DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
October 13, 2026
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1. MARKET SENTIMENT: MODERATELY BULLISH (7/10)
Futures are leading, and cash trade has not yet confirmed the move. The USDA corn surprise sent feeder and live cattle futures sharply higher Friday. Fed cattle supplies are tight, especially in the south. Feeder supplies look limited, and packers have stayed profitable since July. The caution is a sluggish cash market, with Kansas reporting no confirmed sales last week, and a choice cutout drifting lower ($373.35 Friday, down $1.50). The market expects the next cash move to be higher, but sellers are still waiting for it.
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2. KEY PRICE TRENDS
Fed cattle cash:
- Late trade in the north moved live prices from $218 to $220-$223. Dressed trade was mostly $345, with some at $350.
- Light Texas trade was reported at $226.
- Kansas had no reported trades. Sellers passed on $226 bids, and bids were still on the table Saturday.
Futures (Friday):
- November feeder cattle settled at 341.950, up 7.075 cents (+2.1%), a three-month high.
- December live cattle settled at 227.050, up 3.500 cents (+1.6%), a two-month high. They broke through the 100-day moving average.
- Corn fell by as much as the 30-cent daily limit after USDA raised its yield estimate.
Feeders and replacements:
- Feeder prices are up roughly 5.5-6.0% since Labor Day.
- Oklahoma 450-lb steers are up 6.3% in five weeks. That is counter-seasonal, since light calves usually soften into October.
- Oklahoma auction volume is down 23.2% since July 1 (about 78,000 head). Nationally, USDA reported feeder and stocker marketings for the week ending 9/26 at 9.5% above the 3-year average.
- October and November are the peak replacement marketing months.
Slaughter, carcasses and beef:
- Last week's slaughter was 531,000 head, 17,000 under the prior week and 20,000 under last year.
- Carcass weights were 952 lb, flat on the week and 16 lb above last year. Quality grade was 87.2%, near historic highs.
- Boxed beef was stable to slightly lower. Lean beef is under pressure from imports.
- Prime is gaining share as Prime-Choice spreads narrow.
Other:
- The FAO Food Price Index rose for a third month to its highest level since November 2022, driven by cereals and sugar. Meat prices fell 1.1%.
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3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS
1) USDA's corn surprise rallies cattle futures.
USDA raised the corn yield by 2.7 bushels to 181.2, lifted production to 16.0 billion bushels and raised ending stocks to 1.8 billion. It cut the season-average price to $4.70. Cheaper feed supports feeder values and feedlot breakevens, and deferred feeder futures benefited most. Basis near Guymon, OK is about +$1.00 over December. Replacement buyers should still check deferred futures, since they may not show a profit on today's purchases.
2) Fed cattle trade is stalled, and the October WASDE points to tighter beef supplies.
Packers have been unable to push cash prices lower, and sellers are holding for higher bids. Cattle are moving from the north to southwest Kansas plants. Sustainable Beef in North Platte is nearing one-shift capacity. USDA's October WASDE lowered beef production for the second half of 2026 and for 2027. The cuts reflect lighter carcass weights and lower feedlot placements, which should slow first-quarter 2027 marketings. Beef imports were raised, mainly on Australian strength, and cattle price forecasts were left unchanged. Analysts expect the year-over-year gains in carcass weights to end this year, which would tighten beef tonnage further.
3) Screwworm and border developments.
- Total confirmed New World screwworm detections rose to 52 after a dog in Brewster County, TX tested positive on October 2. The last cattle case was July 30.
- Texas lifted restrictions in parts of Pecos County and redesignated the remainder as Infested Zone 15A.
- Mexican feeder imports are uneven. Santa Teresa, NM, which handled about 40% of Mexican feeders before the shutdown, saw just 400 head Tuesday (1,350 for the week). Douglas, AZ saw 1,300 head Tuesday (2,550 for the week).
- Heavy cattle nearing finish are crossing, while few light cattle are coming because of good rains in Chihuahua and Sonora.
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ALSO WATCHING
- Pasture and range: 23% good to excellent, up from 19%. Drought coverage fell 7.0% on the week after heavy rain in the Southern Plains, though Oklahoma still had 51% of pasture poor to very poor. Winter wheat grazing could be large, but cattle to stock it may be scarce.
- Fall health risk: the spread between weaned and unweaned calves is widening (about $50/cwt). Ask for full health records.
- DOJ is objecting to the $202.8 million meatpacker wage settlements and wants enforceable limits on wage coordination and information sharing. The final hearing is November 13. The effect on cattle bids is indirect, and no price impact is indicated.
- R-CALF is pushing to ban unpriced formula contracts. USDA data show formula purchases at 63.3% of fed cattle in 2025 and negotiated cash at 17.8%.
- Government "process your own beef" programs, such as state-inspected interstate sales, face doubts about whether the economics work.
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4. OUTLOOK
Near term, expect cash to test higher. Futures are signaling it, supplies are tight, especially in the south, and packers have been profitable since July. A confirmed Kansas trade at or above $226 live would validate the futures rally. If Kansas trades remain absent and the cutout keeps sliding, futures may have gotten ahead of the physical market, and the rally could stall at technical resistance (the 200-day average on feeders).
For feeder and replacement sellers, the combination of cheaper corn, short supplies and strong demand supports a continued, if uneven, recovery in the fourth quarter. Watch for rain-driven wheat planting to lift stocker demand. Buyers should weigh deferred futures before paying up.
Tight fed supplies should persist through year-end. Looking ahead, 2027 carcass weight gains may flatten, and WASDE's lower placements and production point to tighter beef supplies. Risks to monitor include import competition, screwworm detections and border policy, and regulatory pressure on contracting and packer practices.
Key dates: USDA's weekly price and carcass reports (Tuesday), the Drought Monitor (Thursday), and the DOJ wage settlement hearing (November 13).
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October 13, 2026
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
1. MARKET SENTIMENT: MODERATELY BULLISH (7/10)
Futures are leading, and cash trade has not yet confirmed the move. The USDA corn surprise sent feeder and live cattle futures sharply higher Friday. Fed cattle supplies are tight, especially in the south. Feeder supplies look limited, and packers have stayed profitable since July. The caution is a sluggish cash market, with Kansas reporting no confirmed sales last week, and a choice cutout drifting lower ($373.35 Friday, down $1.50). The market expects the next cash move to be higher, but sellers are still waiting for it.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
2. KEY PRICE TRENDS
Fed cattle cash:
- Late trade in the north moved live prices from $218 to $220-$223. Dressed trade was mostly $345, with some at $350.
- Light Texas trade was reported at $226.
- Kansas had no reported trades. Sellers passed on $226 bids, and bids were still on the table Saturday.
Futures (Friday):
- November feeder cattle settled at 341.950, up 7.075 cents (+2.1%), a three-month high.
- December live cattle settled at 227.050, up 3.500 cents (+1.6%), a two-month high. They broke through the 100-day moving average.
- Corn fell by as much as the 30-cent daily limit after USDA raised its yield estimate.
Feeders and replacements:
- Feeder prices are up roughly 5.5-6.0% since Labor Day.
- Oklahoma 450-lb steers are up 6.3% in five weeks. That is counter-seasonal, since light calves usually soften into October.
- Oklahoma auction volume is down 23.2% since July 1 (about 78,000 head). Nationally, USDA reported feeder and stocker marketings for the week ending 9/26 at 9.5% above the 3-year average.
- October and November are the peak replacement marketing months.
Slaughter, carcasses and beef:
- Last week's slaughter was 531,000 head, 17,000 under the prior week and 20,000 under last year.
- Carcass weights were 952 lb, flat on the week and 16 lb above last year. Quality grade was 87.2%, near historic highs.
- Boxed beef was stable to slightly lower. Lean beef is under pressure from imports.
- Prime is gaining share as Prime-Choice spreads narrow.
Other:
- The FAO Food Price Index rose for a third month to its highest level since November 2022, driven by cereals and sugar. Meat prices fell 1.1%.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS
1) USDA's corn surprise rallies cattle futures.
USDA raised the corn yield by 2.7 bushels to 181.2, lifted production to 16.0 billion bushels and raised ending stocks to 1.8 billion. It cut the season-average price to $4.70. Cheaper feed supports feeder values and feedlot breakevens, and deferred feeder futures benefited most. Basis near Guymon, OK is about +$1.00 over December. Replacement buyers should still check deferred futures, since they may not show a profit on today's purchases.
2) Fed cattle trade is stalled, and the October WASDE points to tighter beef supplies.
Packers have been unable to push cash prices lower, and sellers are holding for higher bids. Cattle are moving from the north to southwest Kansas plants. Sustainable Beef in North Platte is nearing one-shift capacity. USDA's October WASDE lowered beef production for the second half of 2026 and for 2027. The cuts reflect lighter carcass weights and lower feedlot placements, which should slow first-quarter 2027 marketings. Beef imports were raised, mainly on Australian strength, and cattle price forecasts were left unchanged. Analysts expect the year-over-year gains in carcass weights to end this year, which would tighten beef tonnage further.
3) Screwworm and border developments.
- Total confirmed New World screwworm detections rose to 52 after a dog in Brewster County, TX tested positive on October 2. The last cattle case was July 30.
- Texas lifted restrictions in parts of Pecos County and redesignated the remainder as Infested Zone 15A.
- Mexican feeder imports are uneven. Santa Teresa, NM, which handled about 40% of Mexican feeders before the shutdown, saw just 400 head Tuesday (1,350 for the week). Douglas, AZ saw 1,300 head Tuesday (2,550 for the week).
- Heavy cattle nearing finish are crossing, while few light cattle are coming because of good rains in Chihuahua and Sonora.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
ALSO WATCHING
- Pasture and range: 23% good to excellent, up from 19%. Drought coverage fell 7.0% on the week after heavy rain in the Southern Plains, though Oklahoma still had 51% of pasture poor to very poor. Winter wheat grazing could be large, but cattle to stock it may be scarce.
- Fall health risk: the spread between weaned and unweaned calves is widening (about $50/cwt). Ask for full health records.
- DOJ is objecting to the $202.8 million meatpacker wage settlements and wants enforceable limits on wage coordination and information sharing. The final hearing is November 13. The effect on cattle bids is indirect, and no price impact is indicated.
- R-CALF is pushing to ban unpriced formula contracts. USDA data show formula purchases at 63.3% of fed cattle in 2025 and negotiated cash at 17.8%.
- Government "process your own beef" programs, such as state-inspected interstate sales, face doubts about whether the economics work.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
4. OUTLOOK
Near term, expect cash to test higher. Futures are signaling it, supplies are tight, especially in the south, and packers have been profitable since July. A confirmed Kansas trade at or above $226 live would validate the futures rally. If Kansas trades remain absent and the cutout keeps sliding, futures may have gotten ahead of the physical market, and the rally could stall at technical resistance (the 200-day average on feeders).
For feeder and replacement sellers, the combination of cheaper corn, short supplies and strong demand supports a continued, if uneven, recovery in the fourth quarter. Watch for rain-driven wheat planting to lift stocker demand. Buyers should weigh deferred futures before paying up.
Tight fed supplies should persist through year-end. Looking ahead, 2027 carcass weight gains may flatten, and WASDE's lower placements and production point to tighter beef supplies. Risks to monitor include import competition, screwworm detections and border policy, and regulatory pressure on contracting and packer practices.
Key dates: USDA's weekly price and carcass reports (Tuesday), the Drought Monitor (Thursday), and the DOJ wage settlement hearing (November 13).
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
For more detailed information or specific market data, please contact your local extension office or market analyst.