DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
November 4, 2026
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1. MARKET SENTIMENT: BEARISH (SHORT TERM), SCORE 4 OF 10
Futures have fallen six sessions in a row. Monday's attempted bounce in live cattle failed after last week's sharp break. Cash trade is following lower, and calf markets are taking the hardest hit. Underneath, the structure is still supportive: record-low placements, tight feeder supplies, steady boxed beef and profitable packers. This looks like a sentiment and positioning selloff rather than a fundamental collapse. Nobody has found a single cause. Lender hedging pressure, macro factors and election jitters are all being blamed.
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2. KEY PRICE TRENDS
Fed cattle
- Early-week Nebraska trade is at $218 live and $340 dressed, $7-10 below last week.
- Last week's Nebraska trade was $225 live and $350-355 dressed, down $3-4 live and $5-10 dressed. Iowa sellers released cattle at $223-224.
- Show lists were flat in Kansas and lower in Texas and Nebraska.
- The 5-Area weighted average for the week of 10/30 was $223.73 live, down from $227.08 the prior week and $230.86 a year ago. Dressed was $352.19, down from $360.79.
- Packers are expected to keep working Iowa for the weakest sellers early in the week.
Boxed beef and slaughter
- Choice cutout was $368.52 (down from $370.55). The Choice-Select spread narrowed to $13.47 from $14.57.
- Weekly slaughter was 543,000 head, 3,000 under the prior week and 14,000 under last year.
- Box prices appear balanced at a 540,000+ head pace.
- Packers have stayed profitable since July, the longest stretch in several years.
- Lean beef remains pressured by imports as cow slaughter rises seasonally.
Carcass weights
- Weights are 958 lbs, up 5 lbs on the week and 12 lbs above last year.
- Quality grade is 87.4% Choice/Prime, near historic highs.
- Oklahoma State's Derrell Peel notes weights may be topping out. The latest steer weight was up only 7 lbs year over year, the smallest gain since February 2024.
Feeders and calves
- Oklahoma City yearling feeders were $4-12 lower, and 60-day weaned feeders were sharply lower. Calves were $10-20 lower, with some down $30. Demand was described as "moderate at best."
- Weekly regional averages were mixed:
- Nebraska 700-800 lb steers: $372.75, down from $378.13.
- Nebraska 500-600 lb steers: $458.40, down from $464.86.
- Oklahoma 700-800 lb steers: $361.80, up from $358.89.
- Oklahoma 500-600 lb steers: $437.38, up from $430.65.
- Montana 500-600 lb steers: $450.25, up from $426.00.
- Feeder and stocker marketings for the week ending 10/24 were 3.7% above the 3-year average. The prior week was 11.1% below.
- Stocker operators are shifting toward heavier 550-650 lb cattle. Small lots of 400 lb calves are hard to buy and carry health risk.
- The premium for weaned over unweaned calves is widening.
Grains
- Omaha corn was $4.26, down from $4.40 the week before and up from $4.05 a year ago.
- Corn harvest is 74% complete.
- USDA raised its corn yield estimate 3 bushels to 181 after correcting an irrigated/dryland acreage error in Kansas, Nebraska and one other state.
- Basis in Guymon, OK is near +$1.00 against December.
- Winter wheat is 44% good to excellent.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS
1) Futures slide and falling cash
The six-day losing streak in futures is feeding into cash trade, and the "which came first" debate continues. Calf and yearling markets absorbed the largest drops as deferred futures made forward feeder margins look unattractive. Many buyers are not finding a profit path on winter grazing purchases. Some farm ground may go unstocked in favor of grain.
2) Supply tightness is deepening, with only a modest herd-rebuilding signal
- September placements were 1.78 million head, down 12% and the lowest September since records began in 1996. Marketings were down 7%, also a September record low. The October 1 on-feed inventory was 11.4 million head, slightly below last year.
- Peel notes cattle are staying on feed longer, with the marketing rate at a record-low 14.0%. This explains the heavy carcass weights.
- Heifer slaughter is down more than 11% year over year, which hints at modestly higher heifer retention. At least 200,000 head of replacement heifers are needed just to hold the herd flat. Cow culling is projected at a record-low 7.35% in 2026.
- Herd growth going into 2027 looks limited.
- Feedlot capacity is also being rightsized. Closures of some yards are expected to continue through next year.
3) Price reporting and policy shifts
- USDA-AMS began publishing a new regional negotiated fed cattle report combining Kansas, Colorado and Texas-Oklahoma-New Mexico. Kansas negotiated data has been withheld since mid-August, Texas-Oklahoma-New Mexico since early July, and Colorado since late 2022. Kansas State's Glynn Tonsor cautions that aggregation may improve reportability at the cost of information content.
- The cash mandate debate is heating up. R-CALF is pushing minimum negotiated purchases at each plant, while economists argue mandates would carry costs for producers.
- USDA is moving forward with MPPEP grants to expand independent processing capacity, including nearly $4 million for 10 Kansas processors. The wider program totals $57 million across 40 states.
- Walmart's expanding vertical integration is drawing scrutiny over market access and price discovery.
Also on the radar
- New World screwworm detections reached 71 as of October 29, up from 61 the week before, including the first case in Arizona.
- HPAI H5N1 was confirmed in an Indiana dairy herd, the first for that state. Twenty-one states have now had affected dairy herds.
- Purdue/CME farmer sentiment rose to 126, helped by government payments. Confidence in tariffs fell, and only 35% now believe they will strengthen agriculture in the long run.
- Expect 150,000-250,000 head of Mexican feeder cattle to enter the supply going into 2027. Imported beef is forecast at 6.0 billion lbs for 2026.
- Beef cold storage stocks were down 1% from last year.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
4. OUTLOOK
- Near term (this week): Expect continued pressure on cash and futures. Packers are well covered and are working the weakest sellers. A bounce needs futures to st
November 4, 2026
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
1. MARKET SENTIMENT: BEARISH (SHORT TERM), SCORE 4 OF 10
Futures have fallen six sessions in a row. Monday's attempted bounce in live cattle failed after last week's sharp break. Cash trade is following lower, and calf markets are taking the hardest hit. Underneath, the structure is still supportive: record-low placements, tight feeder supplies, steady boxed beef and profitable packers. This looks like a sentiment and positioning selloff rather than a fundamental collapse. Nobody has found a single cause. Lender hedging pressure, macro factors and election jitters are all being blamed.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
2. KEY PRICE TRENDS
Fed cattle
- Early-week Nebraska trade is at $218 live and $340 dressed, $7-10 below last week.
- Last week's Nebraska trade was $225 live and $350-355 dressed, down $3-4 live and $5-10 dressed. Iowa sellers released cattle at $223-224.
- Show lists were flat in Kansas and lower in Texas and Nebraska.
- The 5-Area weighted average for the week of 10/30 was $223.73 live, down from $227.08 the prior week and $230.86 a year ago. Dressed was $352.19, down from $360.79.
- Packers are expected to keep working Iowa for the weakest sellers early in the week.
Boxed beef and slaughter
- Choice cutout was $368.52 (down from $370.55). The Choice-Select spread narrowed to $13.47 from $14.57.
- Weekly slaughter was 543,000 head, 3,000 under the prior week and 14,000 under last year.
- Box prices appear balanced at a 540,000+ head pace.
- Packers have stayed profitable since July, the longest stretch in several years.
- Lean beef remains pressured by imports as cow slaughter rises seasonally.
Carcass weights
- Weights are 958 lbs, up 5 lbs on the week and 12 lbs above last year.
- Quality grade is 87.4% Choice/Prime, near historic highs.
- Oklahoma State's Derrell Peel notes weights may be topping out. The latest steer weight was up only 7 lbs year over year, the smallest gain since February 2024.
Feeders and calves
- Oklahoma City yearling feeders were $4-12 lower, and 60-day weaned feeders were sharply lower. Calves were $10-20 lower, with some down $30. Demand was described as "moderate at best."
- Weekly regional averages were mixed:
- Nebraska 700-800 lb steers: $372.75, down from $378.13.
- Nebraska 500-600 lb steers: $458.40, down from $464.86.
- Oklahoma 700-800 lb steers: $361.80, up from $358.89.
- Oklahoma 500-600 lb steers: $437.38, up from $430.65.
- Montana 500-600 lb steers: $450.25, up from $426.00.
- Feeder and stocker marketings for the week ending 10/24 were 3.7% above the 3-year average. The prior week was 11.1% below.
- Stocker operators are shifting toward heavier 550-650 lb cattle. Small lots of 400 lb calves are hard to buy and carry health risk.
- The premium for weaned over unweaned calves is widening.
Grains
- Omaha corn was $4.26, down from $4.40 the week before and up from $4.05 a year ago.
- Corn harvest is 74% complete.
- USDA raised its corn yield estimate 3 bushels to 181 after correcting an irrigated/dryland acreage error in Kansas, Nebraska and one other state.
- Basis in Guymon, OK is near +$1.00 against December.
- Winter wheat is 44% good to excellent.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS
1) Futures slide and falling cash
The six-day losing streak in futures is feeding into cash trade, and the "which came first" debate continues. Calf and yearling markets absorbed the largest drops as deferred futures made forward feeder margins look unattractive. Many buyers are not finding a profit path on winter grazing purchases. Some farm ground may go unstocked in favor of grain.
2) Supply tightness is deepening, with only a modest herd-rebuilding signal
- September placements were 1.78 million head, down 12% and the lowest September since records began in 1996. Marketings were down 7%, also a September record low. The October 1 on-feed inventory was 11.4 million head, slightly below last year.
- Peel notes cattle are staying on feed longer, with the marketing rate at a record-low 14.0%. This explains the heavy carcass weights.
- Heifer slaughter is down more than 11% year over year, which hints at modestly higher heifer retention. At least 200,000 head of replacement heifers are needed just to hold the herd flat. Cow culling is projected at a record-low 7.35% in 2026.
- Herd growth going into 2027 looks limited.
- Feedlot capacity is also being rightsized. Closures of some yards are expected to continue through next year.
3) Price reporting and policy shifts
- USDA-AMS began publishing a new regional negotiated fed cattle report combining Kansas, Colorado and Texas-Oklahoma-New Mexico. Kansas negotiated data has been withheld since mid-August, Texas-Oklahoma-New Mexico since early July, and Colorado since late 2022. Kansas State's Glynn Tonsor cautions that aggregation may improve reportability at the cost of information content.
- The cash mandate debate is heating up. R-CALF is pushing minimum negotiated purchases at each plant, while economists argue mandates would carry costs for producers.
- USDA is moving forward with MPPEP grants to expand independent processing capacity, including nearly $4 million for 10 Kansas processors. The wider program totals $57 million across 40 states.
- Walmart's expanding vertical integration is drawing scrutiny over market access and price discovery.
Also on the radar
- New World screwworm detections reached 71 as of October 29, up from 61 the week before, including the first case in Arizona.
- HPAI H5N1 was confirmed in an Indiana dairy herd, the first for that state. Twenty-one states have now had affected dairy herds.
- Purdue/CME farmer sentiment rose to 126, helped by government payments. Confidence in tariffs fell, and only 35% now believe they will strengthen agriculture in the long run.
- Expect 150,000-250,000 head of Mexican feeder cattle to enter the supply going into 2027. Imported beef is forecast at 6.0 billion lbs for 2026.
- Beef cold storage stocks were down 1% from last year.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
4. OUTLOOK
- Near term (this week): Expect continued pressure on cash and futures. Packers are well covered and are working the weakest sellers. A bounce needs futures to st
For more detailed information or specific market data, please contact your local extension office or market analyst.