DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
October 1, 2026
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1. MARKET SENTIMENT: MODERATELY BULLISH (7 out of 10)
Supplies are structurally tight and boxed beef is firming. Feeder placements are at record lows, and packers are working to recover from last week's slaughter shortfall. Two things hold the score back. Futures are still about 10% below their 60-day high, and the ICE-related labor disruption in Kansas is not fully resolved. Calf prices at auction are also softening seasonally. The TCR Cattle Market Index rose 1.02% on the day and 1.20% over 10 days, but it is still down 5.20% over 60 days.
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2. KEY PRICE TRENDS
Fed cattle (cash)
- Trade this week has been thin. Only a few early dressed deals have been reported in Nebraska, at $348-$350, which is not enough for a real market test.
- Last week's established trade was live $220-$223 in the north and $226 in the south. Dressed trade was $345-$350 in the north.
- Formula net dressed price was $360.21 on 17,000 head at a 952 lb average weight.
Futures (Tuesday settlements)
- Live cattle: October 217.22 (-0.23), December 220.80 (unchanged), February 222.92 (-0.03).
- Feeder cattle: October 333.65 (+1.75), November 330.90 (+1.63), January 323.40 (+1.43).
- Monday was a profit-taking day after last week's rally. December live cattle fell 1.35 cents and October feeders dropped 3.03 cents. Tuesday recovered part of that on better slaughter.
- The CME Feeder Index was 337.77, well below its June 26 high of 381.86.
Boxed beef
- Choice cutout was $382.66 (+$2.18) and Select was $364.48 (+$6.25).
- The Choice/Select spread is $18.18.
- Processors cancelled some orders last week, which created supply-chain problems. Retailers are concerned about continued tightness.
Slaughter
- Last week's total was about 483,000 head. That is 45,000 below the prior week and 75,000 below last year, one of the lowest non-holiday weeks on record.
- Tuesday's kill was 108,000, up from 100,000 a week ago and 95,000 on Monday. Year-ago Tuesday was about 120,500.
- Week-to-date slaughter is 203,000, versus 205,000 at this point last week.
- The Saturday kill will be an important signal of how much of the shortfall packers can recover.
Replacement cattle
- Oklahoma City feeder steers were steady to $3 lower. Steer calves were $5-$15 lower and heifer calves $2-$8 lower.
- OKC West calves over 500 lbs were $5-$10 lower. Quality was noticeably lower, and buyer interest was limited with farmers busy in the fields.
- The spread between weaned and unweaned calves is about $50/cwt and widening. Buyers are wary of health risk and stress.
- Feeder and stocker marketings for the week ending 9/19 were 28.6% below the 3-year average.
Inputs
- December corn was $5.22, nearly unchanged, and 57% of the crop is rated good to excellent versus 66% last year.
- November crude fell $3.58 to $89.02, but diesel costs remain a concern for freight and feed.
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3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS
1) Immigration enforcement in Kansas disrupted slaughter, and a rebound has begun
Immigration agents were active around Dodge City, Liberal and Garden City last week, near plants run by National Beef and Cargill. Many workers stayed home. Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas cattle groups reported delayed shipments of thousands of cattle. Daily kills fell to 87,000-90,000 on Thursday and Friday before recovering to 108,000 Tuesday, in line with pre-disruption levels. Packers' margins improved as they cut cattle bids and boxed beef rose. The risk is that renewed enforcement backs up cattle and weakens cash trade. A normal pace this week would let the market move past the disruption.
2) Feedlot placements hit record lows, and the cow herd may be near its cyclical low
The September Cattle on Feed report showed 11.2 million head on feed, up 1% from last year. August placements fell 9% to the lowest August since the series began in 1996, and marketings fell 3% to the lowest August on record. Derrell Peel (Oklahoma State University) notes that inventories were held up by a record-low marketing rate. The 12-month average rate is 14.1%, which has pushed steer carcass weights up 32 lbs so far in 2026. With placements falling sharply, he expects on-feed totals to drop below year-ago levels soon.
Peel also sees early signs that the beef cow herd is at a cyclical low. Cow culling is at a projected record-low 7.3% in 2026 and heifer slaughter is down 11.3%. However, he expects at most a slight herd increase going into 2027, with more rebuilding momentum after that. August beef production was down 2%, with slaughter down 4% but live weights up 28 lbs to 1,441. Frozen beef stocks were up 5% from last year, which is a modest offset to tight fresh supplies.
3) Trade and policy: US-China tariff cuts, Mexican border reopening, cash market scrutiny
- The US and China each proposed $30 billion in goods for tariff reductions. China's list includes corn, wheat, sorghum, meat and dairy but excludes soybeans. The trade truce was extended to January 10. No timing or size of cuts has been announced.
- The Santa Teresa, NM port of entry reopened last week. It handles more than 43% of Mexican cattle imports. Volumes are expected to build slowly, and bureaucratic hiccups are likely.
- R-CALF is pushing USDA and DOJ for Packers and Stockyards Act enforcement. The negotiated cash share of purchases has fallen from 52.1% in 2005 to 17.8% in 2025, and cash price reports were withheld in three of five regions for the week ending Sept. 13.
- On the political side, Secretary Rollins' recent "eat chicken or pork" comments on beef prices are drawing industry criticism.
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4. OUTLOOK
- Fed cattle: The Saturday kill and next week's pace will largely set direction. If packers sustain 105,000+ head per day, expect cash trade to firm toward last week's $220-$223 live and $345-$355 dressed levels. A repeat of enforcement-driven disruptions would back up cattle and pressure cash bids, even as boxed beef rises. Fed supplies should stay tight through year-end.
- Boxed beef: Support looks likely near term as retailers rebuild inventories and fall features begin. Heavy carcasses and weak lean-trim economics keep grinding beef imports high.
- Feeders and calves: The fall run is the largest marketing period for replacement cattle. Rains across the southern Plains are improving wheat pasture prospects, which should support stocker demand once forage is established. Until then, expect uneven calf prices, with unweaned and lower-quality calves discounted heavily. Cattle scratched or passed out at video auctions may come back to market if feeder
October 1, 2026
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
1. MARKET SENTIMENT: MODERATELY BULLISH (7 out of 10)
Supplies are structurally tight and boxed beef is firming. Feeder placements are at record lows, and packers are working to recover from last week's slaughter shortfall. Two things hold the score back. Futures are still about 10% below their 60-day high, and the ICE-related labor disruption in Kansas is not fully resolved. Calf prices at auction are also softening seasonally. The TCR Cattle Market Index rose 1.02% on the day and 1.20% over 10 days, but it is still down 5.20% over 60 days.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
2. KEY PRICE TRENDS
Fed cattle (cash)
- Trade this week has been thin. Only a few early dressed deals have been reported in Nebraska, at $348-$350, which is not enough for a real market test.
- Last week's established trade was live $220-$223 in the north and $226 in the south. Dressed trade was $345-$350 in the north.
- Formula net dressed price was $360.21 on 17,000 head at a 952 lb average weight.
Futures (Tuesday settlements)
- Live cattle: October 217.22 (-0.23), December 220.80 (unchanged), February 222.92 (-0.03).
- Feeder cattle: October 333.65 (+1.75), November 330.90 (+1.63), January 323.40 (+1.43).
- Monday was a profit-taking day after last week's rally. December live cattle fell 1.35 cents and October feeders dropped 3.03 cents. Tuesday recovered part of that on better slaughter.
- The CME Feeder Index was 337.77, well below its June 26 high of 381.86.
Boxed beef
- Choice cutout was $382.66 (+$2.18) and Select was $364.48 (+$6.25).
- The Choice/Select spread is $18.18.
- Processors cancelled some orders last week, which created supply-chain problems. Retailers are concerned about continued tightness.
Slaughter
- Last week's total was about 483,000 head. That is 45,000 below the prior week and 75,000 below last year, one of the lowest non-holiday weeks on record.
- Tuesday's kill was 108,000, up from 100,000 a week ago and 95,000 on Monday. Year-ago Tuesday was about 120,500.
- Week-to-date slaughter is 203,000, versus 205,000 at this point last week.
- The Saturday kill will be an important signal of how much of the shortfall packers can recover.
Replacement cattle
- Oklahoma City feeder steers were steady to $3 lower. Steer calves were $5-$15 lower and heifer calves $2-$8 lower.
- OKC West calves over 500 lbs were $5-$10 lower. Quality was noticeably lower, and buyer interest was limited with farmers busy in the fields.
- The spread between weaned and unweaned calves is about $50/cwt and widening. Buyers are wary of health risk and stress.
- Feeder and stocker marketings for the week ending 9/19 were 28.6% below the 3-year average.
Inputs
- December corn was $5.22, nearly unchanged, and 57% of the crop is rated good to excellent versus 66% last year.
- November crude fell $3.58 to $89.02, but diesel costs remain a concern for freight and feed.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS
1) Immigration enforcement in Kansas disrupted slaughter, and a rebound has begun
Immigration agents were active around Dodge City, Liberal and Garden City last week, near plants run by National Beef and Cargill. Many workers stayed home. Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas cattle groups reported delayed shipments of thousands of cattle. Daily kills fell to 87,000-90,000 on Thursday and Friday before recovering to 108,000 Tuesday, in line with pre-disruption levels. Packers' margins improved as they cut cattle bids and boxed beef rose. The risk is that renewed enforcement backs up cattle and weakens cash trade. A normal pace this week would let the market move past the disruption.
2) Feedlot placements hit record lows, and the cow herd may be near its cyclical low
The September Cattle on Feed report showed 11.2 million head on feed, up 1% from last year. August placements fell 9% to the lowest August since the series began in 1996, and marketings fell 3% to the lowest August on record. Derrell Peel (Oklahoma State University) notes that inventories were held up by a record-low marketing rate. The 12-month average rate is 14.1%, which has pushed steer carcass weights up 32 lbs so far in 2026. With placements falling sharply, he expects on-feed totals to drop below year-ago levels soon.
Peel also sees early signs that the beef cow herd is at a cyclical low. Cow culling is at a projected record-low 7.3% in 2026 and heifer slaughter is down 11.3%. However, he expects at most a slight herd increase going into 2027, with more rebuilding momentum after that. August beef production was down 2%, with slaughter down 4% but live weights up 28 lbs to 1,441. Frozen beef stocks were up 5% from last year, which is a modest offset to tight fresh supplies.
3) Trade and policy: US-China tariff cuts, Mexican border reopening, cash market scrutiny
- The US and China each proposed $30 billion in goods for tariff reductions. China's list includes corn, wheat, sorghum, meat and dairy but excludes soybeans. The trade truce was extended to January 10. No timing or size of cuts has been announced.
- The Santa Teresa, NM port of entry reopened last week. It handles more than 43% of Mexican cattle imports. Volumes are expected to build slowly, and bureaucratic hiccups are likely.
- R-CALF is pushing USDA and DOJ for Packers and Stockyards Act enforcement. The negotiated cash share of purchases has fallen from 52.1% in 2005 to 17.8% in 2025, and cash price reports were withheld in three of five regions for the week ending Sept. 13.
- On the political side, Secretary Rollins' recent "eat chicken or pork" comments on beef prices are drawing industry criticism.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
4. OUTLOOK
- Fed cattle: The Saturday kill and next week's pace will largely set direction. If packers sustain 105,000+ head per day, expect cash trade to firm toward last week's $220-$223 live and $345-$355 dressed levels. A repeat of enforcement-driven disruptions would back up cattle and pressure cash bids, even as boxed beef rises. Fed supplies should stay tight through year-end.
- Boxed beef: Support looks likely near term as retailers rebuild inventories and fall features begin. Heavy carcasses and weak lean-trim economics keep grinding beef imports high.
- Feeders and calves: The fall run is the largest marketing period for replacement cattle. Rains across the southern Plains are improving wheat pasture prospects, which should support stocker demand once forage is established. Until then, expect uneven calf prices, with unweaned and lower-quality calves discounted heavily. Cattle scratched or passed out at video auctions may come back to market if feeder
For more detailed information or specific market data, please contact your local extension office or market analyst.