DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
October 2, 2026
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1. MARKET SENTIMENT: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH (6 out of 10)
Futures are firm and packing is normalizing, which supports fed and feeder cattle. Falling boxed beef, weak cash volume, a soft cull cow market and lower calf prices at auction keep this from being a stronger reading. TCR's Cattle Market Index slipped 0.73% on the day. It is still up 5.48% over 10 days but down 5.45% over 60 days and 9.12% below its 60-day high.
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2. KEY PRICE TRENDS
Futures (Thursday settles)
- November feeders: 336.350, up 2.050. Feeders have gained for three sessions (330.900 Tuesday, 334.300 Wednesday).
- December live cattle: 223.175, up 0.475.
- October live cattle: 219.30, up 0.63.
- CME Feeder Index: 338.97, up 0.95. The record high is 381.86 (6/26/26).
- December corn: 5.0225, up 0.015, after trading lower earlier in the session, which helped feeders.
Cash fed cattle
- Light trade developed at $221 live in the north and $226 in the south. The spread between regions has widened.
- USDA shows Nebraska live at mostly $220, down $2.00 from last week, and the Western Cornbelt steady to $2.00 lower at $218-$220.
- Dressed trade was $345-$350, with Nebraska $3-$5 lower at $345.
- Formula net dressed steers and heifers averaged $359.08 on 947 lb carcasses.
- Negotiated volume was 19,539 head, up from 3,498 a week ago.
Boxed beef
- Choice fell $6.00 to $376.79 and Select fell $7.70 to $352.89. The Choice/Select spread is $23.90.
- Choice had risen to $382.66 earlier in the week, so Thursday's drop gave back those gains.
- Cutter cow cutout fell $8.16 to $315.94.
Slaughter and packer margins
- Thursday slaughter was 109,000 head, versus 90,000 a week ago and 112,197 a year ago.
- Week-to-date slaughter is 410,000, versus 389,000 last week and 462,479 last year.
- Last week's total was a very low 483,000 head, one of the lowest non-holiday weeks on record. Workers stayed home in southwest Kansas over fears of immigration enforcement.
- Packer margins were $126.45 per head, down from $130.65 Wednesday but well above $89.55 a week ago.
Replacement cattle
- Oklahoma City: feeder steers were steady to $3 lower and steer calves $5-$15 lower. Heifer calves were $2-$8 lower.
- OKC West: heifer calves under 500 lbs were $15-$20 lower. Quality was lower, 69% of the offering was unweaned, and buyer interest was limited by fieldwork and rain forecasts.
- The spread between weaned and unweaned calves is about $50/cwt and widening.
- Cull cows in Kentucky are down more than $30/cwt from summer highs.
Other markets
- Lean hogs: December 68.925, down 0.50, on poor pork demand.
- Crude oil: 93.29, up 2.87. Rising diesel adds cost at every stage of the beef chain.
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3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS
A. Packing is recovering, but cash trade is still thin.
Daily slaughter has returned to roughly 98,000-109,000 head after last week's immigration-related disruption. Analysts say packing is the biggest factor in the market right now. If it stays near normal, the market can move past this disruption. Feedlots are holding out for higher prices, but weaker boxed beef is a concern. Cash trading volume has been very light. Fed supplies should stay tight through year-end, despite this one week of lost harvest.
B. The beef import policy fight is hurting the lower end of the cattle market.
The American Farm Bureau Federation is urging the President to roll back plans to import an additional 300,000 metric tons of beef. Its analysis of 41 retail locations found ground beef prices down only 16 cents per pound since Labor Day, with most unchanged. Ranchers report losses of $300-$400 per head. Univ. of Kentucky economist Kenny Burdine ties the cull cow slump to the import announcement. About 37,000 MT had entered under the new quota in September, well below the 100,000 MT cap. He also points to rising cow slaughter, drought, and seasonal weakness in hamburger demand. He finds it hard to be bullish on cull cows into winter.
C. Corn stocks are bigger, so feed costs are lower.
USDA's Grain Stocks report showed Sept. 1 corn stocks at 2.10 billion bushels, up 35% from last year. Corn has weakened for several days, which supports feeder cattle and feedlot margins. Some are questioning whether the report leaked ahead of release. Only 57% of the corn crop is rated good to excellent, versus 66% last year. Pasture and range conditions are poor, with 19% good to excellent versus 32% last year.
Also on the radar:
- Santa Teresa, NM, the busiest livestock port with Mexico, has reopened. Volumes will be slow to return. The last screwworm case in cattle was July 30, but the case count is up to 50 after a horse in New Mexico tested positive.
- The Justice Department is objecting to the $202 million meat processor wage-fixing settlements. A fairness hearing is set for November 13.
- Negotiated cash trade fell from 52.1% of purchases in 2005 to 17.8% in 2025 (R-CALF analysis). Cash prices for three of five reporting regions were withheld for confidentiality in the week ending Sept. 13.
- Cold storage showed beef stocks up 5% from last year as of Aug. 31. August beef production was down 2%, with cattle slaughter down 4% and live weights up 28 lbs.
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4. OUTLOOK
Fed cattle: The Saturday cash number is the key signal. Packers are making good margins and slaughter is recovering, so expect pressure on cash and boxed beef near term. Retail adjustments after last week's shortfall also need to work through. Tight fed supplies and carcass weights of 952 lbs, up 12 lbs from last year, remain the longer-term backdrop. Prime and heavy carcasses are being marketed at a discount in some retail cases.
Feeders and calves: Futures are supported by cheaper corn and recovering packing. Auction markets are weaker on seasonally poor-quality, unweaned calves, and the weaned/unweaned spread is a good reason to precondition and wean if possible. Cattle passed out of video auctions may return if prices rise. Wheat-pasture buyers are waiting on forage prospects, and southern Plains rains have been helpful.
Cull cows: Expect continued softness through the fourth quarter, with seasonally higher cow slaughter, drought, and import competition in lean trim.
Longer term: Oklahoma State's Derrell Peel notes signs that the beef cow herd may be near a cyclical low after seven years of liquidation. Beef cow culling is at a projected record low of 7.3%, which suggests slaughter holds steady or rises in 2027 without significant heifer retention. That is a tight-supply, supportive backdrop, but it is a story for 2027, not this month.
Watch list: Saturday cash trade, daily slaughter above 100,000 head, the Choice cutout direction, further beef import and quota news, immigration enforcement at packing plants, and rain in the southern Plains.
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October 2, 2026
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1. MARKET SENTIMENT: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH (6 out of 10)
Futures are firm and packing is normalizing, which supports fed and feeder cattle. Falling boxed beef, weak cash volume, a soft cull cow market and lower calf prices at auction keep this from being a stronger reading. TCR's Cattle Market Index slipped 0.73% on the day. It is still up 5.48% over 10 days but down 5.45% over 60 days and 9.12% below its 60-day high.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
2. KEY PRICE TRENDS
Futures (Thursday settles)
- November feeders: 336.350, up 2.050. Feeders have gained for three sessions (330.900 Tuesday, 334.300 Wednesday).
- December live cattle: 223.175, up 0.475.
- October live cattle: 219.30, up 0.63.
- CME Feeder Index: 338.97, up 0.95. The record high is 381.86 (6/26/26).
- December corn: 5.0225, up 0.015, after trading lower earlier in the session, which helped feeders.
Cash fed cattle
- Light trade developed at $221 live in the north and $226 in the south. The spread between regions has widened.
- USDA shows Nebraska live at mostly $220, down $2.00 from last week, and the Western Cornbelt steady to $2.00 lower at $218-$220.
- Dressed trade was $345-$350, with Nebraska $3-$5 lower at $345.
- Formula net dressed steers and heifers averaged $359.08 on 947 lb carcasses.
- Negotiated volume was 19,539 head, up from 3,498 a week ago.
Boxed beef
- Choice fell $6.00 to $376.79 and Select fell $7.70 to $352.89. The Choice/Select spread is $23.90.
- Choice had risen to $382.66 earlier in the week, so Thursday's drop gave back those gains.
- Cutter cow cutout fell $8.16 to $315.94.
Slaughter and packer margins
- Thursday slaughter was 109,000 head, versus 90,000 a week ago and 112,197 a year ago.
- Week-to-date slaughter is 410,000, versus 389,000 last week and 462,479 last year.
- Last week's total was a very low 483,000 head, one of the lowest non-holiday weeks on record. Workers stayed home in southwest Kansas over fears of immigration enforcement.
- Packer margins were $126.45 per head, down from $130.65 Wednesday but well above $89.55 a week ago.
Replacement cattle
- Oklahoma City: feeder steers were steady to $3 lower and steer calves $5-$15 lower. Heifer calves were $2-$8 lower.
- OKC West: heifer calves under 500 lbs were $15-$20 lower. Quality was lower, 69% of the offering was unweaned, and buyer interest was limited by fieldwork and rain forecasts.
- The spread between weaned and unweaned calves is about $50/cwt and widening.
- Cull cows in Kentucky are down more than $30/cwt from summer highs.
Other markets
- Lean hogs: December 68.925, down 0.50, on poor pork demand.
- Crude oil: 93.29, up 2.87. Rising diesel adds cost at every stage of the beef chain.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS
A. Packing is recovering, but cash trade is still thin.
Daily slaughter has returned to roughly 98,000-109,000 head after last week's immigration-related disruption. Analysts say packing is the biggest factor in the market right now. If it stays near normal, the market can move past this disruption. Feedlots are holding out for higher prices, but weaker boxed beef is a concern. Cash trading volume has been very light. Fed supplies should stay tight through year-end, despite this one week of lost harvest.
B. The beef import policy fight is hurting the lower end of the cattle market.
The American Farm Bureau Federation is urging the President to roll back plans to import an additional 300,000 metric tons of beef. Its analysis of 41 retail locations found ground beef prices down only 16 cents per pound since Labor Day, with most unchanged. Ranchers report losses of $300-$400 per head. Univ. of Kentucky economist Kenny Burdine ties the cull cow slump to the import announcement. About 37,000 MT had entered under the new quota in September, well below the 100,000 MT cap. He also points to rising cow slaughter, drought, and seasonal weakness in hamburger demand. He finds it hard to be bullish on cull cows into winter.
C. Corn stocks are bigger, so feed costs are lower.
USDA's Grain Stocks report showed Sept. 1 corn stocks at 2.10 billion bushels, up 35% from last year. Corn has weakened for several days, which supports feeder cattle and feedlot margins. Some are questioning whether the report leaked ahead of release. Only 57% of the corn crop is rated good to excellent, versus 66% last year. Pasture and range conditions are poor, with 19% good to excellent versus 32% last year.
Also on the radar:
- Santa Teresa, NM, the busiest livestock port with Mexico, has reopened. Volumes will be slow to return. The last screwworm case in cattle was July 30, but the case count is up to 50 after a horse in New Mexico tested positive.
- The Justice Department is objecting to the $202 million meat processor wage-fixing settlements. A fairness hearing is set for November 13.
- Negotiated cash trade fell from 52.1% of purchases in 2005 to 17.8% in 2025 (R-CALF analysis). Cash prices for three of five reporting regions were withheld for confidentiality in the week ending Sept. 13.
- Cold storage showed beef stocks up 5% from last year as of Aug. 31. August beef production was down 2%, with cattle slaughter down 4% and live weights up 28 lbs.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
4. OUTLOOK
Fed cattle: The Saturday cash number is the key signal. Packers are making good margins and slaughter is recovering, so expect pressure on cash and boxed beef near term. Retail adjustments after last week's shortfall also need to work through. Tight fed supplies and carcass weights of 952 lbs, up 12 lbs from last year, remain the longer-term backdrop. Prime and heavy carcasses are being marketed at a discount in some retail cases.
Feeders and calves: Futures are supported by cheaper corn and recovering packing. Auction markets are weaker on seasonally poor-quality, unweaned calves, and the weaned/unweaned spread is a good reason to precondition and wean if possible. Cattle passed out of video auctions may return if prices rise. Wheat-pasture buyers are waiting on forage prospects, and southern Plains rains have been helpful.
Cull cows: Expect continued softness through the fourth quarter, with seasonally higher cow slaughter, drought, and import competition in lean trim.
Longer term: Oklahoma State's Derrell Peel notes signs that the beef cow herd may be near a cyclical low after seven years of liquidation. Beef cow culling is at a projected record low of 7.3%, which suggests slaughter holds steady or rises in 2027 without significant heifer retention. That is a tight-supply, supportive backdrop, but it is a story for 2027, not this month.
Watch list: Saturday cash trade, daily slaughter above 100,000 head, the Choice cutout direction, further beef import and quota news, immigration enforcement at packing plants, and rain in the southern Plains.
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For more detailed information or specific market data, please contact your local extension office or market analyst.