DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
October 29, 2026
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1. MARKET SENTIMENT: MODERATELY BULLISH, 6 out of 10
Feeder and replacement cattle are bullish on historically tight supplies. The fed cattle side is cautious because packer margins are deeply negative, cash is softer, and futures are near overbought levels. Strong boxed beef, record-low placements and firm feeder futures are offset by consumer demand worries and a weak pork complex.
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2. KEY PRICE TRENDS
Futures (CME, Tuesday Oct 28)
- December live cattle: down 0.350 to 230.750 cents/lb. Monday's close was 231.200.
- November feeders: up 1.475 to 350.025.
- January 2027 feeders: up 1.100 to 347.100.
- Feeders were supported by weaker grain markets. Live cattle were pressured by consumer demand concerns.
- Data conflict: one market commentary described a "crash" in futures on Tuesday with little explanation. Reuters-reported settlements show only a modest live cattle decline, with feeders higher. Treat the "crash" description with caution until it is confirmed.
Cash fed cattle
- Light northern live trade was reported at $225, versus $228 North and $230 South the prior week.
- Dressed sales of $350-365 were wide-ranging and hard to compare.
- Packers were short-bought and pleased with the prices owners accepted. Further trade is expected late in the week, with feeders holding out for higher prices.
Boxed beef
- Choice rose $4.15 to $373.59 and Select rose $2.55 to $360.11 on Tuesday morning.
- Choice was $369.16 on Monday and averaged $365.79 for last week's close.
- Beef is gaining at the expense of pork. Pork carcasses are down to $73.09 cwt, and December lean hogs hit new contract lows at 62.025.
Packer margins
- HedgersEdge estimates packers lost $39.75 per head Tuesday, versus a loss of $33.30 Monday and a profit of $34.50 a week ago.
- Another commentary says processors have stayed profitable since July. The daily HedgersEdge numbers show that has changed sharply this week.
Slaughter
- Last week's slaughter was 546,000 head, down 7,000 from the prior week and 27,000 under last year. Plant utilization is improving.
- Carcass weights are 958 lbs, up 5 lbs on the week and 12 lbs above last year, with quality grade near record highs. Peel notes year-over-year weight gains are shrinking and weights appear to be topping out.
Feeder and replacement markets
- Oklahoma City compared to last week:
- Feeder steers: $5-15 higher.
- 600-700 lb steers: $20-30 higher.
- Feeder heifers: $2-10 higher.
- Calves: $15-30 higher.
- Demand was very good, with little to no discount for unweaned calves of quality.
- OKC West calves under 500 lbs were $10-30 higher, and heavier calves were steady.
- Feeder and stocker marketings for the week ending 10/17 were 11.1% below the 3-year average. The prior week was 20.5% above.
Grains
- Corn appears to have found support as harvest winds down. Basis is about +$1.00 in Guymon, OK against December.
- Weaker grain prices are helping feeder futures.
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3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS
1) Record-low supply signals and packer margin squeeze
- The October Cattle on Feed report showed September placements down about 12% from last year, the lowest September since the series began in 1996. Marketings were down about 7% and also a September record low.
- The on-feed inventory was roughly 100% of last year. Reports differ slightly (99.6% to 100%), but all land near year-ago levels and were friendly relative to estimates.
- Peel's analysis shows feedlots are keeping cattle longer. The marketings rate is a record-low 14.0%, and placements are down about 200,000 head per month on average.
- Packers are losing money per head even as boxed beef rallies. This sets up a tug-of-war over cash prices this week.
- Hedgers should watch basis. Record-low placements may produce a futures premium structure, and timing the lifting of hedges is increasingly difficult.
2) Replacement cattle shortage, with Mexico border reopening slowly
- Strong rains in Texas and Oklahoma, plus abundant winter grazing, are chasing too few cattle. Buyers are shifting toward 550-650 lb cattle, and 400 lb cattle are scarce and risky.
- Feedlot "right-sizing" is under way, with some closures expected through next year.
- The Columbus, NM port recently reopened to Mexican cattle, and Nogales, AZ is slated for November 30. In 2023, these four ports carried about 81% of cattle crossing the border.
- Screwworm risk remains: confirmed detections rose to 61 cases.
- Economics are a limiting factor. Deferred futures do not pay for expensive replacements, so some grazing acres may go unused.
3) Market structure and trade policy shifts
- USDA began publishing a new negotiated cash cattle report on Oct 26 that aggregates CO, TX, NM, OK and KS. Cash trade fell from over 50% of transactions in 2005 to under 18% in 2025, so this adds transparency to thin price discovery.
- China suspended beef imports from Marfrig's Promissao plant in Brazil. Marfrig is redirecting output, and US exports are unaffected.
- China resumed bull semen imports, with a top-10% quality rule. Australia and Canada are shipping, and US approval may come soon.
- The EU banned Brazilian beef on Sept 3, and EU deforestation rules begin Dec 30.
- US beef exports to China are still far below last year: 10,817 MT through August versus 67,191 MT.
- Nebraska's Coupang direct-sourcing program for Korean beef exports is a modest new demand outlet.
Also noted
- Cold storage: beef stocks were down 1% on the month and down 1% from last year. Pork stocks are up 9% from last year, which adds pressure on pork prices.
- Drought: about 50.7% of the US was in drought as of the Oct 13 data. Drought is easing in the Southern Plains but worsening in the Lower Mississippi Valley.
- Policy: the R-CALF lawsuit against mandatory electronic ear tags goes to a hearing on Nov 18. Walmart's expanding beef supply chain raises concerns about price discovery.
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4. OUTLOOK
- Fed cattle: Expect a late-week cash trade. With a short supply of cattle, a firm boxed beef market and negative packer margins, the likely range is steady to modestly lower than last week. Feeders with deep closeouts may hold out. Cash prices could move quickly in either direction.
- Futures: Tight placements and feeder supply support the market, but live cattle are near overbought levels. Expect choppy, headline-driven trading. A sharp drop on thin information, such as the one described Tuesday, argues for caution.
- Feeders and calves: Fall run pressure appears muted, and the lightening of supply supports firm to higher prices, particularly for 550-700 lb cattle. Watch for a widening of the premium for weaned calves.
- Risk management: Review hedge timing and basis exposure. Know your full-health records and sourcing, since fall weaning stress and sickness costs are high.
- Watch list: cash trade Thursday-Friday, the new USDA regional cash report, additional Mexican port openings, any China decisions on US beef plants and genetics, and further screwworm detections.
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October 29, 2026
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
1. MARKET SENTIMENT: MODERATELY BULLISH, 6 out of 10
Feeder and replacement cattle are bullish on historically tight supplies. The fed cattle side is cautious because packer margins are deeply negative, cash is softer, and futures are near overbought levels. Strong boxed beef, record-low placements and firm feeder futures are offset by consumer demand worries and a weak pork complex.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
2. KEY PRICE TRENDS
Futures (CME, Tuesday Oct 28)
- December live cattle: down 0.350 to 230.750 cents/lb. Monday's close was 231.200.
- November feeders: up 1.475 to 350.025.
- January 2027 feeders: up 1.100 to 347.100.
- Feeders were supported by weaker grain markets. Live cattle were pressured by consumer demand concerns.
- Data conflict: one market commentary described a "crash" in futures on Tuesday with little explanation. Reuters-reported settlements show only a modest live cattle decline, with feeders higher. Treat the "crash" description with caution until it is confirmed.
Cash fed cattle
- Light northern live trade was reported at $225, versus $228 North and $230 South the prior week.
- Dressed sales of $350-365 were wide-ranging and hard to compare.
- Packers were short-bought and pleased with the prices owners accepted. Further trade is expected late in the week, with feeders holding out for higher prices.
Boxed beef
- Choice rose $4.15 to $373.59 and Select rose $2.55 to $360.11 on Tuesday morning.
- Choice was $369.16 on Monday and averaged $365.79 for last week's close.
- Beef is gaining at the expense of pork. Pork carcasses are down to $73.09 cwt, and December lean hogs hit new contract lows at 62.025.
Packer margins
- HedgersEdge estimates packers lost $39.75 per head Tuesday, versus a loss of $33.30 Monday and a profit of $34.50 a week ago.
- Another commentary says processors have stayed profitable since July. The daily HedgersEdge numbers show that has changed sharply this week.
Slaughter
- Last week's slaughter was 546,000 head, down 7,000 from the prior week and 27,000 under last year. Plant utilization is improving.
- Carcass weights are 958 lbs, up 5 lbs on the week and 12 lbs above last year, with quality grade near record highs. Peel notes year-over-year weight gains are shrinking and weights appear to be topping out.
Feeder and replacement markets
- Oklahoma City compared to last week:
- Feeder steers: $5-15 higher.
- 600-700 lb steers: $20-30 higher.
- Feeder heifers: $2-10 higher.
- Calves: $15-30 higher.
- Demand was very good, with little to no discount for unweaned calves of quality.
- OKC West calves under 500 lbs were $10-30 higher, and heavier calves were steady.
- Feeder and stocker marketings for the week ending 10/17 were 11.1% below the 3-year average. The prior week was 20.5% above.
Grains
- Corn appears to have found support as harvest winds down. Basis is about +$1.00 in Guymon, OK against December.
- Weaker grain prices are helping feeder futures.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS
1) Record-low supply signals and packer margin squeeze
- The October Cattle on Feed report showed September placements down about 12% from last year, the lowest September since the series began in 1996. Marketings were down about 7% and also a September record low.
- The on-feed inventory was roughly 100% of last year. Reports differ slightly (99.6% to 100%), but all land near year-ago levels and were friendly relative to estimates.
- Peel's analysis shows feedlots are keeping cattle longer. The marketings rate is a record-low 14.0%, and placements are down about 200,000 head per month on average.
- Packers are losing money per head even as boxed beef rallies. This sets up a tug-of-war over cash prices this week.
- Hedgers should watch basis. Record-low placements may produce a futures premium structure, and timing the lifting of hedges is increasingly difficult.
2) Replacement cattle shortage, with Mexico border reopening slowly
- Strong rains in Texas and Oklahoma, plus abundant winter grazing, are chasing too few cattle. Buyers are shifting toward 550-650 lb cattle, and 400 lb cattle are scarce and risky.
- Feedlot "right-sizing" is under way, with some closures expected through next year.
- The Columbus, NM port recently reopened to Mexican cattle, and Nogales, AZ is slated for November 30. In 2023, these four ports carried about 81% of cattle crossing the border.
- Screwworm risk remains: confirmed detections rose to 61 cases.
- Economics are a limiting factor. Deferred futures do not pay for expensive replacements, so some grazing acres may go unused.
3) Market structure and trade policy shifts
- USDA began publishing a new negotiated cash cattle report on Oct 26 that aggregates CO, TX, NM, OK and KS. Cash trade fell from over 50% of transactions in 2005 to under 18% in 2025, so this adds transparency to thin price discovery.
- China suspended beef imports from Marfrig's Promissao plant in Brazil. Marfrig is redirecting output, and US exports are unaffected.
- China resumed bull semen imports, with a top-10% quality rule. Australia and Canada are shipping, and US approval may come soon.
- The EU banned Brazilian beef on Sept 3, and EU deforestation rules begin Dec 30.
- US beef exports to China are still far below last year: 10,817 MT through August versus 67,191 MT.
- Nebraska's Coupang direct-sourcing program for Korean beef exports is a modest new demand outlet.
Also noted
- Cold storage: beef stocks were down 1% on the month and down 1% from last year. Pork stocks are up 9% from last year, which adds pressure on pork prices.
- Drought: about 50.7% of the US was in drought as of the Oct 13 data. Drought is easing in the Southern Plains but worsening in the Lower Mississippi Valley.
- Policy: the R-CALF lawsuit against mandatory electronic ear tags goes to a hearing on Nov 18. Walmart's expanding beef supply chain raises concerns about price discovery.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
4. OUTLOOK
- Fed cattle: Expect a late-week cash trade. With a short supply of cattle, a firm boxed beef market and negative packer margins, the likely range is steady to modestly lower than last week. Feeders with deep closeouts may hold out. Cash prices could move quickly in either direction.
- Futures: Tight placements and feeder supply support the market, but live cattle are near overbought levels. Expect choppy, headline-driven trading. A sharp drop on thin information, such as the one described Tuesday, argues for caution.
- Feeders and calves: Fall run pressure appears muted, and the lightening of supply supports firm to higher prices, particularly for 550-700 lb cattle. Watch for a widening of the premium for weaned calves.
- Risk management: Review hedge timing and basis exposure. Know your full-health records and sourcing, since fall weaning stress and sickness costs are high.
- Watch list: cash trade Thursday-Friday, the new USDA regional cash report, additional Mexican port openings, any China decisions on US beef plants and genetics, and further screwworm detections.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
For more detailed information or specific market data, please contact your local extension office or market analyst.