DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
October 28, 2026
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1. MARKET SENTIMENT: BULLISH (7 out of 10)
Supply fundamentals are strongly bullish. September feedlot placements were the lowest for the month since the series began in 1996, and the feeder complex is still climbing. Two things hold the score back from higher: packer margins have turned negative again, and live cattle futures are leaning overbought with consumer demand concerns showing up. Futures are also facing competition from growing pork and poultry supplies.
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2. KEY PRICE TRENDS
Futures (Tuesday settlements, CME)
- December live cattle: 230.750 cents, down 0.350. Monday was 231.200, up 0.075.
- November feeders: 350.025 cents, up 1.475. Weaker grain markets are the driver.
- January 2027 feeders: 347.100 cents, up 1.100.
- December lean hogs: 62.025 cents, down 2.650, a fresh contract low. Iowa/southern Minnesota cash hogs are near $59/cwt, well under the cost of production.
Cash and boxed beef
- Last Friday's limited cash trade was $230 live in the South and $228 in the North, about $2 higher than the prior week. Packers had to pay up after the bullish Cattle on Feed report.
- 5-area weekly average fed steer price for the week of 10/23 was $227.06, up from $224.19 a week earlier but down from $237.89 a year ago.
- Choice boxed beef was $373.59 Tuesday morning, up $4.15. Select was $360.11, up $2.55. Last Friday's Choice-Select spread narrowed to $14.57 from $20.31.
- Packer margins are back in the red. HedgersEdge shows losses of $39.75/head Tuesday and $33.30 Monday, versus a $34.50 profit a week ago. Margins had been positive since July.
- Last week's slaughter was 546,000 head, down 7,000 from the prior week and 27,000 below last year. Beef production in September was down 6%, with cattle slaughter down 7%.
- Carcass weights are 958 lbs, up 5 lbs on the week and 12 lbs above last year. OSU's Derrell Peel notes the year-over-year gain is the smallest since February 2024, so weights may be topping out.
Feeder and replacement markets
- Oklahoma City: feeder steers $5-15 higher, 600-700 lb steers $20-30 higher, and steer and heifer calves $15-30 higher. Demand was very good for all classes, with little or no discount for unweaned calves if quality was good.
- Week of 10/23, 500-600 lb steers averaged $464.86 in Nebraska and $430.65 in Oklahoma (up from $402.29 the prior week). 700-800 lb steers averaged $378.13 in Nebraska and $358.89 in Oklahoma.
- Feeder and stocker marketings for the week ending 10/17 were 11.1% below the 3-year average. The prior week was 20.5% above.
- Corn is slipping. Omaha was $4.40, down from $4.52. The corn harvest is 52% complete.
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3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS
A. Record-low placements lock in tight fed supplies into 2027
The October 1 Cattle on Feed report showed:
- On feed at 99.6% of last year (Reuters rounds this to 100%).
- September placements at 87.9%, a 12% drop, against a trade guess of about 92.6%.
- Marketings at 93.4%.
Placements have now been down 9% in August, 11% in July, 3% in June and almost 10% in May. Colorado State's Stephen Koontz expects early 2027 fed supplies to be very tight, with weight gains offsetting less than half of the lost head. Peel notes cattle are staying on feed longer (the marketings rate is a record-low 14.0%), which has kept the on-feed count near year-ago levels. Heifers are 37.81% of cattle on feed versus 38.14% a year ago, which suggests slow heifer retention.
B. Packer margins slip back into the red as cash trade is pushed to late week
Packers started the week with short inventories and are now losing money again. They are likely to resist higher cash bids while feeders with deep closeouts press for them. Cold storage data added to the pressure. Total red meat stocks are up 3% from last year and pork stocks are up 9%, though beef stocks are down 1%. Hedgers also face a basis concern, because record-low placements could push deferred futures to a premium. Timing hedge lifts is harder this week with trade likely to come late.
C. USDA adds a new cash report, and Mexican cattle imports expand
- Since Monday, October 26, AMS publishes a combined negotiated cash report for Colorado, Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Kansas. Cash trade was over 50% of purchases in 2005 and under 18% in 2025, and thin trade has often made existing regional reports confidential or empty. The new report uses data already collected and requires no extra reporting from packers.
- The Columbus, New Mexico port reopened to Mexican cattle on Monday, and Nogales, Arizona is slated to open November 30. Imports were 1.25 million head in 2024 and are estimated at only 150,000 to 250,000 in 2026. New World screwworm detections in the USDA count now total 61 cases.
Also watch:
- China suspended beef imports from a Marfrig/MBRF plant in Brazil. US exports are unaffected.
- China is resuming bull semen imports under a top-10% quality rule. US and UK approvals may follow.
- Nebraska Beef and Coupang launched a direct-sourcing program for beef to South Korea.
- R-CALF's mandatory-EID lawsuit has a hearing on November 18 in Rapid City, SD.
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4. OUTLOOK
- Cash trade: Expect another late-week trade. The 5-area average ($227) is below Friday's $228-$230 trade. If packers hold their short inventory advantage, trade may be steady to slightly lower. Producers with short-supply leverage may do better holding for the higher end.
- Futures: Technically the uptrend since mid-September is intact. Koontz notes resistance from early summer and the uptrend line converge near year-end, and one has to break. Boxed beef strength is the key. Choice has bounced off last Friday's $365.79, but packers losing money limits how high they can bid. Use rallies to scale into hedges, and watch the basis on deferred contracts.
- Feeder and replacement cattle: October and November are peak replacement marketing weeks, and buyers are chasing too few cattle. Buyers are paying up for heavier weights (550-650 lb). Very light 400 lb cattle are scarce and costly. Be careful with unweaned calves, since fall health problems and death loss are worst now and the weaned-unweaned spread is widening. Get full health records on purchases.
- Feedlots: Overcapacity is real. Expect more feedyard closures or consolidation through 2027, especially among smaller yards.
- Risks: Pork and poultry supply growth, consumer pushback on price, and the Mexican border reopening. Drought has also eased across the Southern Plains with 3-8 inches of rain in Texas and Oklahoma, while worsening in the Lower Mississippi Valley. Better grazing conditions add to replacement demand.
Bottom line: Tight cattle supplies support prices, but the packer margin squeeze will shape how much of that shows up in cash bids over the next few weeks.
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October 28, 2026
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
1. MARKET SENTIMENT: BULLISH (7 out of 10)
Supply fundamentals are strongly bullish. September feedlot placements were the lowest for the month since the series began in 1996, and the feeder complex is still climbing. Two things hold the score back from higher: packer margins have turned negative again, and live cattle futures are leaning overbought with consumer demand concerns showing up. Futures are also facing competition from growing pork and poultry supplies.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
2. KEY PRICE TRENDS
Futures (Tuesday settlements, CME)
- December live cattle: 230.750 cents, down 0.350. Monday was 231.200, up 0.075.
- November feeders: 350.025 cents, up 1.475. Weaker grain markets are the driver.
- January 2027 feeders: 347.100 cents, up 1.100.
- December lean hogs: 62.025 cents, down 2.650, a fresh contract low. Iowa/southern Minnesota cash hogs are near $59/cwt, well under the cost of production.
Cash and boxed beef
- Last Friday's limited cash trade was $230 live in the South and $228 in the North, about $2 higher than the prior week. Packers had to pay up after the bullish Cattle on Feed report.
- 5-area weekly average fed steer price for the week of 10/23 was $227.06, up from $224.19 a week earlier but down from $237.89 a year ago.
- Choice boxed beef was $373.59 Tuesday morning, up $4.15. Select was $360.11, up $2.55. Last Friday's Choice-Select spread narrowed to $14.57 from $20.31.
- Packer margins are back in the red. HedgersEdge shows losses of $39.75/head Tuesday and $33.30 Monday, versus a $34.50 profit a week ago. Margins had been positive since July.
- Last week's slaughter was 546,000 head, down 7,000 from the prior week and 27,000 below last year. Beef production in September was down 6%, with cattle slaughter down 7%.
- Carcass weights are 958 lbs, up 5 lbs on the week and 12 lbs above last year. OSU's Derrell Peel notes the year-over-year gain is the smallest since February 2024, so weights may be topping out.
Feeder and replacement markets
- Oklahoma City: feeder steers $5-15 higher, 600-700 lb steers $20-30 higher, and steer and heifer calves $15-30 higher. Demand was very good for all classes, with little or no discount for unweaned calves if quality was good.
- Week of 10/23, 500-600 lb steers averaged $464.86 in Nebraska and $430.65 in Oklahoma (up from $402.29 the prior week). 700-800 lb steers averaged $378.13 in Nebraska and $358.89 in Oklahoma.
- Feeder and stocker marketings for the week ending 10/17 were 11.1% below the 3-year average. The prior week was 20.5% above.
- Corn is slipping. Omaha was $4.40, down from $4.52. The corn harvest is 52% complete.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS
A. Record-low placements lock in tight fed supplies into 2027
The October 1 Cattle on Feed report showed:
- On feed at 99.6% of last year (Reuters rounds this to 100%).
- September placements at 87.9%, a 12% drop, against a trade guess of about 92.6%.
- Marketings at 93.4%.
Placements have now been down 9% in August, 11% in July, 3% in June and almost 10% in May. Colorado State's Stephen Koontz expects early 2027 fed supplies to be very tight, with weight gains offsetting less than half of the lost head. Peel notes cattle are staying on feed longer (the marketings rate is a record-low 14.0%), which has kept the on-feed count near year-ago levels. Heifers are 37.81% of cattle on feed versus 38.14% a year ago, which suggests slow heifer retention.
B. Packer margins slip back into the red as cash trade is pushed to late week
Packers started the week with short inventories and are now losing money again. They are likely to resist higher cash bids while feeders with deep closeouts press for them. Cold storage data added to the pressure. Total red meat stocks are up 3% from last year and pork stocks are up 9%, though beef stocks are down 1%. Hedgers also face a basis concern, because record-low placements could push deferred futures to a premium. Timing hedge lifts is harder this week with trade likely to come late.
C. USDA adds a new cash report, and Mexican cattle imports expand
- Since Monday, October 26, AMS publishes a combined negotiated cash report for Colorado, Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Kansas. Cash trade was over 50% of purchases in 2005 and under 18% in 2025, and thin trade has often made existing regional reports confidential or empty. The new report uses data already collected and requires no extra reporting from packers.
- The Columbus, New Mexico port reopened to Mexican cattle on Monday, and Nogales, Arizona is slated to open November 30. Imports were 1.25 million head in 2024 and are estimated at only 150,000 to 250,000 in 2026. New World screwworm detections in the USDA count now total 61 cases.
Also watch:
- China suspended beef imports from a Marfrig/MBRF plant in Brazil. US exports are unaffected.
- China is resuming bull semen imports under a top-10% quality rule. US and UK approvals may follow.
- Nebraska Beef and Coupang launched a direct-sourcing program for beef to South Korea.
- R-CALF's mandatory-EID lawsuit has a hearing on November 18 in Rapid City, SD.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
4. OUTLOOK
- Cash trade: Expect another late-week trade. The 5-area average ($227) is below Friday's $228-$230 trade. If packers hold their short inventory advantage, trade may be steady to slightly lower. Producers with short-supply leverage may do better holding for the higher end.
- Futures: Technically the uptrend since mid-September is intact. Koontz notes resistance from early summer and the uptrend line converge near year-end, and one has to break. Boxed beef strength is the key. Choice has bounced off last Friday's $365.79, but packers losing money limits how high they can bid. Use rallies to scale into hedges, and watch the basis on deferred contracts.
- Feeder and replacement cattle: October and November are peak replacement marketing weeks, and buyers are chasing too few cattle. Buyers are paying up for heavier weights (550-650 lb). Very light 400 lb cattle are scarce and costly. Be careful with unweaned calves, since fall health problems and death loss are worst now and the weaned-unweaned spread is widening. Get full health records on purchases.
- Feedlots: Overcapacity is real. Expect more feedyard closures or consolidation through 2027, especially among smaller yards.
- Risks: Pork and poultry supply growth, consumer pushback on price, and the Mexican border reopening. Drought has also eased across the Southern Plains with 3-8 inches of rain in Texas and Oklahoma, while worsening in the Lower Mississippi Valley. Better grazing conditions add to replacement demand.
Bottom line: Tight cattle supplies support prices, but the packer margin squeeze will shape how much of that shows up in cash bids over the next few weeks.
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For more detailed information or specific market data, please contact your local extension office or market analyst.