DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
November 5, 2026
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1. MARKET SENTIMENT: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH LONG-TERM, SOFT NEAR-TERM (6 out of 10)
Supply fundamentals remain strongly supportive. Placements are at record lows, slaughter is down 7.1% year to date, and herd rebuilding is barely under way. Futures are the weak spot. Traders are worried about demand for costly beef, and live cattle have fallen six sessions in a row. New World Screwworm (NWS) cases are also rising quickly, which adds headline risk. We hold at 6 because the supply backdrop is solid but price momentum has turned lower.
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2. KEY PRICE TRENDS
- Live cattle: CME December live cattle closed down 1.55 cents at 218.15, the lowest since September 18. That is a sixth straight down session.
- Feeder cattle: January feeders fell 4.3 cents to 328.375, the lowest since October 8. Analysts cited uncertainty over demand for high-priced U.S. beef.
- Other proteins: December lean hogs hit a contract low of 57.425 before closing at 58.600. They are down 27.5% since late July on weak pork demand, with consumers pinched by gasoline costs. This shows consumer spending pressure across proteins.
- Slaughter: Tuesday's kill was an estimated 110,000 head, down 7.9% from last year. Year-to-date slaughter is down 7.1% on tight inventories.
- Feeder and stocker marketings: Volume for the week ending 10/24 was 3.7% above the 3-year average. The prior week was 11.1% below. This is a seasonal rebound in fall movement.
- Cold storage: Beef stocks on September 30 were down 1% from both last month and last year. Pork stocks were up 9% from last year, and chicken was down 5%.
- Feed and inputs: Corn harvest is 74% complete, up from 60% a week earlier. ADM raised its 2026 profit outlook on strong processing margins. Corn and soybean prices have surged since the Iran conflict began, and oil prices remain elevated. Higher input costs are the top concern in the latest farmer sentiment survey, though the Purdue/CME barometer rose to 126 on government payments.
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3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS
A. Futures slide on beef demand doubts
Cattle futures extended losses as traders questioned how much more consumers will pay for beef. The slide came despite shrinking slaughter and supplies. This looks more like a demand-sentiment correction than a change in supply fundamentals. Kansas State's Glynn Tonsor notes that retail beef demand set a record in 2025. He estimates a 1% rise in retail demand lifts fed cattle prices about 1.5% and feeder prices about 2.5%, so demand softness would hit feeders hardest.
B. New World Screwworm cases jump to 99
Confirmed detections rose to 99 for the week ending November 3, up from 71 the week before and 61 the week before that. The prior update included the first Arizona detection. The pace of increase is accelerating, which raises the risk of movement restrictions and market volatility. Commentary also points to another border opening and new NWS policy. Beef Magazine expects 150,000 to 250,000 Mexican feeder cattle to be fed in the U.S. going into 2027, but NWS developments could change that timeline.
C. Record-low placements and a slow herd rebuild
September feedlot placements were the lowest for the month since the series began in 1996, at 1.78 million head, down 12%. Marketings were also a September record low at 1.52 million, down 7%. The October 1 inventory was about 11.4 million head, roughly flat with last year. Oklahoma State's Derrell Peel notes that cattle are staying on feed longer and being marketed at a record-slow rate. Steer carcass weights appear to be topping out, up only 7 pounds year over year, the smallest gain since February 2024.
Herd rebuilding remains modest. Cow culling is projected at a record-low 7.35% in 2026, and heifer slaughter is down over 11% year to date. But the January and July inventory reports showed replacement heifer gains of only about 42,000 and 100,000 head. At least 200,000 head are needed just to maintain the current herd. Peel sees limited herd growth going into 2027.
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OTHER ITEMS WORTH NOTING
- Drought: About 41.4% of the U.S. is in drought, but the Four Corners, Southern Plains and Central Plains saw widespread improvement. The Southeast is a trouble spot. On October 27, 96% of Arkansas beef cows were in drought, and 77% of Mississippi beef cows were in severe drought or worse. That means less stockpiled forage, earlier hay feeding and possible deeper culls or fewer heifers retained. Producers in drought counties should check Livestock Forage Disaster Program eligibility with their FSA office.
- Price reporting: USDA-AMS began publishing a new regional negotiated fed cattle report combining Kansas, Colorado and Texas-Oklahoma-New Mexico. Individual state reports have been withheld due to thin trade. Tonsor cautions that aggregation may lose information content.
- Processing: USDA is moving ahead with $57 million in MPPEP processing grants across 40 states, including nearly $4 million for 10 Kansas processors and $1.1 million for six in Illinois. The grants support independent packer capacity and more local market options.
- Trade: Trump said a Canada trade deal is near. Prime Minister Carney said progress has been made but work remains. Canada is a two-way cattle trade partner, with about 550,000 head imported and about 490,000 feeders exported annually.
- Animal health: HPAI H5N1 was confirmed in an Indiana dairy herd, the first for the state and the 21st state affected. USDA says there is no risk to the milk supply.
- Winter wheat: Condition is 44% good to excellent, relevant for wheat pasture. As of October 25, 76% was planted and 53% emerged.
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4. OUTLOOK
- Near term: Expect choppy, range-bound trade with downside risk while the demand debate plays out. Tight kills and cattle supplies should limit deep declines. Consider using price protection for fall and winter marketings, since the six-session slide shows how fast sentiment can turn.
- Screwworm: Watch weekly NWS counts and any movement restrictions or changes to Mexican cattle import plans. Rapid case growth is a volatility driver in both directions. It threatens feeder supply and trade, but it could also support prices if supplies tighten further.
- Supply story: Record-low placements, record-low culling and slow herd rebuilding keep the multi-year outlook supportive for cow-calf and stocker operators. Feedlot carcass weights are leveling off, so extra beef tonnage from heavier carcasses should fade.
- Herd decisions: Little evidence points to aggressive expansion. Heifer retention is modest and is being delayed in drought areas, especially the Southeast. Producers deciding on retention should weigh forage and hay availability against strong calf values.
- Inputs and demand: High fuel, fertilizer and feed costs squeeze margins and consumer budgets. Watch retail beef demand and weekly boxed beef values for confirmation or relief from the futures decline.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Bottom line: Tight supply remains the foundation, but demand worries and screwworm headlines are driving near-term volatility.
November 5, 2026
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
1. MARKET SENTIMENT: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH LONG-TERM, SOFT NEAR-TERM (6 out of 10)
Supply fundamentals remain strongly supportive. Placements are at record lows, slaughter is down 7.1% year to date, and herd rebuilding is barely under way. Futures are the weak spot. Traders are worried about demand for costly beef, and live cattle have fallen six sessions in a row. New World Screwworm (NWS) cases are also rising quickly, which adds headline risk. We hold at 6 because the supply backdrop is solid but price momentum has turned lower.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
2. KEY PRICE TRENDS
- Live cattle: CME December live cattle closed down 1.55 cents at 218.15, the lowest since September 18. That is a sixth straight down session.
- Feeder cattle: January feeders fell 4.3 cents to 328.375, the lowest since October 8. Analysts cited uncertainty over demand for high-priced U.S. beef.
- Other proteins: December lean hogs hit a contract low of 57.425 before closing at 58.600. They are down 27.5% since late July on weak pork demand, with consumers pinched by gasoline costs. This shows consumer spending pressure across proteins.
- Slaughter: Tuesday's kill was an estimated 110,000 head, down 7.9% from last year. Year-to-date slaughter is down 7.1% on tight inventories.
- Feeder and stocker marketings: Volume for the week ending 10/24 was 3.7% above the 3-year average. The prior week was 11.1% below. This is a seasonal rebound in fall movement.
- Cold storage: Beef stocks on September 30 were down 1% from both last month and last year. Pork stocks were up 9% from last year, and chicken was down 5%.
- Feed and inputs: Corn harvest is 74% complete, up from 60% a week earlier. ADM raised its 2026 profit outlook on strong processing margins. Corn and soybean prices have surged since the Iran conflict began, and oil prices remain elevated. Higher input costs are the top concern in the latest farmer sentiment survey, though the Purdue/CME barometer rose to 126 on government payments.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS
A. Futures slide on beef demand doubts
Cattle futures extended losses as traders questioned how much more consumers will pay for beef. The slide came despite shrinking slaughter and supplies. This looks more like a demand-sentiment correction than a change in supply fundamentals. Kansas State's Glynn Tonsor notes that retail beef demand set a record in 2025. He estimates a 1% rise in retail demand lifts fed cattle prices about 1.5% and feeder prices about 2.5%, so demand softness would hit feeders hardest.
B. New World Screwworm cases jump to 99
Confirmed detections rose to 99 for the week ending November 3, up from 71 the week before and 61 the week before that. The prior update included the first Arizona detection. The pace of increase is accelerating, which raises the risk of movement restrictions and market volatility. Commentary also points to another border opening and new NWS policy. Beef Magazine expects 150,000 to 250,000 Mexican feeder cattle to be fed in the U.S. going into 2027, but NWS developments could change that timeline.
C. Record-low placements and a slow herd rebuild
September feedlot placements were the lowest for the month since the series began in 1996, at 1.78 million head, down 12%. Marketings were also a September record low at 1.52 million, down 7%. The October 1 inventory was about 11.4 million head, roughly flat with last year. Oklahoma State's Derrell Peel notes that cattle are staying on feed longer and being marketed at a record-slow rate. Steer carcass weights appear to be topping out, up only 7 pounds year over year, the smallest gain since February 2024.
Herd rebuilding remains modest. Cow culling is projected at a record-low 7.35% in 2026, and heifer slaughter is down over 11% year to date. But the January and July inventory reports showed replacement heifer gains of only about 42,000 and 100,000 head. At least 200,000 head are needed just to maintain the current herd. Peel sees limited herd growth going into 2027.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
OTHER ITEMS WORTH NOTING
- Drought: About 41.4% of the U.S. is in drought, but the Four Corners, Southern Plains and Central Plains saw widespread improvement. The Southeast is a trouble spot. On October 27, 96% of Arkansas beef cows were in drought, and 77% of Mississippi beef cows were in severe drought or worse. That means less stockpiled forage, earlier hay feeding and possible deeper culls or fewer heifers retained. Producers in drought counties should check Livestock Forage Disaster Program eligibility with their FSA office.
- Price reporting: USDA-AMS began publishing a new regional negotiated fed cattle report combining Kansas, Colorado and Texas-Oklahoma-New Mexico. Individual state reports have been withheld due to thin trade. Tonsor cautions that aggregation may lose information content.
- Processing: USDA is moving ahead with $57 million in MPPEP processing grants across 40 states, including nearly $4 million for 10 Kansas processors and $1.1 million for six in Illinois. The grants support independent packer capacity and more local market options.
- Trade: Trump said a Canada trade deal is near. Prime Minister Carney said progress has been made but work remains. Canada is a two-way cattle trade partner, with about 550,000 head imported and about 490,000 feeders exported annually.
- Animal health: HPAI H5N1 was confirmed in an Indiana dairy herd, the first for the state and the 21st state affected. USDA says there is no risk to the milk supply.
- Winter wheat: Condition is 44% good to excellent, relevant for wheat pasture. As of October 25, 76% was planted and 53% emerged.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
4. OUTLOOK
- Near term: Expect choppy, range-bound trade with downside risk while the demand debate plays out. Tight kills and cattle supplies should limit deep declines. Consider using price protection for fall and winter marketings, since the six-session slide shows how fast sentiment can turn.
- Screwworm: Watch weekly NWS counts and any movement restrictions or changes to Mexican cattle import plans. Rapid case growth is a volatility driver in both directions. It threatens feeder supply and trade, but it could also support prices if supplies tighten further.
- Supply story: Record-low placements, record-low culling and slow herd rebuilding keep the multi-year outlook supportive for cow-calf and stocker operators. Feedlot carcass weights are leveling off, so extra beef tonnage from heavier carcasses should fade.
- Herd decisions: Little evidence points to aggressive expansion. Heifer retention is modest and is being delayed in drought areas, especially the Southeast. Producers deciding on retention should weigh forage and hay availability against strong calf values.
- Inputs and demand: High fuel, fertilizer and feed costs squeeze margins and consumer budgets. Watch retail beef demand and weekly boxed beef values for confirmation or relief from the futures decline.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Bottom line: Tight supply remains the foundation, but demand worries and screwworm headlines are driving near-term volatility.
For more detailed information or specific market data, please contact your local extension office or market analyst.