DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
October 22, 2026
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
1. MARKET SENTIMENT: BULLISH (7.5/10)
Tight supplies, a breakout in futures, and firming feeder prices outweigh the cautions: narrowing packer margins, soft cash trade, and some weakness in the cutout. TCR's Cattle Market Index rose 0.44% on the day, 9.30% over 10 days, and 10.31% over 60 days, and it sits at its 60-day high.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
2. KEY PRICE TRENDS
Futures (TCR settlements, Oct 21)
- Live cattle: Oct 230.42 (+0.97), Dec 231.12 (+0.95), Feb 233.82 (+0.72).
- Feeder cattle: Oct 347.82 (+1.92), Nov 348.82 (+2.52), Jan 345.82 (+3.20).
- On Tuesday, Dec live cattle hit its highest level since July 13 (230.175, +2.15) and broke above its 200-day moving average. Nov feeders held support at their 200-day average.
- CME Feeder Cattle Index: 342.98 (+0.62). The record high is 381.86 (6/26/26).
Cash fed cattle
- Negotiated trade was inactive on light demand in Nebraska and the Western Cornbelt.
- The last established tests were 224-227 live and 350-355 dressed.
- Formula net price on 20,300 head: 360.87 dressed at 964 lbs.
Boxed beef and packers
- Choice was 372.59 (-0.71) and Select 355.34 (-6.20) in TCR's report, for a Choice/Select spread of 17.25. Reuters reported Choice at 374.14 midday Tuesday, up 2.56.
- Cutter cow cutout: 306.71 (-2.67). Lean beef is struggling against imported beef.
- Packer margins are narrowing but still positive. HedgersEdge estimates $34.50/head Tuesday, versus $41.95 Monday and $89.75 a week ago. Processors have been profitable since July, the longest stretch in several years.
Slaughter
- Last week: 553,000 head, up 18,000 on the week and 13,000 below last year. It was the largest fed-cattle kill of the year, with cow slaughter still declining.
- This week: Wednesday was 110,000 head. Week-to-date is 327,000, against 326,000 last week and 326,531 last year.
- Fed supplies are expected to stay tight through year-end, especially in the south.
Carcass data
- Weights: 958 lbs (+5 on the week, +12 on the year).
- Quality grade: 87.4% Choice and Prime, down 0.2 points but near historic highs.
Feeders and replacements
- Feeder prices are up about 5.5-6.0% since Labor Day. Prices of 450-lb Oklahoma steers are up 6.3% over five weeks, against the usual seasonal decline in lightweight calves.
- Oklahoma City compared to last week:
- Steers over 800 lbs: $4-6 higher.
- Steer calves: $10-15 higher.
- Unweaned light calves: $5-10 lower.
- Demand: moderate to good.
- OKC West:
- Steer calves: $10-20 higher, with instances up to $40.
- Heifer calves: $10-15 higher.
- Demand: good.
- The weaned versus unweaned spread is widening. Fall health losses on unweaned calves are a concern.
- Oklahoma auction volumes are down 23.2% since July 1, about 78,000 head.
- National feeder and stocker marketings were 19.3% above the 3-year average for the week ending 10/3 but 2.7% below for the week ending 10/10.
Grains and other markets
- December corn was 4.6325 (+0.0125). Analysts note a sharp two-week slide with the spot December contract near $4.50, which should soon lower feedlot ration costs.
- Corn harvest is 52% complete (44% last week). 56% of the crop is rated good to excellent.
- December lean hogs: 65.72 (-1.43) per TCR, with weak pork demand. Reuters reported 67.15 (+0.80) Tuesday.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS
1) USDA adds a regional cash cattle price report (starts Oct 26)
- Secretary Rollins announced that AMS will add a regional negotiated cash cattle report. It combines Colorado, Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Kansas, using existing LMR data. Packers have no new reporting burden.
- Cash trade was over 50% of transactions in 2005 but under 18% in 2025. Confidentiality limits on thin trade have reduced the usefulness of current reports.
- It implements two Trump executive orders on rancher support and fair competition. Expect more visibility into southern Plains cash trade, which could help price discovery.
2) Cattle futures break out to multi-month highs
- Technical buying and tight supplies drove the rally. Jim McCormick of AgMarket expects supplies to stay tight "for a very, very long time" because herd rebuilding takes time.
- Consumer demand is holding up. Cash trade is still thin, so futures are leading price discovery.
3) Southern border reopening continues as screwworm detections persist
- APHIS will reopen the Columbus, NM port to Mexican cattle on Oct 26. Nogales, AZ is tentatively set for Nov 30 if conditions allow. Equine imports resume at Santa Teresa, NM, with a 7-day quarantine.
- This could modestly ease feeder supplies. However, USDA's tally reached 53 confirmed New World screwworm detections, including a cattle case in Pecos County, TX on Oct 10. That is the first cattle case since July 30. Another detection could slow or reverse the reopening.
Also noteworthy:
- A large feeding firm has announced its first feedyard closure, which signals the start of an industry downsizing to fit the smaller herd.
- R-CALF's challenge to the mandatory EID eartag rule has a hearing set for Nov 18 in Rapid City, SD.
- USDA projects 2027 world beef production at 60.03 million metric tons, down 3.7% from the 2025 peak. The U.S. takes 22.5% of global beef imports, which supports import demand and U.S. prices.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
4. OUTLOOK
- Fed cattle: The structural supply squeeze should keep futures supported. Watch whether packers must raise cash bids to fill the schedule. Narrowing margins may limit how fast they can. Heavy carcass weights (958 lbs) add some beef tonnage.
- Cutout: Choice has been steady to slightly lower in TCR's report. A weakening cutout would test the futures rally.
- Feeders and stockers: Fall is peak replacement season, and demand is strong against short supplies. Winter wheat is 69% planted and 43% emerged, with good rains in the southern Plains, so grazing demand could be the largest in years. Sellers with calves, especially weaned and well-documented ones, are well positioned.
- Feeding economics: Lower corn helps cost of gain, but feeder prices are rising and deferred futures offer thin returns for replacement buyers. Buyers should stay disciplined and check health records.
- Risks: Screwworm detections in Texas, regulatory changes (cash report, EID litigation), and potential trade or border policy shifts. Pasture conditions remain poor (22% good to excellent).
- What to watch: the Oct 26 regional cash report and Columbus port reopening, Friday's drought monitor, weekly cash trade, boxed beef direction, and packer margins.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
October 22, 2026
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
1. MARKET SENTIMENT: BULLISH (7.5/10)
Tight supplies, a breakout in futures, and firming feeder prices outweigh the cautions: narrowing packer margins, soft cash trade, and some weakness in the cutout. TCR's Cattle Market Index rose 0.44% on the day, 9.30% over 10 days, and 10.31% over 60 days, and it sits at its 60-day high.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
2. KEY PRICE TRENDS
Futures (TCR settlements, Oct 21)
- Live cattle: Oct 230.42 (+0.97), Dec 231.12 (+0.95), Feb 233.82 (+0.72).
- Feeder cattle: Oct 347.82 (+1.92), Nov 348.82 (+2.52), Jan 345.82 (+3.20).
- On Tuesday, Dec live cattle hit its highest level since July 13 (230.175, +2.15) and broke above its 200-day moving average. Nov feeders held support at their 200-day average.
- CME Feeder Cattle Index: 342.98 (+0.62). The record high is 381.86 (6/26/26).
Cash fed cattle
- Negotiated trade was inactive on light demand in Nebraska and the Western Cornbelt.
- The last established tests were 224-227 live and 350-355 dressed.
- Formula net price on 20,300 head: 360.87 dressed at 964 lbs.
Boxed beef and packers
- Choice was 372.59 (-0.71) and Select 355.34 (-6.20) in TCR's report, for a Choice/Select spread of 17.25. Reuters reported Choice at 374.14 midday Tuesday, up 2.56.
- Cutter cow cutout: 306.71 (-2.67). Lean beef is struggling against imported beef.
- Packer margins are narrowing but still positive. HedgersEdge estimates $34.50/head Tuesday, versus $41.95 Monday and $89.75 a week ago. Processors have been profitable since July, the longest stretch in several years.
Slaughter
- Last week: 553,000 head, up 18,000 on the week and 13,000 below last year. It was the largest fed-cattle kill of the year, with cow slaughter still declining.
- This week: Wednesday was 110,000 head. Week-to-date is 327,000, against 326,000 last week and 326,531 last year.
- Fed supplies are expected to stay tight through year-end, especially in the south.
Carcass data
- Weights: 958 lbs (+5 on the week, +12 on the year).
- Quality grade: 87.4% Choice and Prime, down 0.2 points but near historic highs.
Feeders and replacements
- Feeder prices are up about 5.5-6.0% since Labor Day. Prices of 450-lb Oklahoma steers are up 6.3% over five weeks, against the usual seasonal decline in lightweight calves.
- Oklahoma City compared to last week:
- Steers over 800 lbs: $4-6 higher.
- Steer calves: $10-15 higher.
- Unweaned light calves: $5-10 lower.
- Demand: moderate to good.
- OKC West:
- Steer calves: $10-20 higher, with instances up to $40.
- Heifer calves: $10-15 higher.
- Demand: good.
- The weaned versus unweaned spread is widening. Fall health losses on unweaned calves are a concern.
- Oklahoma auction volumes are down 23.2% since July 1, about 78,000 head.
- National feeder and stocker marketings were 19.3% above the 3-year average for the week ending 10/3 but 2.7% below for the week ending 10/10.
Grains and other markets
- December corn was 4.6325 (+0.0125). Analysts note a sharp two-week slide with the spot December contract near $4.50, which should soon lower feedlot ration costs.
- Corn harvest is 52% complete (44% last week). 56% of the crop is rated good to excellent.
- December lean hogs: 65.72 (-1.43) per TCR, with weak pork demand. Reuters reported 67.15 (+0.80) Tuesday.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS
1) USDA adds a regional cash cattle price report (starts Oct 26)
- Secretary Rollins announced that AMS will add a regional negotiated cash cattle report. It combines Colorado, Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Kansas, using existing LMR data. Packers have no new reporting burden.
- Cash trade was over 50% of transactions in 2005 but under 18% in 2025. Confidentiality limits on thin trade have reduced the usefulness of current reports.
- It implements two Trump executive orders on rancher support and fair competition. Expect more visibility into southern Plains cash trade, which could help price discovery.
2) Cattle futures break out to multi-month highs
- Technical buying and tight supplies drove the rally. Jim McCormick of AgMarket expects supplies to stay tight "for a very, very long time" because herd rebuilding takes time.
- Consumer demand is holding up. Cash trade is still thin, so futures are leading price discovery.
3) Southern border reopening continues as screwworm detections persist
- APHIS will reopen the Columbus, NM port to Mexican cattle on Oct 26. Nogales, AZ is tentatively set for Nov 30 if conditions allow. Equine imports resume at Santa Teresa, NM, with a 7-day quarantine.
- This could modestly ease feeder supplies. However, USDA's tally reached 53 confirmed New World screwworm detections, including a cattle case in Pecos County, TX on Oct 10. That is the first cattle case since July 30. Another detection could slow or reverse the reopening.
Also noteworthy:
- A large feeding firm has announced its first feedyard closure, which signals the start of an industry downsizing to fit the smaller herd.
- R-CALF's challenge to the mandatory EID eartag rule has a hearing set for Nov 18 in Rapid City, SD.
- USDA projects 2027 world beef production at 60.03 million metric tons, down 3.7% from the 2025 peak. The U.S. takes 22.5% of global beef imports, which supports import demand and U.S. prices.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
4. OUTLOOK
- Fed cattle: The structural supply squeeze should keep futures supported. Watch whether packers must raise cash bids to fill the schedule. Narrowing margins may limit how fast they can. Heavy carcass weights (958 lbs) add some beef tonnage.
- Cutout: Choice has been steady to slightly lower in TCR's report. A weakening cutout would test the futures rally.
- Feeders and stockers: Fall is peak replacement season, and demand is strong against short supplies. Winter wheat is 69% planted and 43% emerged, with good rains in the southern Plains, so grazing demand could be the largest in years. Sellers with calves, especially weaned and well-documented ones, are well positioned.
- Feeding economics: Lower corn helps cost of gain, but feeder prices are rising and deferred futures offer thin returns for replacement buyers. Buyers should stay disciplined and check health records.
- Risks: Screwworm detections in Texas, regulatory changes (cash report, EID litigation), and potential trade or border policy shifts. Pasture conditions remain poor (22% good to excellent).
- What to watch: the Oct 26 regional cash report and Columbus port reopening, Friday's drought monitor, weekly cash trade, boxed beef direction, and packer margins.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
For more detailed information or specific market data, please contact your local extension office or market analyst.