pressure is almost entirely policy and psychology driven rather than fundamental — supplies remain historically tight — but the combination of Trump's beef tariff waiver, looming Mexican border reopening, and packing plant closures has injected real uncertainty into forward price discovery. Underlying fundamentals (record-low placements, shrinking feedlot pipeline, strong quality grades) remain supportive, keeping this from being a deeper bearish score.
2. KEY PRICE TRENDS
- 5-Area fed steer: $225.01 live (week of 8/21), down from $228.52 the prior week and $244.25 a year ago — a steep $35/cwt decline from last year.
- Boxed beef: Choice cutout $388.27, up from $373.24 the prior week but still below last year's $406.61. Choice-Select spread widened to $24.31.
- Feeder cattle: 700-800 lb steers fell across all major markets — Oklahoma 8-market down to $352.79, Nebraska 7-market $362.88, both well under year-ago levels. Oklahoma City cash trade was 4.00-15.00 lower across weight classes as buyers turned selective.
- Corn: Omaha corn jumped to $4.66/bu, up sharply from $4.37 the prior week, pressured by the Pro Farmer crop tour's lower yield estimate (173.2 bu/acre vs. USDA's 180.7) — adding to feeding cost pressure just as replacement values are falling.
- DDGS: $165/ton, up from $159.50.
3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS
1. TRUMP'S 90-DAY BEEF TARIFF WAIVER SPARKS INDUSTRY BACKLASH: The administration will allow 300,000 metric tons of tariff-free ground beef imports over 90 days, claiming a 25% below-market discount commitment. NCBA and USCA blasted the move as harmful to herd rebuilding, and economists (including independent trader Dan Norcini) called it "a drop in the bucket" — working out to roughly 1.9 lbs of beef per American over the entire window, or about $3.25 in theoretical consumer savings per person. Futures fell sharply on the news before partially recovering.
2. AUGUST CATTLE ON FEED REPORT CONFIRMS HISTORIC TIGHTNESS: On-feed inventory was 11.1 million head (+2% YOY), but July placements of 1.42 million head were the lowest for July since records began in 1996 (-11% YOY), and marketings (1.62 million head) were also the lowest on record for July. Cattle on feed 150+ and 180+ days remain well above last year, reflecting extended days-on-feed as the industry stretches fewer cattle to cover demand.
3. PACKING CAPACITY CONTINUES TO SHRINK & BORDER/SCREWWORM RISK GROWS: Tyson's Joslin, IL and Eagle Mountain, UT closures, plus the Pasco, WA plant listed for sale, add to previously announced Lexington, NE and JBS Souderton, PA closures — signaling packers are right-sizing shackle space to match a shrinking cattle supply. Meanwhile, new screwworm detections in Ciudad Juárez and Sonora, Mexico (near proposed New Mexico and Arizona reopening ports) cloud the timeline for reopening Mexican cattle imports, even as Douglas, AZ was slated to reopen August 24.
4. OUTLOOK
Ranchers should expect continued volatility rather than a clear directional trend in the near term. Cash and futures markets are digesting policy shocks (beef import waiver, Canada trade retaliation, Mexican border developments) that add noise but don't change the core supply story: cattle numbers are historically tight and will stay that way through year-end. Expect packers to keep gaining leverage as cash volumes thin and plant closures consolidate slaughter capacity — plan for continued packer-favorable price discovery in the short run. On the replacement side, feeder and calf prices are sliding on deferred-delivery pessimism; buyers are wary of forward commitments and health risk in newly weaned calves amid heat stress. Corn's move above $5 (nearby) on a smaller-than-expected crop adds further pressure to feeding economics. Any Mexican cattle imports this fall are likely to be modest — Dr. Derrell Peel estimates roughly 150,000 head by year-end, weighted toward lightweight feeders — meaning any near-term supply relief will be limited and gradual. Bottom line: fundamentals still favor cow-calf producers holding cattle, but expect a bumpy, policy-driven ride through the fall marketing season.
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August 25, 2026
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
1. MARKET SENTIMENT: BEARISH-LEANING, SCORE 4/10
Sentiment has turned decidedly cautious after a brutal week of headline risk. Cash cattle fell to $225-$227 live in the north and $225-$226 in the south, down roughly $35/cwt from recent highs. CME live cattle futures hit eight-month lows before a partial recovery. The bearish pressure is almost entirely policy and psychology driven rather than fundamental — supplies remain historically tight — but the combination of Trump's beef tariff waiver, looming Mexican border reopening, and packing plant closures has injected real uncertainty into forward price discovery. Underlying fundamentals (record-low placements, shrinking feedlot pipeline, strong quality grades) remain supportive, keeping this from being a deeper bearish score.
2. KEY PRICE TRENDS
- 5-Area fed steer: $225.01 live (week of 8/21), down from $228.52 the prior week and $244.25 a year ago — a steep $35/cwt decline from last year.
- Boxed beef: Choice cutout $388.27, up from $373.24 the prior week but still below last year's $406.61. Choice-Select spread widened to $24.31.
- Feeder cattle: 700-800 lb steers fell across all major markets — Oklahoma 8-market down to $352.79, Nebraska 7-market $362.88, both well under year-ago levels. Oklahoma City cash trade was 4.00-15.00 lower across weight classes as buyers turned selective.
- Corn: Omaha corn jumped to $4.66/bu, up sharply from $4.37 the prior week, pressured by the Pro Farmer crop tour's lower yield estimate (173.2 bu/acre vs. USDA's 180.7) — adding to feeding cost pressure just as replacement values are falling.
- DDGS: $165/ton, up from $159.50.
3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS
1. TRUMP'S 90-DAY BEEF TARIFF WAIVER SPARKS INDUSTRY BACKLASH: The administration will allow 300,000 metric tons of tariff-free ground beef imports over 90 days, claiming a 25% below-market discount commitment. NCBA and USCA blasted the move as harmful to herd rebuilding, and economists (including independent trader Dan Norcini) called it "a drop in the bucket" — working out to roughly 1.9 lbs of beef per American over the entire window, or about $3.25 in theoretical consumer savings per person. Futures fell sharply on the news before partially recovering.
2. AUGUST CATTLE ON FEED REPORT CONFIRMS HISTORIC TIGHTNESS: On-feed inventory was 11.1 million head (+2% YOY), but July placements of 1.42 million head were the lowest for July since records began in 1996 (-11% YOY), and marketings (1.62 million head) were also the lowest on record for July. Cattle on feed 150+ and 180+ days remain well above last year, reflecting extended days-on-feed as the industry stretches fewer cattle to cover demand.
3. PACKING CAPACITY CONTINUES TO SHRINK & BORDER/SCREWWORM RISK GROWS: Tyson's Joslin, IL and Eagle Mountain, UT closures, plus the Pasco, WA plant listed for sale, add to previously announced Lexington, NE and JBS Souderton, PA closures — signaling packers are right-sizing shackle space to match a shrinking cattle supply. Meanwhile, new screwworm detections in Ciudad Juárez and Sonora, Mexico (near proposed New Mexico and Arizona reopening ports) cloud the timeline for reopening Mexican cattle imports, even as Douglas, AZ was slated to reopen August 24.
4. OUTLOOK
Ranchers should expect continued volatility rather than a clear directional trend in the near term. Cash and futures markets are digesting policy shocks (beef import waiver, Canada trade retaliation, Mexican border developments) that add noise but don't change the core supply story: cattle numbers are historically tight and will stay that way through year-end. Expect packers to keep gaining leverage as cash volumes thin and plant closures consolidate slaughter capacity — plan for continued packer-favorable price discovery in the short run. On the replacement side, feeder and calf prices are sliding on deferred-delivery pessimism; buyers are wary of forward commitments and health risk in newly weaned calves amid heat stress. Corn's move above $5 (nearby) on a smaller-than-expected crop adds further pressure to feeding economics. Any Mexican cattle imports this fall are likely to be modest — Dr. Derrell Peel estimates roughly 150,000 head by year-end, weighted toward lightweight feeders — meaning any near-term supply relief will be limited and gradual. Bottom line: fundamentals still favor cow-calf producers holding cattle, but expect a bumpy, policy-driven ride through the fall marketing season.
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For more detailed information or specific market data, please contact your local extension office or market analyst.