DAILY CATTLE MARKET BRIEFING
November 10, 2026
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
1. MARKET SENTIMENT: BEARISH (3 out of 10)
Last week ended in a rout in both cash and futures. December live cattle fell for nine straight sessions to an 11-month low. Replacement markets are sharply lower, and packers are posting their best margins in years. Tight long-term supplies and the Tyson/Allied Beef news keep the structural picture from being outright bleak. A technical bounce is possible, but sellers are not yet in control.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
2. KEY PRICE TRENDS
Fed cattle (cash)
- Cash prices fell as much as $11/cwt last week, to about $212 in Iowa and $213 in Nebraska (CME/Reuters).
- Northern live sales ranged from $208 to $218, with weight the main price determinant. Dressed trade was $330 to $340.
- Kansas and Texas traded at $218, and the four-state mandatory report confirmed those levels.
- The north continues to lag the south, where sellers have more bargaining power and weights better match buyer demand.
Futures
- December live cattle closed at 214.050, down 0.35. That is the lowest level since December 2, after nine consecutive down sessions.
- January feeder cattle closed at 318.375, down 1.95. That is the lowest since September 18.
- December lean hogs hit a contract low of 53.175 before closing at 53.525. Hogs are down about one-third since late July on weak domestic and export demand. September pork exports fell 7% by volume and 14% by value.
Packer margins and slaughter
- Weekly slaughter was 534,000 head, down 9,000 from the prior week and 35,000 below last year.
- Box prices appear balanced at 530,000 to 540,000 head per week. Packers are holding beef prices in check while pressuring cash, and processors have stayed profitable since July.
- Carcass weights were 962 lb, down 3 lb from the prior week but 12 lb above last year. Quality grade was 87.5% (down 0.4 points), still near historic highs.
- Lean beef values are struggling against imports, and cow slaughter is rising seasonally but remains below last year.
Replacement cattle
- Video and live auction prices dropped sharply, and many lots were passed out (POed) and will reappear on future sales.
- Buyers say the declines are still not enough to offset poor projected margins.
- Pasture gain rates that once reached $1/lb including care are being offered at half that in some cases. Many southern Plains wheat fields will likely go ungrazed and be harvested for grain instead.
- Stockers are shifting toward heavier 550-650 lb cattle, and small lots of 400 lb calves are costly and risky on health.
- The weaned vs. unweaned calf spread is widening, with $50/cwt cited as large but sometimes justified.
- Feeder and stocker marketings for the week ending 10/24 were 3.7% above the 3-year average.
- Feedlot "rightsizing" has begun, with more yard closures expected through next year.
Grains and inputs
- Corn drifted lower while basis strengthened, near +$1.10 in Guymon, OK against December.
- Corn harvest is 74% complete, up from 60% a week earlier.
- Winter wheat is rated 44% good to excellent.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS
1) Tyson and Allied Beef announce a partnership and restart the Amarillo second shift
- Tyson will partner with Allied Beef, a rancher consortium in Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico and other states. Terms were not disclosed.
- The second shift at Amarillo is expected to be fully operational by summer 2027. Tyson cut to one shift in August, affecting about 1,700 workers.
- The deal aims at a more direct, "economically sustainable" supply model with better scheduling and plant utilization. One analyst said it likely reflects the resumption of Mexican feeder imports, which USDA has allowed again.
- Tyson cut its profit forecast twice in the past month and reports fourth-quarter results next Monday, November 16.
- Why it matters: Packer capacity is being rebuilt around secured supply. That is supportive for demand over time, but it also suggests packers are working to lock up cattle outside the cash market.
2) The cash and futures rout meets margin pressure
- Lenders are rolling out an AI "mark to market" model and are expected to call cattle owners this week for additional margin.
- The open question is whether excess numbers and heavy weights in the north get cleaned up. Some sellers are lightening heavy cattle ahead of El Niño winter forecasts.
- Why it matters: Forced selling could extend weakness near term. If enough owners hold out, a correction bounce is also plausible.
3) New World screwworm cases keep climbing
- USDA's dashboard showed total confirmed detections rising to 113 as of November 3, from 71 a week earlier. That includes the first Arizona case.
- Beef Magazine's October recap counted 114 U.S. livestock cases and two wildlife cases since June 3, with 33 active cases in Texas, New Mexico and Arizona at month-end.
- Counting methods differ between sources, but the trend is up. Southwest New Mexico is the hotspot, and the state created regional infested zones covering several counties.
- Cooler weather is expected to slow northward movement. Officials report no link to the reopened Mexican feeder cattle imports.
- Why it matters: Movement restrictions, inspections and any import policy reversal are market risks.
Also noted
- A GAO report found USDA gave no analysis of potential harms from its reorganization. A federal judge blocked the reorganization in October, and the USDA workforce is down about 20% since December 2024. Farmers are concerned about thinner staffing at county offices.
- Heifer retention is rising only modestly. Heifer slaughter is down over 11% year over year, but about 200,000 or more replacement heifers are needed next year just to maintain the herd. Beef cow culling is projected at a record-low 7.35% in 2026. Herd growth in 2027 looks limited, per Derrell Peel of Oklahoma State.
- Drought coverage fell to 36.8% of the U.S. (43.4% of the lower 48) as of November 3. The Southwest, Texas and Plains improved, while the Southeast worsened. In Arkansas, 96% of beef cows are in drought, which could force deeper culling and lower heifer retention in the Southeast.
- The election shifted control of Congress. Analysts say it is too early to gauge the beef industry impact.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
4. OUTLOOK
- Near term (this week): Expect a partial correction after last week's selloff if enough cattle owners hold out for higher bids. Packers have a strong record of capping rallies and will use slaughter pacing to keep margins fat. Treat any bounce cautiously until cash trade confirms it.
- Margin and liquidity risk: Be ready for lender calls and avoid forced liquidation into a weak tape. Review hedge positions and margin capacity.
- Northern vs. southern feeders: Heavier northern cattle are discounted. Get cattle sold at appropriate weights, since that is where the price spread is widening.
- Stockers and cow-calf: Poor margin projections mean many wheat pastures will sit idle, so weaned, health-documented calves and heavier feeders carry the better premiums. Southeast producers should look into USDA's Livestock Forage Disaster Program and plan for early hay feeding.
- Structural backdrop: Record-low cow culling, slow heifer retention and tight supplies still point to a long-term supportive supply picture, but not a quick rebound.
- Watch list:
- Tuesday's USDA weighted-average price and Comprehensive Fed Cattle reports.
- Tyson's earnings on November 16.
- Screwworm case counts, and any change in the Mexican import status.
- Packer margins and weekly slaughter staying in the 530,000 to 540,000 range.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Quick international note: USDA's FAS projects the EU dairy herd to shrink about 1% in 2027, to 18.8 million cows, with milk output down 0.3%. Environmental rules in the Netherlands and Denmark are accelerating the cuts.
November 10, 2026
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
1. MARKET SENTIMENT: BEARISH (3 out of 10)
Last week ended in a rout in both cash and futures. December live cattle fell for nine straight sessions to an 11-month low. Replacement markets are sharply lower, and packers are posting their best margins in years. Tight long-term supplies and the Tyson/Allied Beef news keep the structural picture from being outright bleak. A technical bounce is possible, but sellers are not yet in control.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
2. KEY PRICE TRENDS
Fed cattle (cash)
- Cash prices fell as much as $11/cwt last week, to about $212 in Iowa and $213 in Nebraska (CME/Reuters).
- Northern live sales ranged from $208 to $218, with weight the main price determinant. Dressed trade was $330 to $340.
- Kansas and Texas traded at $218, and the four-state mandatory report confirmed those levels.
- The north continues to lag the south, where sellers have more bargaining power and weights better match buyer demand.
Futures
- December live cattle closed at 214.050, down 0.35. That is the lowest level since December 2, after nine consecutive down sessions.
- January feeder cattle closed at 318.375, down 1.95. That is the lowest since September 18.
- December lean hogs hit a contract low of 53.175 before closing at 53.525. Hogs are down about one-third since late July on weak domestic and export demand. September pork exports fell 7% by volume and 14% by value.
Packer margins and slaughter
- Weekly slaughter was 534,000 head, down 9,000 from the prior week and 35,000 below last year.
- Box prices appear balanced at 530,000 to 540,000 head per week. Packers are holding beef prices in check while pressuring cash, and processors have stayed profitable since July.
- Carcass weights were 962 lb, down 3 lb from the prior week but 12 lb above last year. Quality grade was 87.5% (down 0.4 points), still near historic highs.
- Lean beef values are struggling against imports, and cow slaughter is rising seasonally but remains below last year.
Replacement cattle
- Video and live auction prices dropped sharply, and many lots were passed out (POed) and will reappear on future sales.
- Buyers say the declines are still not enough to offset poor projected margins.
- Pasture gain rates that once reached $1/lb including care are being offered at half that in some cases. Many southern Plains wheat fields will likely go ungrazed and be harvested for grain instead.
- Stockers are shifting toward heavier 550-650 lb cattle, and small lots of 400 lb calves are costly and risky on health.
- The weaned vs. unweaned calf spread is widening, with $50/cwt cited as large but sometimes justified.
- Feeder and stocker marketings for the week ending 10/24 were 3.7% above the 3-year average.
- Feedlot "rightsizing" has begun, with more yard closures expected through next year.
Grains and inputs
- Corn drifted lower while basis strengthened, near +$1.10 in Guymon, OK against December.
- Corn harvest is 74% complete, up from 60% a week earlier.
- Winter wheat is rated 44% good to excellent.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
3. TOP 3 NEW DEVELOPMENTS
1) Tyson and Allied Beef announce a partnership and restart the Amarillo second shift
- Tyson will partner with Allied Beef, a rancher consortium in Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico and other states. Terms were not disclosed.
- The second shift at Amarillo is expected to be fully operational by summer 2027. Tyson cut to one shift in August, affecting about 1,700 workers.
- The deal aims at a more direct, "economically sustainable" supply model with better scheduling and plant utilization. One analyst said it likely reflects the resumption of Mexican feeder imports, which USDA has allowed again.
- Tyson cut its profit forecast twice in the past month and reports fourth-quarter results next Monday, November 16.
- Why it matters: Packer capacity is being rebuilt around secured supply. That is supportive for demand over time, but it also suggests packers are working to lock up cattle outside the cash market.
2) The cash and futures rout meets margin pressure
- Lenders are rolling out an AI "mark to market" model and are expected to call cattle owners this week for additional margin.
- The open question is whether excess numbers and heavy weights in the north get cleaned up. Some sellers are lightening heavy cattle ahead of El Niño winter forecasts.
- Why it matters: Forced selling could extend weakness near term. If enough owners hold out, a correction bounce is also plausible.
3) New World screwworm cases keep climbing
- USDA's dashboard showed total confirmed detections rising to 113 as of November 3, from 71 a week earlier. That includes the first Arizona case.
- Beef Magazine's October recap counted 114 U.S. livestock cases and two wildlife cases since June 3, with 33 active cases in Texas, New Mexico and Arizona at month-end.
- Counting methods differ between sources, but the trend is up. Southwest New Mexico is the hotspot, and the state created regional infested zones covering several counties.
- Cooler weather is expected to slow northward movement. Officials report no link to the reopened Mexican feeder cattle imports.
- Why it matters: Movement restrictions, inspections and any import policy reversal are market risks.
Also noted
- A GAO report found USDA gave no analysis of potential harms from its reorganization. A federal judge blocked the reorganization in October, and the USDA workforce is down about 20% since December 2024. Farmers are concerned about thinner staffing at county offices.
- Heifer retention is rising only modestly. Heifer slaughter is down over 11% year over year, but about 200,000 or more replacement heifers are needed next year just to maintain the herd. Beef cow culling is projected at a record-low 7.35% in 2026. Herd growth in 2027 looks limited, per Derrell Peel of Oklahoma State.
- Drought coverage fell to 36.8% of the U.S. (43.4% of the lower 48) as of November 3. The Southwest, Texas and Plains improved, while the Southeast worsened. In Arkansas, 96% of beef cows are in drought, which could force deeper culling and lower heifer retention in the Southeast.
- The election shifted control of Congress. Analysts say it is too early to gauge the beef industry impact.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
4. OUTLOOK
- Near term (this week): Expect a partial correction after last week's selloff if enough cattle owners hold out for higher bids. Packers have a strong record of capping rallies and will use slaughter pacing to keep margins fat. Treat any bounce cautiously until cash trade confirms it.
- Margin and liquidity risk: Be ready for lender calls and avoid forced liquidation into a weak tape. Review hedge positions and margin capacity.
- Northern vs. southern feeders: Heavier northern cattle are discounted. Get cattle sold at appropriate weights, since that is where the price spread is widening.
- Stockers and cow-calf: Poor margin projections mean many wheat pastures will sit idle, so weaned, health-documented calves and heavier feeders carry the better premiums. Southeast producers should look into USDA's Livestock Forage Disaster Program and plan for early hay feeding.
- Structural backdrop: Record-low cow culling, slow heifer retention and tight supplies still point to a long-term supportive supply picture, but not a quick rebound.
- Watch list:
- Tuesday's USDA weighted-average price and Comprehensive Fed Cattle reports.
- Tyson's earnings on November 16.
- Screwworm case counts, and any change in the Mexican import status.
- Packer margins and weekly slaughter staying in the 530,000 to 540,000 range.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Quick international note: USDA's FAS projects the EU dairy herd to shrink about 1% in 2027, to 18.8 million cows, with milk output down 0.3%. Environmental rules in the Netherlands and Denmark are accelerating the cuts.
For more detailed information or specific market data, please contact your local extension office or market analyst.