DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
October 3, 2026 (data through Friday's close, October 2)
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1. MARKET SENTIMENT: CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH (4 out of 10)
Futures gave back Thursday's gains on Friday. Boxed beef is soft, cash trade is thin, and cull cow and calf markets are under pressure. Supporting factors are tight fed supplies, strong packer margins, cheaper corn, and early signs the cow herd is bottoming. TCR's Cattle Market Index fell 1.72% Friday. It is up 0.68% over 10 days but down 9.20% over 60 days and 10.68% below its 60-day high.
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2. KEY PRICE TRENDS
Futures (Friday settlements):
- Oct live cattle: 218.85 (-0.45)
- Dec live cattle: 221.47 (-1.70)
- Feb live cattle: 223.15 (-2.30)
- Oct feeders: 334.62 (-4.25)
- Nov feeders: 331.15 (-5.20)
- Jan feeders: 324.55 (-5.15)
- CME Feeder Index: 336.84 (-2.13), about 12% below the June 26 record of 381.86.
- Thursday had been a rally day. Dec live cattle rose 0.475 and Nov feeders rose 2.05, helped by a firmer cash tone and lower corn.
Cash fed cattle:
- Nebraska live trade was 220-222 Thursday. Dressed trade was 345.
- Western Cornbelt live trade was 218-220. Dressed was 345-350.
- Friday's trade was light, with no adequate market test.
- Southern live sales were reported mostly near 226. The widening north-south spread should pull cattle movement between regions.
- Formula net price was 361.15 on a 940-lb average weight.
- Negotiated cash volume remains thin. USDA withheld cash price reports for 3 of 5 regions for the week ending Sept. 13.
Boxed beef:
- Friday Choice was 374.19 (-2.60) and Select was 354.49 (+1.60). The spread was 23.90.
- Thursday Choice dropped $6.00. Box prices remain well below last year.
- The cutter cow cutout was flat at 315.95.
Slaughter and packer margins:
- Friday slaughter was 100,000 head, versus 87,000 a week ago and 93,072 a year ago.
- Week-to-date slaughter was 510,000, versus 476,000 last week and 555,551 last year.
- Packers earned an estimated $126.45 per head Thursday, versus $89.55 a week ago. Processors have been profitable since July, the longest stretch in several years.
- Carcass weights are 952 lbs, 12 lbs above last year. Quality grade is 87.3% Choice and Prime, near historic highs.
Feeders and calves:
- Oklahoma City feeder steers were steady to $3 lower. Steer calves were $5-15 lower and heifer calves $2-8 lower.
- OKC West calf quality was lower, and buyers left early as farmers were busy planting wheat.
- Feeder and stocker marketings are running 22-29% below the 3-year average.
- October and November are the peak replacement-selling months.
- The spread between weaned and unweaned calves is widening. It can reach $50/cwt, and fall health problems are a risk for unweaned calves.
Inputs and macro:
- Dec corn was 4.9775 (-0.045). USDA put Sept. 1 corn stocks at 2.10 billion bushels, up 35% from last year.
- Crude oil was 91.43. The dollar index was 101.91.
- Equities were firmly higher.
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3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS
A. Slaughter is recovering from the immigration-enforcement disruption, but box beef is not following.
ICE audits and a visible presence at southwest Kansas plants kept workers home last week and cut slaughter. Plant volumes are now back near normal, with weekly slaughter about 548,000 head, up 64,000 from the prior week. That restores packer demand but is pressuring cutout values. Feedlots are still holding out for higher cash prices, and analysts call the cutout weakness a concern. Packer margins are healthy, which gives them room to bid. Fed supplies are expected to stay tight through year-end.
B. The import-driven slump in cull cow and calf values is drawing pushback.
The administration's plan to bring in an additional 300,000 metric tons of beef hit trim-driven markets hardest. Kentucky cull cow prices are down more than $30/cwt from their summer highs. Customs data show about 37,000 MT has entered under the new quota in September, well short of the 100,000 MT cap. Farm Bureau President Zippy Duvall renewed calls to reverse the plan. Farm Bureau tracked 41 retail locations and found prices down only 16 cents per pound on average, while ranchers report losses of $300-400 per head. Beef and dairy cow slaughter is rising, and drought is likely to add to it. The cull cow market looks hard to call bullish heading into winter.
C. Early signs the beef cow herd is bottoming.
Oklahoma State's Derrell Peel notes the beef cow herd was down 0.7% at mid-year, and the culling rate is projected at a record-low 7.3% in 2026, versus a long-run average of 10%. Heifer slaughter is down 11.3%, and replacement heifers rose 100,000 head in the July report. He expects culling to rise in 2027, so heifer retention must increase 6-7% for the herd to stabilize. That would be supportive for calf prices over the longer term but tightens near-term feeder supplies.
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ALSO WORTH WATCHING
- Mexican cattle: The Santa Teresa, NM port reopened Sept. 24. It handles over 43% of Mexican cattle imports. Crossings are normalizing, but rain has caused delays and all Mexican cattle now need RFID tags.
- New World screwworm: There are 50 total confirmed detections. The latest was a horse in Grant County, NM on Sept. 17, and the last cattle case was July 30.
- Beef supplies: August beef production was down 2%, with cattle slaughter down 4% and live weights up 28 lbs to 1,441 lbs. Frozen beef stocks on Aug. 31 were up 5% from last year.
- Price discovery: Negotiated cash fell from 52.1% of purchases in 2005 to 17.8% in 2025. R-CALF is urging Packers and Stockyards Act enforcement.
- Legal: DOJ objected to $202 million in packer wage-fixing settlements, including Tyson, JBS, National Beef and Hormel. A fairness hearing is set for Nov. 13.
- Trade: Japan reopened to Argentine beef after 20 years, and Argentina's agricultural exports to the EU are up 21% since the Mercosur-EU deal took effect. Both add to global competition.
- Consumer
October 3, 2026 (data through Friday's close, October 2)
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1. MARKET SENTIMENT: CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH (4 out of 10)
Futures gave back Thursday's gains on Friday. Boxed beef is soft, cash trade is thin, and cull cow and calf markets are under pressure. Supporting factors are tight fed supplies, strong packer margins, cheaper corn, and early signs the cow herd is bottoming. TCR's Cattle Market Index fell 1.72% Friday. It is up 0.68% over 10 days but down 9.20% over 60 days and 10.68% below its 60-day high.
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2. KEY PRICE TRENDS
Futures (Friday settlements):
- Oct live cattle: 218.85 (-0.45)
- Dec live cattle: 221.47 (-1.70)
- Feb live cattle: 223.15 (-2.30)
- Oct feeders: 334.62 (-4.25)
- Nov feeders: 331.15 (-5.20)
- Jan feeders: 324.55 (-5.15)
- CME Feeder Index: 336.84 (-2.13), about 12% below the June 26 record of 381.86.
- Thursday had been a rally day. Dec live cattle rose 0.475 and Nov feeders rose 2.05, helped by a firmer cash tone and lower corn.
Cash fed cattle:
- Nebraska live trade was 220-222 Thursday. Dressed trade was 345.
- Western Cornbelt live trade was 218-220. Dressed was 345-350.
- Friday's trade was light, with no adequate market test.
- Southern live sales were reported mostly near 226. The widening north-south spread should pull cattle movement between regions.
- Formula net price was 361.15 on a 940-lb average weight.
- Negotiated cash volume remains thin. USDA withheld cash price reports for 3 of 5 regions for the week ending Sept. 13.
Boxed beef:
- Friday Choice was 374.19 (-2.60) and Select was 354.49 (+1.60). The spread was 23.90.
- Thursday Choice dropped $6.00. Box prices remain well below last year.
- The cutter cow cutout was flat at 315.95.
Slaughter and packer margins:
- Friday slaughter was 100,000 head, versus 87,000 a week ago and 93,072 a year ago.
- Week-to-date slaughter was 510,000, versus 476,000 last week and 555,551 last year.
- Packers earned an estimated $126.45 per head Thursday, versus $89.55 a week ago. Processors have been profitable since July, the longest stretch in several years.
- Carcass weights are 952 lbs, 12 lbs above last year. Quality grade is 87.3% Choice and Prime, near historic highs.
Feeders and calves:
- Oklahoma City feeder steers were steady to $3 lower. Steer calves were $5-15 lower and heifer calves $2-8 lower.
- OKC West calf quality was lower, and buyers left early as farmers were busy planting wheat.
- Feeder and stocker marketings are running 22-29% below the 3-year average.
- October and November are the peak replacement-selling months.
- The spread between weaned and unweaned calves is widening. It can reach $50/cwt, and fall health problems are a risk for unweaned calves.
Inputs and macro:
- Dec corn was 4.9775 (-0.045). USDA put Sept. 1 corn stocks at 2.10 billion bushels, up 35% from last year.
- Crude oil was 91.43. The dollar index was 101.91.
- Equities were firmly higher.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS
A. Slaughter is recovering from the immigration-enforcement disruption, but box beef is not following.
ICE audits and a visible presence at southwest Kansas plants kept workers home last week and cut slaughter. Plant volumes are now back near normal, with weekly slaughter about 548,000 head, up 64,000 from the prior week. That restores packer demand but is pressuring cutout values. Feedlots are still holding out for higher cash prices, and analysts call the cutout weakness a concern. Packer margins are healthy, which gives them room to bid. Fed supplies are expected to stay tight through year-end.
B. The import-driven slump in cull cow and calf values is drawing pushback.
The administration's plan to bring in an additional 300,000 metric tons of beef hit trim-driven markets hardest. Kentucky cull cow prices are down more than $30/cwt from their summer highs. Customs data show about 37,000 MT has entered under the new quota in September, well short of the 100,000 MT cap. Farm Bureau President Zippy Duvall renewed calls to reverse the plan. Farm Bureau tracked 41 retail locations and found prices down only 16 cents per pound on average, while ranchers report losses of $300-400 per head. Beef and dairy cow slaughter is rising, and drought is likely to add to it. The cull cow market looks hard to call bullish heading into winter.
C. Early signs the beef cow herd is bottoming.
Oklahoma State's Derrell Peel notes the beef cow herd was down 0.7% at mid-year, and the culling rate is projected at a record-low 7.3% in 2026, versus a long-run average of 10%. Heifer slaughter is down 11.3%, and replacement heifers rose 100,000 head in the July report. He expects culling to rise in 2027, so heifer retention must increase 6-7% for the herd to stabilize. That would be supportive for calf prices over the longer term but tightens near-term feeder supplies.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
ALSO WORTH WATCHING
- Mexican cattle: The Santa Teresa, NM port reopened Sept. 24. It handles over 43% of Mexican cattle imports. Crossings are normalizing, but rain has caused delays and all Mexican cattle now need RFID tags.
- New World screwworm: There are 50 total confirmed detections. The latest was a horse in Grant County, NM on Sept. 17, and the last cattle case was July 30.
- Beef supplies: August beef production was down 2%, with cattle slaughter down 4% and live weights up 28 lbs to 1,441 lbs. Frozen beef stocks on Aug. 31 were up 5% from last year.
- Price discovery: Negotiated cash fell from 52.1% of purchases in 2005 to 17.8% in 2025. R-CALF is urging Packers and Stockyards Act enforcement.
- Legal: DOJ objected to $202 million in packer wage-fixing settlements, including Tyson, JBS, National Beef and Hormel. A fairness hearing is set for Nov. 13.
- Trade: Japan reopened to Argentine beef after 20 years, and Argentina's agricultural exports to the EU are up 21% since the Mercosur-EU deal took effect. Both add to global competition.
- Consumer
For more detailed information or specific market data, please contact your local extension office or market analyst.