DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
September 18, 2026
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1. MARKET SENTIMENT: NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH (5/10)
Cash cattle remains firm — last week's national average of $222.82 was up $3.76 from the prior week, and this week's early trade in the north ($222-223 live, $350-355 dressed) is holding steady despite a rough few sessions in the futures pits. That divergence is the story of the week: fundamentals (tight fed supplies, strong carcass weights, good packer margins) support cash, while futures are getting hit by a mix of screwworm-port-reopening headlines, pre-COF positioning, and broader macro jitters (equities down sharply Wednesday, Fed rate hike). Feeder futures are underperforming live cattle as traders price in additional Mexican cattle supply. Today's Cattle on Feed report is the swing factor for next week's tone.
2. KEY PRICE TRENDS
- Live Cattle Futures: October settled 218.45 (-2.25), December 220.20 (-3.15) — sharp pullback from a one-month high of 222.825 earlier in the week, triggered largely by news the Santa Teresa, NM port will reopen to Mexican cattle next week.
- Feeder Cattle Futures: October 329.65 (-4.20), November lost another 3.875 to 328.90 after hitting a five-week high — deferred contracts are absorbing the bulk of the pressure from expanded Mexican import expectations.
- Cash Fed Cattle: North $222-223 live / $350-355 dressed, steady with last week. South: no reported sales. Weekly average $222.82, up $3.76 week-over-week.
- Boxed Beef: Choice trading in the $375-376 range, Select mid-$354s; Choice/Select spread near $22 — still well under year-ago cutout levels, but stable.
- CME Feeder Cattle Index: 342.74 (+1.16) as of Sept. 15 — well off the June 26 historical high of 381.86.
- Carcass weights: 952 lbs, up 3 lbs week-over-week and 20 lbs heavier than a year ago; Quality grade at 87.8% (near historic highs).
- Consumer prices: Beef/veal down 1.0% monthly but still +5.9% year-over-year (a deceleration from July's +9.4%). Ground beef hit a new all-time retail high of $7.158/lb, up 0.6% monthly and 7.2% annually.
- Grains: December corn 5.3450 (-0.0125); WASDE raised the season-average corn price forecast to $4.80/bu on smaller 2026/27 production. Corn basis in Guymon, OK near +$1.00 December.
3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS
1. SANTA TERESA, NM PORT REOPENING SET FOR SEPT. 24 — USDA Secretary Rollins confirmed the department is preparing to reopen this key crossing (43% of total Mexican cattle imports) next week, with an initial cap of 750 head/day. Rollins toured the facility Sept. 17. This single headline drove Wednesday's steep futures selloff, especially in deferred feeder contracts, as the market discounts for a meaningfully larger flow of Mexican feeder cattle. Full capacity at Santa Teresa could eventually reach 500,000-700,000 head annually. Screwworm case counts remain flat at 49 total (2 active: one dog, one horse), supporting the phased-reopening plan.
2. USDA CATTLE ON FEED REPORT DUE TODAY (SEPT. 18) — Trade estimates point to On Feed at 101.7% of last year (11.268 million head), which would mark the fifth straight month above year-ago levels. August Placements are expected at 96.7% and Marketings at 96.0% of last year. A report in line with estimates would reinforce the "smaller placements, tight future supply" narrative that has been cash-supportive even as futures wobble.
3. TRUMP BEEF IMPORT EXPANSION CONTINUES TO STIR POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC DEBATE — The additional 300,000 MT (661 million lbs) of lower-tariff lean beef access is rolling out in three installments (Sept. 1, Oct. 1, Oct. 31) and has triggered real backlash in Florida cattle country, with GOP Rep. Kat Cammack warning of rancher turnout risk. Economist analysis (Peel, OSU) suggests the real-world impact will be more muted than headlines imply — imported beef is overwhelmingly a food-service/ground-beef ingredient (68% of imports are lean trimmings, already 39% of total ground beef supply), and retail hamburger prices are unlikely to move much. Still, cow slaughter values remain a watch item as cheaper imported trimmings compete with domestic cow beef in the grind.
4. OUTLOOK
Expect cash cattle to hold steady-to-firm in the near term as packers, having clawed back to modest profitability after weeks of losses, keep bidding to protect margins and fill positive-margin slaughter schedules. Slaughter volumes remain below year-ago levels, and fed supplies stay historically tight through year-end — a structural support for cash even as futures wrestle with headline risk. Watch today's COF report closely: numbers in line with (or below) trade estimates would reinforce tight supply optimism, while a surprise on placements could add to the feeder futures weakness already triggered by the Mexican port news.
The Santa Teresa reopening is the biggest near-term wildcard for feeder cattle values — more supply optionality for stocker/feedlot operators, but also a source of competitive pressure on Southern Plains feeder prices as volumes ramp. Reopening is conditional and can be paused if screwworm risk resurfaces, so don't expect an immediate flood of cattle.
Drought remains a genuine concern: flash drought is intensifying across Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and now spreading into the Southeast, with pasture/range conditions at just 19% good-to-excellent (vs. 35% a year ago). Combined with a wide ($50 cwt) weaned/unweaned calf spread and a below-normal feeder marketing pace (down 30.7% vs. the 3-year average for the week ending 9/5), fall grazing and stocker demand will hinge on rain showing up in the Southern Plains wheat belt in the coming weeks.
Longer term, ranchers should note USDA's own September WASDE lowered cattle price forecasts for Q3/Q4 2026 and through 2027 on softer packer demand — a signal that the currently favorable cash environment may not be permanent. Combine that with rising input costs (Fed signaling two more rate hikes this year, higher energy/fertilizer costs, corn price forecast raised to $4.80/bu) and it's a good time to lock in margins where possible rather than assume today's firm cash market extends indefinitely.
September 18, 2026
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
1. MARKET SENTIMENT: NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH (5/10)
Cash cattle remains firm — last week's national average of $222.82 was up $3.76 from the prior week, and this week's early trade in the north ($222-223 live, $350-355 dressed) is holding steady despite a rough few sessions in the futures pits. That divergence is the story of the week: fundamentals (tight fed supplies, strong carcass weights, good packer margins) support cash, while futures are getting hit by a mix of screwworm-port-reopening headlines, pre-COF positioning, and broader macro jitters (equities down sharply Wednesday, Fed rate hike). Feeder futures are underperforming live cattle as traders price in additional Mexican cattle supply. Today's Cattle on Feed report is the swing factor for next week's tone.
2. KEY PRICE TRENDS
- Live Cattle Futures: October settled 218.45 (-2.25), December 220.20 (-3.15) — sharp pullback from a one-month high of 222.825 earlier in the week, triggered largely by news the Santa Teresa, NM port will reopen to Mexican cattle next week.
- Feeder Cattle Futures: October 329.65 (-4.20), November lost another 3.875 to 328.90 after hitting a five-week high — deferred contracts are absorbing the bulk of the pressure from expanded Mexican import expectations.
- Cash Fed Cattle: North $222-223 live / $350-355 dressed, steady with last week. South: no reported sales. Weekly average $222.82, up $3.76 week-over-week.
- Boxed Beef: Choice trading in the $375-376 range, Select mid-$354s; Choice/Select spread near $22 — still well under year-ago cutout levels, but stable.
- CME Feeder Cattle Index: 342.74 (+1.16) as of Sept. 15 — well off the June 26 historical high of 381.86.
- Carcass weights: 952 lbs, up 3 lbs week-over-week and 20 lbs heavier than a year ago; Quality grade at 87.8% (near historic highs).
- Consumer prices: Beef/veal down 1.0% monthly but still +5.9% year-over-year (a deceleration from July's +9.4%). Ground beef hit a new all-time retail high of $7.158/lb, up 0.6% monthly and 7.2% annually.
- Grains: December corn 5.3450 (-0.0125); WASDE raised the season-average corn price forecast to $4.80/bu on smaller 2026/27 production. Corn basis in Guymon, OK near +$1.00 December.
3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS
1. SANTA TERESA, NM PORT REOPENING SET FOR SEPT. 24 — USDA Secretary Rollins confirmed the department is preparing to reopen this key crossing (43% of total Mexican cattle imports) next week, with an initial cap of 750 head/day. Rollins toured the facility Sept. 17. This single headline drove Wednesday's steep futures selloff, especially in deferred feeder contracts, as the market discounts for a meaningfully larger flow of Mexican feeder cattle. Full capacity at Santa Teresa could eventually reach 500,000-700,000 head annually. Screwworm case counts remain flat at 49 total (2 active: one dog, one horse), supporting the phased-reopening plan.
2. USDA CATTLE ON FEED REPORT DUE TODAY (SEPT. 18) — Trade estimates point to On Feed at 101.7% of last year (11.268 million head), which would mark the fifth straight month above year-ago levels. August Placements are expected at 96.7% and Marketings at 96.0% of last year. A report in line with estimates would reinforce the "smaller placements, tight future supply" narrative that has been cash-supportive even as futures wobble.
3. TRUMP BEEF IMPORT EXPANSION CONTINUES TO STIR POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC DEBATE — The additional 300,000 MT (661 million lbs) of lower-tariff lean beef access is rolling out in three installments (Sept. 1, Oct. 1, Oct. 31) and has triggered real backlash in Florida cattle country, with GOP Rep. Kat Cammack warning of rancher turnout risk. Economist analysis (Peel, OSU) suggests the real-world impact will be more muted than headlines imply — imported beef is overwhelmingly a food-service/ground-beef ingredient (68% of imports are lean trimmings, already 39% of total ground beef supply), and retail hamburger prices are unlikely to move much. Still, cow slaughter values remain a watch item as cheaper imported trimmings compete with domestic cow beef in the grind.
4. OUTLOOK
Expect cash cattle to hold steady-to-firm in the near term as packers, having clawed back to modest profitability after weeks of losses, keep bidding to protect margins and fill positive-margin slaughter schedules. Slaughter volumes remain below year-ago levels, and fed supplies stay historically tight through year-end — a structural support for cash even as futures wrestle with headline risk. Watch today's COF report closely: numbers in line with (or below) trade estimates would reinforce tight supply optimism, while a surprise on placements could add to the feeder futures weakness already triggered by the Mexican port news.
The Santa Teresa reopening is the biggest near-term wildcard for feeder cattle values — more supply optionality for stocker/feedlot operators, but also a source of competitive pressure on Southern Plains feeder prices as volumes ramp. Reopening is conditional and can be paused if screwworm risk resurfaces, so don't expect an immediate flood of cattle.
Drought remains a genuine concern: flash drought is intensifying across Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and now spreading into the Southeast, with pasture/range conditions at just 19% good-to-excellent (vs. 35% a year ago). Combined with a wide ($50 cwt) weaned/unweaned calf spread and a below-normal feeder marketing pace (down 30.7% vs. the 3-year average for the week ending 9/5), fall grazing and stocker demand will hinge on rain showing up in the Southern Plains wheat belt in the coming weeks.
Longer term, ranchers should note USDA's own September WASDE lowered cattle price forecasts for Q3/Q4 2026 and through 2027 on softer packer demand — a signal that the currently favorable cash environment may not be permanent. Combine that with rising input costs (Fed signaling two more rate hikes this year, higher energy/fertilizer costs, corn price forecast raised to $4.80/bu) and it's a good time to lock in margins where possible rather than assume today's firm cash market extends indefinitely.
For more detailed information or specific market data, please contact your local extension office or market analyst.