DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
Friday, October 23, 2026
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1. MARKET SENTIMENT: BULLISH (7/10)
Supplies remain tight and futures sit near multi-month highs. Cheaper corn and a strong replacement market add support. Three things hold the score below 8:
- Boxed beef slipped Thursday.
- Packer margins have narrowed sharply from a week ago.
- Negotiated cash trade is thin, so price discovery is weak.
TCR's Cattle Market Index fell 0.94% Thursday but is still up 4.53% over 10 days and 12.18% over 60 days.
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2. KEY PRICE TRENDS
Live cattle futures (Thursday settle)
- October: 229.75 (-0.67)
- December: 231.12 (unchanged)
- February: 233.45 (-0.37)
- Dec live cattle broke above its 200-day moving average Tuesday and touched its highest level since July 13.
Feeder cattle futures (Thursday settle)
- October: 346.10 (-1.72)
- November: 346.92 (-1.90)
- January: 344.00 (-1.82)
- The CME Feeder Index is 343.56 (+0.78), still about 10% below the June 26 record of 381.86.
Cash and formula trade
- Negotiated cash was inactive on light demand. Only 66 head were confirmed Wednesday, versus 2,715 a week ago.
- The last established tests were 224-227 live and 350-355 dressed in Nebraska and the Western Cornbelt.
- Formula net dressed price was 363.87 on 21,300 head at 951 lbs.
- Cattle owners are holding out for at least 230 in the north and higher in the south.
Boxed beef
- Choice: 369.47 (-3.12)
- Select: 350.41 (-4.93)
- Choice/Select spread: 19.06
- Cutter cow cutout: 307.12
- Lean beef is struggling against imported product.
Packer margins and slaughter
- Packer margins were an estimated +$34.50/head on Tuesday, down from $41.95 Monday and $89.75 a week ago (HedgersEdge). They are still positive, and processors have been profitable since July.
- Last week's slaughter was 553,000 head, up 18,000 from the prior week and only 13,000 below last year. It was the largest fed-cattle kill of the year.
- Thursday's slaughter was estimated at 103,000, and the week-to-date total of 430,000 matches last week. That is about 3.8% below last year.
- Carcass weights are 958 lbs, up 5 lbs on the week and 12 lbs above last year. Quality grade is 87.4.
Feed and other markets
- December corn is 4.605 (-0.0275) and December wheat is 6.2475.
- Corn harvest is 52% complete versus 44% a week ago.
- December lean hogs are 65.55, with pork demand weak.
- Crude oil is near 99.
- Equities sold off Thursday: the S&P 500 fell 94 points and the Nasdaq fell 694.
Replacement cattle
- OKC feeder steers over 800 lbs were $4-6 higher, and steer calves were $10-15 higher.
- OKC West steer calves were $10-20 higher, with some up to $40.
- Heifer calves were mostly steady to higher, but 600-700 lb heifers were $6-7 lower and lighter unweaned calves were $5-10 lower.
- Oklahoma auction volume is down 23.2% since July 1, about 78,000 head. Feeder prices are up roughly 5.5-6% since Labor Day.
- The weaned versus unweaned spread is widening, and a $50/cwt spread is not unusual. Fall health problems in unweaned calves are a growing concern, so ask for full health records.
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3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS
1) USDA adds a regional cash cattle price report on October 26
Secretary Rollins announced that AMS will publish an additional report starting with Monday's afternoon release. It aggregates negotiated cash trade for Colorado, Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Kansas. It uses data already collected under Livestock Mandatory Reporting, so packers have no new reporting burden.
- Cash trade was more than 50% of transactions in 2005 but under 18% in 2025.
- Thin volume has caused confidentiality gaps in existing reports.
- Pooling five states should give a more usable southern Plains price signal, which matters because cattle there are expected to be especially tight.
2) Tight fed supplies and feedlot downsizing
- Futures rallied to multi-month highs Tuesday on technical breakouts and firmer wholesale beef, with consumer demand holding up.
- One of the largest feeding firms notified employees of a feedyard closure last week. This is the first announced closure of its kind, and more are expected as feeding capacity shrinks toward the size of the herd.
- Today is USDA's monthly Cattle on Feed report. Average pre-release guesses are on feed October 1 at 100.3%, September placements at 91.7% and September marketings at 92.8%. Placements below year-ago would extend the run of small placements and reinforce the tight supply story.
3) Border reopening continues, with screwworm risk still present
- APHIS will reopen the Columbus, NM port to Mexican cattle imports on October 26. Nogales, AZ is scheduled for November 30 if conditions allow. Equine imports resume October 26 through Santa Teresa, NM, with a seven-day quarantine.
- This brings a limited new supply of feeder cattle, which could help desert Southwest grazing and stocker demand.
- Screwworm risk remains. USDA confirmed a cattle case in Pecos County, TX on October 10, the first in cattle since July 30. Total detections stand at 53. A new detection could slow the reopening schedule.
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4. OTH
Friday, October 23, 2026
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1. MARKET SENTIMENT: BULLISH (7/10)
Supplies remain tight and futures sit near multi-month highs. Cheaper corn and a strong replacement market add support. Three things hold the score below 8:
- Boxed beef slipped Thursday.
- Packer margins have narrowed sharply from a week ago.
- Negotiated cash trade is thin, so price discovery is weak.
TCR's Cattle Market Index fell 0.94% Thursday but is still up 4.53% over 10 days and 12.18% over 60 days.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
2. KEY PRICE TRENDS
Live cattle futures (Thursday settle)
- October: 229.75 (-0.67)
- December: 231.12 (unchanged)
- February: 233.45 (-0.37)
- Dec live cattle broke above its 200-day moving average Tuesday and touched its highest level since July 13.
Feeder cattle futures (Thursday settle)
- October: 346.10 (-1.72)
- November: 346.92 (-1.90)
- January: 344.00 (-1.82)
- The CME Feeder Index is 343.56 (+0.78), still about 10% below the June 26 record of 381.86.
Cash and formula trade
- Negotiated cash was inactive on light demand. Only 66 head were confirmed Wednesday, versus 2,715 a week ago.
- The last established tests were 224-227 live and 350-355 dressed in Nebraska and the Western Cornbelt.
- Formula net dressed price was 363.87 on 21,300 head at 951 lbs.
- Cattle owners are holding out for at least 230 in the north and higher in the south.
Boxed beef
- Choice: 369.47 (-3.12)
- Select: 350.41 (-4.93)
- Choice/Select spread: 19.06
- Cutter cow cutout: 307.12
- Lean beef is struggling against imported product.
Packer margins and slaughter
- Packer margins were an estimated +$34.50/head on Tuesday, down from $41.95 Monday and $89.75 a week ago (HedgersEdge). They are still positive, and processors have been profitable since July.
- Last week's slaughter was 553,000 head, up 18,000 from the prior week and only 13,000 below last year. It was the largest fed-cattle kill of the year.
- Thursday's slaughter was estimated at 103,000, and the week-to-date total of 430,000 matches last week. That is about 3.8% below last year.
- Carcass weights are 958 lbs, up 5 lbs on the week and 12 lbs above last year. Quality grade is 87.4.
Feed and other markets
- December corn is 4.605 (-0.0275) and December wheat is 6.2475.
- Corn harvest is 52% complete versus 44% a week ago.
- December lean hogs are 65.55, with pork demand weak.
- Crude oil is near 99.
- Equities sold off Thursday: the S&P 500 fell 94 points and the Nasdaq fell 694.
Replacement cattle
- OKC feeder steers over 800 lbs were $4-6 higher, and steer calves were $10-15 higher.
- OKC West steer calves were $10-20 higher, with some up to $40.
- Heifer calves were mostly steady to higher, but 600-700 lb heifers were $6-7 lower and lighter unweaned calves were $5-10 lower.
- Oklahoma auction volume is down 23.2% since July 1, about 78,000 head. Feeder prices are up roughly 5.5-6% since Labor Day.
- The weaned versus unweaned spread is widening, and a $50/cwt spread is not unusual. Fall health problems in unweaned calves are a growing concern, so ask for full health records.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS
1) USDA adds a regional cash cattle price report on October 26
Secretary Rollins announced that AMS will publish an additional report starting with Monday's afternoon release. It aggregates negotiated cash trade for Colorado, Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Kansas. It uses data already collected under Livestock Mandatory Reporting, so packers have no new reporting burden.
- Cash trade was more than 50% of transactions in 2005 but under 18% in 2025.
- Thin volume has caused confidentiality gaps in existing reports.
- Pooling five states should give a more usable southern Plains price signal, which matters because cattle there are expected to be especially tight.
2) Tight fed supplies and feedlot downsizing
- Futures rallied to multi-month highs Tuesday on technical breakouts and firmer wholesale beef, with consumer demand holding up.
- One of the largest feeding firms notified employees of a feedyard closure last week. This is the first announced closure of its kind, and more are expected as feeding capacity shrinks toward the size of the herd.
- Today is USDA's monthly Cattle on Feed report. Average pre-release guesses are on feed October 1 at 100.3%, September placements at 91.7% and September marketings at 92.8%. Placements below year-ago would extend the run of small placements and reinforce the tight supply story.
3) Border reopening continues, with screwworm risk still present
- APHIS will reopen the Columbus, NM port to Mexican cattle imports on October 26. Nogales, AZ is scheduled for November 30 if conditions allow. Equine imports resume October 26 through Santa Teresa, NM, with a seven-day quarantine.
- This brings a limited new supply of feeder cattle, which could help desert Southwest grazing and stocker demand.
- Screwworm risk remains. USDA confirmed a cattle case in Pecos County, TX on October 10, the first in cattle since July 30. Total detections stand at 53. A new detection could slow the reopening schedule.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
4. OTH
For more detailed information or specific market data, please contact your local extension office or market analyst.