DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
October 16, 2026
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1. MARKET SENTIMENT: MODERATELY BULLISH (7/10)
Supply fundamentals remain strongly supportive. Fed supplies are tight, slaughter is running well below last year, and USDA keeps trimming beef production forecasts. Feeder and calf markets are recovering. Three things hold the score back from higher: inflation and rate-hike worries, a thin cash market that offers little price discovery, and a softer boxed beef cutout.
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2. KEY PRICE TRENDS
Fed Cattle (Cash)
- Texas sold a pen online Wednesday at $226, steady with last week. Packers bid $226 in Kansas and Texas, but bids were passed. Short inventories later forced packers to raise bids and buy limited volumes at higher prices.
- Iowa live sales were mainly $220 (up $2). Dressed sales ran $350-$355 (up $5-$10). Nebraska had a few early dressed purchases at $345-$355, and the Western Cornbelt at $355, but USDA says neither is enough for a market test.
- Formula net dressed price was $358.69 on 19,700 head.
- Negotiated sales are thin. USDA confirmed 2,715 head this week, versus 1,928 a week ago and 4,272 a year ago. Some Kansas and Texas cattle reportedly traded at a $227 negotiated base last week without appearing in the reported cash trade.
Futures (Thursday settlements)
- December live cattle: 227.25 (up 2.13). Wednesday it peaked at 227.60, the highest since August 11, before closing down 1.25 on inflation worries.
- October live cattle: 225.95 (up 2.05). February: 229.62 (up 2.20).
- November feeders: 341.95 (up 3.50). January feeders: 337.90 (up 4.30).
- Resistance: November feeders hit their 200-day moving average earlier this week. December live cattle is testing its 100-day average as support.
- December lean hogs: 66.57 (up 0.50) after a contract low of 66.00 on Wednesday. Cash pork cutout is $79.45, the lowest since April 2023, on weak consumer demand.
Boxed Beef and Packer Side
- Thursday Choice cutout: $373.98 (down $2.52). Select: $352.62 (down $4.85). Spread: $21.36. Cutter cow cutout: $310.89.
- Thursday slaughter was 104,000 head versus 117,518 a year ago. Week-to-date is 430,000 versus 464,307 last year. Weekly slaughter is projected near 535,000, about 17,000 below last year.
- HedgersEdge estimated packer margins at $89.75 per head on Tuesday, below $108.85 a week ago. Processors have stayed profitable since July.
- Carcass weights are 953 lbs, 14 lbs heavier than last year. Quality grade is 87.3%, near historic highs.
Feeders and Calves
- CME Feeder Index: $342.64 (up $1.22). The record high is $381.86, set June 26.
- Oklahoma feeder prices are up roughly 5.5-6% since Labor Day. 450-lb steers are up 6.3% over five weeks, which is unusual for October.
- Oklahoma City, week over week: steers over 750 lbs steady to $3 higher, under 750 lbs $5-$10 higher, heifers $2-$7 higher, steer calves $10-$20 higher. OKC West calves were $5-$20 higher. Demand was good.
- Oklahoma auction volumes since July 1 are down 23.2% (about 78,000 head) from last year. USDA's national feeder and stocker marketings for the week ending 10/3 were 19.3% above the 3-year average. The Oklahoma data suggest supplies there are limited.
Macro and Inputs
- September CPI rose 3.7% year over year on surging gasoline costs. Another Fed rate hike is likely this year.
- November crude oil is $97.64 (up $2.55). December corn is $4.78 (down 2.75 cents). The Dow gained 556 points and the dollar index fell.
- The October WASDE kept cattle price forecasts unchanged: Q4 five-area steer at $225, 2026 average at $237.56, 2027 average at $238. Corn production was raised to 16.0 billion bushels, with a season-average price of $4.70.
- The Purdue/CME Ag Economy Barometer fell to 123 from 135, with a record 52% of farmers naming input costs as their top concern.
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3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS
1) ICE ENTERS LIVESTOCK FUTURES, CHALLENGING CME
Intercontinental Exchange plans to launch cattle and hog futures on December 7, pending regulatory review. The lineup is physically delivered live cattle (symbol MOO, first listed month June 2027), plus financially settled live cattle, feeder cattle and lean hogs. The physically delivered contract will mirror CME's contract size, trading hours and months. ICE says customers asked for alternatives. CME had no comment. It has also cancelled its planned temporary move of livestock trading to Dallas, after market makers worried about connecting on day one. ICE's 2012 grain challenge never dented CME's dominance, so liquidity is the thing to watch.
2) CASH MARKET KEEPS THINNING WHILE SHORT SUPPLIES FORCE BIDS HIGHER
Packers had to chase cattle Wednesday afternoon despite passing on earlier bids. Meanwhile, the pool of reported negotiated trade keeps shrinking. USDA has released no plan to fix non-re
October 16, 2026
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
1. MARKET SENTIMENT: MODERATELY BULLISH (7/10)
Supply fundamentals remain strongly supportive. Fed supplies are tight, slaughter is running well below last year, and USDA keeps trimming beef production forecasts. Feeder and calf markets are recovering. Three things hold the score back from higher: inflation and rate-hike worries, a thin cash market that offers little price discovery, and a softer boxed beef cutout.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
2. KEY PRICE TRENDS
Fed Cattle (Cash)
- Texas sold a pen online Wednesday at $226, steady with last week. Packers bid $226 in Kansas and Texas, but bids were passed. Short inventories later forced packers to raise bids and buy limited volumes at higher prices.
- Iowa live sales were mainly $220 (up $2). Dressed sales ran $350-$355 (up $5-$10). Nebraska had a few early dressed purchases at $345-$355, and the Western Cornbelt at $355, but USDA says neither is enough for a market test.
- Formula net dressed price was $358.69 on 19,700 head.
- Negotiated sales are thin. USDA confirmed 2,715 head this week, versus 1,928 a week ago and 4,272 a year ago. Some Kansas and Texas cattle reportedly traded at a $227 negotiated base last week without appearing in the reported cash trade.
Futures (Thursday settlements)
- December live cattle: 227.25 (up 2.13). Wednesday it peaked at 227.60, the highest since August 11, before closing down 1.25 on inflation worries.
- October live cattle: 225.95 (up 2.05). February: 229.62 (up 2.20).
- November feeders: 341.95 (up 3.50). January feeders: 337.90 (up 4.30).
- Resistance: November feeders hit their 200-day moving average earlier this week. December live cattle is testing its 100-day average as support.
- December lean hogs: 66.57 (up 0.50) after a contract low of 66.00 on Wednesday. Cash pork cutout is $79.45, the lowest since April 2023, on weak consumer demand.
Boxed Beef and Packer Side
- Thursday Choice cutout: $373.98 (down $2.52). Select: $352.62 (down $4.85). Spread: $21.36. Cutter cow cutout: $310.89.
- Thursday slaughter was 104,000 head versus 117,518 a year ago. Week-to-date is 430,000 versus 464,307 last year. Weekly slaughter is projected near 535,000, about 17,000 below last year.
- HedgersEdge estimated packer margins at $89.75 per head on Tuesday, below $108.85 a week ago. Processors have stayed profitable since July.
- Carcass weights are 953 lbs, 14 lbs heavier than last year. Quality grade is 87.3%, near historic highs.
Feeders and Calves
- CME Feeder Index: $342.64 (up $1.22). The record high is $381.86, set June 26.
- Oklahoma feeder prices are up roughly 5.5-6% since Labor Day. 450-lb steers are up 6.3% over five weeks, which is unusual for October.
- Oklahoma City, week over week: steers over 750 lbs steady to $3 higher, under 750 lbs $5-$10 higher, heifers $2-$7 higher, steer calves $10-$20 higher. OKC West calves were $5-$20 higher. Demand was good.
- Oklahoma auction volumes since July 1 are down 23.2% (about 78,000 head) from last year. USDA's national feeder and stocker marketings for the week ending 10/3 were 19.3% above the 3-year average. The Oklahoma data suggest supplies there are limited.
Macro and Inputs
- September CPI rose 3.7% year over year on surging gasoline costs. Another Fed rate hike is likely this year.
- November crude oil is $97.64 (up $2.55). December corn is $4.78 (down 2.75 cents). The Dow gained 556 points and the dollar index fell.
- The October WASDE kept cattle price forecasts unchanged: Q4 five-area steer at $225, 2026 average at $237.56, 2027 average at $238. Corn production was raised to 16.0 billion bushels, with a season-average price of $4.70.
- The Purdue/CME Ag Economy Barometer fell to 123 from 135, with a record 52% of farmers naming input costs as their top concern.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS
1) ICE ENTERS LIVESTOCK FUTURES, CHALLENGING CME
Intercontinental Exchange plans to launch cattle and hog futures on December 7, pending regulatory review. The lineup is physically delivered live cattle (symbol MOO, first listed month June 2027), plus financially settled live cattle, feeder cattle and lean hogs. The physically delivered contract will mirror CME's contract size, trading hours and months. ICE says customers asked for alternatives. CME had no comment. It has also cancelled its planned temporary move of livestock trading to Dallas, after market makers worried about connecting on day one. ICE's 2012 grain challenge never dented CME's dominance, so liquidity is the thing to watch.
2) CASH MARKET KEEPS THINNING WHILE SHORT SUPPLIES FORCE BIDS HIGHER
Packers had to chase cattle Wednesday afternoon despite passing on earlier bids. Meanwhile, the pool of reported negotiated trade keeps shrinking. USDA has released no plan to fix non-re
For more detailed information or specific market data, please contact your local extension office or market analyst.