DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
October 31, 2026
(Data reflects trade through Friday, October 30.)
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1. MARKET SENTIMENT: BEARISH SHORT-TERM, SUPPORTIVE LONG-TERM FUNDAMENTALS (4/10)
Futures posted their fourth straight lower close on Friday, driven by weak, thin cash trade, packer margins slipping into the red, and a risk-off tone in broader markets. Supply fundamentals remain tight, with record-low feedlot placements and strong replacement demand, which limits the downside for feeders and calves. The score reflects heavy near-term pressure on fed cattle and futures against a still-constructive supply backdrop.
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2. KEY PRICE TRENDS
Futures (Friday settlements)
- December live cattle: 220.95, down 5.35 (Thursday: 226.30; Wednesday: 227.33)
- February live cattle: 224.20, down 5.27
- November feeders: 337.77, down 8.70
- January feeders: 331.77, down 10.18
- CME Feeder Index (Thursday): 351.26, down 0.17, versus the June 26 record of 381.86
- TCR Cattle Market Index: down 3.79% on the day and 2.47% over 10 days, but still up 14.94% over 60 days and 6.94% below its 60-day high
Cash fed cattle
- South Central: live trade steady at mostly $225 on light to moderate demand
- Nebraska: live $224, down $1 on the day. Dressed trade was mostly $348 Thursday, with USDA noting dressed purchases at least $4 lower than last week.
- Western Cornbelt: too few trades for an adequate market test
- Formula net dressed price: $372.40 at a 939-lb average weight
- Negotiated volume: 10,596 head confirmed, versus 581 a week ago
- Southern trade has been thin all week, and traders cite disappointment over how quiet cash markets have been.
Boxed beef
- Choice cutout: $364.66, down $2.62
- Select cutout: $351.98, up $0.35
- Choice/Select spread: $12.68
- Cutter cow cutout: $298.37, down $10.13, as lean beef struggles against imports and rising seasonal cow slaughter
Packers and slaughter
- Friday slaughter was 96,000 head. Week-to-date is 530,000, versus 526,000 last week and 555,155 last year.
- Packer margins swung from a $50.15/head profit a week ago to losses of $39.75 on Tuesday and $18.75 on Wednesday (HedgersEdge).
- Plant utilization has improved, and processors had stayed profitable since July. Negative midweek margins could prompt slower kills.
- Carcass weights are 958 lbs, up 5 lbs on the week. Steer weights appear to be topping out, up only 7 lbs year over year, the smallest gain since February 2024.
Feeder and replacement markets
- Oklahoma City feeder steers were $5-$15 higher, 600-700 lb steers $20-$30 higher, and steer and heifer calves $15-$30 higher. Demand was very good, with little to no discount on unweaned calves if quality was there.
- OKC West calves under 500 lbs were $10-$30 higher, while calves over 500 lbs were unevenly steady.
- The national feeder and stocker marketing count for the week ended 10/17 was 11.1% below the 3-year average.
- Generous rain and abundant winter grazing are meeting a shortage of animals. Stockers are shifting toward 550-650 lb cattle, and the spread between weaned and unweaned calves is widening.
Pork, grains and other markets
- Pork is the main competitor. The pork carcass cutout is $70.69, the lowest since December 2020, and December lean hogs ended Thursday at 59.825. With Choice beef near $367, the unusually wide beef-pork spread may shift retail and holiday demand toward pork.
- Beef net export sales for the week ended October 22 were 11,000 tons, down 41% from the prior week and down 33% from the four-week average.
- December corn closed at $4.4775, down 3.5 cents. The Guymon, OK basis is near +$1.00 under the December contract.
- December crude is at $103.09. Equities fell sharply, with the Dow down 575 points and the Nasdaq down 748.
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3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS
1) Screwworm Reaches a Third State
- USDA confirmed New World screwworm in a dog in Cochise County, Arizona, the first Arizona case. It follows detections in Texas and New Mexico, including an elk in Texas last week.
- Cases since June total 71, up from 61 a week earlier, and 18 are active. Only two were active a month ago.
- USDA is restricting animal movement within a 20-km zone and releasing sterile flies.
- Mexican cattle imports resumed at three ports in Arizona and New Mexico. The next planned reopening is Nogales, AZ on November 30, if conditions allow. Further spread could delay that, which would keep feeder supplies tight but add trade and disease-control risk.
2) Cash Market Transparency and Weak Price Discovery
- Starting October 26, USDA AMS added a regional negotiated cash cattle report combining Colorado, Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Kansas. This follows the fall of cash purchases from over 50% of transactions in 2005 to under 18% in 2025.
- The change has not yet produced reported southern trade. Thin negotiated volume continues to undermine benchmarks for formula sales and is fueling debate over packer power.
- R-CALF has raised concerns about Walmart's growing vertical integration in beef.
3) Record-Low Feedlot Placements, and Feedlot Stress
- The October Cattle on Feed report put the inventory at about 11.37-11.4 million head, fractionally below a year ago. September placements were 12% below last year, the lowest September since the series began in 1996.
- September marketings were 6.6-7% lower, also a September record low.
- Placements have averaged 200,000 head per month below the prior year. Cattle are staying on feed longer, with the marketing rate at a record-low 14.0%.
- Feeding-sector overcapacity is driving losses, and some feedyard closures are expected through next year. Even so, tight feeder supply supports calf and stocker prices.
- USDA beef production in September was 6% lower, with cattle slaughter down 7%.
Also noteworthy:
- USDA announced $57.4 million in tentative MPPEP awards (147 projects in 40 states) to expand independent processing capacity.
- USDA backed a $24.6 million loan for a 400-head-per-day plant in Dimmitt, TX.
- The Cold Storage report showed beef stocks down 1% year over year, while pork stocks were up 9%.
- CoBank notes the cattle herd barely grew (94.2 million head in July, up 0.2%), beef cow numbers kept falling, and beef imports are filling the supply gap.
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4. OUTLOOK
- Near term (1-2 weeks): Expect volatile, defensive trade in fed cattle and futures after a four-session slide. Key signals are whether packers bid for cattle next week with margins negative, whether southern cash trade finally shows up in the new five-state report, and whether the cutout stabilizes around $360-365. Cheap pork and weak beef exports are headwinds going into the holidays.
- Feeder and stocker cattle: Cash feeder and calf markets are firm because supplies are short, grazing is abundant and demand is strong, but deferred futures show little margin for buyers at current prices. Be selective on purchases, and pay attention to weaning, health records and preconditioning given the widening weaned/unweaned spread. Heavier 550-650 lb cattle are in demand.
- Screwworm: This is the biggest wildcard. A delayed Mexican border reopening is
October 31, 2026
(Data reflects trade through Friday, October 30.)
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
1. MARKET SENTIMENT: BEARISH SHORT-TERM, SUPPORTIVE LONG-TERM FUNDAMENTALS (4/10)
Futures posted their fourth straight lower close on Friday, driven by weak, thin cash trade, packer margins slipping into the red, and a risk-off tone in broader markets. Supply fundamentals remain tight, with record-low feedlot placements and strong replacement demand, which limits the downside for feeders and calves. The score reflects heavy near-term pressure on fed cattle and futures against a still-constructive supply backdrop.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
2. KEY PRICE TRENDS
Futures (Friday settlements)
- December live cattle: 220.95, down 5.35 (Thursday: 226.30; Wednesday: 227.33)
- February live cattle: 224.20, down 5.27
- November feeders: 337.77, down 8.70
- January feeders: 331.77, down 10.18
- CME Feeder Index (Thursday): 351.26, down 0.17, versus the June 26 record of 381.86
- TCR Cattle Market Index: down 3.79% on the day and 2.47% over 10 days, but still up 14.94% over 60 days and 6.94% below its 60-day high
Cash fed cattle
- South Central: live trade steady at mostly $225 on light to moderate demand
- Nebraska: live $224, down $1 on the day. Dressed trade was mostly $348 Thursday, with USDA noting dressed purchases at least $4 lower than last week.
- Western Cornbelt: too few trades for an adequate market test
- Formula net dressed price: $372.40 at a 939-lb average weight
- Negotiated volume: 10,596 head confirmed, versus 581 a week ago
- Southern trade has been thin all week, and traders cite disappointment over how quiet cash markets have been.
Boxed beef
- Choice cutout: $364.66, down $2.62
- Select cutout: $351.98, up $0.35
- Choice/Select spread: $12.68
- Cutter cow cutout: $298.37, down $10.13, as lean beef struggles against imports and rising seasonal cow slaughter
Packers and slaughter
- Friday slaughter was 96,000 head. Week-to-date is 530,000, versus 526,000 last week and 555,155 last year.
- Packer margins swung from a $50.15/head profit a week ago to losses of $39.75 on Tuesday and $18.75 on Wednesday (HedgersEdge).
- Plant utilization has improved, and processors had stayed profitable since July. Negative midweek margins could prompt slower kills.
- Carcass weights are 958 lbs, up 5 lbs on the week. Steer weights appear to be topping out, up only 7 lbs year over year, the smallest gain since February 2024.
Feeder and replacement markets
- Oklahoma City feeder steers were $5-$15 higher, 600-700 lb steers $20-$30 higher, and steer and heifer calves $15-$30 higher. Demand was very good, with little to no discount on unweaned calves if quality was there.
- OKC West calves under 500 lbs were $10-$30 higher, while calves over 500 lbs were unevenly steady.
- The national feeder and stocker marketing count for the week ended 10/17 was 11.1% below the 3-year average.
- Generous rain and abundant winter grazing are meeting a shortage of animals. Stockers are shifting toward 550-650 lb cattle, and the spread between weaned and unweaned calves is widening.
Pork, grains and other markets
- Pork is the main competitor. The pork carcass cutout is $70.69, the lowest since December 2020, and December lean hogs ended Thursday at 59.825. With Choice beef near $367, the unusually wide beef-pork spread may shift retail and holiday demand toward pork.
- Beef net export sales for the week ended October 22 were 11,000 tons, down 41% from the prior week and down 33% from the four-week average.
- December corn closed at $4.4775, down 3.5 cents. The Guymon, OK basis is near +$1.00 under the December contract.
- December crude is at $103.09. Equities fell sharply, with the Dow down 575 points and the Nasdaq down 748.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS
1) Screwworm Reaches a Third State
- USDA confirmed New World screwworm in a dog in Cochise County, Arizona, the first Arizona case. It follows detections in Texas and New Mexico, including an elk in Texas last week.
- Cases since June total 71, up from 61 a week earlier, and 18 are active. Only two were active a month ago.
- USDA is restricting animal movement within a 20-km zone and releasing sterile flies.
- Mexican cattle imports resumed at three ports in Arizona and New Mexico. The next planned reopening is Nogales, AZ on November 30, if conditions allow. Further spread could delay that, which would keep feeder supplies tight but add trade and disease-control risk.
2) Cash Market Transparency and Weak Price Discovery
- Starting October 26, USDA AMS added a regional negotiated cash cattle report combining Colorado, Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Kansas. This follows the fall of cash purchases from over 50% of transactions in 2005 to under 18% in 2025.
- The change has not yet produced reported southern trade. Thin negotiated volume continues to undermine benchmarks for formula sales and is fueling debate over packer power.
- R-CALF has raised concerns about Walmart's growing vertical integration in beef.
3) Record-Low Feedlot Placements, and Feedlot Stress
- The October Cattle on Feed report put the inventory at about 11.37-11.4 million head, fractionally below a year ago. September placements were 12% below last year, the lowest September since the series began in 1996.
- September marketings were 6.6-7% lower, also a September record low.
- Placements have averaged 200,000 head per month below the prior year. Cattle are staying on feed longer, with the marketing rate at a record-low 14.0%.
- Feeding-sector overcapacity is driving losses, and some feedyard closures are expected through next year. Even so, tight feeder supply supports calf and stocker prices.
- USDA beef production in September was 6% lower, with cattle slaughter down 7%.
Also noteworthy:
- USDA announced $57.4 million in tentative MPPEP awards (147 projects in 40 states) to expand independent processing capacity.
- USDA backed a $24.6 million loan for a 400-head-per-day plant in Dimmitt, TX.
- The Cold Storage report showed beef stocks down 1% year over year, while pork stocks were up 9%.
- CoBank notes the cattle herd barely grew (94.2 million head in July, up 0.2%), beef cow numbers kept falling, and beef imports are filling the supply gap.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
4. OUTLOOK
- Near term (1-2 weeks): Expect volatile, defensive trade in fed cattle and futures after a four-session slide. Key signals are whether packers bid for cattle next week with margins negative, whether southern cash trade finally shows up in the new five-state report, and whether the cutout stabilizes around $360-365. Cheap pork and weak beef exports are headwinds going into the holidays.
- Feeder and stocker cattle: Cash feeder and calf markets are firm because supplies are short, grazing is abundant and demand is strong, but deferred futures show little margin for buyers at current prices. Be selective on purchases, and pay attention to weaning, health records and preconditioning given the widening weaned/unweaned spread. Heavier 550-650 lb cattle are in demand.
- Screwworm: This is the biggest wildcard. A delayed Mexican border reopening is
For more detailed information or specific market data, please contact your local extension office or market analyst.