DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
November 6, 2026
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1. MARKET SENTIMENT: BEARISH (3 out of 10)
Cattle futures have fallen eight straight sessions, and cash trade is $7-15 lower on the week. Feeder markets are repricing sharply lower. A broad equity selloff and a worsening screwworm picture add to the pressure. Tight supplies and healthy packer margins keep this from being a deeper bearish call.
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2. KEY PRICE TRENDS
Futures (Thursday, Nov. 5 settlements)
- December live cattle: 214.40, down 3.50. This is the lowest since early September and the eighth straight lower close.
- February live cattle: 217.62, down 3.20. April: 220.42, down 2.78.
- November feeders: 325.05, down 6.97. January feeders: 320.32, down 6.40, the lowest since late September.
- CME Feeder Index: 342.76, down 3.82. It is well off the June 26 record of 381.86.
- TCR's Cattle Market Index fell 3.73% on the day and 10.31% over 10 days.
Cash fed cattle
- South Central: $218 live, down $7 from last week.
- Nebraska: $214-216 live, mostly $214 (TCR). Reuters brokers cited $217 in Nebraska and $216 in Iowa, down about $7.
- Dressed trade: $335-340 in the north.
- Western Cornbelt: $210-214.50 live.
- Heavy northern cattle are under the most pressure. Mud and cold hurt feedlot performance, and corn harvest is wrapping up (74% complete), so more heavy cattle are being marketed.
Boxed beef
- Choice: 361.56, down 0.94. Select: 352.32, down 4.33. The Choice/Select spread is 9.24.
- Lean beef is struggling against imports.
- Cutter cow cutout: 294.65, down 0.66.
Slaughter and carcass data
- Thursday slaughter was 110,000 head versus 114,270 a year ago. Week-to-date is 430,000 versus 463,573 last year, about 7% lower.
- The prior full week was 543,000 head, only 14,000 below last year. Plant utilization is improving, and packer margins have been positive since July.
- Carcass weights are 962 lbs, down 3 lbs on the week and 12 lbs above last year. Quality grade is 87.5%.
- Carcass weights appear to be topping out. Dr. Peel notes the steer weight gain over last year is only 7 lbs, the smallest since February 2024.
Feeder and stocker markets
- Oklahoma City: yearling feeders were 4-12 lower, and sixty-day weaned cattle were sharply lower. Calves were 10-20 lower, some 30 lower.
- OKC West: feeder steers were 10-20 lower, with some 30 lower. Steers at 450-550 lbs were $20 higher.
- Mexican feeders crossing at Douglas and Santa Teresa were $15-20 lower on Tuesday. Prices are being repriced, but demand is described as moderate.
- Weaned versus unweaned calf spreads are widening.
- Many stocker operators are moving to heavier cattle (550-650 lbs) because 400 lb calves are scarce, costly and carry health risk.
Other markets
- Lean hogs hit contract lows. December finished at 55.10, down 2.45.
- Dec corn: 4.40, down 4.25 cents. Dec crude oil: 90.99, up 2.87.
- Equities fell hard: DJIA down 1,857, S&P 500 down 335, Nasdaq down 1,421.
- Traders cite softer cash, lower cutout values and heavier carcass weights as the pressure points.
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3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS
1) Futures and cash slide extends, with a broader risk-off tone.
Futures have declined eight sessions in a row on weak cash, lower cutout values and heavy northern cattle. A sharp equity selloff on Thursday adds a macro overlay. Uncertainty over demand for high-priced beef is also cited. Reuters analysts say the cash/futures causation debate (which came first) doesn't matter much for now, because both are lower. The positive offset is that heavy-cattle numbers are showing early signs of cleaning up, with carcass weights and quality grade both dipping.
2) New World screwworm cases accelerate to 113.
APHIS confirmed 113 cases, up from 71 a week ago and 61 the week before. That includes 111 in domestic animals and 2 in wildlife, and 55 domestic cases remain active. November already has 24 domestic cases four days in, against 36 for all of October. New detections include cattle in Otero County, NM and Starr County, TX. Arizona's first case, a ranch dog in Cochise County, was confirmed Oct. 28 with a 20 km infested zone and sterile-fly releases. Border crossings at Douglas, Santa Teresa and Columbus are open, and Nogales is slated for Nov. 30, conditional on animal-health conditions. More detections could delay reopenings, tighten movement restrictions and raise inspection costs. Current reports do not show screwworm causing the price selloff.
3) Feeder and replacement markets are weakening against record-low placements.
September feedlot placements were a record low for the month, down 12.1% from last year. Cattle are staying on feed longer, and the September marketings rate hit a record low of 14.0%. Feeder and stocker marketings for the week ending Oct. 24 were 3.7% above the 3-year average. Feedlot "rightsizing" has begun, and some closures are expected through next year. Wall Street-owned yards are described as unfriendly to negative returns. Winter grazing is abundant, but deferred futures offer little incentive for buyers to fill it. On the supply side, heifer retention is rising only modestly, so herd growth into 2027 remains limited.
Also noted
- Politics and trade: Democrats won control of Congress in the midterms, including upsets in Texas, Kansas and Iowa. Trump says a Canada trade deal is near, while Carney says work remains.
- Exports: weekly beef export sales were 11,000 tons, 29% below the four-week average, though shipments improved to 13,400 tons. September beef export value rose 8% to $712.4M, led by Taiwan and South Korea. Exports to China remain minimal.
- Cold storage: beef stocks on Sept. 30 were down 1% from last year.
- Price reporting: USDA-AMS began publishing a new regional negotiated cash report combining Kansas, Colorado, and Texas-Oklahoma-New Mexico. Negotiated cash trade in the Kansas and Texas-Oklahoma-New Mexico areas has been too thin to publish for months.
- Processing capacity: USDA is investing $1.1M in six Illinois beef processors under MPPEP Phase 4.
- Weather: drought covers 36.8% of the U.S., down from 41.4% a week earlier. The Southwest and Texas improved sharply. The Southeast worsened, with 96% of Arkansas beef cows in drought and 77% of Mississippi beef cows in severe drought or worse. That means earlier hay feeding and possible deeper culling.
- Winter wheat: 44% good to excellent.
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November 6, 2026
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
1. MARKET SENTIMENT: BEARISH (3 out of 10)
Cattle futures have fallen eight straight sessions, and cash trade is $7-15 lower on the week. Feeder markets are repricing sharply lower. A broad equity selloff and a worsening screwworm picture add to the pressure. Tight supplies and healthy packer margins keep this from being a deeper bearish call.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
2. KEY PRICE TRENDS
Futures (Thursday, Nov. 5 settlements)
- December live cattle: 214.40, down 3.50. This is the lowest since early September and the eighth straight lower close.
- February live cattle: 217.62, down 3.20. April: 220.42, down 2.78.
- November feeders: 325.05, down 6.97. January feeders: 320.32, down 6.40, the lowest since late September.
- CME Feeder Index: 342.76, down 3.82. It is well off the June 26 record of 381.86.
- TCR's Cattle Market Index fell 3.73% on the day and 10.31% over 10 days.
Cash fed cattle
- South Central: $218 live, down $7 from last week.
- Nebraska: $214-216 live, mostly $214 (TCR). Reuters brokers cited $217 in Nebraska and $216 in Iowa, down about $7.
- Dressed trade: $335-340 in the north.
- Western Cornbelt: $210-214.50 live.
- Heavy northern cattle are under the most pressure. Mud and cold hurt feedlot performance, and corn harvest is wrapping up (74% complete), so more heavy cattle are being marketed.
Boxed beef
- Choice: 361.56, down 0.94. Select: 352.32, down 4.33. The Choice/Select spread is 9.24.
- Lean beef is struggling against imports.
- Cutter cow cutout: 294.65, down 0.66.
Slaughter and carcass data
- Thursday slaughter was 110,000 head versus 114,270 a year ago. Week-to-date is 430,000 versus 463,573 last year, about 7% lower.
- The prior full week was 543,000 head, only 14,000 below last year. Plant utilization is improving, and packer margins have been positive since July.
- Carcass weights are 962 lbs, down 3 lbs on the week and 12 lbs above last year. Quality grade is 87.5%.
- Carcass weights appear to be topping out. Dr. Peel notes the steer weight gain over last year is only 7 lbs, the smallest since February 2024.
Feeder and stocker markets
- Oklahoma City: yearling feeders were 4-12 lower, and sixty-day weaned cattle were sharply lower. Calves were 10-20 lower, some 30 lower.
- OKC West: feeder steers were 10-20 lower, with some 30 lower. Steers at 450-550 lbs were $20 higher.
- Mexican feeders crossing at Douglas and Santa Teresa were $15-20 lower on Tuesday. Prices are being repriced, but demand is described as moderate.
- Weaned versus unweaned calf spreads are widening.
- Many stocker operators are moving to heavier cattle (550-650 lbs) because 400 lb calves are scarce, costly and carry health risk.
Other markets
- Lean hogs hit contract lows. December finished at 55.10, down 2.45.
- Dec corn: 4.40, down 4.25 cents. Dec crude oil: 90.99, up 2.87.
- Equities fell hard: DJIA down 1,857, S&P 500 down 335, Nasdaq down 1,421.
- Traders cite softer cash, lower cutout values and heavier carcass weights as the pressure points.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS
1) Futures and cash slide extends, with a broader risk-off tone.
Futures have declined eight sessions in a row on weak cash, lower cutout values and heavy northern cattle. A sharp equity selloff on Thursday adds a macro overlay. Uncertainty over demand for high-priced beef is also cited. Reuters analysts say the cash/futures causation debate (which came first) doesn't matter much for now, because both are lower. The positive offset is that heavy-cattle numbers are showing early signs of cleaning up, with carcass weights and quality grade both dipping.
2) New World screwworm cases accelerate to 113.
APHIS confirmed 113 cases, up from 71 a week ago and 61 the week before. That includes 111 in domestic animals and 2 in wildlife, and 55 domestic cases remain active. November already has 24 domestic cases four days in, against 36 for all of October. New detections include cattle in Otero County, NM and Starr County, TX. Arizona's first case, a ranch dog in Cochise County, was confirmed Oct. 28 with a 20 km infested zone and sterile-fly releases. Border crossings at Douglas, Santa Teresa and Columbus are open, and Nogales is slated for Nov. 30, conditional on animal-health conditions. More detections could delay reopenings, tighten movement restrictions and raise inspection costs. Current reports do not show screwworm causing the price selloff.
3) Feeder and replacement markets are weakening against record-low placements.
September feedlot placements were a record low for the month, down 12.1% from last year. Cattle are staying on feed longer, and the September marketings rate hit a record low of 14.0%. Feeder and stocker marketings for the week ending Oct. 24 were 3.7% above the 3-year average. Feedlot "rightsizing" has begun, and some closures are expected through next year. Wall Street-owned yards are described as unfriendly to negative returns. Winter grazing is abundant, but deferred futures offer little incentive for buyers to fill it. On the supply side, heifer retention is rising only modestly, so herd growth into 2027 remains limited.
Also noted
- Politics and trade: Democrats won control of Congress in the midterms, including upsets in Texas, Kansas and Iowa. Trump says a Canada trade deal is near, while Carney says work remains.
- Exports: weekly beef export sales were 11,000 tons, 29% below the four-week average, though shipments improved to 13,400 tons. September beef export value rose 8% to $712.4M, led by Taiwan and South Korea. Exports to China remain minimal.
- Cold storage: beef stocks on Sept. 30 were down 1% from last year.
- Price reporting: USDA-AMS began publishing a new regional negotiated cash report combining Kansas, Colorado, and Texas-Oklahoma-New Mexico. Negotiated cash trade in the Kansas and Texas-Oklahoma-New Mexico areas has been too thin to publish for months.
- Processing capacity: USDA is investing $1.1M in six Illinois beef processors under MPPEP Phase 4.
- Weather: drought covers 36.8% of the U.S., down from 41.4% a week earlier. The Southwest and Texas improved sharply. The Southeast worsened, with 96% of Arkansas beef cows in drought and 77% of Mississippi beef cows in severe drought or worse. That means earlier hay feeding and possible deeper culling.
- Winter wheat: 44% good to excellent.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
For more detailed information or specific market data, please contact your local extension office or market analyst.