DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
October 14, 2026
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1. MARKET SENTIMENT: MODERATELY BULLISH (7/10)
Cheaper feed and tight cattle supplies are supporting the market. Feeder futures hit a three-month high and live cattle futures reached a two-month high after Friday's WASDE corn surprise. Cash trading remains thin, though, and the cutout is soft outside the rib primal. Monday's pullback in futures shows the rally still needs follow-through.
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2. KEY PRICE TRENDS
Futures
- Friday: November feeders settled at 341.950 (+7.075) and December live cattle at 227.050 (+3.500). Corn fell by its 30-cent daily limit.
- Weekly gains: October live cattle closed at $224.975 (+$6.125) and October feeders at $343.850 (+$9.225). November through April feeders gained roughly $10.78 to $11.80, and deferred contracts led the move.
- Monday: November feeders eased 0.850 to 341.100 after hitting resistance at the 200-day moving average. December live cattle slipped 0.450 to 226.600 but held its 100-day moving average.
- Futures are at a premium to cash. The CME Feeder Index was $337.07 on Friday.
Fed cash cattle
- The North traded $220-$223 live (up from $218-$222 earlier), and dressed trade was mainly $345 with some at $350.
- The South was light at $226, steady on the week. Some Kansas and Texas cattle sold near $227 but were not reported in the cash trade.
- Slaughter was 535,000 head, down 13,000 from the prior week and 17,000 below last year. Processors have stayed profitable since July.
- Carcass weights are 952 lbs, flat on the week and 16 lbs above last year. Quality grade is 87.2.
Boxed beef
- Choice was $373.35 on Friday and Select $354.30 on the week, both slightly lower week over week.
- Rib values keep setting records, while grinds and trimmings are weak under import pressure. Trimmings have propped up the cutout for a year, so continued weakness could pressure the cutout into early 2027.
Feeders and replacements
- Feeder prices are up about 5.5-6.0% since Labor Day. Oklahoma 450-lb steers are up 6.3% in five weeks, which is counter-seasonal.
- Oklahoma City on Monday: feeder steers over 750 lbs steady to $3 higher, under 750 lbs $5-$10 higher, and steer calves $10-$20 higher. Buyers are responding to wheat emergence and forecast rain.
- Nationally, feeder and stocker marketings were 19.3% above the 3-year average for the week ending 10/3. Oklahoma auction volume since July 1 is down 23.2% year over year, so the fall run there looks light.
Grains
- The USDA raised its corn yield to 181.2 bu/acre and production to 16.0 billion bushels. Ending stocks rose to 1.8 billion and the season-average price was lowered to $4.70.
- Corn condition is 56% good to excellent, up from 54%.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS
1) The WASDE corn surprise sparked the cattle rally.
The higher corn yield and larger carryover cut feed-cost expectations and pushed feeder futures sharply higher, especially in the deferred months. The same report lowered 2027 beef production (lighter dressed weights and fewer second-half 2026 feedlot placements, which will slow Q1 2027 marketings). It also raised beef imports on strong Australian supply and left cattle price forecasts unchanged. Tighter fed supplies and cheaper feed favor cattle, but higher imports cap the upside in lean beef.
2) ICE plans to challenge CME with livestock futures.
Intercontinental Exchange is targeting a December 7 launch, pending regulatory review. It will offer physically settled cattle futures plus three cash-settled cattle and hog contracts under the codes COW, MOO and SOW. ICE cites customer demand for an alternative to CME. CME has said it will keep its livestock markets running from a new Aurora, Illinois data center, so the planned interim move to Dallas is no longer needed. For hedgers this could mean more choice and better pricing, but also split liquidity.
3) The cash market keeps shrinking.
Some negotiated trades are going unreported, and USDA has offered no plan to fix this. R-CALF USA is calling for a ban on "unpriced" formula contracts, which commit cattle before a base price is set and tie payment to later cash trades. USDA data show formula purchases rose from 33.2% of volume in 2005 to 63.3% in 2025, while negotiated cash fell from 52.1% to 17.8%. With so little cash trade setting the benchmark, price discovery is weaker and trade is more vulnerable to sudden swings. Regulatory pressure through the Packers and Stockyards Act is something to watch.
Other items to watch
- Screwworm: Confirmed detections total 52. A dog in Brewster County, TX tested positive on Oct 2, and the last cattle case was July 30. Texas lifted some Pecos County restrictions, but part of the area stays restricted as Zone 15A.
- Mexican cattle: Only 400 head crossed at Santa Teresa on Tuesday, a port that once handled about 40% of Mexican feeder imports. Douglas, AZ is stronger at 2,550 head for the week. Few light Mexican cattle are being offered.
- Weather: Drought coverage fell 7.0% on the week after heavy rains in the Southern Plains. Pasture and range conditions are 23% good to excellent, up from 19%.
- DOJ is objecting to the $202.8 million meatpacker wage settlements and wants enforceable limits on pay coordination. The hearing is November 13. It has no direct price impact for now.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
4. OUTLOOK
- Fed cattle: Supplies should stay tight through year-end, especially in the South, so southern premiums should hold. Packer margins have been healthy since July, which supports bids, but weekly slaughter will follow beef demand. Carcass weight gains are expected to level off by 2027.
- Futures: Next technical targets are the 200-day average on November feeders and the August highs on December live cattle. Corn is still higher than in the past couple of years, so the rally could fade if feed prices rebound.
- Cutout: Expect continued strength in ribs and weakness in trimmings and grinds. Holiday buying may support prices near term, with possible pressure after restocking in early 2027.
- Replacement and feeder cattle: October and November are the peak marketing months. Rain across the Southern Plains and the possibility of large wheat pasture acreage support demand, but cattle availability may limit stocking. Recent gains have come on the back of lower feed costs, so buyers should check deferred futures before paying up. Weaned versus unweaned calf spreads are widening, so know the health history of what you buy.
- Marketing: Consider forward contracts that set a firm base price rather than unpriced formulas. Protect gains on deferred futures or LRP while the rally holds.
- Watch: Cash trade this week for confirmation of the futures rally, the weekly slaughter pace, any new screwworm detections or border changes, and further moves in corn.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
October 14, 2026
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
1. MARKET SENTIMENT: MODERATELY BULLISH (7/10)
Cheaper feed and tight cattle supplies are supporting the market. Feeder futures hit a three-month high and live cattle futures reached a two-month high after Friday's WASDE corn surprise. Cash trading remains thin, though, and the cutout is soft outside the rib primal. Monday's pullback in futures shows the rally still needs follow-through.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
2. KEY PRICE TRENDS
Futures
- Friday: November feeders settled at 341.950 (+7.075) and December live cattle at 227.050 (+3.500). Corn fell by its 30-cent daily limit.
- Weekly gains: October live cattle closed at $224.975 (+$6.125) and October feeders at $343.850 (+$9.225). November through April feeders gained roughly $10.78 to $11.80, and deferred contracts led the move.
- Monday: November feeders eased 0.850 to 341.100 after hitting resistance at the 200-day moving average. December live cattle slipped 0.450 to 226.600 but held its 100-day moving average.
- Futures are at a premium to cash. The CME Feeder Index was $337.07 on Friday.
Fed cash cattle
- The North traded $220-$223 live (up from $218-$222 earlier), and dressed trade was mainly $345 with some at $350.
- The South was light at $226, steady on the week. Some Kansas and Texas cattle sold near $227 but were not reported in the cash trade.
- Slaughter was 535,000 head, down 13,000 from the prior week and 17,000 below last year. Processors have stayed profitable since July.
- Carcass weights are 952 lbs, flat on the week and 16 lbs above last year. Quality grade is 87.2.
Boxed beef
- Choice was $373.35 on Friday and Select $354.30 on the week, both slightly lower week over week.
- Rib values keep setting records, while grinds and trimmings are weak under import pressure. Trimmings have propped up the cutout for a year, so continued weakness could pressure the cutout into early 2027.
Feeders and replacements
- Feeder prices are up about 5.5-6.0% since Labor Day. Oklahoma 450-lb steers are up 6.3% in five weeks, which is counter-seasonal.
- Oklahoma City on Monday: feeder steers over 750 lbs steady to $3 higher, under 750 lbs $5-$10 higher, and steer calves $10-$20 higher. Buyers are responding to wheat emergence and forecast rain.
- Nationally, feeder and stocker marketings were 19.3% above the 3-year average for the week ending 10/3. Oklahoma auction volume since July 1 is down 23.2% year over year, so the fall run there looks light.
Grains
- The USDA raised its corn yield to 181.2 bu/acre and production to 16.0 billion bushels. Ending stocks rose to 1.8 billion and the season-average price was lowered to $4.70.
- Corn condition is 56% good to excellent, up from 54%.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS
1) The WASDE corn surprise sparked the cattle rally.
The higher corn yield and larger carryover cut feed-cost expectations and pushed feeder futures sharply higher, especially in the deferred months. The same report lowered 2027 beef production (lighter dressed weights and fewer second-half 2026 feedlot placements, which will slow Q1 2027 marketings). It also raised beef imports on strong Australian supply and left cattle price forecasts unchanged. Tighter fed supplies and cheaper feed favor cattle, but higher imports cap the upside in lean beef.
2) ICE plans to challenge CME with livestock futures.
Intercontinental Exchange is targeting a December 7 launch, pending regulatory review. It will offer physically settled cattle futures plus three cash-settled cattle and hog contracts under the codes COW, MOO and SOW. ICE cites customer demand for an alternative to CME. CME has said it will keep its livestock markets running from a new Aurora, Illinois data center, so the planned interim move to Dallas is no longer needed. For hedgers this could mean more choice and better pricing, but also split liquidity.
3) The cash market keeps shrinking.
Some negotiated trades are going unreported, and USDA has offered no plan to fix this. R-CALF USA is calling for a ban on "unpriced" formula contracts, which commit cattle before a base price is set and tie payment to later cash trades. USDA data show formula purchases rose from 33.2% of volume in 2005 to 63.3% in 2025, while negotiated cash fell from 52.1% to 17.8%. With so little cash trade setting the benchmark, price discovery is weaker and trade is more vulnerable to sudden swings. Regulatory pressure through the Packers and Stockyards Act is something to watch.
Other items to watch
- Screwworm: Confirmed detections total 52. A dog in Brewster County, TX tested positive on Oct 2, and the last cattle case was July 30. Texas lifted some Pecos County restrictions, but part of the area stays restricted as Zone 15A.
- Mexican cattle: Only 400 head crossed at Santa Teresa on Tuesday, a port that once handled about 40% of Mexican feeder imports. Douglas, AZ is stronger at 2,550 head for the week. Few light Mexican cattle are being offered.
- Weather: Drought coverage fell 7.0% on the week after heavy rains in the Southern Plains. Pasture and range conditions are 23% good to excellent, up from 19%.
- DOJ is objecting to the $202.8 million meatpacker wage settlements and wants enforceable limits on pay coordination. The hearing is November 13. It has no direct price impact for now.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
4. OUTLOOK
- Fed cattle: Supplies should stay tight through year-end, especially in the South, so southern premiums should hold. Packer margins have been healthy since July, which supports bids, but weekly slaughter will follow beef demand. Carcass weight gains are expected to level off by 2027.
- Futures: Next technical targets are the 200-day average on November feeders and the August highs on December live cattle. Corn is still higher than in the past couple of years, so the rally could fade if feed prices rebound.
- Cutout: Expect continued strength in ribs and weakness in trimmings and grinds. Holiday buying may support prices near term, with possible pressure after restocking in early 2027.
- Replacement and feeder cattle: October and November are the peak marketing months. Rain across the Southern Plains and the possibility of large wheat pasture acreage support demand, but cattle availability may limit stocking. Recent gains have come on the back of lower feed costs, so buyers should check deferred futures before paying up. Weaned versus unweaned calf spreads are widening, so know the health history of what you buy.
- Marketing: Consider forward contracts that set a firm base price rather than unpriced formulas. Protect gains on deferred futures or LRP while the rally holds.
- Watch: Cash trade this week for confirmation of the futures rally, the weekly slaughter pace, any new screwworm detections or border changes, and further moves in corn.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
For more detailed information or specific market data, please contact your local extension office or market analyst.