DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
October 6, 2026
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1. MARKET SENTIMENT: NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH SHORT TERM, BULLISH STRUCTURALLY (5/10)
Cash fed cattle are holding steady and boxed beef is firming. Futures keep sliding, though, and prices remain well below June highs. Packers failed to push cash lower, which is constructive. Futures are pricing in a weaker path, and feeders are under pressure. Tight cattle supplies are the long-term support.
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2. KEY PRICE TRENDS
Fed cash cattle
- Live prices were mostly steady for the third straight week. Nebraska and the Western Cornbelt traded around $220-$222, and the South traded around $225-$226. Dressed trade was $345-$350.
- Monday's negotiated cash trade was inactive, with only 11 head confirmed versus 104 a week ago.
- The widening north-south spread is pulling some cattle toward Oklahoma and Texas. Freight costs and yield loss limit how much can move.
- The 5-area weekly average was $219.80 live and $346.26 dressed. That is down about 14.5% since June and about 5% from a year ago.
Boxed beef
- Choice rose $4.07 to $378.26 on Monday, and Select rose $4.08 to $358.57. The Choice-Select spread narrowed to $19.69, though volume was light at 67 loads.
- Cutter cow cutout was $317.92, up $1.97.
- Formula net dressed price was $361.93.
Futures (Monday settlements)
- Live cattle: October 217.25 (-1.60), December 219.97 (-1.50), February 222.05 (-1.10).
- Feeder cattle: October 333.85 (-0.77), November 330.12 (-1.03), January 322.60 (-1.95).
- The CME Feeder Index was 337.76, up $0.92. It is still about 11% below the June 26 record of 381.86.
- Basis has shifted so that hedgers now face premium pricing in the deferred contracts. This affects marketing plans as the October contract expires later this month.
Slaughter and packer margins
- Monday slaughter was 105,000 head, versus 95,000 a week ago and 100,502 a year ago.
- Last week's slaughter recovered to about 548,000 head, up 64,000 from the prior week.
- Packer margins were about $69 per head on Friday, down from $126 on Thursday. Processors have stayed profitable since July.
- Carcass weights were 952 lbs, 12 lbs above last year. Quality grade was 87.3% Choice and Prime, near historic highs.
Feeder and replacement markets
- Nebraska 700-800 lb steers were $373.21 and Oklahoma was $350.19, a gap of about 6%.
- Nebraska 500-600 lb steers were $462.81 and Oklahoma was $401.92, a gap of about 13%.
- Feeder prices are down roughly 6-7% from a year ago.
- The weaned versus unweaned calf spread is widening, with the gap near $50/cwt. Fall health risk is a concern for unweaned calves.
- Feeder and stocker marketings for the week ending 9/19 were 28.6% below the 3-year average.
Feed
- December corn is near $4.97. Omaha cash was $4.80, and Guymon, OK basis is about +$1.00.
- Corn is near a six-week low. USDA reported Sept. 1 corn stocks of 2.10 billion bushels, up 35% from last year. Harvest weather is favorable.
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3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS
1) Import quota expansion has not reached the grocery store
The 300,000 MT trimmings quota expansion began Sept. 1. The American Farm Bureau tracked 80% lean ground beef at 41 stores in 22 states. The average price moved only from $7.29 to $7.16 per pound, a 1.8% drop. Over the same period, feeder cattle lost about 15% ($300-$400 per head) and fed cattle fell about 14.5% from June to September. The proclamation has no enforcement mechanism for passing savings to consumers.
Not everyone agrees on the role of imports. One analyst's review of long-run data found no meaningful link between import share and packer gross margins; the correlation was effectively zero since 1980 and negative in recent years. Another group says packer consolidation and a shrinking cash market, not imports, are the core problem. Negotiated cash is just 17.8% of purchases, down from 52.1% in 2005. For the week ending Sept. 13, three of five reporting regions could not publish cash prices because of confidentiality rules. Expect continued pressure for Packers and Stockyards Act enforcement.
2) Slaughter is normalizing after the immigration-related disruption
Plant workers stayed home last week amid immigration enforcement concerns in Kansas, then returned after reassurances. Slaughter is now back to normal levels, which is pressuring box prices, though Monday's cutout gains were a positive sign. Feedlots are deep in the red and will try to push cash higher, but packers remain profitable and fed supplies stay tight through year-end. Negotiated grids are earning $2-$3/cwt more than formula sales, so sellers with leverage are shifting toward them.
3) The cattle cycle may be near a turning point
Oklahoma State's Derrell Peel notes that beef cow culling is projected at a record-low 7.3% in 2026, versus a long-run average of 10%. Heifer slaughter is down 11.3% year to date. The July report showed a 100,000 head increase in replacement heifers. Culling will likely rise in 2027 as older cows turn over, so heifer retention is needed to stabilize the herd. If retention builds, feeder supplies tighten further, which supports feeders in the near term and fed cattle and beef in 2027.
Other items to watch:
- The second Santa Teresa, NM port reopened Sept. 24, restoring Mexican cattle flow. All Mexican cattle now need RFID tags.
- New World Screwworm: 50 total U.S. detections, the latest a horse in Grant County, NM on Sept. 17. The last cattle case was July 30.
- Pasture and range conditions are only 19% good to excellent, versus 32% last year. Rain is improving the Great Plains, but the South remains hot and dry.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
4. OUTLOOK
Near term (1-2 weeks)
- Watch this week's daily slaughter and box prices. If slaughter holds near 100,000+ per day and boxes keep firming, feedlots may get a small cash increase. If boxes fade, expect steady to lower cash.
- Futures are trading below cash and have been weak, so the market shows little confidence in higher cash prices. Hedgers should review October expiration and basis levels now.
- T
October 6, 2026
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
1. MARKET SENTIMENT: NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH SHORT TERM, BULLISH STRUCTURALLY (5/10)
Cash fed cattle are holding steady and boxed beef is firming. Futures keep sliding, though, and prices remain well below June highs. Packers failed to push cash lower, which is constructive. Futures are pricing in a weaker path, and feeders are under pressure. Tight cattle supplies are the long-term support.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
2. KEY PRICE TRENDS
Fed cash cattle
- Live prices were mostly steady for the third straight week. Nebraska and the Western Cornbelt traded around $220-$222, and the South traded around $225-$226. Dressed trade was $345-$350.
- Monday's negotiated cash trade was inactive, with only 11 head confirmed versus 104 a week ago.
- The widening north-south spread is pulling some cattle toward Oklahoma and Texas. Freight costs and yield loss limit how much can move.
- The 5-area weekly average was $219.80 live and $346.26 dressed. That is down about 14.5% since June and about 5% from a year ago.
Boxed beef
- Choice rose $4.07 to $378.26 on Monday, and Select rose $4.08 to $358.57. The Choice-Select spread narrowed to $19.69, though volume was light at 67 loads.
- Cutter cow cutout was $317.92, up $1.97.
- Formula net dressed price was $361.93.
Futures (Monday settlements)
- Live cattle: October 217.25 (-1.60), December 219.97 (-1.50), February 222.05 (-1.10).
- Feeder cattle: October 333.85 (-0.77), November 330.12 (-1.03), January 322.60 (-1.95).
- The CME Feeder Index was 337.76, up $0.92. It is still about 11% below the June 26 record of 381.86.
- Basis has shifted so that hedgers now face premium pricing in the deferred contracts. This affects marketing plans as the October contract expires later this month.
Slaughter and packer margins
- Monday slaughter was 105,000 head, versus 95,000 a week ago and 100,502 a year ago.
- Last week's slaughter recovered to about 548,000 head, up 64,000 from the prior week.
- Packer margins were about $69 per head on Friday, down from $126 on Thursday. Processors have stayed profitable since July.
- Carcass weights were 952 lbs, 12 lbs above last year. Quality grade was 87.3% Choice and Prime, near historic highs.
Feeder and replacement markets
- Nebraska 700-800 lb steers were $373.21 and Oklahoma was $350.19, a gap of about 6%.
- Nebraska 500-600 lb steers were $462.81 and Oklahoma was $401.92, a gap of about 13%.
- Feeder prices are down roughly 6-7% from a year ago.
- The weaned versus unweaned calf spread is widening, with the gap near $50/cwt. Fall health risk is a concern for unweaned calves.
- Feeder and stocker marketings for the week ending 9/19 were 28.6% below the 3-year average.
Feed
- December corn is near $4.97. Omaha cash was $4.80, and Guymon, OK basis is about +$1.00.
- Corn is near a six-week low. USDA reported Sept. 1 corn stocks of 2.10 billion bushels, up 35% from last year. Harvest weather is favorable.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS
1) Import quota expansion has not reached the grocery store
The 300,000 MT trimmings quota expansion began Sept. 1. The American Farm Bureau tracked 80% lean ground beef at 41 stores in 22 states. The average price moved only from $7.29 to $7.16 per pound, a 1.8% drop. Over the same period, feeder cattle lost about 15% ($300-$400 per head) and fed cattle fell about 14.5% from June to September. The proclamation has no enforcement mechanism for passing savings to consumers.
Not everyone agrees on the role of imports. One analyst's review of long-run data found no meaningful link between import share and packer gross margins; the correlation was effectively zero since 1980 and negative in recent years. Another group says packer consolidation and a shrinking cash market, not imports, are the core problem. Negotiated cash is just 17.8% of purchases, down from 52.1% in 2005. For the week ending Sept. 13, three of five reporting regions could not publish cash prices because of confidentiality rules. Expect continued pressure for Packers and Stockyards Act enforcement.
2) Slaughter is normalizing after the immigration-related disruption
Plant workers stayed home last week amid immigration enforcement concerns in Kansas, then returned after reassurances. Slaughter is now back to normal levels, which is pressuring box prices, though Monday's cutout gains were a positive sign. Feedlots are deep in the red and will try to push cash higher, but packers remain profitable and fed supplies stay tight through year-end. Negotiated grids are earning $2-$3/cwt more than formula sales, so sellers with leverage are shifting toward them.
3) The cattle cycle may be near a turning point
Oklahoma State's Derrell Peel notes that beef cow culling is projected at a record-low 7.3% in 2026, versus a long-run average of 10%. Heifer slaughter is down 11.3% year to date. The July report showed a 100,000 head increase in replacement heifers. Culling will likely rise in 2027 as older cows turn over, so heifer retention is needed to stabilize the herd. If retention builds, feeder supplies tighten further, which supports feeders in the near term and fed cattle and beef in 2027.
Other items to watch:
- The second Santa Teresa, NM port reopened Sept. 24, restoring Mexican cattle flow. All Mexican cattle now need RFID tags.
- New World Screwworm: 50 total U.S. detections, the latest a horse in Grant County, NM on Sept. 17. The last cattle case was July 30.
- Pasture and range conditions are only 19% good to excellent, versus 32% last year. Rain is improving the Great Plains, but the South remains hot and dry.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
4. OUTLOOK
Near term (1-2 weeks)
- Watch this week's daily slaughter and box prices. If slaughter holds near 100,000+ per day and boxes keep firming, feedlots may get a small cash increase. If boxes fade, expect steady to lower cash.
- Futures are trading below cash and have been weak, so the market shows little confidence in higher cash prices. Hedgers should review October expiration and basis levels now.
- T
For more detailed information or specific market data, please contact your local extension office or market analyst.