DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
October 7, 2026
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1. MARKET SENTIMENT: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH (6 out of 10)
Supplies are still tight, but cash prices are soft and the market is range-bound. The structural story is bullish: very low cattle numbers, tight fed supplies expected through year-end, and Choice boxed beef holding near $378-$379. The offsets are cash fed cattle that are steady to slightly lower, consumer demand questions, and prices well off the summer highs. The 5-area fed steer price is down about 14.5% since June and about 5% from a year ago.
Tuesday's sharp futures bounce eased the technical weakness of the last two sessions. It has not yet changed the picture of cash trade stuck in neutral.
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2. KEY PRICE TRENDS
Futures (Tuesday, Oct 6 settlements, after a Monday decline)
- Dec live cattle: 224.10, up 4.13 (Monday: 219.975, down 1.5)
- Feb live cattle: 227.17, up 5.12
- Nov feeders: 338.27, up 8.15 (Monday: 330.125, down 1.025)
- Jan feeders: 331.82, up 9.22
- Dec lean hogs: 70.37, down 0.58
- Dec corn: $5.08, up 10.75 cents
Cash fed cattle
- Last week's northern trade was $220-$222 live (down about $2 from the prior week) and $345-$350 dressed.
- Southern cash was $225-$226 live. The widening north-south spread is pulling some cattle toward Oklahoma and Texas, but freight and yield loss limit how far that goes.
- Negotiated cash trade in Nebraska and the Western Cornbelt was inactive on light demand Tuesday. Only 139 negotiated head were confirmed, versus 1,466 a week ago.
- Formula cattle priced Tuesday averaged $359.54 dressed at 955 lbs.
- LMIC's 5-area weekly average was $219.80 live and $346.26 dressed, down slightly from the prior week.
Boxed beef
- Choice was $378.93 on Tuesday (up $0.67), and Select was $356.34 (down $2.23). The Choice-Select spread was $22.59.
- Choice moved above year-ago levels for the first time in weeks. Prime is taking a larger share of retail offerings as its spread to Choice narrows.
- Cutter cow cutout was $317.81.
Feeders and replacements
- The CME Feeder Index was $337.22, about 12% below the June 26 record of $381.86.
- Weekly 700-800 lb steers: Nebraska $373.21, Oklahoma $350.19.
- Weekly 500-600 lb steers: Nebraska $462.81, Oklahoma $401.92. Northern calves are bringing a large premium.
- The latest Oklahoma City report had heavy feeder steers steady to $2 lower and lighter steers $3-$8 lower. Heifer calves were $5-$10 higher after recent rains, and buyers are discounting warm-weather crossbred cattle.
- Feeder and stocker marketings for the week ending 9/26 were 9.5% above the three-year average. The prior week was 28.6% below.
- The spread between weaned and unweaned calves is widening as fall health risks rise.
Feed grains
- Corn is holding near $5 for December, with Omaha cash at $4.80.
- Sept. 1 corn stocks were up 35% from last year, a bearish factor for grain.
- Corn condition fell to 54% good/excellent from 57% a week earlier.
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3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS
A. Slaughter is normalizing after the immigration disruption, and packers are staying profitable.
- Weekly slaughter rebounded to about 548,000 head, up 64,000 from the prior week and the largest since January.
- Tuesday's kill was 110,000 head, versus 108,000 a week ago and 118,008 a year ago.
- Plant workers returned after reassurances about enforcement. Packer margins were about $69 per head on Friday, down from $126 on Thursday. Packers have stayed profitable since July, the longest stretch in several years.
- Higher volumes are pressuring box prices, but tight fed supplies should keep Choice values supported.
B. Tariff-rate quota imports have so far had a limited footprint.
- Only 37,486 metric tons (37.5%) of the first 100,000 MT tranche had entered by Sept. 28.
- Two estimates put truly additional beef at roughly 8,000-22,000 MT for September.
- American Farm Bureau tracked 80% lean ground beef at 41 stores in 22 states. The average slipped only 1.8%, from $7.29 to $7.16 per pound, so there is no visible retail relief.
- Over the same period, feeder cattle fell about 15% ($300-$400 per head) and fed cattle
October 7, 2026
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
1. MARKET SENTIMENT: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH (6 out of 10)
Supplies are still tight, but cash prices are soft and the market is range-bound. The structural story is bullish: very low cattle numbers, tight fed supplies expected through year-end, and Choice boxed beef holding near $378-$379. The offsets are cash fed cattle that are steady to slightly lower, consumer demand questions, and prices well off the summer highs. The 5-area fed steer price is down about 14.5% since June and about 5% from a year ago.
Tuesday's sharp futures bounce eased the technical weakness of the last two sessions. It has not yet changed the picture of cash trade stuck in neutral.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
2. KEY PRICE TRENDS
Futures (Tuesday, Oct 6 settlements, after a Monday decline)
- Dec live cattle: 224.10, up 4.13 (Monday: 219.975, down 1.5)
- Feb live cattle: 227.17, up 5.12
- Nov feeders: 338.27, up 8.15 (Monday: 330.125, down 1.025)
- Jan feeders: 331.82, up 9.22
- Dec lean hogs: 70.37, down 0.58
- Dec corn: $5.08, up 10.75 cents
Cash fed cattle
- Last week's northern trade was $220-$222 live (down about $2 from the prior week) and $345-$350 dressed.
- Southern cash was $225-$226 live. The widening north-south spread is pulling some cattle toward Oklahoma and Texas, but freight and yield loss limit how far that goes.
- Negotiated cash trade in Nebraska and the Western Cornbelt was inactive on light demand Tuesday. Only 139 negotiated head were confirmed, versus 1,466 a week ago.
- Formula cattle priced Tuesday averaged $359.54 dressed at 955 lbs.
- LMIC's 5-area weekly average was $219.80 live and $346.26 dressed, down slightly from the prior week.
Boxed beef
- Choice was $378.93 on Tuesday (up $0.67), and Select was $356.34 (down $2.23). The Choice-Select spread was $22.59.
- Choice moved above year-ago levels for the first time in weeks. Prime is taking a larger share of retail offerings as its spread to Choice narrows.
- Cutter cow cutout was $317.81.
Feeders and replacements
- The CME Feeder Index was $337.22, about 12% below the June 26 record of $381.86.
- Weekly 700-800 lb steers: Nebraska $373.21, Oklahoma $350.19.
- Weekly 500-600 lb steers: Nebraska $462.81, Oklahoma $401.92. Northern calves are bringing a large premium.
- The latest Oklahoma City report had heavy feeder steers steady to $2 lower and lighter steers $3-$8 lower. Heifer calves were $5-$10 higher after recent rains, and buyers are discounting warm-weather crossbred cattle.
- Feeder and stocker marketings for the week ending 9/26 were 9.5% above the three-year average. The prior week was 28.6% below.
- The spread between weaned and unweaned calves is widening as fall health risks rise.
Feed grains
- Corn is holding near $5 for December, with Omaha cash at $4.80.
- Sept. 1 corn stocks were up 35% from last year, a bearish factor for grain.
- Corn condition fell to 54% good/excellent from 57% a week earlier.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS
A. Slaughter is normalizing after the immigration disruption, and packers are staying profitable.
- Weekly slaughter rebounded to about 548,000 head, up 64,000 from the prior week and the largest since January.
- Tuesday's kill was 110,000 head, versus 108,000 a week ago and 118,008 a year ago.
- Plant workers returned after reassurances about enforcement. Packer margins were about $69 per head on Friday, down from $126 on Thursday. Packers have stayed profitable since July, the longest stretch in several years.
- Higher volumes are pressuring box prices, but tight fed supplies should keep Choice values supported.
B. Tariff-rate quota imports have so far had a limited footprint.
- Only 37,486 metric tons (37.5%) of the first 100,000 MT tranche had entered by Sept. 28.
- Two estimates put truly additional beef at roughly 8,000-22,000 MT for September.
- American Farm Bureau tracked 80% lean ground beef at 41 stores in 22 states. The average slipped only 1.8%, from $7.29 to $7.16 per pound, so there is no visible retail relief.
- Over the same period, feeder cattle fell about 15% ($300-$400 per head) and fed cattle
For more detailed information or specific market data, please contact your local extension office or market analyst.